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Random Thoughts

By Zach Hayes | January 12th, 2007

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Not much going on around the news in Boston or the baseball world this week, so instead I’ll give you some random thoughts floating around the noggin on this Thursday night:

- As I wrote about last month, I would vote for Mark McGwire in the Hall of Fame for a few reasons. One, steroid policy was not nearly as strict or frowned upon in the late 90s when McGwire supposedly took these steroids to help fuel his ride to the home run record. We may very well discover in the years that follow that the wide majority of players from that era were juicing and Mark will just be another face in the crowd. I actually don’t entirely blame McGwire for taking any form of steroids during that time. It may be a code of conduct violation, but the fact is, baseball just turned away from the issue back then for their sports return to success and many of Mark’s peers were experimenting with these steroids. They wouldn’t be caught, anyway. Plus, the man never failed a drug test. The whole process is a joke anyway, we should just let Gammons decide who’s in the Hall. Now who would be opposed to that?

- This may be far-fetched, but what about throwing Tim Wakefield into the bullpen to start the season and see what happens? Sure he’s finishing his career and wants to be a starter, but maybe Tito and management can convince the team-first Wakefield that the mix of the knuckleball in a weak bullpen will prove to be a valuable addition, at least temporarily. With the knuckle, Wake can make the transition easily and he has a lot of experience working as a closer or setup man. Tavarez, Snyder or Pineiro would then rotate as our #5 starter. I think it could be worth a shot.

- I’m very pleased with the current situation of the Red Sox farm system. While Theo has his faults, he continues to change the past habits of Sox ownership and value the farm system as a key to a winning future. Right now, Jacoby Ellsbury is our top prospect and could end up being another Johnny Damon at some point in his career. Clay Buccholz projects to be a #2 starter in the bigs by 2008 or 2009. I’ve heard nothing but glowing reviews over the progress of Michael Bowden and the filthy Daniel Bard this winter, as well. And we’ll likely see guys like Bryce Cox, George Kottaras and Edgar Martinez in the big leagues very soon. For a team with such a high payroll and a club that usually finishes near the top of the league, a top 15 (10?) farm system is something to be proud of.

- The best opening day lineup, in my opinion, is: 1) Lugo, 2) Youkilis, 3) Ortiz, 4) Ramirez, 5) Drew, 6) Lowell, 7) Varitek, 8) Crisp, 9) Pedroia. Now we won’t have to fuss over valuing speed or on- base at the top of the lineup because the Red Sox have both: the stolen base, first to third capabilities of Lugo leading off and the on- base prowess of Kevin Youkilis right in front of Ortiz and Manny. Youkilis and Lugo will easily be in the running for the top 10 in runs scored in 2007. After that, Drew might be the best #5 hitter in baseball when healthy. Lowell fits perfectly in the 6 spot with his doubles, Varitek should rebound in #7, and Crisp gets most of the pressure off of him at #8. Pedroia will struggle early with the bat, but I’ve heard glowing reports about his glove and hands at second base and give the Sox much more range than Mark Loretta.

- In order, the guys we need the most improvement from this season: 1) Josh Beckett, 2) Jason Varitek, 3) Coco Crisp. Beckett and Crisp experienced tumultuous first seasons in Boston, which is difficult for any player, and I have all the confidence in the world they will improve. If Beckett finds an effective breaking ball/changeup to go along with his power pitches, surely the HR rate and ERA will drop significantly. He’s also now a veteran in the AL. It was blatantly obvious Coco Crisp was hurt all of last season and could not swing or grip the bat properly with his thumb not fully healed. For 2007 it will be healed, and expect his numbers in Cleveland to translate next year in the #8 hole. What a luxury. And Jason Varitek will too be 100% for spring training after an assortment of injuries that was first reported in late April. I know all of the outstanding work and clubhouse leadership he brings to the team is invaluable, but his hitting numbers must improve for this contract to not be considered a minor mistake.

- What an unbelievable lift it will be to have the slugger, Mr. Wily Mo Pena, off the bench for the Sox in 2007. We can fit in the 24 year old at the first backup slot for first base and all three outfield positions on any given night. Many Red Sox fans feel that Pena is just about to hit his full potential as a player and blossom into a guy putting up monstrous numbers. They say putting him on the bench would be wasting talent and production. I tend to disagree. We all know over the course of the baseball season some injury will occur, some trade will happen, or something that all of a sudden catapults Pena into a starting gig. Plus, at the primary backup at four main positions, he’ll see his fair share of AB’s. There’s no doubt in my mind. His progression this season, hopefully with glimpses of a huge future, will be one of the things I’m most looking forward to this upcoming year.

- Folks, spring training is not that far away. I’m not sure of the exact date but it’s almost a month until pitchers and catchers report. Let’s try to get through the dog days of January with no real baseball news of significance with the Sox and look forward to a promising season ahead. If we can find some hint of a closer, either internally or externally (still time).

This entry was posted on Friday, January 12th, 2007 at 12:16 am and is filed under Mark McGwire, Tim Wakefield, Wily Mo Pena, Clay Buchholz, Minor Leagues, Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston Red Sox / Evan Brunell. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

17 Responses to “Random Thoughts”

Dave B says:

January 12th, 2007 at 1:31 am

Is Pena able to plan first with any reliability? If he can and he can get 300+ hits as the utility guy i will be very excited. It is a disservice to the team not have Pena in the lineup on, at least, a semi regular basis.

I also don’t feel like we NEED Crisp to improve. He just needs to be slightly above average as a hitting CF and i would be very happy. Last year he was basically middle of the pack in most categories for CF and a repeat would make me happy. Remember, this guy is our 8th hitter, a 700+ OPS and about a 5 RC would be great.

I love the idea of Wake in the pen. As much as i love the guy, i feel like he, in a way, cripples the team. Last year we had to give up on a good catcher because he couldn’t catch the knuckleball. Without Wake in the rotation i feel the Sox would have much more liberty at the catcher position. Put him in the pen and move Lester, Gabbard, or Snyder in as the 5th starter. Any one of those guys could put up average to above average #5 lines. Wakefield could solidify a sub par bullpen and turn it into an average pen.
RH says:

January 12th, 2007 at 1:51 am

If Wakefield moves to the ‘pen, there’s annoying little problem that comes with him…Mirabelli…

Wake in the ‘pen means that Mirabelli will be replacing Varitek in the late-innings, rather than starting every 5th day. I would much rather have Wake eating innings in the rotation than forcing us to make offensive sacrifices to get him into the game later on. It’s an interesting idea…if only ‘Tek could figure out the knuckleball.

By the way, I wonder if the Sox would consider trying a Tiger-like experiment. Detroit called Andrew Miller up last season, before he spent any significant time in the minors, and Bard, a teammate of his at UNC could probably use a similar stint as a reliever, if the Sox choose to offer him one. One scout mentioned that “I wouldn’t be surprised to see them do it. [Bard] is mature enough for it to happen and the Red Sox might have him pitch in A-ball to start the year, but surprise everyone by calling him up for the stretch run, when the rosters expand”.

I know we don’t want to take any chances with a guy as promising as Bard, but it’s an idea I’ve heard thrown around and I’m wondering what you guys think of it…I’m cautiously for it, but I would be a little worried about something going wrong — the last guy we rushed was Hansen, and well…now we’re paying for it.
Shane says:

January 12th, 2007 at 8:39 am

I agree with you on McGwire, his numbers deserve to get in, and it’s not like baseball or the media gave a crap about steroids when he was knocking in 70 HRs a year. The man did help bring the sport back to America’s attention. But then I don’t think it matters if he didn’t get in this year, he’s got 14 more chances.
blake says:

January 12th, 2007 at 9:46 am

I’m intregued by the prospects of giving Tavarez a few starts personally. After his proformance last year, when just about everyone else had called it quit, leads me to think he might be our best number 5 starter.

As for the lineup, I love Youk batting #2, and the only thing I’d maybe change is Lowell/Varitek. Lowell’s splits from last year suggest he was much more comfortable in the 7 hole, and if Tek rebounds as much as we think, we’re going to have production from top to bottom. If Lowell can comfortable at #6 though, I don’t have a problem with it.

WMP is awesome, and I think he’ll benefit from another year to develop and hopefully breakout. There’s no way we’ll go 5 months without needing a backup somewhere, and I think if he is the backup for 1B as well as the whole outfield he’ll be seeing enough ABs.
Sean O says:

January 12th, 2007 at 5:43 pm

Crisp’s CF rankings in 06 (out of 30):
BA: 20
OBP: 26
SLG: 25
ISO: 22
RC27: 23
BB/PA: 24

So, yeah, he ranged from slightly below average to well below average in most important categories. We have to pray for some improvement, especially considering his defense.
Theo (not the GM :-) says:

January 12th, 2007 at 6:56 pm

KNBR in San Francisco just reported that…

“A source close to the Braves front office mentioned that the team is interested in moving Andruw Jones within the coming weeks, for bullpen help. The source also mentioned that the Yankees, Rangers or Red Sox may be involved in the deal, and the A’s could also be in the mix, though not to acquire Jones. The source did not believe any deal was imminent or close.”

…this is the first time in awhile that I’ve heard Jones mentioned in trade talks. Interesting that the Sox and Yanks were both thrown in there…although the Rangers and A’s are the only ones that need a CF, and the A’s probably wouldn’t trade too much because he’d only be with Oakland for a year.
Dave B says:

January 13th, 2007 at 12:29 am

How can you say we need Crisp to be much better. Hell, if we can get Crisp back to his 04 and 05 stats, we might have the best #8 in baseball. Bill James shows that Crisp is an above average base runner, which is often overlooked, plus he did a great job defensively for his first year as a full time CF in Fenway. His VORP was better the Finely, Green, and Mientkiewicz. Not exactly all-stars but starters all the same. Crisp was hurt throughout most of the season, by the way. He doesn’t even qualify for hitting stats. Don’t get me wrong, he has a poor season, but not a lot needs to be done by him. He continues to improve defensively at CF, runs the bases very efficiently, and hit around average for CF the Sox should be extremely happy.
RH says:

January 13th, 2007 at 1:21 am

I’d be just fine with Coco hitting .280/.350/.430 as long as he plays well in centerfield — and he’s about as good a first-year CF’er as the Sox have had in awhile (defensively) — and runs the bases intelligently — we don’t need 25SB’s if he gets caught 15 times in the process, I’d rather he use his speed a different way — hit and runs, bunt hits, etc… to spark rallies from the bottom of the order.

Coco will make that trade worthwhile, just watch…
Sam says:

January 13th, 2007 at 4:56 am

The raw numbers in comparison to numbers produced by other players who play the same position won’t do Coco any justice of course. By Opening Day, he’ll be almost exactly a year removed from his finger injury, and I fully expect his numbers to rebound this season.

Now if only we could find a limb donor and develop a procedure for grafting a new arm onto a live body …
Alex M says:

January 13th, 2007 at 8:21 pm

I honestly don’t understand these outfielders with these pitiful throwing arms…don’t the coaches teach them how to throw a baseball? It’s a mechanical problem, and one that can be fixed. Throw with your body, in an arc!
Sean O says:

January 13th, 2007 at 10:49 pm

Can something happen in baseball? Please? I know it’s the dead time of the year, but dear lord, please let something happen. I don’t care if some middle reliever is traded to the Brewers, at least that’ll be something.

I miss baseball, why isn’t it april yet?
Schulz says:

January 14th, 2007 at 8:37 am

Regarding Willy Mo,
I count 6 ways he can play:
1. LF when Manny’s out.
2. CF when Crisp is out.
3. RF when Drew is out.
4. 1B when Youk is out.
5. 1B when Lowell is out, move Youk to 3rd.
6. DH to give Ortiz the occasional night off.

If one of any of those six players is not playing Willy Mo will see time.
Sean O says:

January 14th, 2007 at 12:09 pm

Schulz-
But we’ll also benefit far more by giving him a set position so he doesn’t become a utility guy. Except for Figgins, whose quality is about 90% because of his speed, players need a set position to perform to their abilities.

Put Wily Mo in CF to start off the year until Crisp shows he belongs in the majors. I don’t want to waste another 400 ABs on someone who can’t hit this season, and Pena clearly showed he deserved CF more than Coco in 2006.
RH says:

January 15th, 2007 at 3:17 pm

Schulz:
If Coco Crisp is out of the lineup, Drew would play center and Pena would play right because JD is a decent centerfielder with better range.

Speaking of which…one little concern about Wily Mo…

He’s batting a combined 3-for-46 in the Dominican Winter League (playoffs and regular season). That’s all kinds of disgusting.

On the other hand, I’ve heard that he’s doing everything right in terms of swing-mechanics and is actually showing a little more patience at the plate.

I think Wily Mo will see a ton of PH opportunities against righthanded pitchers and he’ll appear in at least 90 games, either as a starter or as a replacement. If he excells during Spring Training, I think the Sox will consider trading Coco again, move Drew to CF full-time and play Pena in right.

By the way, Wily Mo is also valuable in any kind of brawl. We no longer have to fear the steroid-packed punches of Jason Giambi — Wily Mo can take him any day!
Shane says:

January 15th, 2007 at 6:26 pm

But isn’t the whole reason we have Drew because WMP can’t play right?
RH says:

January 15th, 2007 at 7:23 pm

I don’t think that Pena would be that much more comfortable in center than in right. There’s a HUGE amount of real estate to cover in centerfield at Fenway, and Pena just doesn’t have the range to do it. We’d be better off with him making a few “dimensional” mistakes in rightfield than allowing a ton of triples in center. It’s hard to judge whether Pena or Drew has the better arm, but I’d prefer Pena in right and Drew in center if Coco is out of the lineup.
Matt says:

January 31st, 2007 at 9:38 am

Why at full validity of harm them and continue to apply in many areas of medicine and sports? WBR LeoP