February 1, 2008
Quick PECOTA reaction
Some quick and dirty reactions to the PECOTA predictions of Red Sox players:
- For those who wanted Sean Casey over Chris Carter, Carter is projected to hit .259/.325/.394 with a -9 FRAA, while Casey is at .275/.330/.380, with a -2 FRAA.
- As Daniel Rathman revealed in the comments, Coco Crisp could be more valuable than Jacoby Ellsbury this year: 287/.346/.395, 2 FRAA for Jacoby and for Crisp: .278/.338/.407, 10 FRAA
- J.D. Drew is expected to have a similar season to his 2007, except... worse. Boo.
- Mike Lowell: Not bad! .285/.345/.437 with 14 HR, 79 RBI, FRAA of 8 and comparisons to Brooks Robinson and Cal Ripken, Jr. Wow.
- .259/.335/.407 is what Jed Lowrie would hit with a painful -4 FRAA, while Lugo hits us at .275/.337/.384 and a FRAA of -2.
- Varitek is encouraging at .255/.352/.420, Youk at .272/.373/.448, Papi at .282/.402/.541 (35 HR).
- A small (but not major) sophomore slump for Dustin Pedroia is also in the cards as is a decidedly unrosy look at Manny with only 21 HR!
- New bullpen pickup David Aardsma would have a 4.22 ERA in 48 innings for us, and Hideki Okajima Manny Delcarmen would be our best reliever. Timlin, Snyder, Lopez... all would hover around the mid-4s in ERA, so this may be a source of worry. Papelbon is slated for a 2.55 ERA, 39 saves and 67.1 IP.
- Deep rotation with Beckett at 3.98 ERA (205 innings), Dice-K at 3.90, Lester at 4.93, Buchholz at 4.08, Schilling at 4.18, Wakefield at 4.98.
Discussion
18 Comments on "Quick PECOTA reaction"
#1
Posted by Daniel Rathman, February 1, 2008 7:28 PM
One thing about Drew...
I think PECOTA factors in last season quite a bit, and doesn't factor in off-field issues (with his son, etc.).
Lowell...er, that's not bad, but it's not good either. Bottom line: the pitching staff is going to have to carry this team.
I still want more justification for why all these projection systems think Lowrie will struggle. I haven't seen much that wouldn't suggest that he's a solid OBP guy with passable defense...
#3
Posted by Daniel Rathman, February 1, 2008 7:45 PM
True, but I think PECOTA just can't get over that 2006 and feels like it needs to average out his success last year with that. I'm guessing he'll finish around 3.60...but I wouldn't necessarily bet that his ERA will be lower than Dice-K's. (And no, that's not being me hating on Beckett, just seeing a big improvement from Dice.)
#4
Posted by Daniel Rathman, February 1, 2008 7:46 PM
Uhm...there's about 12 ways to fix the above sentence...let's go with removing "being".
#5
Posted by JimT, February 1, 2008 8:17 PM
What the heck is PECOTA and why should I care?
PS: Sean Casey is a smart pick up. A good veteran bat.
#7
Posted by Sean O, February 1, 2008 8:41 PM
Coco probably will be more valuable than Jacoby, if only we decided on trading for value instead of keeping Juan Pierre.
Beckett i'd say is dead on, but you're happy with .285/.345/.437 for Lowell? That sucks! A sub-800 OPS as a righty at Fenway is pretty atrocious, not even counting the amount of money he's owed. Casey Blake at 6.1m is a hell of a lot better.
Fine with the rest of it so far. Who cares, PECOTAs are out!
#8
Posted by Sean O, February 1, 2008 9:03 PM
Ok, we had better hope that PECOTA is very wrong, or that our pitching stuff is superhumanly good. With only one player over a .900 OPS, there is no way we're making the playoffs if this is close to accurate.
Maybe Beckett, Schilling and Matsuzaka will post sub-3.5 ERAs.
...Anyone else experiencing PECOTA depression?
#9
Posted by Evan Brunell, February 1, 2008 9:22 PM
I'm sorry, but I have NEVER thought PECOTA was credible. But a lot of buzz always surrounds it, so...
Jim: it's (reportedly) the most accurate statistical predictive tool out there, but... yeah, I'm not a fan of it. I also don't like how they cop out of wrong predictions by providing degrees (each player has like a 10 degree projection up to 90... so each persons 10 degree is terrible, 90 is better) and the stats listed here are 50 (weighted) degree.
So even if 50 degree shows a player wrong, BP can say "Hey, we nailed him on the __ degree!"
PECOTA is fine as a tool to provide a reasonable outlook on a season, but does it know Manny was hurt last year, struggled through a subpar year and is working out like a warrior? No.
Did it forecast Lowell's 07? No. It just takes everyones statistics, looks at their age and trends and projects from there. That's fine but not terribly accurate.
I think too much stock is put into them.
I will say they are the most accurate out there. But baseball is, while a stat-heavy game, NOT easily forecasted.
#10
Posted by Sean O, February 1, 2008 9:51 PM
But, thing is, PECOTA doesn't say "he was the 70th percentile, we're awesome!" they say , good, but we were off. It's more a continuum of how a player typically performs. For the most part, it is very rare that somebody is just plain different from their PECOTA forecasts. For example, if Shea Hillenbrand hit .260/.380/.350 next year, that would be pretty damn unexpected, so PECOTA is very valuable that way.
Something like Mike Lowell's performance is definitely a part of it. Lowell was lucky that his batted balls landed in open space unlike his entire career to that point. BABIP is something we can never expect, since it can fluctuate wildly by year for most players.
The fact that Manny is working out doesn't mean a damn thing. Kevin Millar was working out every day before '05 and dropped a lot of non-muscle weight, and he bust out a .272 .355 .399 line. Craptastic.
Following the career arc of every player similar to Manny, there is a definite regression exactly where Manny is right now. Let's hope he proves them wrong.
#11
Posted by Evan Brunell, February 1, 2008 11:16 PM
NOTE: Sean Casey's contract is NON-GUARANTEED. Wow!
#12
Posted by Gerry, February 1, 2008 11:54 PM
Same with Snyder. Do we know of any others?
Agreed on these and other projections, Evan.
IMO, they are very useful as general guides to what may happen, but contain no protocols to predict what can happen, or why.
Otherwise, they would have predicted and explained what Mike, Youk, Jacoby, Clay, MDC, Kyle, Javy, Wake and Becket accomplished last year, and during portions of last year; or what Daisuke, Schill, Coco, JD, Julio, Manny (and especially Pineiro, Romero, Gagne) unexcpectedly (to all but the most astute human observers) didn't.
#13
Posted by Bob, February 1, 2008 11:59 PM
I never put much stock in these things, project all you want its the games that matter. Comparing Manny to Kevin Millar is ridiculous, I'm going to go ahead and say it right now, Manny will hit more than 21 homers, I see him over 30 at the very least barring a significant injury. Ellsbury will be more valuable than Coco,there's absolutely no way the Diceman has a lower era than Beckett (unless he turns into the Japanese Pedro, which I would totally welcome). Reading this would make anyone pessimistic, but the Red Sox are clearly a playoff team, I sort of look at it and shrug. If computers and formulas could be trusted about everything in sports no one would ever have a problem with the BCS.
#14
Posted by Daniel Rathman, February 2, 2008 12:20 AM
Evan:
Heard about that, wasn't sure if it was true. If so, GREAT insurance signing.
#15
Posted by Dave B., February 2, 2008 11:01 AM
What a great day. I wake up early after a long night and find that PECOTA is up.
People just need to take these things for what they are, projections. It isn't like because this thing says Crisp is going to be better than Ellsbury it is true. We still have to play the games and see what happens.
#16
Posted by Sam, February 3, 2008 11:29 PM
Im not much of a Pats fan but I was totally bummed to see them lose in the big one after their run ... especially to a NY team ... must be hell in Boston right now
just wait until tommorrow ... I garauntee you the single thought on every New England sports fan's mind when he wakes up will be ... "When does spring training start?"
#17
Posted by Daniel Rathman, February 4, 2008 12:21 AM
Yea, I'm glad I'm not in Boston right now. I didn't hate the Giants...but I kinda do now because they took out both of my favorite teams in the NFC Champ game and then the Super Bowl.
But I must say, that catch by David Tyree was ... simply unbelievable.
#18
Posted by RollingWave, February 4, 2008 10:50 PM
PECOTA tends to be pretty fair, the Yankee outlook isn't exactly awsome either. (the pitching part espically)
It did correctly forcast the doom of the White Sox last year. it will do a record forcast a little bit later. I think that's where one really need to look at. I highly doubt that it'll forcast the doom of Beantown this year.
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