November 27, 2007
Watch For A Much Improved Julio Lugo in 2008
The most ridiculed move of the Theo Epstein Era could very well be the acquisition of Julio Lugo to play shortstop. Yes, more than letting Orlando Cabrera walk to the West Coast, signing Matt Clement and Edgar Renteria for four years in the same winter, or handing J.D. Drew the fattest check of his lifetime. The general consensus around baseball argues that Julio Lugo was an unmitigated disaster in his first year when, looking closer, our shortstop was not all that terrible. We managed to win a World Series in which Lugo posted a .500 OBP, didn’t we?
Julio Lugo began 2007 on a sour note, putting together a well-documented first half of depression and despair. It was absolutely painful and maddening to see our $36 million dollar shortstop, the latest in the merry-go-round that has become that position, struggle so mightily. Lugo shook off the slow start to rebound in the second half and finish with an above average second half for his position, managing a .728 OPS, which is not exceptional but reasonable. The average AL SS hit .269/.322/.391 for a .713 OPS.
The comfort level of playing in Boston seemed to be catching on. Lugo was not only becoming to feel better with the bat, but he continued to play surprising defense in the most valuable position on the field.
By raw statistics such as fielding percentage and range factor, Lugo was league average. Coming into this year, we expected Julio to be below average but come with a potent bat. Instead, according to Dave Pinto’s PMR on Baseball Musings, Sox shortstops (mostly Lugo, rare Cora) were ninth in baseball. That is a very encouraging result. Captain Intangibles and the Yankees were dead last.
In The Hardball Times RZR+ statistic, Lugo finished tied for 13th out of shortstops with Alex Gonzalez. He finished 11th in plays made out of his fielding zone and 12th in defensive win shares. Those numbers are all above average.
The defense has certainly advanced for Julio. Next, we need to see more progress from the bat. In the year 2008, you will see more progress. Believe me.
Lugo has averaged a .315 BABIP his entire career in the big leagues (and that’s a large sample), a number much higher than the unlucky BABIP he posted in 2007 (.262). If you plug in the .315 BABIP for his 2007 campaign, he hits .275/.342/.404. Those stats tie him for seventh in OBP and eighth in SLG. If Lugo had played like he had his entire career, nobody would be complaining that he is a huge liability. With more luck in 2008, he will turn it around.
Another factor in his favor is the move to the 9-hole. With Ellsbury, Pedroia or Youkilis locked in at the top of the order, Lugo will hit ninth and only ninth for Boston this upcoming season. In the failed leadoff role, Lugo hit .224/.286/.315 in 352 AB, but moving to the nine spot he upped the ante to .305/.353/.483. Think if we got anywhere near that from Lugo in 2008.
One of the reasons Lugo wasn’t hung in Copley Square was due to the fact he hit well in “clutch situations”. With RISP, he finished at a .277/.320/.421 clip, driving in 64 RBI in 159 possible at-bats for a very solid ratio. Good defense + delivering in the big situations + bad OPS = below average. I’ll admit that. He just wasn’t disastrous like most proclaimed.
Next year you’ll see a hike in Lugo’s BABIP and a jump in his production. All of a sudden, the $9 million will not look so apocalyptic and we’ll have a quality shortstop.
Jed Lowrie will have to wait.
Discussion
16 Comments on "Watch For A Much Improved Julio Lugo in 2008"
#1
Posted by Dave B., November 27, 2007 12:51 AM
J.D. is my boy, so i guess i'm alittle bias here, but i think he is going to be a stud this coming season. In a season where he was heralded as a complete bust he still managed almost an .800 OPS. The guy switched leagues into a poor park for him. I think this year was an fluke.
#2
Posted by Rick, November 27, 2007 8:58 AM
Looking for a similar improvement in Drew's productivity, too, for 2008.
What're the odds on Jim Ed making it to the Hall of Fame at long last? His eligibility is eroding away quickly.
#3
Posted by JMM, November 27, 2007 11:01 AM
Sorry Evan and Rick, but both of you know that Lugo and Drew were bad signings. And it's not like they had a few bad months. Both of them struggled all year long.
You're reaching if you think both will suddenly put up astonishing numbers.
Please don't be shocked when Lugo can't raise his BABIP and Drew plays around 100 games due to injury.
Make sure you write a post about that.
#4
Posted by Michael Edelman, November 27, 2007 1:43 PM
Eh, I doubt it. I could see Drew improving but I don't think Lugo's going to be all that great. It would be hard not for him to improve on next season but he's a career .271/.333/.395 hitter. I'd rather see Lowrie there at the end of the season. Not only do I think he's a better defensive SS, but I think he'd hit better as well. He hit .300/.356/.506 in his call up to Triple-A last year and .297/.410/.501 when he played in Double-A for the first time last year. That's an incredible adjustment. Plus, the Red Sox develop their young hitters very well. Look at Pedroia and Ellsbury. They all have good plate discipline and get on base. Lowrie's the same kind of guy but he probably has more power than the other two, and that's coming from a SS.
#5
Posted by Sean O, November 27, 2007 2:13 PM
Lugo's garbage, and we should know it. Let's say in the 'alternate career-average BABIP world' Lugo does hit .275/.342/.404 with league average defense, that still means he's not exactly good. A .746 OPS isn't worth a 4/$36 contract under any stretch of the imagination. Yet again, Theo awards a contract based on hope instead of reality.
Once again, we have team without any power whatsoever coming down the line. If the Yankees end up with Santana and we end up with Mike Lowell, I will not be happy.
#6
Posted by Daniel Rathman, November 27, 2007 3:05 PM
I agree -- I think Drew will improve because he's actually a decent player. Lugo...the guy just looks like it's the first time he's ever seen a baseball half the time.
Side-note from KNBR:
"Talks have intensified in the past 24 hours between the Red Sox and Twins, and the teams could agree to a trade involving Coco Crisp before the end of the week. Boston is believed to be interested in right-hander Matt Garza, but might also be seeking a catcher in the deal."
If we can get Garza, I'll be thrilled. (So, apparently, will Bobby Kielty...)
#7
Posted by Dave B., November 27, 2007 4:02 PM
I highly doubt the Twins would give up Garza for Crisp. That is a lot for a defensive minded outfielder.
#8
Posted by Bob, November 27, 2007 4:28 PM
Getting Garza would be excellent because of the flexibility it allows the Red Sox. You can never have enough arms and the trio of young hurlers in Garza, Lester, and Buchholz rivals what the Yankees have in Hughes, Chamberlain, and Kennedy.
Still, if Garza is what Theo gets for Crisp I would expect either him or Lester to be traded off by opening day. All three of those young guys are starters (although Garza to the bullpen to set up for Paps for a year could be intriguing) and they're all so valuable that you could probably package Garza or Lester with someone like Lowrie or Michael Bowden and get a pretty hefty return, possibly a valuable young power bat or a stud young catcher.
#9
Posted by Dan Order, November 27, 2007 4:56 PM
Speaking of the Red Sox rotation, do you guys seem them utilyzing the six-man for the Tokyo trip and the series after so that the starters have an extra day off. I know some of you oppose the idea of the six-man rotation for the year while others think it will work out nicely. I'm interested to hear what you guys think.
#10
Posted by Dave B., November 27, 2007 5:52 PM
1. 6-man rotations are dumb. Their is no evidence that it helps pitchers stay fresh or keeps them from injuries. All it does is take innings away from better pitchers.
2. The Sox are only going to send 2 starters to Japan. My guess is it is Dice-K and Wakefield. They are only playing 2 games than they have 5 days off.
#11
Posted by Bill Baldwin, November 27, 2007 7:23 PM
Okay if I comment on the original premise of this article? Thanks.
"The most ridiculed move of the Theo Epstein era could very well be the acquisition of Julio Lugo to play shortstop."
Baloney!
IMHO, the MOST ridiculed Theo Eprstein move, hands down, bar none is the Gabbard-Gagne trade.
Gagne cost us FIVE games in the heat of the pennant drive. FIVE! Julio was gold compared to Gagne during the final stretch of the regular season and in the play-offs. In Theo's defense, however, who know Gagne was all washed up at the point the trade was made? Still, The Gabbard-Gagne trade will top the short list of "Oops!" for Theo.
As for the digressions, I agree that both Lugo ("Lug Nut," I call him) and Drew will bring smiles of glee to all of red Sox Nation next year.
Happy Holidays!
#12
Posted by Dan Order, November 27, 2007 7:39 PM
Touche! Yeah you can't really top that Gagne trade, I think all of us were trying to forget that, so maybe that's why it wasn't mentioned.
#13
Posted by Dave B., November 27, 2007 9:18 PM
I have to disagree with this notion about Lugos BABIP. While it should be higher next year, this years wasn't all that much bad luck. Th guy hit less line drives, more ground balls, and less power than his norms. Their is no fluke that it went down, just that it went down THAT much.
#14
Posted by Ruffdogg, November 28, 2007 12:02 AM
Guys, Lugo is and always be an "average" short stop. This deal looks like the one Jose Offerman got a while back. I won't be surprised if Lugo ends up being a pinch runner or a late inning defensive replacement.
I don't see Lugo doing any better than he did because he is just not that good of a player.
#15
Posted by Sam, November 28, 2007 12:03 AM
imho the Lugo signing was worse than Gagne or any of his other moves ... you have to think about the moves he has made in context ... when the trade went down most everyone was patting Theo on the back for bringing in another power reliever to set-up for Paps and to take the weight off of a tired Oki ... who knew he would self destruct every time he touched the mound??
the Lugo signing on the other hand was made because supposedly there were no other options available ... he was hardly worth his contract when we signed him and he certainly isn't worth it thus far ... outside of that tho most of his moves have been solid and made pretty good sense when they went down ... he has certainly shown alot of skill in putting together a TEAM ... at least he does a better job than alot of the GMs in this leage and in the end I'm glad we have him
well ... most of the time that is lol
#16
Posted by Sam, November 28, 2007 12:09 AM
and yeah as far as Drew and Lugo improving this year ... Drew I think can be solid and I was certainly encouraged by his play in the postseason ... Lugo tho ... well ... I agree he isn't going to be anything special ... let's just hope he puts together a decent season from the 9 spot and doesn't hurt us too much
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