MVN - Most Valuable Network

All about the Red Sox

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Last night, I participated in a chat over at New England Sports Country. Here are some questions I answered…

“Why isn’t Devern Hansack in the equation for #5″? His #’s are worthy . . . in AA and Boston 2006, and AAA 2007 (his 3.61ERA. 1.19WHIP, 131SO in 139.2IP was better #’s than Pauley, Lester, Breslow, Martinez, Hansen, Zink, MDC, Lopez, Timlin; and in with Gabbard, Corey, Buckholz.), and Winter League 2007. In 2+ years, his only bad was a 3G, 7.2IP in Boston last year with a 4.7ERA, which isn’t horrible for a rookie. Why is he so far off the radar? Gerry_T

Well, first off, I think that Gerry would agree that Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz are better pitchers than Hansack. Lester has won a deciding World Series game and Buchholz threw a no-hitter in his second ever start. Lester is handed a spot mostly because he’s left-handed, but Buchholz is in the mix for the five spot along with Julian Tavarez and Kyle Snyder. The problem here is merely numbers. Even if Hansack was to blow everyone away and not have the competition be close, where would his roster spot come from? There’s already issues if David Aardsma makes the team. Someone will have to go. Ditto Hansack. Since Hansack is 29, has an option year left and doesn’t have as big a ceiling as Lester and Buchholz, it’s easy to see why he’s not being considered. It’s mostly from a numbers standpoint here, which is also why I feel there is a chance Clay is sent to AAA, because he has an option left. I do expect Hansack to be the first option up for injury replacements, however.

Evan, it was posted on mvn.com that “Manny is a hitting machine. He’ll turn 36 in May, but with one more big payout on the horizon, you know he’s going to have a monster season. You don’t have to look too hard to see that players tend to rise to the occasion in a contract year: Mike Lowell, Jorge Posada, Torri Hunter…” In your opinion, what type of season should Manny have to warrant the Red Sox picking up his 2009 option? NebraskaRSfan

Manny had a subpar season by his regards this past year at .296/.388/.493. Given Manny’s star status and our ability to go year to year with him on his options, I would say that even if he repeats 2007 in 2008, his option will be picked up. It makes too much sense. Could it be a option pickup and a trade (see Sheffield, Gary)? Possibly, but if he at least matches his 2007 output, it’ll be picked up. No cause for worry here because he will certainly outproduce his 2007 statistics. That is what the Red Sox WILL do. The question was what type of season SHOULD Manny have? Well, if he repeats his 2008, I would personally think long and hard about declining the option because you would have two seasons of a clearly declining Manny to draw from. If he can repeat his 2005 at the very least (.292/.388/.594) then I would pick the option up and use his 2005 season as a benchmark.

With Bartolo Colon seemingly throwing the ball well and if it continues, do you see him breaking camp with the team or staying back seeing how we won’t need a 5th starter right away? Schloicka

He’ll definitely stay back, but I have to be honest: with each passing day, I become more convinced the Red Sox will carry Colon. I keep hearing raves about his pitching, the only concern is getting him into game shape. That’s what will hold him back initially. Perhaps on the trip to Japan they’ll carry an extra reliever in place of a fifth starter (and personally, I would entertain not carrying a fourth starter either, the more arms in the pen for Japan, the better)… but if Colon really keeps opening eyes like this, Buchholz may be ticketed for Pawtucket a lot faster than we thought. The possibility absolutely exists that he could break with the Red Sox, but I expect the Red Sox to take full advantage of the ability to hold onto him in the minors until May 1. I would expect him to start a couple times in April then get called up to be our fifth starter if everything breaks as expected (and if this is the case, the Sox would send Clay to AAA — no jerking him around — and start Tavarez in April.

Are the Red Sox really thinking of keeping Coco Crisp or they just waiting to see what transpires during training camp with other teams? How seriously do you view the latest ‘Crisp rumors’ involving the Padres and Cubs? As reported, a trade like one of these does not sound like it would be much more than finding a home for Crisp.. Do you agree? Schloicka

Yes, I agree that the trades as currently rumored are basically just finding a home for Crisp — and that won’t happen. We WILL get value for Crisp (and no, Jason Marquis doesn’t count) or we’ll put him on the bench. Theo won’t trade him for pennies on the dollar. He’s shown he’s more than willing to hold out, and the fact that Crisp has stated he will play if he’s a bench player and not be outspoken about being unhappy (which he will be) help that cause. They’ll move him as soon as it makes sense.

Which Red Sox pitching prospect do you think has more upside, Masterson or Bowden? Bsports

It depends how you define upside. Masterson right now projects to be a very good reliever, while Bowden projects to be at least a No. 3 starter. Which is more valuable to you? In terms of ceiling, Bowden has more upside, but Masterson is a lot closer to reality while Bowden is still mainly upside at this point. If I was in a draft, I’d pick Justin Masterson because he’s more of a sure thing at this point. But ceiling-wise, Bowden is your man. EOA

After Mike Lowell moves on, do you see anyone down in the SOX farm system that might be able to take over for him? Bsports

No, not at all. First off, the candidates that might be able to (Jed Lowrie, Chad Spann) will either be starting elsewhere for the Red Sox (or in Spann’s case, on his fourth organization playing in AAA) or long traded. They’re 23/24 now, it’s time for them to start. We don’t have anyone to write home about in the range of people who will be 24 in three years, but we do have a few intriguing teenagers: Oscar Tejeda, Chih-Hsiang Huang, Michael Almanzar (a future All-Star for us). Alas, it’s way too far ahead to project. If you told me I had to pick someone in the Sox system to project as the future third baseman, choice No. 1 would be Kevin Youkilis with Lars Anderson taking over at first. Choice 2 would be 20-year old Michael Almanzar. (He’ll be 20 then, he’s 17 now.)

Evan, you posted: “Coco Crisp v. Jacoby Ellsbury. No one gives Crisp a shot to win the centerfield job, but Terry Francona has mentioned that Crisp is the incumbent and should be treated as such. We all know that Coco has said he will ask for a trade should he not win the job, which is completely understandable.” In view of how ST is playing out, do you still feel that Coco will be the starting CF for the Red Sox? NebraskaRSfan

Yes, I still think he has the edge at this point. Crisp hasn’t played recently, but until a recent game, Ellsbury wasn’t exactly tearing it up either. With the flexibility of options on Ellsbury plus Ellsbury possibly serving as a fourth outfielder and not shaking up the clubhouse doing so (as Crisp would)… I would still give the edge to Crisp. But I do still expect Jacoby to pull it out at the end. I’m still holding out hope we find a home for Crisp, but I also think that Crisp is going to go back to the Cleveland Crisp within the next couple of years. It would be bad if we traded him for pennies on the dollar just to see him revert back now that he’s (reportedly) completely healthy for the first time in two years.

You also posted this: “One reason why I’m a proponent of moving Crisp as soon as possible and having Bobby Kielty be the backup outfielder is that it would allow Terry Francona to put Kevin Youkilis in left field for when Manny Ramirez needs a breather.If Ellsbury wins the job and Crisp is the fourth outfielder, Tito will feel obligated to get Crisp in as much as possible. If we move him and Youk can spell Manny, it adds more time at first base for Sean Casey. Casey’s never going to be an elite first baseman, but he does hit for high average and I think to have him on the bench and rarely utilize him would be a mistake. Moving Crisp would result in more playing time for Casey.” Youkilis is a horrible outfielder. Don’t you think that Francona would use Keilty in left field to spell Manny? Between giving Youkilis time off and spelling Lowell (Youkilis to 3b?) wouldn’t Casey get some ABs especially if Francona uses Casey in late innings to rest Lowell/Youkilis? NebraskaRSfan

Youkilis has 18 total games at left field. I would feel comfortable sticking him out there to back up Manny in order to get Casey in the game. There are certainly going to be times when Youkilis and Manny will need to rest the same day, but what about when it’s just Manny but Youkilis is fine? Then it becomes a choice between Bobby Kielty and Sean Casey. I’ll take Casey.

My starting lineup would be: Ellsbury/crisp, Drew/Keilty, Ramirez, Ortiz, Lowell, Youkilis, Tek, Pedroia, Lugo. In review of Drew’s career record in the 2 spot, his numbers are the best of any othe lineup slot.. Albeit there are other factors to consider, the Red Sox probable lineup will be: Ellsbury/Crisp, Youkilis, Manny, Ortiz, Lowell, Drew/keilty, Tek, Pedroia, Lugo. I am not overly enamored with having a right/left, left/right scenario when you platoon some guys anyway. My main point here is that i would consider putting Drew in the 2 spot ahead of Manny. What say you? NebraskaRSfan

Drew definitely is the best fit for the No. 2 spot, but you aren’t going to see Ortiz batting cleanup and Manny hitting third. We’ve won the World Series twice with Papi/Manny, and a switch that was tested out a few years ago did not go well. Factoring that in plus my favoring alternating L/R in the lineup, I’d put Drew in the six slot. I think he could succeed there, and he can move up to second when bench players enter the fold. Also, don’t be surprised to see Pedroia/Youk start the season at the top, as not to pressure Crisp/Ellsbury.

In view of two years comparatively low OBP (offensive stats) for Crisp, I would seldom use him in the leadoff position. If Crisp is in the lineup opening day and Ellsbury is on the bench or at AAA, where would you use Crisp in the lineup? My vote would be Youkilis in the leadoff slot because of the Red Sox performance when he leads off - They have a good winning record. Crisp and Lugo could steal to their hearts content from the 8 and 9 slots. NebraskaRSfan

If I was running teams, I would put the lineup as: Drew, Youkilis, Ortiz, Ramirez, Lowell, Pedroia, Varitek, Lugo, Crisp. If Crisp does end up winning the job, he’s got no shot at leading off, not with the numbers he’s put up the last couple of years. That’s already a certainty.

How do you see the competition for the remaining bullpen slot playing out? NebraskaRSfan

If I had my way, David Aardsma would make the team. Kyle Snyder would be given his walking papers, and we’d move Crisp for a left-handed starting reliever and move Javier Lopez. Since I’m probably dreaming, the status quo is probably being kept: Papelbon, MDC, Okajima, Lopez, Snyder, Timlin. The last spot depends on if Buchholz or Tavarez wins the No. 5. If it’s Tavarez, then it’ll likely be Aardsma. If it’s Buchholz, Tavarez is your guy.

Do you see any chance of the Red Sox releasing Doug Mirabelli and going with Kottaras? NebraskaRSfan

None. The Red Sox aren’t interested in going through the Josh Bard debacle in. Factor in that Kottaras had a subpar offensive season, and the choice is easy. If it was Jeff Clement, you’d have a real quandary on your hands. But there is no catcher pushing Belli, so the Sox will punt offense out of the backup C in order to have Wakefield do his job. EOA

Kottaras and Brown are listed as 6′0″ and 185, 180 respectively. In comparison, Tek is 6′2″, 230 and Posada is 6′2″, 215. Do you think Kottaras and Brown are undersized for catching in MLB? NebraskaRSfan

That’s a good question. To start off, Joe Mauer is 6′5″, 220 and people feel he’s too tall for the position. I don’t think Kottaras and Brown are undersized. I think Varitek and Posada are among two of the better built catchers in the game, which would make sense as they are also some of the best catchers in the game. For comparison, I-Rod is 5′9″, 205. Kottaras and Brown are still young, they’ll pack on the muscle eventually. They do need to gain some pounds, but it’s by no means a lost cause.

Do you see any possibility of the Sox packaging 2-3 of the excessive rp’s for a really solid prospect? Would give an instant pen to someone, whos maybe way down on the waiver pick list. soxx

I don’t think that will happen. It’s a good idea, but if a team has 2-3 gaping holes in their bullpen right now, the GM didn’t do their job properly. They would rather go with a scrub journeyman or pluck someone off waivers rather than give up a solid prospect for someone else’s rejects.

Do you see the Sox making a major effort to sign Texeira if he goes as a FA? soxx

Soxx: Actually, glad you asked that. Yes, I do. Manny and Papi are getting older. Youkilis is a valuable resource, but he’s not a centerpiece. If we can sign Teixeira, who is a Gold Glover himself, they will do it, and move Youkilis to a different team.

Do you think the Red Sox will ever decide to go ahead with building a new ballpark? Bsports

I suspect Fenway won’t make it’s 200th anniversary, but it just might make 150. (It’s 100th anniversary is 2012.)

With Lars Anderson in the pipeline… is Teixeira really a serious thought? or would they trade Anderson? NebraskaRSfan

No way, they won’t trade Lars. Texeira would absolutely be a serious thought for a number of reasons… One: He fills a need now. Lars is three, four years away. Two: The DH position may have opened then. Three: Lars may just be another prospect who never fulfills our dreams for him. He’ll follow an Aaron Bates track this year. (Majority of the year in Lancaster, a month in Portland.) Speaking of Aaron Bates, don’t be surprised to see him break out this year.

You mentioned Almanzar, how far away is he, and where do you see him playing? soxx

Almanzar’s a future 3B, he’s 17 years old and let’s give him time, but with his talent, he could be in the majors before he can drink legally. Don’t bet on it, but the possibility exists.

Sign Bonds, platoon him with Manny, give time at DH to Manny Papi and Bonds and rotate Youks Lowell and Papi at 1st. Is that not the greatest idea since the wheel? Dave_B

No need to. Why get the distraction? Let the Mets sign him. Clubhouse harmony is key. Sign Bonds you bring his attitude AND piss off Manny, Papi and Youk.

A bit hard to really project how good a 17 or 18 year old kid will turn out, in my opinion. Bsports

Absolutely, but there are those that you just KNOW. People knew with A-Rod, Justin Upton… Almanzar is reportedly in that category.

Evan, realistically, do you see any hope of Hansen turning things around? He continues to be very inconsistent in ST…He may just be at the end of his rope. Bsports

Yes, I do. It’s spring training. He was too heralded to just fall apart. Plus, the surgery to correct sleep apnea may be crucial. May be with the Sox, may not be — but he’ll have a career as a relief pitcher.

Evan, do you think that Francona’s tendency to manage for the long haul of the season instead of a particular regular season game creates the acrimony toward him? NebraskaRSfan

Do you really think the manager’s job means a whole lot in terms of wins and losses? Dave_B

Yes, I think it does. Fans are kneejerk people. It’s about the next game. Tito understands it’s about the next game, next month and past that. Not all of his decisions end up being right, but he does show a knack for making the switch at the make or break time if there needs to be one. Dave: Five game swing.

Evan, do you see the Red Sox ownership selling their investment anytime soon? NebraskaRSfan

No, I haven’t heard any rumblings of that. I remember when they first bought it there were rumblings that they would turn around and sell it in the next five years. No, I would expect them here through 2012, then start thinking about selling.

This entry was posted on Monday, March 10th, 2008 at 12:08 pm and is filed under Justin Masterson, Michael Bowden, Jed Lowrie, Devern Hansack, Bartolo Colon, Lars Anderson, Chih-Hsiang Huang, Oscar Tejeda, Michael Almanzar, Dusty Brown, Doug Mirabelli, George Kottaras, Manny Ramirez, Jacoby Ellsbury, Mark Teixeira, Kevin Youkilis, Terry Francona, Mike Lowell, Craig Hansen, Clay Buchholz, Coco Crisp, Jonathan Papelbon, Evan Brunell. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.