February 4, 2008
Josh Beckett a goner after 2010?
"We'd better enjoy [Josh] Beckett the next three years," one Boston Red Sox official said, "Because we won't be able to sign him after his deal is up after 2010." --- Peter Gammons
Whaaa? Come again?
Is it possible that
The Red Sox signed Josh Beckett to a three-year deal in the midst of his horrific 2006 campaign and also tacked on a club option that the Sox might as well go ahead and pick up now. Beckett made $10 million in '07 and will make that through 2009 with the option checking in at $12 million.
That is a ridiculously good contract, and I tip my hat to Theo Epstein for having the foresight to ink him to it. The to-be 28 year old had a 3.27 ERA in 200.2 IP this last year with 20 wins and seems to have turned a corner in his career: this is his second straight year of throwing over 200 innings after never having topped 178.2. When the deal is over, Beckett will be entering his age-31 season (Santana is entering his age-29 season this year).
As we all know,
When Beckett becomes a free agent, if he continues along the path that he's set for himself, he could sign a very lucrative five-year (at the minimum) extension for (again, minimum, especially once you factor in inflation) $20 million each year. Would the Red Sox invest it? Should they?
Three years is a long ways off, and it's too early to have an educated opinion about it, but apparently it's not early enough for whispers to occur, as the quote that Gammons just provided us with attests.
Here's what struck me about the quote (emphasis mine): "[W]e won't be able to sign him after his deal is up after 2010."
I don't think it's that we won't be able to... it's that we'll decide not to. It's that we'll decide that we will have milked the most out of Beckett, that there's no financial sense to giving him an extension because the 2011 rotation right now projects to
I have every confidence that Beckett will be a monster again in 2008. I feel that PECOTA sells him short at 205 innings with a 3.98 ERA. Innings sounds right, ERA doesn't. Bill James projects a 3.50 ERA (203 IP), Chone at 3.79 (197 IP) and Marcel at 3.88 (181 IP). Sorry, not seeing it. That's the problem with predictive sources --- they pretty much have to factor in the entire career, and what those don't factor in is that (a) he's been rocksolid healthy for two years, excepting his skin flap... flap and I'm sorry, but for a pitcher of his caliber, his 2006 is so whacked out of norm that it shouldn't be factored in any predictions.
He's entering his age 28 season. Let's reiterate that point again. In olden days, the prime of a baseball player was considered 28-32. Now it's considered 26-32. This means that Josh Beckett is either hitting his prime or is solidly in the middle of it. And we're projecting regression? I don't think so.
He'll get better and better and better, but at some point, the Red Sox will be challenged to meet what Beckett feels his value is in order to resign him. As the Red Sox have shown in the past (and have often been proved correct on), they know when to get rid of a player. They may not know when not to bring in a player (see Lugo, J. and Drew, J.) but they definitely know when to cut the cord.
The Red Sox have gobs of money. We know this. We also know that by the time Beckett's contract is up, Manny's contract will be gone, so will Varitek's. Lugo's. Lowell's. I'm sure more money will take their place, but if we want to, we can unquestionably show Beckett the money.
So I have to disagree with the Red Sox official's quote. It's not that we won't be able to sign him. It's that we may not want to. And it's far too early to determine that.
Discussion
16 Comments on "Josh Beckett a goner after 2010?"
#1
Posted by Dave B., February 4, 2008 9:12 AM
I think that it is pretty obvious what is going on here. Besides Daisuke and Drew, nobody is signed threw 2010. Theo believes that this team has 2 or 3 years left and not much more. That is the reason why he isn't making deals now. He doesn't want to tax the future while he has the team now to win.
In the coming years pitchers like Webb, Sabathia, Bonderman, Putz, ect. Bats like Kotchman, Granderson, Swisher, Upton, Crawford, ect. That doesn't include players that will become trade bait, I.E. Hanley.
Theo wants to wait to play his hand. I really think it is that simple.
#2
Posted by Don B, February 4, 2008 10:14 AM
I think that we will have to wait and see on Beckett. He has had one really good year after a bunch of average years. If he has another great year he will break the bank after his contract is up. The market for SP is starting to explode, started with Zito (stupid contract), Santana and Sabathia is next.
On a side note, the yanks big three can stumble just as much as the Sox big two. Most of the rankings have Hughes, Chamberlin, and Buckholtz pretty close. Lester is a great story and you gotta route for him but he is not a top line pitcher.
#3
Posted by Tim Daloisio, February 4, 2008 10:33 AM
I think there's too much time between now and then to start playing too much "what ifs" but I agree with you that you can't say, "won't be able to sign him".
#5
Posted by Evan Brunell, February 4, 2008 11:05 AM
Thanks, Tony. We had no idea. Show some class, will you?
#6
Posted by Kevin R, February 4, 2008 11:22 AM
See where it says "mlb-redsox" in your browser's address bar? "nfl-patriots" is that way, thanks. Don't let the door hit you, etc.
Anyway, I agree with Dave B... the team seems to be built for the next couple years, and Theo is waiting to see what happens, both with our young guys and the trade market, before making any plans beyond that. (I would bet we will soon see a Varitek extension through 2009 or '10 as well.) I think it's good that they're already thinking of alternatives to Beckett. I'm just happy we'll get three more years of him.
#8
Posted by Evan Brunell, February 4, 2008 11:44 AM
I know you're from New York and you're naturally predisposed to defend your own team, but the fact is that yuo have over 8 million New yorkers and about 600,000 Bostonians.
Just by numbers alone, New Yorkers without class easily outnumber Bostonians TOTAL. So it should come as to no surprise to you that we feel New Yorkers have no class. Case in point: I would NEVER have left a comment on a New York site gloating about the win.
All that needed to be said was shown on the scoreboard last night.
Why do you feel the need to rub it in? ENJOY THE CHAMPIONSHIP, don't try to make other people feel bad. That's just immature.
Don B: 100 % agree. Difference is we aren't relying on Buchholz/Lester.
#9
Posted by NYSox, February 4, 2008 2:51 PM
Tony, you do know there are Red Sox fans who are also Giants fans, right? Me for one.
As for the Beckett comment, either it was taken out of context or the comment was strategic. The Red Sox have the second highest payroll in baseball, there's no reason why they wouldn't be able to afford Beckett. Perhaps the Red Sox are already looking ahead to Sabathia and acting as if they won't be players. Then they could come out of nowhere like they did with Matsuzaka.
#10
Posted by NYSox, February 4, 2008 3:12 PM
What do you think of the revitalized Red Sox bench? Mirabelli's below average and Cora's probably average but Coco Crisp and Sean Casey are probably some of the best bench players on an AL team right now. The Red Sox have some definite flexibility now to give Youk and Lowell some time off and still have a high AVG/OBP guy in there at least. And Crisp is probably better than most starting CF's out there. His defense becomes especially useful off the bench.
#11
Posted by TALLTHRILL, February 4, 2008 3:55 PM
NYSox, I also wonder if the Beckett comment was taken out of context, since the Red Sox will clearly be able to afford him, in the technical sense, if they choose. Here is one possible translation and a likely scenario in my mind: if Beckett were to reach free agency after 2010, the Red Sox would be outbid. The sox official might have no doubt that one of the NY teams will value Beckett more then Theo will (ala Johnny Damon). The Mets have shown that they are willing to overpay and over commit for an ace (ala Pedro). The Yankees are the Yankees. Had the Twins agreed to trade with us, I don't think we would have been willing to pay as much or offer as many years as the Mets did. The Yankees probably would have. In three years they could both have a lefty ace (Santana and Sabathia) with plenty of money pouring in from their new stadiums. Why wouldn't they be willing to spend more, and even more likely, offer more years then the Red Sox? We will most likely be down to the third highest payroll in baseball in 2011. And Theo still hasn't superseded the largest contract in Red Sox history (Manny). Still... there is hope.
Here is what I hope happens: if Beckett has a solid and healthy 2008 the Red Sox sign him to a Jake Peavy type extension (ala David Ortiz x2). With the leverage of two years left for cheap, we offer a signing bonus and a 2009 market value three more years added on. Beckett gets five years guaranteed when he is still two years from free agency. We keep him for cheaper ave salary then we would have paid him as a free agent, and most importantly, we keep him for 2011--2013 instead of watching sign for 2011-2017 in NY.
#12
Posted by JimT, February 4, 2008 7:21 PM
The Red Sox are a large market team. If they feel that its in thier interest to sign Beckett then they will try. If not, its on to the next opportunity. Don't get married to these guys. Its in the nature of players and thier agents to chase the money, its the club's management team to determine if they are worth it.
What better example than Pedro. Was there ever a pitcher who was more dynamic for three year stretch (including Roger C.). Today who would disagree with the desicion to let him walk. Its all about relative value.
If Beckett's relative value is still there, then the Sox will make a strong play to keep him.
#13
Posted by Philip Cunningham III, February 4, 2008 8:25 PM
I found Tony T's comment hilarious. I suppose that is the luxury of being a Sox fan that lives so far away from all the social dynamics in terms of the NY/Boston rivalry (and has never lived there).
Also, I chuckled the minute I saw the headline of this blog entry in my Google Reader this morning. The Patriots lose the Super Bowl, and now us Sox fans are wringing our hands over that line in Gammons' latest blog entry. Thanks, Evan, for attempting to quell the Chicken Little mentality with the body of this blog entry. However, the headline clearly caters to the mindset of all the neurotic New Englanders today. How very opportunistic for Fire Brand. ;) Gentlemen, I salute you!
#15
Posted by Gerry, February 4, 2008 10:13 PM
TallThrill, you hit it again. There is every reason to believe that Josh Becket would take an early extension to 2013 for salary and incentives.
Speaking of incentives. Here's an idea that is far more sane than paying $20M for long term pitcher contracts. Coco doesn't want to play back up, NYSox. But what if his role was NOT backup, but as an integral component of a true, and official, 4-man outfield.
To achieve this, wouldn't it be great if Theo and Tito sat with him and explained this for what it is: a legitimate strategy to help win the WS again; and underscored the strategy by incentivizing him financially for stolen bases, defense, assists, runs scored, success against lefties and righties, etc., etc. In other words, he gets an incentivized raise to pioneer this strategy. Coco stays and produces.
Coco would not only keep his pride, but have it enhanced, as this 4-man outfield could be a perfect solution for the Sox. Coco would be a happy camper, and we would have the #1 outfield at home and on the road; a healthy, energized, fast, powerful team within a team.
#16
Posted by Eric J. Seidman, February 6, 2008 7:56 PM
Considering how you never know what will happen, especially with his injury/blister history. If Beckett has another outstanding season this year, it would be smart to cash in at the right time. I'm sure he wouldn't want to turn something lucrative down in a good situation and then experience a downward trend of success and injuries - AKA, don't pull a Juan Gonzalez.
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