MVN - A Boston Red Sox blog | Analyzing the Olde Towne Team since 2003
Fire Brand of the American League
5/9: We can’t lose to a guy named Boof can we?
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Boston Red Sox (23-14) @ Minnesota Twins (17-16) |
GAME NOTES:
The Red Sox storm into Minnesota coming off a series win in Detroit having won eight of their last ten games. The bats are clicking, none hotter than Kevin Youkilis, as Jon Lester takes the hill having given up only five hits and one run over fourteen innings in his last two outings. The Red Sox took last years’ three game set in Minnesota, winning two of three, but this is a new look Twins team. Gone are Torri Hunter and Johan Santana, but new faces like speedy Carlos Gomez (13 SB) and old foes Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau are hungry to knock the Sox off.
TRIVIA: Yay for bad OBP
First, the previous trivia: Tom A was right with his answer of Williamsburg to the question of: “The bullpens at Fenway Park weren’t always there, having been added after the original park opened. Sportswriters and fans alike assigned a name to the bullpens. What was the name, and why was it called that?”
He says it was in response to Ted Williams parking homers. Sean O said it was in response to “Ruthville” — the close right-field porch in Yankee Stadium. The answer, as I have always heard it, is that it was called Williamsburg because the Red Sox wanted to get Ted Williams more home-runs, so they put the bullpens there.
I’m sure that the pen would eventually have moved to add more seats, but that’s the reason, not Tom’s answer of it’s because of the homers Ted sent there — it was TO get the homers Ted sent there. Nevertheless, I’ll award Tom the winning entry as no one answered the why question correctly — unless my version is incorrect. Tom, please e-mail me the new trivia question whenever you please. (And Jc, e-mail the new poll question on Monday as well. Thanks.)
The new trivia question will run until Monday. Here it is: Who is the only Red Sox player to amass at least 100 RBI while having an OBP lower than .300? (Name is all that is required, but feel free to submit other information such as year, stat line, etc. so we can all marvel at this.) Winner gets to write the “GAME NOTES” section of the May 13th game thread.
HONOR CODE: Don’t use a search engine. Other than that, it’s up for grabs.
Jed Lowrie is one of Boston's hot prospects - Dean Lima (HardballWarriors.com)
Prospect Update
The Red Sox are positioning themselves to be the favorite in the American League once again. The Sox have been led by a promising rotation that posted a 1.69 ERA in 10 starts up until Wednesday (36 hits in 69+ innings), a lineup beginning to hit its stride led by the resurgent David Ortiz and scalding hot Kevin Youkilis, and a bullpen that will only improve with the additions of Craig Hansen and Justin Masterson down the stretch run. The Red Sox were just a Julio Lugo error away from a four-game sweep in Detroit and now head to Minnesota and Baltimore to finish up a long road trip. At 23-14 through 37 games, I feel quite comfortable with the current structure of the Red Sox.
I figured we’d take a break from discussion over Dice-K’s control, or when Buchholz will be sent to Pawtucket, or the Crisp/Ellsbury situation and if it will ever be resolved…and take a look at the young kids down on the farm in the Red Sox minor league system. Dave and Mike do a tremendous job on Sox on Deck here at MVN and should be daily reading material to get diehards caught up with the minor leaguers. For me, I needed to take an in-depth look at how our top prospects are faring in the minors, so really this article is for me as much as anyone else.
While Theo Epstein and Co. have spent their fair share on free agents and lengthy contracts, the organization has undeniably taken great strides to build a top farm system in the majors. They’ve utilized their financial prowess to sign top-notch prospects to large signing bonuses and their scouting department is lauded around baseball as the cream of the crop, a group that helped draft, mold and send Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jonathan Papelbon, Manny Delcarmen, Clay Buchholz, Jon Lester and many more (don’t forget Hanley Ramirez) to playing key roles for the defending champs. Names like Michael Bowden, Justin Masterson, Ryan Kalish and Lars Anderson look to make the next impact. Let’s examine how some top prospects are faring a month into the season.
1 .Justin Masterson, SP, Portland
Masterson got the call to make an emergency spot start against the Angels at Fenway earlier this year and shone on the big stage, surrendering just two hits and four walks in six impressive innings against a contender. Masterson has drawn Derek Lowe comparisons due to his phenomenally heavy sinker that drops off the table against lefties and righties and normally sits around 89-92 MPH, a truly plus pitch. While I doubt Masterson ever becomes a #1 starter, his sinkerball can produce ground balls outs much like Chien-Ming Wang has been doing for the Yankees over the course of his young career. Some even suggest he projects as a dominating reliever rather than a starter due to his inability to pitch very deep into games.
| Boston Red Sox’ reliever Craig Hansen was a living, breathing example of a person with sleep apnea and which - despite his pleas to the contrary - had to have had an effect on his career. Continue reading The New Craig Hansen |
Unfortunately, Masterson hasn’t found quite the same success in Portland as his four starts prior to the nod against LA. From April 3-19, Masterson tossed 19 innings giving up 14 hits, a 23/5 K/BB and only two runs allowed. The two starts following his debut, it’s been a different story: 8.2 IP, 9 H, 8 ER, 5 BB, 11 K. One poster on SoSH remarked that Masterson cruised through five innings in his previous start before becoming visibly fatigued in the sixth inning. Still, an overall 3.25 ERA with 34 K in 27 IP and a remarkable GB/FB ratio (3.18) lends me to believe Masterson plays a major role in the Red Sox bullpen later this season.
2. Michael Bowden, SP, Portland
While Masterson has slumped his last two outings, Michael Bowden is turning it on in Portland. Bowden certainly has the ceiling to be a #2 arm in the majors for the Red Sox, but failed to produce any outstanding numbers in Portland in 2007 to suggest he’d reach that plateau. His arsenal of four pitches is certainly impressive, though: A mid-90s four seam fastball, a 12-6 breaking curve, a circle changeup and a tight slider. The key for Bowden is keeping his four seamer down in the zone with the heavy sinking movement as it produces ground balls.
As I said, Bowden’s last three outings have been tremendous: 18.2 IP, 5 H, 1 BB, 9 K, which is a definite improvement from his prior four starts in which he didn’t make it out of the fifth inning and an April 21 start that concluded with a 4.2 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 5 K line. With just over one strikeout per inning and only 26 hits surrendered in 37 innings, Bowden may be making his way up to a September call-up. Still, the young right-hander must show consistency over a long period of time before he is considered, and will most likely make his first appearance in 2009 after some time in Pawtucket.
3. Lars Anderson, 1B, Lancaster
Of any Red Sox prospect, Anderson may have the highest ceiling. A large and dynamic slugger with a smooth upper-cut swing and power to all fields, Anderson looks like a young superstar to many scouts. Lars is a prime example of Theo using his financial capabilities to sign a player later in the draft that may have gone 15 rounds earlier, succumbing to Anderson’s bonus demands. While the scouts suggest Anderson has the tools, his numbers have not been outwardly sensational. In 458 AB last year at single-A Greenville, Anderson managed just a .828 OPS while homering only 10 times in 458 AB with a 112/71 K/BB ratio. He looks to put up more impressive totals in hitter-friendly Lancaster, and is off to a decent start: .840 OPS, 5 HR, 29/20 K/BB, 57 TB in 121 AB.
4. Ryan Kalish, OF, Greenville
A ninth round pick in 2006, Ryan Kalish’s name began to reach discussions in the Johan Santana trade talks over the winters, and many Red Sox fans were cautious about parting with Kalish, a talented, quick outfield prospect that compiled a 1.011 OPS for single-A Lowell in 87 AB last season. Kalish projects to be in a leadoff hitter type mold featuring improving plate discipline and power potential. Kalish could take over in right field once J.D. Drew’s contract expires and won’t give up much on defense. At just 20 years old, Kalish has plus range and a plus throwing arm.
In 2008, Kalish may be feeling lingering effects from a nagging wrist injury he suffered last season. In 45 AB, he’s off to a .267/.393/.356 start with just two XBH. Expect his numbers to improve quickly once he returns to 100% and quickly vault up the Red Sox prospect rankings.
5. Josh Reddick, OF, Lancaster
Speaking of quickly leaping up prospect rankings, Josh Reddick continues to compile outstanding statistics at all levels. Along with Kalish, Reddick projects as a reliable defensive corner outfielder with excellent arm strength and accuracy. While the power has yet to develop and the frame yet to fill out, Reddick scorches line drives all over the diamond, evident by his .306 AVG in Greenville last season followed by a .340 this season before a promotion. Reddick is now taking Lancaster by storm. He tallied a three-hit performance on May 2 and now stands at .314/.397/.491 in 14 games.
6. Daniel Bard, RP, Greenville
Has Bard finally found a niche as a lights out reliever? Bard has been a complete mystery for the Red Sox since being drafted in the first round in 2006 out of North Carolina where he starred as Andrew Miller’s teammate (don’t throw up, but we drafted him ahead of Chamberlain). In 2007 at Greenville and Lancaster, Bard was a complete train wreck, finishing with 75 IP, 78 H, 78 BB, 48 K and an ERA in the mid-7’s. Once looking like a lost cause, Bard has turned it around in a big way in 2008, just surrendering his first two earned runs of the season May 7. In 24 IP at Greenville, Bard has given up just 12 hits, 1 HR and struck out 37 hitters. What an absolutely mind-boggling turnaround. His delivery change has been key- a more over-the-top motion, aiding a high-90s fastball, a high-70s curveball and other developing secondary pitches. He could be a fixture in the Red Sox bullpen in a few years.
Also, keep an eye on Mark Wagner (.320/.395/.453) and George Kottaras (.256/.362/.504) to contend for a backup spot in 2009.
Again, for constant updates from around the minor league system, visit Sox on Deck.
Beckett the Show Stopper
There is a reason you are called an ace, a number one starter, a show stopper, the make it stop bleeding guy, etc. Josh Beckett went even further tonight striking out Curtis Granderson four times (eight total), and only gave up one run to the best offense in the league (on paper that is).
Kevin Youkilis smacked his seventh homerun of the season off of the helpless “ace” Justin Verlander as Boston triumphed 5-1. Verlander suffered his sixth loss of the season while Beckett achieved a milestone by striking out Brandon Inge for 1,000 strikeouts in his career.
Star of the Game: You would be an idiot if:
You did not think it was Beckett. Pitching seven innings saves the bullpen. Pitching seven innings allowing only one run to score helps Boston win the game. Not only did he only allow one run, but he also just simply dominated Detroit in tonight’s contest.
Preview of Next Game: at Minnesota
Jon Lester, we can all agree, needs to be more consistent. Let’s see how he follows up his last performance against Boof Bonser and the Twins. Bonser has been pretty good this season so expect a good pitching matchup tomorrow.
5/8: I’ll see your Verlander and raise you a Beckett…
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Boston Red Sox (22-14) @ Detroit Tigers (15-20) |
GAME NOTES:
The Red Sox (read: Julio Lugo) coughed one up last night. There’s no better time for the ace to take the hill than after a tough loss. The name Justin Verlander usually strikes fear into opponents’ hearts. This season however, the picture for Tigers fans, hasn’t been so rosy. A 6.28 ERA has lead to a horrific 1-5 start. But he’s got the talent and I wouldn’t put it past him figuring it all out tonight for this marquis match up. And, oh yeah, Lugo’s in the lineup tonight….any chance he could redeem himself?
Julian Tavarez about to be traded?
The Colorado Rockies have continued to talk with the Red Sox about acquiring Julian Tavarez to bolster their stumbling rotation, which has seen Mark Redman, Ubaldo Jiminez and Franklin Morales not perform up to expectations. Rockies GM Dan O’Dowd signed Tavarez to the Cleveland Indians when Tavarez was a teenager and wants him in the fold.
It’s unknown who the Sox would get in return (a prospect?) but the fact that dialogue continues to happen and there is an ability for the Sox to move him makes me think that this trade is inevitable. I’ll put money on Tavarez being traded to make room for Bartolo Colon. Earlier this month, I opined that we needed to cut Tavarez. Trading him works, too.
Papelbon deserves to be a little frustrated
I’ll say it again….check swing, error, sacrifice, ground ball, broken bat flare. (hat tip Sox & Dawgs)
Dicey Daisuke
I am still kind of reeling from the outing that Daisuke Matsuzaka put forth this week in Detroit. Eight walks!!! Matsuzaka only threw 55% of his 109 pitches for strikes in what was an incredibly frustrating, yet oddly effective outing (at least in terms of net results).
With Daisuke, I never know where to turn to analyze his performance. I don’t necessarily feel like I have a clear understanding of his philosophy on the mound, nor do I know at this point which pitches he feels comfortable with in what situations. He’s got such an arsenal, it makes him hard to come to grips with. In a sense, that same arsenal must make it hard to get and keep a feel for any given pitch in any given outing.
I recently stumbled on another fun PITCHf/x tool, this time courtesy of SOSH and Brooksbaseball.net. So I decided to take a look at all the fun charts and graphs and see what they could tell me about any differences between Daisuke’s last two starts.
4/30 - 7 IP, 0 ER, 2H, 2 BB, 4 K (PITCHf/x)
5/5 - 5 IP, 1 ER, 2H, 8 BB, 1 K (PITCHf/x)
What could possibly be so different from start to start to cause such wildness from Matsuzaka?
I want to preface this all by saying, what you are seeing here is really nothing more than a first take at looking at the data and my reactions. I don’t know as I pull these graphs, exactly where this exploration will lead us and if it will even end in an answer that satisfies us. But, part of the fun of the journey is the exploration itself…so here we go.
Lets start by looking at pitch type by speed over the course of the start:
OK…so you can click on the links to see the larger graphs for full glorious PITCHf/x graphing goodness. One quick point about the data, this is split by pitch type and was scored by two different people that categorize the raw data slightly differently. The bottom graph has three different versions of the fastball compared to only one on the top.
What do we see different here between the “good” and “bad” Daisuke? From my eye, it looks like “good” Daisuke had higher overall velocity and greater variation in the velocity of his pitches. “Bad” Daisuke’s speeds by pitch type seem to congregate closer in bunches.
You can see the overall results in terms of balls and strikes in the next set of graphs.
In Daisuke’s “good” outing, he threw 62% of his pitches for strikes with hitters swinging at nine of the forty-two balls he threw out of the zone (21.4%). In his “bad” outing he threw strikes 55% of the time and batters swung on pitches out of the zone only 14% of the forty-nine balls.
What does that tell us? In his good outing he was around the zone more and when he went out, people chased a little more often. In his bad outing, his lack of command didn’t incent batters to chase balls out of the zone.
While there is a TON of data here about spin and movement, my head is spinning trying to make sense of it. As often happens when my head spins, I decide instead to run from what is causing that spinning and search for something to make sense of.
In this case, variances in Daisuke’s release point on his pitches caught my attention.
If you look at the relative position of the clusters, there is a defanite difference in Matsuzaka’s release point and most noticeably on curve balls. His fastball(s) hover between 5 and 6 on the vertical axis and between -3 and -2 on the horizontal in both outings. However, his breaking pitches, shift between the outings. In his good outing, his breaking pitches cluster in release point with his fastballs. In his bad outing his release point is noticeably higher and to the right for most breaking pitches.
Not knowing more about where Daisuke’s natural release point is and if it should be consistent from pitch type to pitch type, all I can say is that there is a clear difference between the two outings in this regard. As you look through the spin and movement data, it looks like there are distinct differences in the ball having more downward spin away to right right handers in his bad outing.
What does this all tell us? Honestly, I am not at all sure. Believe it or not, I don’t have all the answers!
But one thing that I can say is that it will be interesting to see if patterns emerge as I expand this past these two games. My first pass through this new tool has absolutely given me reason to go ahead and learn more about what it can tell us.
For more on Paul and I’s thoughts on DiceK’s performance this week, hit up the 9:33 mark of this week’s podcast.
To complain about Julio Lugo after last night’s loss, may I direct you here or here or here.
Spoiled rally
Mike Lowell tied the game with a three run homerun in top of the seventh to make it 8-8. Dustin Pedroia drove home J.D. Drew on a single to left to take a 9-8 lead in the top of the eight, but the comeback fell short as Jonathan Papelbon did not hold onto the lead with the Tigers winning 10-9 in the bottom frame.
Placido Polanco’s RBI single to shallow center field would scratch home the game winning run breaking Boston’s 5 game winning streak. (Sorry Will Ferrell).
Goat of the Game: Paps
It is clearly understood why he is the goat here. Coughing up the lead after your team rallies back from a huge deficit denotes blame to be placed on Paps back.
Preview of Next Game: Beckett vs Verlander
I said it the other day in one of my posts that the Tigers would have to bring the lumber to win games. That happened tonight, but I do doubt that Beckett gives up more than 4 runs in this one because I think pitching against Verlander will get him a little pumped. Also, he knows we lost and used a lot of our pen tonight. My guess is Beckett goes 8 innings and gives up three runs. Two of which come on a blast from someone down in the lineup.
Put this one past us guys. There is plenty of baseball left to be played.
5/7: Don’t bust the mojo
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Boston Red Sox (22-13) @ Detroit Tigers (14-20) |
GAME NOTES:
The Red Sox look to continue to put the hammer down on the Tigers tonight as two youngsters square off against each other on the mound. Galarraga is a 26 year old right hander who was acquired from Texas over the off-season. The Tigers have been fortunate to get what they have out of Galarraga so far this season as he doesn’t project to be a dynamic big league starter. So far this year he has managed to pound the strike zone in four starts averaging six innings per for a team that isn’t too strong out of the bullpen. Clay Buchholz has only given up three runs in his last 19 1/3 innings and the Red Sox offense is clicking. You might even say, they are - STREAKING!!!!
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