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Rich Harden to Boston?
Daniel Rathman of Baseballistic posted a tidbit of news yesterday, saying that KNBR in San Francisco reported ongoing talks between the Red Sox and Athletics about Rich Harden:
“According to sources close to the A’s front office, the Red Sox continue to show ‘persistent interest’ in Rich Harden. The A’s have said that he is not available at this time, but the Red Sox are expected to attempt to acquire him at the deadline, possibly along with an outfielder, in a deal that would also include either Coco Crisp or Wily Mo Pena heading to Oakland.”
Rich Harden, who has been anointed a future Cy Young award winner, is 25 years of and is currently on the disabled list with a right shoulder strain. He’s started three games, notching a 1-1 record and 1.42 ERA. He has a career ERA of 3.58, but also missed significant time last year, starting only nine games due to a sprained elbow ligament. He was able to start 19 games in 2005 (3 relief appearances) and notched a 2.58 ERA. The year before that remains the only time he has been able to spend a full year in the majors. He made 31 starts of a 3.99 ERA that year.
There is absolutely no way the Red Sox can turn down Rich Harden. Yes, he is often injured. But he is yet only 25 and possesses electric stuff. If he can remain healthy, he is a flat out force in our rotation. However, I think it would be far too dangerous to surrender one of our top three prospects: Jacoby Ellsbury, Clay Buchholz or Michael Bowden. A lot of players bandied about in this trade have to do with an outfielder, and it looks like either Coco Crisp or Wily Mo Pena would be headed to Oakland, so we can cross Ellsbury off that list.
However, this is where the agreement would probably hit some snags, and potentially kill off the deal (allowing the Yankees to jump in) … but Oakland would probably hold fast to wanting Buchholz or Bowden. I really don’t think that we should give up any one of them for Harden.
Look, Harden is one amazing talent … but he comes with quite a few warts, and the reason the Athletics are about to deal him is because his contract is starting to not reflect his value on the field. Harden is currently making $2 million this year, with it escalating to $4.5 in 2008, and a club option for 2009 at $7 million.
So what do I propose? I propose a trade of CF Coco Crisp, SP Kason Gabbard, SP Justin Masterson, and RP Craig Hansen.
We all know what Crisp brings to the table offensively: not much (.236/.289/.321). He’s simply not viable, and he’s lost whatever offense he had in Cleveland. However, he’s cost-controlled at $15.5 million through 2009, and he’s been quite the defensive whiz this year. To expound on that link (seriously, click it), here are the numbers for the most popular defensive metrics out there: fielding percentage, range factor and zone rating:
1.000 Fielding Percentage (T-1 in MLB)
3.05 Range Factor (5th in MLB)
.907 Zone Rating (6th in MLB)
The Athletics could use Crisp, as they are struggling to find long-term outfield replacements, and Crisp offers them a possible resurgence with the bat, speed and defense. One popular notion that people have is that the Athletics care only about on-base percentage. Not true. They care about finding undervalued commodities. That’s why their focus has shifted from OBP to defense and low strikeout rates in recent years (even though they’ll still take OBP and power any day).
Gabbard was rather impressive in his spot-start the other day and has impressed in Triple-A. I have to say, I am personally very high on Gabbard. I would absolutely hate to see him go, but we have to send some good pitchers over, and Gabbard could fit the bill there. I view him as another Kenny Rogers (minus the ball scuffing!).
As for Justin Masterson, he’s another high-profile rookie pitcher who is ranked fifth on the top Red Sox prospects leaderboard. He is pitching in a haven of offense in Lancaster, and has a 5.85 ERA to show for it, but Billy Beane is smart enough to look past that. He has 70 groundballs induced on the year out of a total 142 balls in play. He’s only given up two homeruns on the year, but has allowed 54 hits in 40 innings. The ERA is a product of Lancaster. His home WHIP is a crazy 2.40, but on the road it is 1.46. He is quality.
The last person that I would send to Oakland needs no introduction. Craig Hansen, currently in Triple-A, could possibly benefit from a change of scenery. The electric slider he once possessed is hiding somewhere. After struggling to start the year, Hansen has started turning it around, posting a 4.80 ERA to date, allowing zero homers, 10 walks and 15 strikeouts in 15 innings.
Will the Athletics accept this offer? I don’t know, but I do know this: it’s the best offer I can come up with that doesnt include Buchholz or Bowden. They could ask for catcher George Kottaras as a potential replacement for Rich Harden … they could stick to their guns and demand one of the Killer Bs (yes, I stole that from Houston) and try to play us off the Yankees … but it seems no secret that the Red Sox are tremendously interested in Harden. And for good reason. We will have to wait and see. If we do acquire Harden, I have to imagine that he would slot in the rotation immediately, keeping Jon Lester in Triple-A or in a relief role. It would also virtually assure the departure of Curt Schilling via free agency to open up a spot for Jon Lester or one of the Killer Bs. Imagine a rotation comprised of Matsuzaka, Beckett, Harden, Wakefield, and Lester with Buchholz and Bowden knocking on the door? Shivers up and down the spine.
The results of the previous poll:
What is the Red Sox’s biggest weakness?
* Rotation
4% of all votes
* Bullpen
13% of all votes
* Defense
29% of all votes
* Offense
15% of all votes
* Front Office
5% of all votes
* None!
35% of all votes
Quite overwhelming. The majority feel that this team has zero weakness, but another solid percentage feel the bullpen could be upgraded. Count me in favor of those feeling the pen could use an upgrade. It’s been very solid to start the year, but I’m not sold on it yet. There’s too many question marks, too many variables. The new poll in the right asks your opinion on Rich Harden. Be sure to weigh in!
(PS. I don’t want to talk about the loss last night. I’m deathly terrified that the other shoe is about to drop now. I guess I’m too ingrained in my ways, even though Manny and Drew aren’t producing and our #2 and #5 starters are on the DL. Just win today, so I can breathe. Thanks.)
This entry was posted
on Tuesday, May 22nd, 2007 at 12:01 am and is filed under Eric Hinske, Justin Masterson, Oakland Athletics, Rich Harden, Wily Mo Pena, Craig Hansen, Jon Lester, Coco Crisp, Curt Schilling, Kason Gabbard, Jacoby Ellsbury.
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24 Responses to “Rich Harden to Boston?”
May 22nd, 2007 at 12:14 am
Why would we want Harden when we already have a constantly injured question mark in Beckett? hells no. We’d probably have to give up Ellsbury and Bowden to get him, and a deal like that has already backfired once on us.
No way.
May 22nd, 2007 at 12:16 am
agreed. Unless you get an Abreu style deal, large volume of lower level guys, i would stay far away. You dont want to go down the Clement/Pavano route again.
May 22nd, 2007 at 12:34 am
Harden’s injury history is a lot scarier than Beckett’s. A lot scarier.
Still, for the right price, I’d love to have Harden. But that’s only for the right price, which means no Buchholz, Bowden or Ellsbury. So yeah, going with the chorus on this one. Heh.
May 22nd, 2007 at 12:41 am
This could actually turn into a slightly larger deal, as the A’s may also be trying to unload Milton Bradley. If there’s one guy that can either screw up or bolster clubhouse chemistry in a big way, it’s Bradley, and I don’t think he’ll mesh well with the Sox.
I’d agree with the stay-away-unless-it-only-takes-lower-level-prospects-and-an-outfielder-plan. I doubt the Sox are really seriously interested unless the A’s go into fire sale mode.
In other news, CNNSI had the Red Sox acquiring the Nats’ Jon Rauch as one of their “Seven Trades That Need to Happen”.
Wily Mo to Washington for Rauch? Bowden certainly likes Pena…but is it time to sell on Wily Mo? An (in effect) Arroyo for Rauch exchange would look all kinds of awful…
May 22nd, 2007 at 7:40 am
i think drew should be moved to the second spot in he order and put youkilis behind manny, cause i’m getting friggin tired of his lob, i think he leads the league in that category…
May 22nd, 2007 at 7:50 am
imagine what that rotation will be like with Harden. this is a solution to losing Clemens to the yanks.
May 22nd, 2007 at 7:53 am
i found this on this philly newspaper:
http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20070522_Too_much_busy_work.html
“Also, the Red Sox have more bullpen options. Hideki Okajima has been a lights-out setup man and Mike Timlin has been effective as well. That allows the Red Sox to be creative. The Phillies hope to have more flexibility now that Ryan Madson (strained oblique) has been activated. It would further help if Tom Gordon eventually can rebound from shoulder inflammation that has sidelined him since May 2″
mike timlin effective….LMFAO
May 22nd, 2007 at 8:35 am
Hmm. Jon Rauch. He’s a solid reliever.
Guys, Rich Harden is a one in a liffetime talent that has shown he can blow the AL away. I think it’s a mistake to pass up on him.
And for the record, Sean O, we haven’t really had that trade backfire on us. Just Hanley has succeeded so far, as Anibal has struggled bigtime this year, and Beckett was doing very well before he hit the DL.
May 22nd, 2007 at 10:57 am
frank:
I think Tito will realize soon that Drew should hit 2nd, and Youks should hit 5th behind the boppers. I still think this is just a slump for Drew, but he’s killing far too many rallies. Or perhaps Drew and Lowell should be switched in the order?
I also think Coco should hit 9th, behind Cora/Pedroia, because that would create the speed combination Tito likes without the “worst” hitter in the lineup breaking it up.
And I’m not convinced that this…
1. Drew
2. Youkilis
3. Ortiz
4. Manny
5. Lowell
6. Varitek
7. Pedroia/Cora
8. Coco
9. Lugo
…wouldn’t be the best lineup, as unorthodox as it seems.
Anyway, changing it after one loss, especially considering the fact that our record is 30-13, is probably too radical.
Weird: I’ve never been this optimistic about a Tavarez start.
[knock on wood]
May 22nd, 2007 at 11:06 am
I don’t want Drew batting 2nd. He’d be a L/L with Ortiz. It just won’t work out, and I think flipping Manny and Papi would be a mistake.
Daniel: I like your unorthodox lineup, but I’d switch Lugo with Pedroia/Cora.
May 22nd, 2007 at 11:14 am
Daniel:
You and me brother, I am amped for this Sexy Lips start. I can practically feel the cotton of the #51 shirt on my back as we speak, and the horrified look on Slappy’s face.
May 22nd, 2007 at 11:22 am
I’m at a loss on Coco. I was convinced that he’d be a quality lead-off hitter for this team, but it’s getting to the point where I think he’s had his opportunity to show something (remember he was out most of last year), and it’s just not materializing.
It’s too bad.
May 22nd, 2007 at 1:29 pm
I would trade Clay Bucholtz, Delcarmen, Coco, and Lower A prospect for Harden
May 22nd, 2007 at 1:32 pm
DIno:
Might want to include Papi and Beckett in that trade as well. Jeez — the whole house for a solid, but injury prone starter. That’s Bill Bavasi territory!
I think Clay Buchholz should be untradeable. He’s the kind of guy where you deal him and he turns into the next Chris Carpenter (which is his MLB comp on Sox Prospects).
May 22nd, 2007 at 3:24 pm
Harden replacing Schilling in the rotation for 2008. You can’t help but be excited at the prospect, but Buccholz IMO is untradeable. Beane is too smart a GM to settle for your proposed trade, Evan, but maybe he’d do Pena, Bard and Hansen/Delcarmen. I’d have to do it at that point.
The injury history is scary, but Rich Harden is a flat out monster. The kid can deal. When healthy, the sky is the limit. Maybe he’s gotten all of his injury woes behind him?
In the end, though, the A’s will hang onto Harden for a while and this conversation will look a bit stupid.
May 22nd, 2007 at 3:47 pm
I actually think Harden will end up a Met, with Lastings Milledge, Aaron Heilman, and a prospect heading to Oakland.
But I don’t see anything happening until the ASB, and if Oakland’s within 6 of the AL West lead, probably not until the winter.
May 22nd, 2007 at 4:16 pm
If I’m Beane I’m starting that conversation with Humber (better secondary stuff then Pelfrey), Gomes or Fernando Martinez…that Milledge is a punk and the A’s bullpen (Calero & Durusherer sp?) should turn around…not sure if they need Heilman who is a good arm but gets hit fairly well in the NL East.
May 22nd, 2007 at 6:25 pm
Very valid offer from the Mets, Daniel.
May 23rd, 2007 at 10:04 am
Not really. A cancer, a reliever with a 4+ era in the NL East and a “prospect”
May 23rd, 2007 at 4:11 pm
Let’s be realistic here.
1. Buchholz or Bowden would have to be a part of the deal for there to be any chance of it happening
2. Delcarmen and/or Hansen would be a player here
3. Coco makes the most sense for both teams as the major league player to go. The Sox would have to be confident that Ellsbury could come in and play this year however. I don’t see a combination of Wily Mo and David Murphy making sense in CF through a playoff run.
Harden, although often injured, would be a great piece to the puzzle. But don’t expect anything less than giving up a “Beckett” like haul to get him. And remember, we ate Lowell’s deal to only have to give up that much to get him.
Look…I am all for throwing out ideas and rumors. But lets at least be realistic about it.
May 23rd, 2007 at 5:47 pm
The problem with Harden is that the kinds of injuries he’s been getting are persistent, debilitating (to his pitching career, at least), and recurring. Blisters are bad, but blisters are much more treatable than an oblique strain, and pitchers who suffer from a bad oblique or shoulder strain seem to be more likely to suffer them over and over and over, unless they make some big change to their pitching motion/style.
I’ve always said that Harden throws like a little guy, regardless of his actual size. He has kind of a high-energy, real high-strain motion. Reminds me of Tim Hudson (who at least is a little guy who throws like a little guy).
I guess it’s possible that the Sox have sat down all their trainers and identified something that they could fix in Harden’s motion that would make him less likely to blow out his entire core, something that the A’s maybe haven’t noticed or been able to change. But if he keeps throwing like he has been, I would expect him to keep sliding down the slippery slope to Mark Prior-dom.
May 24th, 2007 at 8:05 pm
There is no denyng that Harden is or could be a tremendous pitcher. IMHO
May 24th, 2007 at 8:07 pm
But let’s get specific about his injury history:
23-Apr-07: Right shoulder injury, 15-day DL.
18-Apr-07: Right shoulder injury, day-to-day.
21-Sep-06: Missed 129 games (elbow injury).
08-Jun-06: Elbow injury, 15-day DL.
04-Jun-06: Missed 34 games (back injury).
28-Apr-06: Back injury, 15-day DL.
21-Jun-05: Missed 34 games (strained left oblique muscle).
15-May-05: Strained left oblique muscle, 15-day DL (retroactive to May 14th).
April 1st, 2008 at 12:48 am
Amazing that almost a year ago, the trade parameters for Harden became the foundation for the tug of war discussions about trading Santana for Buckholz, Lester, Ellsbury, Lowrie, Masterson, Bowden, Moss.
I believe that after Harden and Street got injured again last year (2007), we could have gotten them both “on the cheap” (relatively speaking) and created an awesome Rotation and Pen for 2008. We still could have gotten them for a better deal during the off season, before they came back so strong. Look what Harden did to us in Tokyo. He may, again, have limited innings, but in a strong rotation like Boston’s, he would have less pressure to win and be less likely to hurt himself this year. And Street, doing what Gagne was supposed to have done, would keep both Paps and Street healthy, and Oki less prone to fatigue.
We missed that one, and could probably have pulled the trigger with Crisp, Hansen or Breslow, and a couple of the lower level guys BB was looking for.
Toronto’s Janssen is now in the same boat, and the Jays expressed a desire to move him, and a Breslow or Snyder type deal might have done it if we were thinking. Imagine him next year, healthy again, in the pen or rotation.
I know, the last entry on this thread was a year ago, but the issues remain current today. In fact, trade rumors continue for Harden, Street and Janssen. Maybe it’s time.
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