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UPDATE: Schilling out until All-Star Break
Curt Schilling - Evan Brunell (MVN)
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[UPDATE 7:04] The stalemate between the Red Sox and Schilling may be over. Reports have Schilling acceding to the Sox’s wishes of not having shoulder surgery.
However, as a result of that, Curt Schilling will be sidelined until the All-Star Break. He and the club left the decision to Dr. David Altchek of the New York Mets, who served as an intermediary. With Schilling and Morgan on the side of surgery (which may have ended Schill’s career) and the Sox and medical director Dr. Thomas Gill on the side of rest and rehabilitation, the two agreed to put the decision in Altchek’s hands (a rule put forth by the Collective Bargaining Agreement).
Schilling, who has a partial tear of the rotator cuff, may have had the Sox attempt to void his contract had he opted for surgery without permission from the club. This issue seems to have strained the relationship between Schilling and the club, which is a shame because I couldn’t be happier how this worked out in the end.
Why? Look, we need Schill for the end, not the beginning. He’s a postseason warrior, and this ensures that he’ll be there for us. (It needs to be mentioned here that it is possible he may not pitch at all or well after the Break, but that is the target here.) It ensures that he will be as healthy as he possibly can be under the conditions and can turn in a strong half. Given his advanced age (41), the extra rest should do him wonders, much like Roger Clemens consistently unretires and comes back a few months into the season.
This gives Clay Buchholz a great chance to break camp as the fifth starter for the Red Sox — and get this — allows the Red Sox to limit his innings the second half. With the anticipation of Schilling returning, they can pitch Buchholz with confidence that Buchholz can transition to the bullpen or be sent down to Triple-A for the second half of the season.
And if Schilling doesn’t return? The Red Sox can always sub in Julian Tavarez, David Pauley or make a deal (plenty of solid starters have been dealt during the waiver period, if it stretches that long).
What this situation does is give Clay Buchholz the opportunity to start and Schilling to be ready and healthy for the only month that matters: October.
[UPDATE 1:51] More news, this time from the Boston Herald.
Curt Schilling and the Boston Red Sox are locking horns, with Schilling’s shoulder at the forefront.
Schilling’s shoulder may have reached the point where he will require surgery to fix either his rotator cuff or labrum. The Herald speculates that Schilling and the Sox disagree about how to treat the issue. (The Globe reports that Morgan [see below] is recommending surgery while the Sox do not want Schill to go under the knife.)
[B]aseball sources have indicated that the club has at least inquired about the possibility of voiding the one-year, $8 million contract Schilling signed last November. It is not known to what lengths the Sox have gone on the matter, but their threat has been serious enough to create a conflict between Schilling and the Red Sox. BOSTON HERALD
Rotoworld.com speculates the Red Sox could make a run at Kyle Lohse, Bartolo Colon or Freddy Garcia. I don’t mind taking a flyer on Garcia and taking a look at him in June, but this should be an impetus for the Red Sox to start Clay Buchholz, not to bring in a pitcher like Lohse that has no business commanding multi-million, multi-year deals.
Start Buchholz and keep Tavarez in the bullpen.
[ORIGINAL 1:19] It looks like Curt Schilling’s shoulder is going to continue being a problem after all.
Schilling recently visited Dr. Craig Morgan, the doctor that operated on his shoulder way back in 1995. While Schilling, Morgan and Theo Epstein have not commented on the matter yet, you can be sure we’ll hear about it soon.
While it is premature to speculate on Opening Day availability, the same source that revealed Schilling’s inability to be ready for spring training would not rule out Schilling not being able to start the year on the active roster.
This is good news for Clay Buchholz, who would be the heavy favorite to break camp as the fifth starter should Curt Schilling not go. The Red Sox could also opt to start Julian Tavarez and carry a reliever in David Aardsma or Kyle Snyder.
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54 Responses to “UPDATE: Schilling out until All-Star Break”
February 7th, 2008 at 1:48 pm
This is where having pitching depth helps a ton…
…I wouldn’t rule-out the Sox looking for a b
February 7th, 2008 at 2:00 pm
Argh…I hate this network at school.
That should read: “I wouldn’t rule-out the Sox looking for a back-end starter for Coco.”
February 7th, 2008 at 2:14 pm
Buccholz to the rescue!
February 7th, 2008 at 2:35 pm
Nevermind Clay/Julian…I would pencil in David Pauley before I would spend a dollar on Kyle Lohse. Lohse has better then avg stuff and consistently terrible results…perhaps we should pencil him in as the closer and move Pappelbon to the rotation.
February 7th, 2008 at 2:41 pm
Wow. It seems that the Red Sox advantage in the rotation over the Yankees has just disappeared. I would say I was happy, but I do not like to root for injuries, I would rather Schilling just have a bad year. Regardless, both rotations will no have a heavy reliance on young pitchers.
February 7th, 2008 at 3:55 pm
ESPN is saying the Sox may look into voiding Schillings 2008 contract. I’m actually kinda hoping that they do, I personally really didn’t see Curt contributing all that much this year and I would like to see a what Buchholz can do given the chance. Taking a flyer on Garcia Wade Miller style isn’t a bad idea either, if he’s healthy and returns to form he could do at least as much as schilling would have done this year. Colon is a bad idea because he’s shown no effort to stay in shape and was always kinda overrated anyways, besides there’s been a lot of roid spec about him. If they sign Kyle Lohse I might actually kick a puppy.
February 7th, 2008 at 4:32 pm
The rotation advantage has not disappeared.
Buchholz will give us the same quality innings as Schilling would have. The reason why this is a blow is strictly in terms of depth. While before we could plug in Clay after the inevitable injury, now it’s Julian.
So much for my article yesterday, huh.
February 7th, 2008 at 4:46 pm
Zach, I have to disagree. I would say both teams have two guys they can feel fairly comfortable with every five days (Beckett, Wang, Dice-K, Pettitte), one vet coming off a rough year (Wake and Mussina), and a bunch of fairly equal young guys (Joba,Clay, Highes, Lester, Kennedy). I think an impartial observer would call the rotations fairly equal.
February 7th, 2008 at 5:04 pm
I would agree with Moshe to an extent … tho of course I’d take Wake over Moose any day of the week … and I’d certainly take Beckett over Wang … but yeah I get your point … the two rotation are fairly evenly matched … or at least have the potential to be … hard to say yet with so many rookies tho
Its because of those rookies that it sucks to lose Schill … I was hoping Curt could make one more run and at least be a veteran presence for the rotation … I’m not sure I was real confident in him to stay healthy but it’s always nice to have him on the club … hopefully it gets worked out but we’ll have to wait and see
February 7th, 2008 at 5:28 pm
It also surprises me to hear assumptions that Clay will equal Schill. The young pitchers for both teams are unproven, and sure things flop all the time. Schill is a probable HOFer who has an ERA over 4 once since 1994.
February 7th, 2008 at 6:34 pm
lol, keep dreaming Moshe. I know you’re a Yankees fan but try not to be a complete homer here. First of all, Schilling may still pitch the entire season in 2008. ONE DOCTOR has RECOMMENDED surgery. Take off your selective listening ear muffs and process that for a second.
Second of all, Wang is no Beckett. Most people project Matsuzaka to be better than an aging Pettitte. And the Yankees young guys can’t handle a full season’s worth of pitching. It’s not as if the Yankees were rated anywhere close to the Red Sox rotation before injury questions arose for the Red Sox #3 starter. I think it will take a lot more than that to make people think the Yankees rotation is equal. The Red Sox aren’t the team who will be relying on 3 pitchers who have never pitched half a season at the major league level.
But hey, keep dreaming if it makes you feel better Moshe.
February 7th, 2008 at 6:59 pm
It seems that it is impossible to make any sort of argument that suggest the Red Sox aren’t light-years better without being called a homer. Wang was better than Beckett two years ago. I would definitely take Beckett, but it is closer than you make it sound. Just putting the word “aging” in front of Pettitte’s name is not an argument. What makes you think Dice-K will suddenly turn it on while Andy suddenly declines? And Boston will be relying on 2 youngsters, as will the Yankees. (One of the Big Three is likely to be in the pen). John Lester actually pitched fewer innings last year than Phil Hughes. What makes him more qualified to pitch a full season, workload-wise? Same with Joba/Kennedy and Clay.
February 7th, 2008 at 7:11 pm
Guys, look at the 7:04 update. Big news, but I love the news.
Moshe, I do agree that this news vastly shrinks the difference between the two teams, but I don’t think that the difference is as close as you make it seem.
There are two sure bets on each team: Beckett and Pettitte.
Two solid starters: Dice-K and Wang.
Wakefield is the third, and he struggled with injury, not statistics: he’s very consistent. Mussina is cooked, his ERA will be over 5 this year.
The back end is Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz with Schilling, Tavarez, Pauley, et. al. able to step in if (when) the youngsters fail. You can’t rely on young pitchers.
That’s what the Yankees will do with Hughes and Kennedy. (I don’t count Joba because I think he’ll open in the bullpen, and if they make him a one-inning reliever in the ‘pen, moving him to starter prior to 2009 is suicide. If they have him be a long reliever, then the Yankees do gain SOME strength.)
The Sox are just deeper, that’s all. And this doesn’t really change that. In fact, I think it HELPS that because Buchholz is a wicked pitcher — Schilling’s better than Buchholz over the whole season but in short intervals, Buchholz wins. We get Buchholz for a short interval now and Schill when it matters.
February 7th, 2008 at 7:13 pm
Thanks for the insight Homer Mandel. Hmmm, I wonder why it is that people think you’re a homer when you say the Yankees rotation is as good as the Red Sox. That’s a tough one…
Take a look at what you’re saying Moshe. Wang was better than Beckett one year out of his entire career and you say they’re comparable.
Moshe, do you suggest that we all just ignore the fact that Pettitte’s going to be 36 next year? And what makes you think Pettitte has suddenly declined? Take a look at his numbers the last four years. In 2006 his hit rates jumped to the point that he’s allowing almost 10 hits for every 9 innings of work. And his strikeout ratio last year was the lowest it’s been this decade. His WHIP has jumped from 1.23 and 1.03 to 1.44 and 1.43. Time to take off the rose colored glasses.
And where did I say Daisuke will suddenly turn it on? He out pitched Pettitte last year in his rookie season.
February 7th, 2008 at 7:18 pm
Evan, fair enough. To be honest, I would still take the SOx pitchers over the Yankees, ONLY because of Beckett’s prowess in the postseason. I think that the SOx were only deeper with Schill. If he comes back at the ASB, the Sox regain their advantage. However, I have the following question for you Evan- If Lester and Clay are both pitching fairly well at the break, do you pull one of them for a possible healthy Schilling? Because, to compare, if Clemens decided to come back and Kennedy was pitching well and got bumped by Roger (not gonna happen, but you get my drift), I would give up my seats.
February 7th, 2008 at 7:20 pm
And Moshe, if you want to try to make an intelligent point, at least spell Lester’s name correctly. It’s not like he’s a rookie. And it would also help if you didn’t just make things up.
Lester didn’t pitch less innings than Hughes last year. He actually pitched more than 40 more innings than Hughes last year. Buchholz pitched about 36 more innings than Chamberlain. Perhaps you should stick to talking about the Yankees. You’re coming off really naive and uninformed so far in your comments here at Fire Brand.
February 7th, 2008 at 7:22 pm
And I don’t know if you remember Moshe, but Schilling was hurt last year as well. He only made 151 innings and the Sox still lead the league in ERA. What makes you think the Yankees can come anywhere close, even if Schilling only makes 100 innings next year?
February 7th, 2008 at 7:30 pm
Moshe, I would absolutely pull them in favor of Schilling. Schilling is a proven veteran who deserves the chance he can get.
Lester and Buchholz will be on inning caps for the year (Lester’s shouldn’t be prohibitive, early reports are Buchholz at 180).
If they pull Buchholz, they can ensure that he can pitch the postseason (if we make it) and come under that innings limit.
If Schilling is vastly ineffective, we can just slot Lester or Buchholz back in.
Even if both are pitching fairly well, it won’t change that they will have inning limits, and Schilling will help them not go over.
February 7th, 2008 at 7:30 pm
It is funny, Olde Town, I said the same thing over on a Yankees blog, and everyone agreed. I think it has more to do with who I say it to than what I am saying. I think it is arguable, which is why I am arguing my point.
Beckett career ERA 3.74 ERA+ 116 WHIP 1.228
Wang career ERA 3.74 ERA+ 119 WHIP 1.289
Fairly similar to me.
Pettitte 2007 ERA 4.05 ERA+ 110 WHIP 1.42
Dice-K 2007 ERA 4.40 ERA+ 108 WHIP 1.32
Again, pretty similar. Pettitte’s numbers look slightly better although they are close. And Pettitte’s WHIP’s have always been high. His career is 1.355, so that doesnt really trouble me.
February 7th, 2008 at 7:38 pm
Wow, Olde Town, personal insults. Picking on a spelling mistake in the name Jon, which is typically spelled with an H. I was referring to major league innings in regard to Hughes-Lester. And in regard to Schilling, his 151 innings equate to about 3/4 of a season. That contributed to the low ERA. SO did the stellar bullpen, which obviously still holds a large edge.
February 7th, 2008 at 7:42 pm
Moshe, of course they agree. They want it to be true. Try telling it to people who aren’t Yankees fans and then come back to me.
Please be reasonable. How can you compare Beckett’s lifetime numbers to Wang? Beckett skipped Triple-A and went straight to the majors at age 21. Wang started in the majors at age 25, after having pitched in the Olympics and having spent twice as much time in the minors.
And congrats, Pettitte was as good as Daisuke in his rookie season. Do you know how silly it sounds that you’re using that to say they’re comparable? You don’t see me comparing Wakefield to Hughes.
Stick to what you know cause it’s obvious that you don’t know sh*t about the Red Sox.
February 7th, 2008 at 7:46 pm
Moshe, you just keep digging yourself deeper and deeper. Why would you only look at major league innings when trying to determine work loads for next season? You know Chamberlain only had 24 major league innings next year, right? Do you expect his innings cap next year to be 50?
February 7th, 2008 at 7:49 pm
*last year
February 7th, 2008 at 7:54 pm
Wow. I was trying to disagree with your assertion that Dice-K was better than Andy last year. I think I succeeded in that sense. And Beckett’s total numbers from his age 25 season forward are about equal to his career numbers, as well as Wang’s numbers. Good to see you can keep the conversation civil.
February 7th, 2008 at 7:55 pm
Olde Town … just … just stop man … calm down … Moshe is not saying the Yank’s rotation is better … he’s just saying the Sox aren’t incredibly far and away better than the Yankees … which makes some sense … honestly IMO as much as I hate to say it he is making more sense than you’re right now
anyways yeah I like this breaking news alot … it takes away our depth for the first half but if Schill can actually come back healthy later this season it could work out very well … allowing us to use Schill for late in the year when he is best … and Buch/Lester early when they are best … this could be pretty sweet but considering how this story has gone so far things could change pretty quick
At least we have something to distract us from the circus that is Clemens vs McNamee
February 7th, 2008 at 7:57 pm
I’m not so sure that Schilling will be able to come back and be effective especially if its a rotator cuff. Am I the only person who remembers when Pedro was in again DLed again with the same problem.
February 7th, 2008 at 7:58 pm
From Will Carroll of BP: This is an important point. Why are minor league innings any different than major league innings? There are only theories, but the best and most testable center around a selection bias. A pitcher good enough to go over 100 innings in the major leagues is almost by definition a quality pitcher. We know that major league hitters are harder to get out than minor league hitters, not to mention the stress of pitching in front of big crowds. The type of pitcher that can get over 100 innings in the majors is likely to be coasting through the minors on less than his best effort. He’s seldom taxed. He’s seldom forced to bear down or throw long innings. Granted, we don’t know this is the reason why and mathematically and physiologically, it shouldn’t be the case, but until someone can develop a working model for translation, we have to simply ignore those minor league innings.
February 7th, 2008 at 8:02 pm
Moshe, so you have no explanation for why you’d be using only major league numbers to figure out work loads for next year?
And Moshe, I said Matsuzaka pitched better because he was better than Pettitte in hit rates, strikeout rates, WHIP and BAA. I let is slide that you cherry picked only 3 stats and thought that meant that Pettitte was better. Even if the two pitched the same, Daisuke did so in his rookie year, and with a dramatic increase in the frequency of his starts.
And no, Beckett’s numbers are not the same before his age 25 season and after. Two of the worst three seasons of his career were before age 25. And unlike Wang, Beckett doesn’t sh*t his pants in the playoffs.
February 7th, 2008 at 8:06 pm
I said I would take Beckett due to playoff prowess. Beckett’s ERA 25 and after is lower than his career ERA, and I imagine his ERA+ is as well.
February 7th, 2008 at 8:06 pm
Bob, Schilling actually did his best work of the season last year after coming back from his shoulder injury.
And Sam, that’s not at all what Moshe is saying. Direct quote:
“It seems that the Red Sox advantage in the rotation over the Yankees has just disappeared.”
He was trying to say that the rotations were equal. It wasn’t until later that he backtracked and tried to claim that he was just saying the Red Sox rotation isn’t light years better.
February 7th, 2008 at 8:06 pm
Excuse me, higher than his career ERA.
February 7th, 2008 at 8:14 pm
For the record Moshe, I think this makes the rotations a little more similar. I just disagreed with your notion that it “eliminates” an advantage for the Red Sox in their rotation. I think you’re vastly overestimating how much this will affect the Red Sox. Schilling missed a quarter of the year last year and they did fine. Supposedly, he’s only going to be missing a quarter more of the year in 2008. That’s really not a big difference, especially now that Buchholz is ready to fill those innings.
And then I took issue with your notion that Hughes pitched more innings than Lester last year because it wasn’t true. The Red Sox young pitchers have significantly higher innings caps than those of the Yankees. Lester and Buchholz are both around 180. If the Yankees stretch Hughes and Chamberlain, they could get them to 150 innings. That would be a slightly higher than normal, but reasonable increase in innings (about 40 innings).
As for Kennedy, as far as I know he doesn’t have a spot in the rotation right now and he had a large workload last year. He’s at a risk for injury next year because he had such a severe increase in his innings workload last year, but I don’t think an innings limit will be an issue for him.
February 7th, 2008 at 8:25 pm
Fair enough, Olde Town. We can agree to disagree. I enjoyed the debate, although I did take umbrage with your assertion that I did not know what I was talking about. I may not always be right, but I like to think that i have a pretty firm grasp of the information I am dealing with. In regard to the inning caps, that should be helped by the fact that the Yankees have 6 starters. Cashman has already stated that there is a plan in place to assure they all spend significant time in the rotation without passing the inning limits. We will see. Just as an aside, PECOTA picks the Yankees with 103 wins and the Sox with 101, before Schilling. Seems pretty far fetched, considering how competitive the AL should be this year.
February 7th, 2008 at 8:38 pm
Post 33 is me, sorry about that.
February 7th, 2008 at 8:42 pm
Moshe, so you honestly still believe that the Red Sox rotation isn’t any better than that of the Yankees?
February 7th, 2008 at 8:58 pm
I think in a playoff series, I would take the Sox rotation due to Beckett. I think over a season, they are about even. If you put a gun to my head and forced me to choose, I would take Boston, again because of Beckett. Olde Town, it is 4 am here, so I am going to sleep. We have another 8 months until October, plenty of time to continue the debate.
February 7th, 2008 at 9:03 pm
What kind of seasons are you expecting from the members of the Yankees rotation then? Do you expect all of them to improve on last year?
February 7th, 2008 at 9:10 pm
I expect Wang and Pettitte to be about the same. I expect Beckett to be a smidge worse and Dice-K a bit better. I see Wake and Moose having decent bouncebacks. With the young guys, its hard to predict or choose one over the other. I am not one of those yankees fans who will sit here and say “Joba rooolz, Clay sucks!!!” I think talent wise among the youngsters, the two teams are fairly even. These reasonable expectations lead me to suggest similarity betwenn the rotations. Of course, you can disagree with my premises, and therefore reach different conclusions.
February 7th, 2008 at 10:20 pm
I see how we differ now. I expect Pettitte to regress, like most 36-year-old starters do. Wang I really don’t know. He’s a bit unpredictable and like most ground ball pitchers I think he has a tendency to vary a bit from year to year. I could think of reasons why he might regress. He relies on one pitch quite a bit and so it might hurt him when batters become more famliar with him. But for purposes of this argument, I’ll say that he’ll replicate his 2007 season. I don’t expect Beckett to regress all that much. BABIP would suggest that he was actually unlucky last year, and he’s entering the prime age for most pitchers. Not to mention, his confidence has got to be at an all time high. As for Wake and Mussina, I don’t expect them to improve much on last year. They’re not getting any younger.
I don’t really know what to expect from the young guys. Their large unknowns. But this is another reason why I like the Red Sox rotation more. The Yankees rotation is going to rely on a whole lot more of unknowns. Hughes, Chamberlain, Kennedy have never pitched even half a major league season before. And pitchers typically go through some growing pains at that stage of development. I think Hughes and Chamberlain are two very talented prospects, but even the most talented pitching prospects typically don’t have success at the major league level right away.
Plus, I think there’s one major factor that you’ve yet to consider. The Red Sox pitch in FENWAY PARK. As a result, many of their pitcher’s stats become inflated. But opponent pitchers struggle just as much in Fenway. So a starter who puts up a 4.00 ERA in Fenway is more valuable than a pitcher who puts up a 4.00 ERA in Yankee Stadium.
February 8th, 2008 at 1:41 am
I never assume a decline due to age unless there is some evidence of it. Pettitte’s numbers the last two years have fluctuated near his career numbers. And how are the Yankees relying on a whole lot more unknowns? Hughes and Joba for NY, Lester and Clay for Boston. Unless you consider Lester a “known.” Considering his uneven performance, I doubt that. Finally, what you say about park factors is true. However, that is why I listed ERA+, which is park adjusted.
February 8th, 2008 at 1:45 am
Last night’s discussion was about keeping the Rotation and Pen healthy. Did we jinx it? So now what.
IMO, we can’t count on Schill before August, if at all, and we can’t sustain another injury. Whatever decision is made now must not only consider Schill’s 10 - 15 Swan Song wins, but more importantly consider health and fatigue issues of the Rotation and Pen. I suspect that not just Buckholz, but Hansack, Pauley, Masterson, etc. will get their chances early, and one or more may surprise us with their success.
Or we trade. Trade prospects? Our MiLB guys and Tavarez are better than what’s out there in FA. Don’t do it Theo. Where are you Sean O? We missed on Haren and, unless Theo is still awake, Bedard. (I know, Santana looks lots better right now. Lots. But even now there are alternatives).
Here’s one, a creative package for Billy Beane when he stops smiling: Blanton plus still injured Harden (strictly for Pawtucket until healthy, maybe even 2009) with either Street or Blevin or both. Yes, you have heard this before. But, Harden and Blevin have little to no trade value right now, but their ‘futures’ could enhance the package for both sides. Blanton and Street have real trade value, ‘though Street is still not 100%. Blanton is a fine, long inning solution for #3 Schill. Street replaces Gagne, only better.
A package led by Coco, (yes, Billy would love Coco now, even to trade) with NO Buckholz, Jacoby, Jon, Jed would work, or it wouldn’t be worth it. The Sox don’t need this trade, so don’t bet the farm, because although Blanton would be a difference maker right now, Harden, Street & Blevin would spend time in AAA mending (again).
Which means that soon, our Rotation and Pen, assuming successful rehabs, would be stronger that ever, even while hoping for Schills return.
It’s time to act. Or not! The top talent in Pawtucket are just waiting for a chance, and with them and baseball’s best 5 man rotation, no problem . . . except for health and fatigue.
February 8th, 2008 at 11:20 am
Moshe, Pettitte’s numbers were above his career averages three and four years ago and now suddenly they’ve fallen below his career averages. Obviously you’re going to see what you want to see because it looks like you’ve already made your mind up that the Yankees rotation is as good as the Red Sox rotation. But Pettitte’s numbers have taken a dip the last two years and he’ll be 36. I don’t know what more you could possibly want. I’ll give you more evidence later, but I have class soon.
As far as unknowns, Lester has twice as much major league experience as Hughes. Weren’t you the one saying how important major league innings are? And if you actually look at Lester’s numbers, he improved quite a bit on last year’s performance.
As for Buchholz, the Red Sox will be counting on him for half a season, not the entire season that the Yankees want out of Chamberlain. And Chamberlain’s never started in the majors. I don’t know how much more of an unknown you can be than that.
As for Mussina and Wakefield, Wakefield may have struggled last year, but Mussina completely blew up. His struggles really aren’t comparable to those of Wakefield last year. I’ve heard many Yankees fans say that they think his career is finished.
PLUS, you’re forgetting that the innings limits for Hughes and Chamberlain will force the Yankees to rely on yet another rookie pitcher, Ian Kennedy. You said yourself how the Yankees plan on mixing Kennedy in.
February 8th, 2008 at 11:21 am
The Red Sox will be fine. They used Julian Tavarez in their rotation for most of last year, and Schilling missed a quarter of the season and they still had arguably the best rotation in the league.
February 8th, 2008 at 11:44 am
with innings limits for joba and hughes, yankees will be using kennedy for almost as many innings as the red sox use buchholz. and that’s if hughes, chamberlain, mussina and pettitte are all affective and healthy. the yankees will likely be counting on kennedy for many more innings, if he himself is affective. so many members of the yankees rotation next year will have so little major league experience that you don’t know for sure if any of them will be able to handle a season
February 8th, 2008 at 12:02 pm
Gerry,
I wish. Blanton is going to fetch premier prospects ALONE. His demand from the Reds is Cueto, Bailey and Bruce. That’s like asking for Buchholz, Masterson and Lowrie.
February 8th, 2008 at 12:12 pm
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23059454/
Joba’s going to the bullpen Moshe, at least to start the season. So the Yankees will be relying on Mussina, Hughes and Kennedy to make up the majority of their rotation. And they’ll be expecting a declining 36-year-old to be their #2 and possibly their ace.
February 8th, 2008 at 12:16 pm
let me guess, mosh is gonna say the yankees bullpen and rotation are both as good as those of the red sox now
February 8th, 2008 at 1:53 pm
Gerry - you want 3 major leaguers - 2 top 2 starters and a closer, admittedly with some injury issues - for Coco and some second tier minor leaguers? Come on big fella, let’s get a clue.
And Evan, it’s more like replacing Ellsbury for Lowrie in your comp. Now realistically, Cincy isn’t gona make such a deal - Blanton’s not nearly that good. That’s a better haul than Haren brought. I don’t see Blanton moving, except perhaps to the Twins, but their need for a CF isn’t something Oak can fill.
Last night’s story about Schill’s doc makes me wonder what’s going on. He could be wrong - the other docs think so - but the way the injury was described (biceps tendon “spagettification”) seems to suggest that rest/rehab has a good chance to fail. It appears the Sox figure the risk of getting nothing out of Schilling with surgery exceeds the rehab route, especially since they can use him up and spit him out after ‘08.
I haven’t been here in a while, and as expected there’s a healthy dose of confidence about this season. There should be, of course, but making the playoffs isn’t a cakewalk in the AL this year, so nobody’s gonna cruise in. Injuries are likely to play a big role in who pushes through. Yeah, I’m a Yanks fan, but I saw in April and May what pitching did to us, and I don’t think those here are so young to forget the Sox debacle in August of ‘06. A solid rebound by the Jays hitters coupled with what was a pretty good pitching staff in ‘07 likely reinforced by the eventual return of Ryan, the moves by the Tigers and Mariners, and plenty of other factors suggest this season won’t be a cakewalk for anyone. I know it feels good to be cocky, but the long haul of the regular season isn’t something to take lightly this year. There will likely be surprises. What things look like on paper - Pythag records, Pecotas, etc. - are guesses based o the range of statistical probabilities. The games are still played on paper.
February 8th, 2008 at 2:03 pm
Boy I botched up more than once there.
“I saw in April and May what pitching INJURIES did to us”
And “The games AREN’T played on paper”. Damn clients calling in the middle of my sentence…
February 8th, 2008 at 4:41 pm
On Andy Pettitte:
I think there have been some clear signs of regression the past two years (age 34 and 35 seasons). He went from allowing 7.70 and 7.61 H/9 to allowing 9.99 and 9.95 H/9. His walk totals have went up slightly the last two years, his strike out totals have went slightly down and his WHIP went way up the last two years. In ‘04 and ‘05 he posted WHIPs of 1.23 and 1.03. The last two year’s they’ve been 1.44 and 1.43.
You like to compare career stats so much, so why not look at how his performance the past year has compared to the performance over his career? His H/9, BB/9 and WHIP have all been poorer than career average the past two years. Last year was even worse. In 2007, his H/9, BB/9, K/9 and WHIP were all below his career average.
How much longer do you honestly expect him to be effective? He’s going to be 36 next year and the last two years he’s allowed something like 10 hits for every 9 innings of work and has had a WHIP of 1.43. If those aren’t red flags then what is?
February 8th, 2008 at 11:20 pm
nyyfan. Harden and Street combined SHOULD be worth Santana prices by now, but combined they have been on the DL a dozen times in 3 years.
Harden is about to pitch in Tokyo, just had another cortizone shot, before ST, and if he pitches and goes down he may never get up. That is too high a price for a couple of early wins, and Billy knows it. His trade value is very low right now, which is why he hasn’t been traded. Instead of starting for the A’s, he should be in long rehab, working on mechanics, and getting back to Ace status. We have the depth to allow full rehab to occur. The alternative is awful.
Huston Street is the man. Reports are he is still recovering from his latest injury. He is not quite ready, and could go down again soon. What a waste! Although closer to returning than Harden, he also needs rehab. When ready, he and Pap would rule, supported by Oki and MDC. We can afford the time to have him get well.
Billy has repeated his willingness to trade both for the right price. What is the right price? Not nearly as high as if they were healthy, and if they pitch early and often, they may never get healthy. Would they be worth it, long term?
Blanton has become an important solution to the problems of several teams, suddenly including the Sox, for whom he would be a strong #3, which is exactly what we need. It is acknowledged generally that he is not a Haren, Bedard or Santana, and his price would reflect that.
My solution is to create a package which would bring us Blanton (to replace Schill now), Street (to eventually replace Gagne) and a very wounded Harden (for long term rehab) for Coco, and a combination of some of our top and younger prospects, though not Lester/Buckholz/Ellsbury/Lowrie, who are essential to the 2008 team.
The dynamics have changed dramatically. If we can’t fill the void from Pawtucket, then we must bit the bullet and trade. We could use this
February 9th, 2008 at 12:18 am
nyyfan.
You said it yourself. Blanton’s not (in terms of a mega trade) that good. He is, in fact, an excellent, sturdy, inning-eating #3+, who would exactly fit the Sox rotation right now. A perfect fit.
Your premise is that we are looking for 3 top MLB pitchers in exchange for second tier players. Not at all, at all. It doesn’t work that way. And with Schilling down, the price just went up. If we need to trade, make it and pay the man.
My inclusion of Harden and Street in the deal is to enhance the package for both sides. Their trade value is seeeeeriously dimished right now due to being on the DL a dozen times in 3 years. They weren’t traded this offseason because no GM wanted them injured. They need rehab, but will be pitched hard, early and often, “carrying” the team until they go down. Tragic.
Combined, and healthy, they could be worth Santana prices. They simply are not at this time, and may never be again if they go down, which is their history. In fact, unless fully rehabbed, their currently diminished trade value may never be higher than it is now. What a waste.
The Sox would be taking the gamble off Billy’s shoulders. Excluding JE/CB/JL/JL, we would pay a serious price in top and lower level prospects for the rebuilding. Billy has repeatedly told us that’s what he wants. We have it.
The Sox would get: Blanton, effective from day one as a #3+ (not a Haren or Bedard); Street, at Fenway in May, or not; and Haren out an entire year to get back, or not. If the gamble works, the Sox have enhanced the rotation and pen beyond hope for a reasonable price. If not, Blanton is what the docs ordered now.
The Red Sox offer:
1. Coco, and top prospects and young prospects to make the deal worth it for Billy.
2. An opportunity for two potentially great, but still damaged, pitchers to save their careers. Billy wouldn’t mind that at all.
3. A better trade package for the perceived value of the Blanton, Harden, Street package.
3. An opportunity to finish his rebuilding program, save $7M+ in contracts, and save significant medical and rehab costs . . . as well as the stress to the team, fans and staff. Read the Oakland Blogs. They are just waiting for season ending injuries to Harden and Street; its been going on for years. Oakland Nation will be happy to have them taking care of business.
Everyone wins.
February 9th, 2008 at 2:45 am
A family friend who is an experienced doctor says that if Schilling’s biceps is damaged as badly as his doctor believes it is, rehab will do nothing to help it. In his words, “I hate to say it, but Curt might very well be cooked.”
February 9th, 2008 at 2:23 pm
Which means either we trade, or we accerate Masterson and Bowden for late in 2008; and we give Hansack and Pauley real tries. I like Hansack. He is another great story, having earned his keep hard-scrabble lobster fishing back home, until he got a chance. It is unlikely, given his AAA era, K’s and WHIP that, finally given a real chance at his age and his toughness, he will blow that chance . . . which, under the circumstances is worth a chance.
If we decide to part with some of our best prospects to make a trade for, say Blanton, why not make it a larger package to address other needs, as above.
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