December 5, 2007
Jon Lester is Mike Lowell
Doesn't this scenario seem all to familiar.
Mike Lowell was the throw in for the Boston Red Sox trade when they acquired Josh Beckett, but Lester is sort of the throw in to the projected trades for Johan Santana.
Play along with me here.
Justin Masterson and Jed Lowrie are supposed to be really good in the future.¬ SUPPOSED TO BE.¬ Lester has proven to be good as of late, but can he be better.¬ Ala Lowell in this case.¬ Yes, I do understand Lowrie and Masterson are not as proven as Lester but it just seems Lester's name is being thrown in all of these trades without any regard of how good he truly is.¬ Lester is Lowell in regards to the fact that Lowell had down numbers before coming to the Red Sox and Lester has not had the numbers scouts think he is capable of in the majors.
Stay with me here.
Lester pitched one of the guttiest performances I have seen in my lifetime in baseball being a young kid who battled back from so much on the biggest stage which could have been a set up for the biggest failure in his pitching life, but did not fail pushing through the big stage and getting the win.
He has an unmeasurable grit and that cannot be analyzed with stats, but you can analyze this.
ERA: 4.57 / W-L: 4-0 / SO: 50 / IP: 63
Not the greatest of numbers but being a young lefty who has some decent numbers in the American League and can pitch in big games is being overlooked.¬ Lester could potentially be the part in the deal that Boston Red Sox fans disagree with and or flip out about at the bar or at the office.¬ Lester could be the Lowell of this Santana deal.
I do not want to see Ellsbury go, but we should also be reminded that Lester is a player that deserves that kind of attention as well.¬ Both played a valuable role in the World Series and Lester should not be overlooked either only because he is a pitcher and chicks dig the long ball.¬ Or well in this case just simply dig Ellsbury.
Discussion
48 Comments on "Jon Lester is Mike Lowell"
#1
Posted by Sean O, December 5, 2007 12:05 AM
Ok, but hear me out. FA contracts seem to be going up 20% a year or so over the past few years, and it's just getting worse. So, a $25m contract to Santana won't seem anywhere near as bad in a few years, especially when you consider that crap like Silva could be getting $10-$12m.
This would be a major loss if we don't get him.
#2
Posted by Steven Roth, December 5, 2007 12:06 AM
Jacoby Ellsbury...meet Scott Boras. Oh what? You just hired him as your agent? What the hell?
#3
Posted by Daniel Rathman, December 5, 2007 12:07 AM
Sean:
I'm actually going to take the other side of that evidence and say that the Twins just want to see if they can get a better offer. I think that if Bill Smith is fine with the Sox offer, this will get done.
#4
Posted by pete c., December 5, 2007 12:27 AM
The Yanks were smart by shutting the talks down. As Minny was asking to much for Santana. And that was before they came looking for Ian Kennedy.
As impressive as his story is, even before he got sick I never heard anyone compare Lester to a young Andy Pettitte. I think you guy's have your prospects valued a little to high.
#5
Posted by Sean O, December 5, 2007 12:44 AM
In what universe is Santana for Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera, Jeff Marquez, and Mitch Hilligoss too much? Marquez and Hilligoss aren't even in your top 10. So it's essentially Santana for Hughes straight up, which would be a no brainer, especially in Yankee Stadium.
Hughes could be anything; he could be Jake Peavy or Todd Van Poppel.
#6
Posted by Michael Edelman, December 5, 2007 12:46 AM
Pete, every team has their prospects valued too high. The Yankees are notorious for it.
#7
Posted by Dave B., December 5, 2007 12:53 AM
I have to say, Yankee fans are undervaluing Hughes. I also think they are overvaluing Joba, Kennedy, and Melky. I still believe that Hughes is going to be a better pitcher over the next 6 years than Joba. Not to say Joba will not be very good, just Hughes is a stud. This idea that Melky is anything but a bad start or good backup is dumb. The guy had a freakin .249 EqA last season. It isn't like this is an upside kind of guy either. What you see is pretty much what you get. That being said Hughes is a stud and the Yankees are right in balking at the prospect of trading him.
#8
Posted by Bob, December 5, 2007 12:53 AM
I don't think we'll be seeing Santana in Boston, according to Gammons the sense is that the Twins will now keep him. Disappointing...
#9
Posted by Daniel Rathman, December 5, 2007 1:31 AM
Interesting thought, Shawn. Little nervous about this throw-in thing now...
Also, according to the Herald, the Sox will explore trading Sexy Lips to an NL team willing to give him a shot to start. The Rox were mentioned, but I would guess that the Astros might also be interested.
Something please happen soon...
#10
Posted by Steven Roth, December 5, 2007 1:39 AM
Heyy nice to see another photo of mine headling another FB article!
Just got up to check the updates, since there's no changes, I'm done for the night. Hope we get a deal in place for tomorrow morning.
Keep Jacoby!
#11
Posted by Daniel Rathman, December 5, 2007 1:52 AM
Nothing happening tonight. Theo and Smith just "touched base and confirmed their positions." More tomorrow.
(Zach and I have a theory that Theo ate some bad potato latkes and will be stuck in the can for awhile. Cherry Pepto, anyone?)
#12
Posted by Sam, December 5, 2007 2:02 AM
cmon it's only 10pm here for crying out loud! they can't call it a night yet can they?
*sigh*
another day come and gone I guess ... heres to waking up to reports of Santana in Boston tommorrow morning
#13
Posted by Daniel Rathman, December 5, 2007 2:07 AM
'Fraid they are.
The Sox are holding an organizational meeting about Tavarez's trade value. Sounds about as fascinating as overdosing on cherry pepto as far as I'm concerned.
#14
Posted by Daniel Rathman, December 5, 2007 2:13 AM
KNBR is switching to local sports (Warriors, 49ers, Raiders...booooooring), so I'm heading to bed. The last piece of news they offered was that an AL executive told one of their sources that he believes "Santana is going to Boston, or nowhere." He also added that "if it's Boston, it's almost certainly going to be soon."
#15
Posted by Jeremy, December 5, 2007 8:37 AM
Well, Lester is little better than an unproven prospect at this point, given his "underperformance" to date (I like him a lot, I'm just being honest here) and limited games in the majors.
Are you really comparing that to a guy who was a gold-glover, World Series winner, and three time All Star?
#16
Posted by Tim, December 5, 2007 8:53 AM
I just don't agree with the comparison at all here. Lowell was at most a contract dump. The price to pay to have the privilege of the bounty Josh Beckett was Mike Lowell. Lester is the centerpiece of the proposed deal (if Elsbury isn't in the mix) not a throw in. Many people think that Lester has the potential to be a consistent 15-18 win guy for years to come.
Lowell = Apples, Lester = Oranges. No comparison here.
#17
Posted by Dave B., December 5, 2007 9:00 AM
Yeah, Lowell was a salary dump. If Lester had been the D-Train, than i think it would be a great comparison. Expensive guy that is down but should go up.
#18
Posted by Sean O, December 5, 2007 9:57 AM
If we don't get this deal done because our front office is "lukewarm" about Santana, as Edes suggests, then someone needs to be fired. We've put up with some idiotic moves before, but not doing everything possible to get Santana WILL bite us on the ass.
We had better get him now.
#19
Posted by Sean O, December 5, 2007 11:03 AM
With the Twins apparently reaching out to a number of different teams, I think this is done. I don't know if the Twins were just messing with us to increase the price all along, or if our front office didn't care to get it done, but the dreams of Santana in our uniform seems to be done.
We're going to regret this.
#20
Posted by Dave B., December 5, 2007 11:56 AM
I'm still sticking with we use our assets to make a couple of small moves.
Lowrie/Tavarez for Fuentes/Spilborghs
Coco Crisp for Gerald Larid/a pen arm
Keep Lester Masterson and Kalish who both could all be great players.
We still have an extremely strong rotation, an even better pen, and a really good bench. We also free up a good deal of cash that can be spent on position players like it should be.
I think the fact that Cashman doesn't even want to give up Hughes and the fact that Theo is balking at their current deal shows that a lot of really smart people realize Santanas value is being overrated. A flyball pitching lefty in Fenway could end extremely bad. By extermely bad i mean a high 3 ERA, but when you think that he will be making $140+ over 6-7 years it is bad.
#21
Posted by Bob, December 5, 2007 1:00 PM
I think the Lester and Pettite comparisons come from the fact that they're similarly built pitchers, tall, athletic lefties, with low-to-mid 90s fastballs, overhand curves and good cutters.
#22
Posted by Sean O, December 5, 2007 1:06 PM
The Twins couldn't possibly think that Lester, Coco, Masterson, and Lowrie and an extra $10m in payroll is worth more than a year of Santana in an unwinnable division and 2 draft picks.
#24
Posted by Daniel Rathman, December 5, 2007 1:09 PM
KNBR:
"The Twins have decided to hold on to Johan Santana, at least for the next month, perhaps hoping that the market will change at some point this offseason."
Also,
"The Red Sox, temporarily out of the Santana market, may now shift their focus to A's right-hander Dan Haren. There are rumors that Theo Epstein is scheduled for a conference call with Billy Beane this evening, though other players -- Bobby Crosby, Dan Johnson, Rich Harden -- may be the focus of those discussions."
Darn.
#25
Posted by Sean O, December 5, 2007 1:20 PM
No. Haren. Christ, we'll have to give up more for Haren for a dramatically worse pitcher.
No. Haren.
#26
Posted by Shawn Medeiros, December 5, 2007 1:50 PM
I know it was sort of a stretch but I was just thinking in terms of the trade ... no one is talking about Lester and no one talked about Lowell either.
That was my main point.
#27
Posted by Dan Order, December 5, 2007 2:48 PM
How much can we believe the KNBR reports? Hopefully they got it wrong. Like Sean said, it would be in the Twins best interest to trade Santana rather then only getting the draft pick compensation. I don't think a month will do anything to the market. Especially from the Red Sox standpoint. They have 6 starters right now and won't be in a desperate position. The teams that are in the Santana race will likely get pitchers such as Haren, Blanton, and Bedard.
#28
Posted by Sean O, December 5, 2007 4:00 PM
"UPDATE, 12-5-07 at 2:48pm: BP's John Perrotto talked to a Twins official, and it definitely looks like the Meetings will end without a Johan deal. Perrotto says he's still likely to be dealt before Spring Training."
Fuck. this sucks.
#29
Posted by Sam, December 5, 2007 4:21 PM
disappointing ... to say the least ... but really I can understand why the Twins are doing this ...
They have a great player who every team wants ... but not a great trading piece because not everyone can afford him ... so their options are limited and theyre not getting a package they think will compensate for their loss
By waiting longer they hope the market will change and someone will top the Red Sox offer ... the Red Sox are being patient because for 1) they aren't desperate to add another pitcher that they will have to pay over 100 million dollars ... and 2) they think the market is not going to change and that the Twins themselves are going to get desperate and will accept their offer
I honestly have no clue whats going to happen from here on out ... I do not buy for a second this "we can still keep him and compete next year" crap from the Twins ... they know this division is only getting stronger and they are not going to compete ... and I really do think Santana still gets traded this offseason ... but they are apparently going to hold on till they think they can get the best offer
Very frustrating for us as fans but I like the way this has been handled by our FO ... we have not cracked on our offers just because we got impatient or because other teams were making big deals ... and in the end we are still in a good position to acquire him if no one else makes a better offer ... we'll just have to watch it play out ... hopefully they can still get some other stuff done down there and add a couple role players to fill our our roster if nothing else big happens
#30
Posted by Sean O, December 5, 2007 4:29 PM
I'm upset because in the course of a day we went from the absolute easy favorite for the World Series to probably the third best team in the league. Indians are only getting stronger, and the Tigers are now ridiculously stacked. If we had Santana, I could overlook having Lowell, Lugo, Varitek and Drew in our lineup. Now, not so much.
Even with Ellsbury and Clay and players who should recover from a bad '07, we're probably not as good next year as we were this year due to random luck. This would've insured us against a lot of problems.
Dammit.
#31
Posted by Rick, December 5, 2007 4:44 PM
Bill Smith is being plain greedy. He got a package that resolved a lot of issues for him with low cost high quality players and for a fair trade in Johan. But he wants more. There's just no satisfying a greedy person. We'll have to wait until he comes to the realization that he's found his market price. The only question is, will the Red Sox, or anyone else for that matter, be around or even willing to pay it by the time he's ready to talk logically?
#32
Posted by Zach, December 5, 2007 4:56 PM
MLBTradeRumors.com, citing a trusted New York sportswriter, says the Twins have attempted to initiate talks on a three-year deal that would net them Dan Haren, send Johan Santana to the Mets and Jose Reyes to the A's.
It's a huge long shot, but it is the kind of deal the Twins should have been aiming for in the first place if they wanted to stay in contention. This rumor has the A's also sending Bobby Crosby and Dan Johnson to the Mets, while getting Kevin Mulvey back. Hector Pellot would go to the Twins.
#33
Posted by Sean O, December 5, 2007 4:56 PM
The problem I see is that too many teams will be around at that point. Now that Cabrera's off the table, people are going to realize their team has no chance of competing without a major move. I wanted Santana's deal dead and buried so we could focus on making sure the rest of our team is set.
Now, not gonna happen.
#34
Posted by Sam, December 5, 2007 5:01 PM
Smith is not being greedy ... he's trying to trade a player who only wants to go to 2 teams and who wants to get paid alot of money once he gets there ... he's trying not to get fleeced by teams who know he's in a bad spot
Of course I would agree he has held this out too long ... when the Yankees left the negotiations ... thats when he blew it ... now he has very little leverage to work with and if the Sox pull out he is gonna have a tough time whipping up some new talks ... because no matter how long he waits only so many teams can afford this guy ... he's in a tough spot
When this offseason started I really thought he would be held onto until midseason ... but I didn't count on Johan being so vocal about his demands or the Twins playoff hopes going out the window ... now Im pretty sure he will get traded before the season starts ... I dunno where but I think the Twins have to trade him somewhere ... hopefully we leave some kind of offer on the table just to keep the option open ... we'll see
#35
Posted by Zach, December 5, 2007 5:14 PM
From Cleveland.com's baseball blog:
Boston and the Yankees have reportedly withdrawn from the Johan Santana sweepstakes. Perhaps a cooling off period is needed.
Take it FWIW but I'd gather we're officially done. Even if we get back into this later other teams like the Angels, Dodgers and Yankees will be back in the fold. Sad.
#36
Posted by Shane, December 5, 2007 5:32 PM
I'm disappointed we're not getting Johan, but I think the package offered was fair. If the Twins didn't want it, then they can leave it.
#37
Posted by Dave B., December 5, 2007 5:52 PM
I'm with Shane on this one. I would love to have Santana, but only at some point. We gave them an offer that is well within what the Twins should be expecting to get for a guy they can't afford. Theo is doing a great job in this and i hope he doesn't fold.
I don't want to sit here and come off like i'm off overrating our prospects or underrating Santana as a player. I just think people are forgetting about the money aspect of this. 4 or 5 players making the minimum is a lot to give up for a $150 M best pitcher in baseball.
#38
Posted by Dan Order, December 5, 2007 6:48 PM
Plus, the chances are that if the Red Sox don't get Santana this offseason, he won't be dealt. I'm not sure if that has changed, but that's what has been said. If that is the case then we will have next year to get him.
#39
Posted by Dave B., December 5, 2007 8:08 PM
Here is what i dont understand about you guys. You didn't want A-Rod because of the money and his "choking" but Santana has those qualities as well. He is going to cost probably $150+ M and is notorious for slowing down towards the end of the season.
If we had came in before the Yankees came back into the fold, the Sox could have had him around 8 years $30M per. So A-Rod would have cost a little less than 100 M, but when you think about the fact we wouldn't have signed Lowell it is really like $50M. That really isn't all that bad.
Also, with A-Rod we could have kept our prospects. $30M per can easily be offset by have 3 more players making the minimum. What is a better combo? A-Rod, Crisp, Lester, Lowrie, Masterson, Kalish, and $250M or Lowell, Santana and $190M?
Futhermore, A-Rod actually would have fixed the problem. We need offense a heck of a lot more than defense. With our team right now i would much rather have the best hitter than the best pitcher.
I'm sorry, i just don't understand where you guys are coming from. You have a "No A-Rod Campaign" but are dying for Santana. It just doesn't make sense to me.
#40
Posted by Evan Brunell, December 5, 2007 8:28 PM
" Yahoo! Sports' Tim Brown said talks between the Red Sox and Twins regarding a Johan Santana deal are back on as of Wednesday evening."
#41
Posted by JaredK, December 5, 2007 8:46 PM
Well it is a knock to our chances to win a world series next year but we will still be in the mix and our chances to win in 2010 - 2014 will likely be better.
#42
Posted by JaredK, December 5, 2007 8:49 PM
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ti-santanaupdate120507&prov=yhoo&type=lgns
According to this it is still looking pretty good for the Sox...not sure how reliable Tim Brown is
#43
Posted by Daniel Rathman, December 5, 2007 9:26 PM
Jared:
Tim Brown is fairly reliable. He tends to have good info on Rumors. Not the greatest writer out there, but if he says talks are back on, I'd bet that they are.
Good to know!
Meanwhile, now that it looks like nothing is imminent regarding Santana, KNBR has shifted to full local sports mode with much of the talk coming from call-ins who threaten to break out in tears if the Giants deal Lincecum for Alex Rios. Un-listen-able. Doesn't look like they'll be talking Santana anytime soon -- which is a good thing for me, b/c I can actually turn off the damn radio now.
#44
Posted by Daniel Rathman, December 5, 2007 9:29 PM
From the St. Paul Pioneer Press:
"Santana will be traded next week or next month, but not today or tomorrow."
This comes from a reporter who spoke directly to Bill Smith earlier today.
#45
Posted by Sean O, December 5, 2007 9:38 PM
I have no faith in Lester at all, at all, and I think his upside is that of a fifth starter, so that's a bummer. Glad Kalish wasn't involved, Masterson does nothing for me (future reliever, whoop-de-doo), and watch Theo trade Coco for some pile of crap like Gerald Laird. And we don't have the sack to play Lowrie instead of wifebeater.
This is a big hit compared to what could have been, both in '08 and over the next 6 years. Now we spend that $25m on what, more crap like Lowell, Lugo and Drew?
Disappointing.
#46
Posted by Daniel Rathman, December 5, 2007 9:47 PM
One thing that I forgot to mention was that KNBR apparently heard whispers of a minor concern about Lester's medicals. Their source however, noted that it wasn't a sticking point in negotiations.
The sense I'm getting is that the Sox are hearing a lot of "maybe-s" and very few "yes-es" and "no-s" from the Twins. Bill Smith is stalling...and it sounds like there's not much Theo can do about it.
FWIW, KNBR's sources still maintain that the "framework is essentially done." I think I might've been interpreting "framework" a little too optimistically yesterday though. Now back to more pining and whining from the local Giants fans. Ugh, just fire Sabean and be done with it, dammit.
#47
Posted by Michael Edelman, December 5, 2007 10:23 PM
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ti-santanaupdate120507&prov=yhoo&type=lgns
Sounds like the Red Sox are feeling much better about their chances now. They still think they're the favorites. The Twins are going to take their time, they have one of the best pitchers in baseball and will only get to deal him once. But given the lack of interested parties, there's a rather good chance the Red Sox deal will be the best on the table when all is said and done. I think it's mostly a matter of whether the Twins will accept it.
I can't be excited about this anymore. As of now, I'm assuming we're not going to get Santana. If we don't, we'll likely still be favorites again next year. If we do somehow get him though, great. I'll be obviously excited and I'd put our chances to repeat realistically at around 3-1.
#48
Posted by Daniel Rathman, December 5, 2007 11:45 PM
A KNBR source notes that "if the Twins return to the negotiating table with Santana, they'll likely find him unwilling to accept an extension worth less than $150 million over 6 years. There's little to no chance of them offering that much, so expect Santana to be dealt before Spring Training."
Division Rivals
Regional Teams
- "It's amazing how many club officials read...Fire Brand of the American League." - Peter Gammons
- "Run by Evan Brunell...this has perspective and weight to it that goes against the stereotype of the screaming Red Sox fan." - Deadspin
- "For in-depth coverage and analysis of everything that happens with the Boston Red Sox, you canβt beat Fire Brand of the American League!" - David Pinto
-
Mike Lowell
2008 Fire Brand
- View past Fire Brands
Leave a comment