December 21, 2007
Early 2008 Predictions
Since we’re experiencing one of the slower months of the off-season with the hot stove cooling down, the winter holidays in the near future and the Santana sweepstakes coming to a grinding halt, I’ve decided to look directly to the 2008 season. Many players unexpectedly performed way above expectations and shocked the entire fan base en route to a World Series triumph: Mike Lowell, Dustin Pedroia, Josh Beckett and Hideki Okajima to name a few. Some players, but just a few, underachieved most of the season: J.D. Drew, Julio Lugo, Coco Crisp and Joel Pineiro (remember him?). For 2008, here are some predictions in the Red Sox march to repeat coupled with bold statements I’ll surely regret when the fat lady sings on the 2008 season:
Jason Varitek will become a nine-spot hitter in 2008.
The attributes Jason Varitek brings the table in terms of leadership, game-calling and pitcher preparation have been well-documented and well-deserved. Jason doesn’t wear the C on his chest because he’s the best player on the team, he wears it because he’s the leader of the team. Even if the man has some faults (too many fastballs), it’s no coincidence every pitcher mentions Varitek when talking to the media after a great performance on the mound- starter or reliever.
That said, Captain Varitek is going to experience a freefall next season and we’ll be questioning whether he should be extended or if the Red Sox front office should look in another direction. We’ll risk losing the leadership, but the bat could be upgraded even if finding an above average catcher is a rare commodity. Varitek saw his OBP go up last season but the power is slowly zapping out of his bat. Next year, it could dip down even below .400. The upper-cut swing, propensity to chase breaking balls out the zone and slow bat will catch up to the catcher. Hopefully someone emerges so we never have to see Varitek hit in the six or seven spot at any point in 2008.
J.D. Drew will EXPLODE in 2008.
Maybe not at the same height as he did in his one and only year in Atlanta, but I can see Drew replicating the 145 OPS+ season he had with the Dodgers in limited at-bats. This time, it’ll be spread over a 140 game campaign (cross your fingers). That year, Drew totaled .286/.412/.520, a line I can see him replicating now that he got the monkey off his back in the postseason and is learning American League pitchers. The rookie season was, for all intents and purposes, a disappointment. Drew will put that season behind him, work with hitting coach Dave Magadan on going the other way and to centerfield (the game 6 Slam a prime example) while piling up the doubles and walks.
Clay Buchholz will be the rotation’s second half MVP.
This is dependent on whether the Red Sox acquire Johan Santana or hold off. If my prediction the Sox end up keeping Ellsbury comes to fruition, I can see Buchholz stepping into the rotation around mid-May, getting a feel for the workload and becoming unstoppable after the All-Star Break.
The league is still very unfamiliar with his stuff, and the secondary pitches he features (change and curve) are flat out nasty. The future Red Sox ace will be even more valuable than Josh Beckett in the second half and help one of the top rotations in baseball tame a hitting-loaded American League. I see Buchholz compiling a second half of around 10-2 with a 3.20 ERA.
Jon Lester will take off next season.
Another reason why I’m skeptical we really have to make the Santana deal. Under no circumstances should Lester and Ellsbury be packaged together, and I’m even worried about either going separately to Minnesota. Lester won’t be more than a #2/#3 starter but that’s still a huge jump from the average numbers he’s put up the last two seasons at a young age.
Lester may very well harness his control problems, lower the runners allowed and jack up the K/9 rate to become a force on the mound. We saw the glimpses of what Lester can provide in Game 4 of the World Series- the accelerating fastball, the cut fastball in on the hands, the devastating splitter- and why Lester has been a top prospect in the organization since he was drafted. If we hold on to Lester, even at the risk of Santana joining the Yankees, a rotation of Beckett/Buchholz/Matsuzaka/Lester/Schilling/Wakefield , by September, could still be the best in all of baseball. If we trade him to Minnesota, they’ll have a prime #2 starter candidate on their hands at only 23 years old and with many years to mature.
Manny Delcarmen will supplant Hideki Okajima as the eighth inning go-to guy.
I love The Trampoline. I have huge man crushes on MDC and Rajon Rondo and often times I question whether or not that’s healthy. But all bias aside, I truly believe Delcarmen has the tools to become one of the most feared relief pitchers the game has to offer. As the league becomes relegated to Okajima’s stuff (not saying he’ll fall off the face of the earth, but he won’t be nearly as dominant) Delcarmen may get the calls from Terry Francona in the eighth inning of big games this upcoming season. In 44 innings in 2007, Delcarmen posted a 2.05 ERA, 41 K, just 17 BB and a 1.02 WHIP. Those are tremendous statistics to go along with a tremendous repertoire of pitches for just a 25-year old.
Any bold statements from our readers?
Discussion
15 Comments on "Early 2008 Predictions"
#1
Posted by Ethan Michaels, December 21, 2007 12:36 AM
Real quick...
Varitek will bat 8th, Drew will improve but not that much, Buchholz is NOT Beckett but he'll pitch well in big games, Lester will be dealt, Okajima will still be the number one set up guy.
#3
Posted by Sam, December 21, 2007 12:55 AM
I predict that Curt Schilling's blog will get far more media coverage than than any of the starts he makes this season
#5
Posted by Daniel Rathman, December 21, 2007 2:28 AM
1. Julio Lugo's wife will beat him up and force him out the lineup for an extended period, giving us a glimpse of Jed Lowrie (assuming he's not traded for Santana). Lowrie will win over RSN and Lugo will be released.
2. Johan will go to the Yankees. In the game that decides the AL East race, on Sunday 9/28/08, he'll get bombed for six runs in five innings, with Buchholz picking up the clinching win for the Sox.
3. JD Drew will hit .280/.380/.480 with 18HR, 40 doubles, and 90 RBI.
4. Totally agree on Delcarmen. Farrell thinks so too.
5. Dice-K will emerge as a solid number-two starter next year by using his secondary pitches more often.
6. Clay Buchholz will win the ROY, and will steal more bases next season than Lowell, Varitek, Papi, and Manny combined.
#6
Posted by Daniel Rathman, December 21, 2007 2:29 AM
(This iota of optimism brought to you by Sudafed.)
#7
Posted by Shane, December 21, 2007 9:23 AM
I think your second half number for Buchholz are a little far-fetched, be I hope you're right.
#8
Posted by Ric, December 21, 2007 10:55 AM
lowell will surprise everyone by batting .300 again next season. he seems made for fenway so theres no reason he'll tail off.
#10
Posted by Dan Order, December 21, 2007 2:05 PM
I can see Youkilis hitting over .300 if he works on increasing his stamina this offseason. (He hit .238 after the all-star break last year)
#11
Posted by Bob, December 21, 2007 2:53 PM
Totally agree about MDC, he's a bullpen ace in the making now that he seems to have finally figured it out.
I'm high on Buchholz and Lester too, I think the one thing that people consistently underrate about Jon is his athleticism and how well he deals with adversity. I'm not talking about the cancer thing, Lester seems to have an uncanny ability to wiggles out of jams (he creates a lot of them himself, though) and in the playoffs we really saw him refuse to back down. There's a lot of odds against young pitchers, but it really helps when you've got ice water going like Buchholz and Lester. Don't see either of them getting beaten by bugs.
Additional predictions, Dustin will continue to improve, and along with Ellsbury will provide the team with a ton of energy (the team seemed lethargic at times last year, with these two in the order it's not happening). Also, I agree on Drew, I expect big things and a move to the 5 spot. Lowell will hit .285 with 20 homers and 90-something rbis from the 6 spot. And something not to be overlooked, Julio Lugo will improve to become one of the best 9-hole hitters in the league (that's half a joke, half not, but I'm trying to be as optimistic as possible on Lugo)
#12
Posted by Bob, December 21, 2007 2:59 PM
Oh and one more, Dice-K makes a Beckett like jump and wins 20 games finishing in the top-3 in the AL in Ks. He was one of the best strikeout guys in the league last year and with his work-ethic and a year under his belt he should improve, he's still young.
#13
Posted by JaredK, December 21, 2007 4:01 PM
MDC will be good although I do get concerned about his psyche at times...his change-up looked awesome at times and will get hitters a bit of his fastball. If he continues to develop that change and improves his command a little, especially with his great curve, he will be fantastic.
I really hope we just keep all of our pitchers/prospects and get out of the Santana sweepstakes...really can't wait to see Bucholz and Lester, I am higher then most on this board with Lester and still see him having the potential to be a #2 once he is fully healthy...he is a perfectionist and has a great work ethic, a little uptick in his strength/health and control and he should be a good one ...keep the kids and save the 140 million or use the chips down the road for a corner outfield or infield power bat. I rather have too much pitching with upside these days when Carols Silva is getting 4 years and 48 million (I do realize that makes Santana a bargain at 22/23 mil...still, if he is 16-17% of your payroll and gets injured or does not dominante in the AL East...).
#14
Posted by Schulz, December 22, 2007 2:46 PM
The great thing about this group going into 2008 is that they have the potential to do some amazing things.
Beckett can put up numbers that make him worthy of a Cy Young award.
Dice-K can improve on last season and be the best #2 SP in baseball.
Our young hurlers (Lester and Buccholz) can develop into formidable pitchers at the ML level.
Youk could hit .300-.315 and be an OBP / RBI machine.
Pedroia can continue his development, and continue his success getting on base as a slap hitter.
Ellsbury could hit .310-.330 (maybe) at leadoff.
Ortiz+Manny could put up a monster season of slugging.
Drew could hit over .300 and approach 100 RBI and 25/30 HR
Lowell has the ability to put up another season like last year, although he will probably tail off a little bit.
Papelbon will be his usual self, and Oki + Delcarmen will tag-team the set-up roll on the team.
If even half of these possibilites pan out, we're talking about a repeat contender
#15
Posted by Gerry, December 24, 2007 11:35 PM
Your comments are on the money. I see no downside with this talented class which, while still growing and maturing, are already proven successes and World Series winners.
Last year, Youk, Pedroia, Ellsbury, Delcarmen, Papelbon, Lester, Buckholz, Okajima, Matsuzaka were all "rookies" or confirming their credentials. Drew was new to the league and had multiple problems not of his making. They ALL get it now. They are really good major leaguers. They are going to improve personnally, and they are going to continue to meld and improve as a team.
This youth movement was not a risk, as it was supported and led by an all star cast like Manny, Papi, the Captain (who will be around a few more years), Schlling, Timlin, Wakefield, Tavarez, Lopez, Snyder.
Now, these successful veterans, together with these successful "rookies", will support and lead the latest prospects to come up and perform well in an exciting, confident, hopeful environment. We have the right formula, and will repeat and repeat.
Santana can only hurt this formula. $1,000,000 per win and gutting our youth movement isn't worth it. Let the Yankees give up their talent and $$.
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