January 28, 2008
Course of action for the Red Sox: Trade for Khalil Greene
On Friday, we looked at the 2008 ZiPS projections for the Red Sox, which sees the Red Sox as the best team in the American League.
I'm not seeing it. I see some flaws --- big ones. Fortunately, we can correct (or minimize) these flaws.
To me, there are two courses of action we can take here. One involves minimal impact but could end up being huge. The second is a pretty drastic course of action.
Option 1: Find one more bat on the bench via free agency.
Ryan Klesko, whom we discussed earlier this year, is still a free agent. He would be a great low-cost solution for the Red Sox that could take over Brandon Moss' projection role. It increases the depth of the Red Sox's ability to weather any lack of offense from the outfield as we can then call Moss up to the majors if we have to. However, ZiPS projects a .242/.336/.370 line from Klesko, embarrassingly lower than Moss' (.264/.334/.424).
We could also go after a personal favorite of mine, Brad Wilkerson (because he gets on base). Playing in Montreal/Washington, he was dealt to Texas in the Alfonso Soriano trade and struggled through a few bouts of injury. A free agent, he's looking for a three-year deal at $21 million and getting no bites (although I wouldn't be surprised to see him end up in San Diego). [Note: please use this mention of San Diego as some foreshadowing, please. Thanks.]
Wilkerson, who will be 31, is projected to hit .236/.332/.435. Yikes, that's not good, and I really have a hard time believing he'll pull that off. This past year, he hit .234/.319/.467, and again, had both of his seasons in Texas marred by injury. As a bench player, I would expect him to hit closer to his .250/.354/.451 career line, and if he's healthy again, he could reach those numbers easily. (Although now that Erik Bedard looks to be heading to Seattle, he instantly becomes the most likely choice in Seattle.)
That's a low-risk, low-profile option. Sign a free agent bat, with two possibilities being Klesko and Wilkerson. (Click here for Zach's take on three other bench options.) But don't you think that something more needs to be done to interject some offense into this club?
Look, the 2003 Red Sox were an incredible offensive machine. We can't deny that, and we can't expect the Red Sox to sustain that offense, not when additional attention is made towards keeping Boston a well-balanced team with hitting, pitching, defense and speed. I agree with making it a balanced team. We were balanced last year, we will be balanced this year --- but I think less balanced. I think we'll have more flaws on the offense and less room for error. And I think those flaws can and will be exposed, largely due to injury and/or attrition.
That's why I want the Red Sox to bring in their sixth starting shortstop in six years.
Option 2: Package Julian Tavarez, Coco Crisp, Julio Lugo, cash to the San Diego Padres for Khalil Greene and .
Note: I have heard no such rumors. This is conjecture on my part.
This is more likely than you think.
"A long-term contract with Khalil at this time is probably doubtful," said GM Kevin Towers. "I don't know, it might not be able to get done. Khalil's family is on the East Coast and I think there are some health concerns." (San Diego Union-Tribune)
Geoff Young at Ducksnorts tackles The Khalil Conundrum --- whether or not to trade Khalil. In it, he says this:
For the club to take a loss at shortstop... they would need to make gains elsewhere. Pitching and center field seem to be the logical choices, but good luck finding anyone willing to trade impact players at those positions.
Oh really, Geoff?
The Padres are always looking for more pitching (especially with their starting pitchers being Greg Maddux, Jake Peavy, Chris Young, Randy Wolf, Mark Prior, Glendon Rusch, Shawn Estes --- the latter four all injury question marks). Julian Tavarez could start the season off as a starter while Mark Prior fully rehabs and once Prior steps in, Tavarez could shift to the bullpen. Tavarez provides great insurance for the Padres.
The Padres also need a left-fielder or a centerfielder, as Geoff would have you think. Acquiring Coco Crisp and his sensational range and speed would be a boon in the cavernous Petco Park. Crisp's seeming inability to hit for power is marginalized at Petco where the game trends towards getting singles and doubles and moving around the basepaths. It would also enable fragile Jim Edmonds to shift to left-field, limiting his fading defensive prowess from too much exposure.
Lastly, Julio Lugo takes over for Greene. Everything I said about Crisp can be said about Lugo. The fact of the matter is that Petco really takes away from the homerun hitters, and while I'm not advocating that the Padres simply forget about trying to hit homeruns, I do believe that the gain of Tavarez, Crisp and Lugo would offset the loss of Greene, who can smack the ball out of the park on occasion.
Last year, Greene hit .254/.291/.468 and 27 HR. Yikes. This was a step back from a year ago, when he hit .245/.320/.427. (ZiPS has him at .249/.300/.442 with 20 HR in 2008.)
What were Greene's numbers away from Petco? Glad you asked. He's at a .288/.322/.519.
Looking a whole lot sexier already, isn't he? Greene's career line on the road is .280/.335/.515 and at Petco is .228/.288/.370 (boy, Petco really taketh away).
There's no question that Greene could be better than he is if he got taken out of Petco, and also no question that his inability to hit at Petco sags his trade value because his numbers look nowhere as good. His defense is pretty good, too. He ranked fourth in all of baseball in fielding percentage, committing 11 errors. His 4.38 Range Factor checks in at 14th --- middle of the pack --- and his Zone Rating of .855 ranks fourth. Works for me.
As for the pitcher... well, we need to get a pitcher in return so we don't get thin depth, do we? Picking Justin Hampson might be a good idea as he seems like he's out of place in San Diego with nowhere to go. The 27-year old lefty could take over for Tavarez (or Javier Lopez or Kyle Snyder) in the bullpen. He turned in a pretty impressive season, hurling 53.1 IP of a 2.70 ERA. I used the depth chart of the Padres on Rotoworld to identify Hampson as someone to target. In the end, however, this part is interchangeable --- as long as we get a serviceable major league pitcher.
Greene would be under our control for two more years before becoming a free agent. He has a desire to go back to the East Coast for family, he's shown that he hits great on the road and he has good defense. He could slot in the No. 6 or 7 slot great in our lineup.
To compensate for the loss of Coco Crisp, you refer to Option 1 outlined above and carry Brandon Moss as well... or you bring in Shannon Stewart, Kenny Lofton, Trot Nixon orBobby Kielty, I don't really care. Someone who can catch the ball as a backup.
Really, this trade makes so much sense to me (from the Red Sox's perspective) that I really hope Theo picks the phone up now. I told him to pick up the phone last year and sign J.D. Drew. Pick it up again, Theo. Call Kevin Towers.
I'm not seeing any downside to this.
Discussion
20 Comments on "Course of action for the Red Sox: Trade for Khalil Greene"
#1
Posted by Jaredk, January 28, 2008 12:00 AM
I see him going to the Cubs for Cedeno and Murton. Towers has mentioned he likes Murton and is after a RF'er, indicating that he expects Edmonds to hold down CF for at least this year. Cedeno has proved all he can at triple-A and while he does not draw walks he can't be any worse the Greene in that dept. The Cubs can hope that the road splits for Greene hold-up outside Petco and if they get Roberts from baltimore they will have a pretty damn talented infield.
#2
Posted by Joe, January 28, 2008 8:43 AM
Unless Kevin Towers gets hit with a case of the stupids this isn't happening. Tavarez is nothing and Towers knows that and even if you are on the Lugo bandwagon why would you take three more years of Lugo in the hope that he turns it around.
That leaves you with Coco for Greene and I don't see that happening (though I'd love it). But if YOU were Kevin Towers, would you deal Khalil Greene for Coco Crisp? I wouldn't. Kevin Towers is well aware of how good Greene is and would expect appropriate value in return.
I like the idea of getting Greene, but I suspect you're looking at Ellsbury plus something to get him.
#3
Posted by Tim Daloisio, January 28, 2008 9:33 AM
I see absolutely no reason that this would be something Towers would consider. I too think Lugo is a big question mark in this lineup this year, but I also think his defense is much better than he gets credit for and he can't be worse than last year.
I appreciate you tossing out an opinion of something you would propose, but I think its better to save that wild conjecture for the trade deadline and the sports radio talk lines.
#4
Posted by Sean O, January 28, 2008 10:56 AM
Tavarez would have a sub-4 ERA at PETCO. Going to AAAA in the most extreme pitcher's park in recent baseball history, he'd tear it up.
Remember that he had 2 months starting this year with a 3.5 ERA, in the hardest division of the real league. And meanwhile, we get a player with a sub-.300 OBP in AAAA who is already 28?
I don't want Greene, I'd rather be stuck with Lugo, and I hate Lugo.
#5
Posted by TheScout, January 28, 2008 1:02 PM
I agree with Joe. I'd be glad to sell, but I don't think Towers would be buying
#6
Posted by Jaredk, January 28, 2008 1:42 PM
We just aquitred David Aardsma from the White Sox for Willy Mota and Miguel Socclovich. Not sure Aardsma is an upgrade on what Hansen could offer but whatever I guess. Mota was a converted infielder who throws in the mid nineties and did pretty well in his first year as a pitcher.
#7
Posted by Joe, January 28, 2008 1:54 PM
I like the addition of Aardsma strictly from the "throw enough crap at the wall and see what sticks" point of view. Relievers are so random that you stick him in Pawtucket and if he does well maybe you catch a little Bryan Corey thing for a few weeks mid-season.
#8
Posted by Sean O, January 28, 2008 1:57 PM
So Theo is alive. I like the move, why the hell not. Finding a reliever who strikes out 10 per 9 is not easy, even if his BB rates are atrocious. He's 26, with plenty of room to improve.
#9
Posted by Daniel Rathman, January 28, 2008 2:00 PM
Aardsma has 85K in 85.1 innings of work the last few years, so he's got setup man potential. Now if only he'd figure out how to not walk 45 batters over the same span...
Definitely worth a pickup, especially since the two guys going to the ChiSox are long-shots to ever make the bigs. He's out of options though, so he's either on the team, or well...gone.
#10
Posted by Sean O, January 28, 2008 2:04 PM
I may be highly critical of our moves sometimes, but holy crap, have you ever seen a team with more depth than this one? Redundancy after redundancy. If Lowell goes down, we have Youkilis. If Youk goes down, we have Carter. If anyone gets hurt in the outfield, we have Coco and Moss. For pitching, we have 6 starters, with Masterson and Bowden available for spot starts.
Catcher is really the only worry spot, but it's not like Tek provides unbelievable production back there, so he's replaceable. nice.
#11
Posted by Mostly Running., January 28, 2008 2:33 PM
Sean,
I just pasted that comment into a sticky. I'm happy to see the optimist in you, and I'll pull the quote out in May when you are calling for a lynching of Lowell.
I like the throw it at the wall approach with the bullpen, but the ones who have stuck lately have spent time in the system. I'm still optimistic about this one though.
MR
#12
Posted by Sean O, January 28, 2008 2:43 PM
Hey, I said we had depth, I didn't say we have much starpower. I'm only so optimistic. I guess I wish our backups were a little farther away from our starters, since I don't really know how much better youkilis, lowell and lugo will be to carter and lowrie. But, at least they can pretty easily step in if need be.
With that said, I am extremely worried about our offense in 2009 and forward. Lowell will be well below average, while Drew, Manny (if we sign him) and Ortiz will be that much older. At some point, we're going to either need a huge FA signing for power, or a big trade.
#13
Posted by Evan Brunell, January 28, 2008 2:45 PM
Sean, did you not see Khalil's road splits? That OBP is because of Petco.
#14
Posted by Sean O, January 28, 2008 2:52 PM
I see them, and I don't care. His road OBP is .322, in AAAA. Sure his overall numbers are brought down by PETCO, but put him in a real baseball league, and he's going to be a .250/.310/.460 hitter. In turn, we'd have to give up an 8 WARP player to get him? Why not just keep Lugo, if we want an out machine at short so much?
#15
Posted by josh o., January 28, 2008 4:45 PM
I like greene, but I'd rather keep lugo and move tavarez/coco for a different chip. This is not necessarily a statistical opinion, but sometimes the revolving door of shortstops over the past several years has been absurd. The Red Sox obviously saw something in Lugo that they loved, why don't we give him a second year to see if he can string it all together?
#16
Posted by Sam, January 28, 2008 5:31 PM
I don't see this being a deal that would do much for us ... the difference between Lugo and Greene isn't big enough for us to have to add two more Major Leaguers IMO ... it'd basically be a dump of Lugo's salary in the end ... I'd rather live with Lugo and use Tavarez and Coco as chips in other places
Sorry Evan ... Usually I tend agree to agree with your proposals but this time it just seems like you are throwing another name out there to get some convo going ... lol I guess I can't blame you tho ... Hot Stove has been awful since the Winter Meetings
btw Aardsma sounds like a good acquisition ... He's young and you can always use more relievers ... last year we had to suffer thru Pineiro and Romero but we found Oki so you never know ... hopefully this works out well
#17
Posted by Gerry, January 29, 2008 1:29 AM
Greene at Fenway makes sense, as do Coco and Tavarez shining in San Diego, for all the reasons you stated.
Further, as Greene would benefit from moving east, Coco would be going home to SoCal. What a shot in the arm for both of them: their own ocean, and in parks that are made for their unique skill sets. They might surprise even themselves with their production.
But, IMO and that of his hitting coach from his Tampa glory days, don't count Lugo out quite yet. He reports that Julio overcompensated during a tough transition by going for The Wall at Fenway, which messed him up, which contributed to his fielding woes. He expects a full recovery and more balanced approach, with good numbers and defense, even better than the end of last year. And, from the nine hole, he doesn't need all that much pop. If he can get on, he can steal second, drive the pitcher crazy, and score on a single to the OF by Jacoby or Dustin.
And, hopefully, Jed Lowrie will be waiting for his chance, perhaps next year's Ellsbury. Though I like Greene, and what he may do at Fenway, Julio and/or Lowrie may get the job done as well or better. Where art thou, Hanley?
On the other hand, Klesko, and Trot Nixon are good choices, with Brandon Moss in the wings, and so is Wilkerson, but 21M for 3, even for a brilliant bench player, which he isn't, seems too rich.
What about Tavarez for Hamson?
#18
Posted by Gerry, January 30, 2008 12:24 AM
fyi, I just read the Sox offer for Wilkerson is 1year at 2M. He got 4.35M last year in TX, where he hit 20HR in 119 games, and is considered a good OF and 1b defensively. At 2M he would be a prime candidate for us, but he is, as you say, waiting on the Bedard deal, as he would rather play full time.
#19
Posted by OBG08: Scott Hairston, January 30, 2008 10:53 AM
[...] Greene wouldn’t fetch such a lofty package, of course, but when folks start suggesting that Coco Crisp and assorted scraps might be a reasonable offer, maybe it’s time to consider other options, like hanging onto the guy, getting some use out [...]
#20
Posted by Padres Extend Greene, February 3, 2008 11:06 AM
[...] to a 2-year, $11 million deal. Greene, who had been eligible for arbitration and the subject of wild Boston fan fantasies, now can go back to his regular gig of just being the Padres’ shortstop. Tags: arbitration, [...]
Division Rivals
Regional Teams
- "It's amazing how many club officials read...Fire Brand of the American League." - Peter Gammons
- "Run by Evan Brunell...this has perspective and weight to it that goes against the stereotype of the screaming Red Sox fan." - Deadspin
- "For in-depth coverage and analysis of everything that happens with the Boston Red Sox, you can’t beat Fire Brand of the American League!" - David Pinto
-
Mike Lowell
2008 Fire Brand
- View past Fire Brands
Leave a comment