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Fire Brand of the American League
Lugo’s slump, Dice-K’s new month, the Rocket
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Now that Coco Crisp has silenced his critics by playing incredible defense and seemingly hitting better (which isn’t supported by the facts, but he did go on a tear for a bit), the critics have been casting about for a new goat on the Red Sox.
Enter Julio Lugo.
Lugo’s April wasn’t that bad. He hit .256/.346/.344 which wasn’t great, but certainly wasn’t concerning. He was getting on base and scoring runs, 16 of them in 24 games. In addition, he’s continued to show a penchant for Fenway Park, hitting .280/.383/.360 in 50 AB there to date.
And yet his line is at .221/.302/.301 in 112 AB. He’s hitting a terrible .175/.232/.254 on the road, and .087/.120/.130 thus far in May.
He’s come exactly as advertised on defense: his range at shortstop has been pretty darn good, and his hands are a bit erratic.
I think it’s far too early to write Lugo off, especially with his average May and his liking of Fenway Park. To see if there’s any historical precedent for this, I checked out Lugo’s most recent April, May, and June statistical lines. Here we go:
2006
April: 1.000/1.000/1.500 in 2 AB
May: .245/.275/.347
June: .349/.439/.604 (he continued raking in July)
2005
April: .281/.324/.354
May: .259/.308/.361
June: .305/.387/.362 (he raked in July)
2004
April: .328/.375/.522
May: .214/.245/.388
June: .316/.407/.418 (he had a similar July)
I’m seeing a trend here. Are you? He does decent in April, he falls off a cliff in May, and he leads the charge in June and July. I didn’t look past July, so I’m not leaving anything out on purpose, by the way.
Look, Lugo’s been in the majors for eight years now, and he’s only 31. Outside of his 2006 half-season with the Devil Rays, he hasn’t been known for his power (although he hit 41 and 36 doubles in 2004 and 2005, respectively). Lugo’s been known for his very good range, his ability to get on base, and his speed.
As a matter of fact, he’s pacing for 50 SB … and none caught. When’s the last time the Red Sox had a batter steal 50 bases? That would be 1973, when Tommy Harper stole a club record 54, and stole 25 and 28 bags in his two other years in Beantown. Do you know how rare it is for a Red Sox player to burn up the basepaths? Johnny Damon was the last one to hit 30+, which he did in 2002 and 2003. In 2001, Carl Everett led the team… with NINE! Jody Reed led the 1992 team with seven. Otis Nixon stole 42 in 1994, and that was it until Damon’s brief foray into making the Red Sox fast.
Not until last year with Coco Crisp did we feel we had a burner again, and now we have two. Checking out the team pages from 2006-1972 was flatout comical. I never really saw how much we didn’t care about speed until I checked out the team stats. Couple that with Coco Crisp on pace for 31, and we’re seeing speed like never before here in Boston … and wait until Jacoby Ellsbury!
Here’s the bottom line: Julio Lugo’s job is secure. He’s got a four-year deal, he’s historically not going to warm up until June, and we’re 20-10.
The results of the poll over to the right:
Daisuke Matsuzaka now has a 5.45 ERA on the year. Thoughts?
* He’s getting used to the league, give him time. His Cy Young talent will shine eventually.
14% of all votes
* Don’t be worried. It will be lower by the time the season ends, but not Cy worthy.
43% of all votes
* I expect him to be a lot like Beckett was last year, and a lot like Beckett is now in 2008.
28% of all votes
* Hideki Irabu redux!
14% of all votes
I voted for the second option. I was told that I didn’t provide an option that would have him end up as an “average” pitcher, but we still got some good responses. The overwhelming majority things that Dice-K will be just fine by the time the season rounds up.
Better than Roger Clemens? Let’s hope so. Dice-K finished his first month in the bigs with a 3-2 record and 5.45 ERA. He’ll toe the mound Wednesday against Tomo Ohka, who is 2-3 with a 5.50 ERA. Interesting how the two countrymen mirror each other in effectiveness thus far.
Matsuzaka’s first start against the Blue Jays came at the Rogers Centre, where we’re at now. He gave up two runs in six innings, whiffing 10. A repeat performance will go along way towards easing our hearts, as he will have vanquished a team that has seen him already and has Troy Glaus back in the fold.
I would caution everyone not to worry too much about Dice-K. Josh Beckett went through the same thing last year, and look how well he’s doing now. Dice-K has to learn the league. Johan Santana had a 6.49 ERA in his rookie year, starting five games and relieving in 25 for 86.0 IP. Do you see Twins fans groaning over that 6.49 ERA? No? Gee, I wonder why.
Patience.
Buster Olney brought up something interesting yesterday. What cap will Roger wear into the Hall?
It could all but guarantee that Clemens’ Hall of Fame plaque will have a Yankees cap. (Save the e-mails: I know that the Hall of Fame has the final say, but given the strong relationship between Clemens and the Hall, I tend to believe they will go along with whatever his wishes are on this one).
Look, I know I wrote that I felt betrayed by Roger’s decision to come to Boston. But after a day of really sifting through it and trying to figure out why Roger loves New York so much and why he would choose a Yankees hat, I’ve come to this conclusion.
It doesn’t matter that the Red Sox have a new manager, general manager and owner. It doesn’t matter that the culture of the Red Sox is completely different than in those halycon days. What matters is that Roger felt cheated by the Red Sox never giving him what he wanted. Yes, he wanted all the money. Yes, he said he wanted to go to Texas and ended up in Toronto. He followed the money, but why couldn’t that money come from Boston? And then the general manager of the Red Sox questioned his ability? Was Roger saving the world at the time? No, but that must not have been pleasant to hear.
Those words turned him into an amazing pitcher again, the pitcher he was in the late 80s and early 90s. He spent two years in Toronto, then forced his way to the Yankees. Why? He had the money, now he wanted the ring. He grabbed his two rings and went home for three years.
Now he’s back. He’s back for another ring, the one he couldn’t get in Houston. He’s back for the astounding $28 million, the money THE YANKEES GAVE HIM. The money that showed the team’s commitment to him. The money the Red Sox refused to pony up when he left after 1996. He joined a team with players that were still around from his last go-round. People he liked and respected: Joe Torre. Derek Jeter. Andy Pettitte.
So you tell me: Why would Roger Clemens not feel the most attachment to the team that got him his World Series rings, where his most respected and loved friends are, and where the team shows him the commitment of spending the money to get him?
I may have not understood it yesterday, but I understand it now. Roger is not a traitor. He’s not a schmuck. He’s going where he should always go: the place with a winning culture, friends, and a team that respects him … and has never, not once, no matter how many general managers ago, disrespected him. Tell me if you agree or disagree in the new poll to the right.
I understand, Roger Clemens.
But I still want us to beat your brains out.
This entry was posted
on Tuesday, May 8th, 2007 at 12:00 am and is filed under Coco Crisp, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Julio Lugo, New York Yankees, Roger Clemens, Evan Brunell.
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10 Responses to “Lugo’s slump, Dice-K’s new month, the Rocket”
May 8th, 2007 at 1:25 am
1). Coco’s still my handy scapegoat, I just try not to complain when he’s hitting .375 and saving games with his glove. Remember that Renteria also had a great series against the Yankees. SSS and all that.
2). Matsuzaka has about 2 more starts before he should be benched or convinced to go to Pawtucket. If he doesn’t go Derek Lowe Face for an inning or two a night, and starts earning his money, then all is well. But he’s really been garbage so far.
At least Sexy Lips is fun to watch, Matsuzaka’s just waiting for the inevitable train wreck.
3). Performance or not, Lugo’s still my most hated because of the whole wifebeater thing. I seemed to be the only person calling him a flop when we signed him, and predicted about a .230 avg before we made a panic move by trading Bard and Ellsbury for Orlando Cabrera. Right now, shock of shocks, .221 .302 .301, compared to his “total aberration” line of .219 .278 .267 with LA.
4). Off topic, but in a reasonable world, this could be our starting lineup right now:
3b: Kevin Youkilis
1b: Adam Dunn
LF: Manny Ramirez
DH: David Ortiz
RF: JD Drew
C: Jason Varitek
SS: Hanley Ramirez
2b: Dustin Pedroia
CF: Jacoby Ellsbury
Anyone else want to cry a little? I won’t even get into the performance of Drew, Cla Meredith, Coco and the 2006 draft class, but wow. A 20-10 record is a downright miracle considering what we’ve crapped away over the past 3 seasons. Shocking.
May 8th, 2007 at 1:47 am
Somewhat off-topic, but worth mentioning…
Ellsbury went 2-for-4 for Pawtucket today, with two singles and two stolen bases. He was caught once. The PawSox lost to the Yanks AAA (Scranton/Wilkes-Barre) as Tyler Clippard went 7, allowed 5 hits and a run, and struck-out 9.
Meanwhile, a quiet acquisition this offseason, Daniel Haigwood, pitched four solid innings for Portland today.
Manny Delcarmen got back on track with two scoreless innings, though he did walk two.
Off day for the big leaguers, certainly not for the farm.
Sean O:
Dunn would’ve cost more than just Arroyo — no way Theo would’ve chosen Wily Mo over Adam Dunn if they were available for equal return. Even he’s not that bad when it comes to evaluating talent.
And keep in mind that we’d be sans Beckett if that were the case, so the rotation would be worse.
Hanley though…he’s leaving me speechless day after day.
Bed-time for me — I can’t even think straight right now. Can’t. Wait. Until. It’s. Ellsbury. Time.
May 8th, 2007 at 7:26 am
Evan,
Plain wrong about Clemens. Maybe it is because you are too young and don’t remember it all that well, but this is my first real business of baseball memory, with Clemens being the second Red Sox I ever loved (after Jim Rice). The Fat Man was coming off the richest contract ever given to a pitcher at the time, a 4 year deal, of which he had 2 good years and 2 bad years. He showed up to camp out of shape and basically used April as his personal trainer every year. He comes on strong for the first time in 2+ years in the 2nd half of year 4 (waiting until the Sox are out of contention).
So what do the Sox do? They offer him a similar deal to the one he just pitched, even though he was now in his mid-30s and showing nothing but serious signs of decline over the last 2+ seasons. It was far and away the richest contract ever offered to a fat pitcher who would only pitch well half of the time. Clemens instead says, “screw it, I’ll take the Loonies, then strong-arm them in two year to make an illegal trade to a contender”.
You make it sound like the Sox disrespected him with the contract offer. Quite frankly, Clemens disrespected the Sox with his 4 double chins every spring training, then disrespected them again when he was pissed that they didn’t offer him more money to continue his decline into proto-planet status every February.
So, respectfully, Clemens is a traitor. Clemens is a Schmuck. And you do not understand Roger Clemens, nor do you “understand, Roger Clemens”. He wants money and attention, as much as can be heaped on him, and he wants it for doing as little as possible. When he sees that he is losing the adoration of the world, only then will he show up to camp in shape. When he gets old, he insists that special measures be taken for him. It’s only when people start dismissing him that he actually starts working his ass off. Clemens sucks. And it is all this “heap love on me” crap that makes me think he would be the 1st one in line for HGH. I hope he gets a tumor. Preferably a tumor that starts with the letter K.
Oh, and also, as to the infamous Duquette “twilight of his career” comment, he actually said something along the lines of “we wanted Clemens here in for the twilight of his career”, not “he is in the twilight of his career”, but I’ve learned to pretty much let that one go.
May 8th, 2007 at 8:33 am
Actually, Duquette said “The Red Sox and our fans were fortunate to see Roger Clemens play in his prime and we had hoped to keep him in Boston during the twilight of his career.”
I’m sure Clemens still got pissed. Twlight? What twilight?
Mark, I’m not disagreeing with you. You bring up some valid points … I guess it’s just hard to get a handle on it all.
May 8th, 2007 at 9:12 am
By the way Mark, I was trying to think of it from CLEMENS’ point of view. Do you think he factored in that he loafed through years of a rich contract and didn’t give it his all in April?
Doubt it.
May 8th, 2007 at 9:16 am
I agree, Daniel. Sean:
“Wayne [Krivsky] came to me in the spring and said he could get (pitcher) Bronson Arroyo for an outfielder — Wily Mo Pena, Adam Dunn or Austin Kearns,” said Barton. “Turns out Boston wanted Wily Mo, and that was fine because we had an extra outfielder.””
I don’t think that would have been a straight up swap. I have negotiated baseball deals before in fantasy baseball and online baseball simulation leagues, and just because I quote one player and another doesn’t mean we’re going to swap it. For example, in my online baseball simulation league last night, I acquired SP Ricky Nolasco from the Marlins for OF prospect Colin Curtis (who seems to be another Ellsbury), SP Phillip Humber and MR prospect George Whaley. When I told people the deal, I said it was “Nolasco for Curtis.”
May 8th, 2007 at 10:18 am
Mark, best comment in the history of this site. Couldn’t agree with you more on all accounts.
Sean, I hated the Lugo signing as well. The only reason I was willing to give in was because there were literally no other options. But your wifebeater accusation is out of line. The story:
Mabely (his wife) later changed her story to coordinate with her husband’s, and dropped the restraining order, however Julio was still tried in court accused of misdemeanor assault. Julio was eventually found not guilty, and he has remained out of trouble from the public eye since this incident.
So please don’t go attacking Julio for that. Attack him for his hitting suckiness, but not that.
And I’ve outlined many times how wrong you are about Matsuzaka. He’s been disappointing when you look at ERA, but he’s had just a few KILLER innings full of walks and loses of control for no apparent reason. It really is confusing. His K rate and WHIP means Dice-K is going to turn it around quickly.
May 8th, 2007 at 12:22 pm
That could be our lineup, and if my aunt had bollocks she’d be my uncle. However, we would probably have scored 90 runs more than we’ve allowed this year if we had Andy Marte playing 3b and Wily Mo manning CF. Of course, if we had Sosa and Appier back in ‘95 a championship would have happened so much sooner.
May 8th, 2007 at 9:42 pm
Haha - good last line Evan.
I totally agree with your assessment, and touched on some of your points in my piece on the Clemens return. Do I believe Clemens is an angel who came here solely because of the Yankee tradition? No, that would be naive, b/c the $28 mil. had a lot to do with it. But, he obviously respects the organization and understands that respect is mutual - even though his “first” retirement annoyed myself and most Yankee fans, his services are certainly needed in the Bronx. Services that will obviously not approach the type of dominance he had in Houston, but will be very valuable nonetheless.
May 11th, 2007 at 12:01 am
[…] Well, the vote that I put up about Roger Clemens was overwhelming. The last time I wrote, I said that I could see Clemens’ point of view. I discussed it with Sox fans (you guys plus in person) … Yankee fans … fans of other teams … and for the most part, they agreed that that’s probably where Clemens was coming from, but that money still played a huge part. Well, apparently money was THE entire part. (And you know something … it probably was. But that other stuff I talked about sure didn’t hurt.) The results of the vote: Why did Roger choose the Yankees? […]
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