MVN: Most Valuable Network

A few weeks ago I asked "the crowd" here at MVN and specifically the Fire Brand community to participate in an social experiment of the highest order of importance to the future of mankind.

The challenge at the time was to investigate the merits of group think as applied to baseball projections.

"That got me thinking. While the idea of community projections has existed in blog circles for a while, I haven’t seen any real good breakdown as to if those projections were more accurate in aggregate vs. any single individual or experts predictions."

I am happy to report that we had nearly forty responses per regular player and at least fifteen to twenty on the reserves and relievers which I believe will provide a fairly good sample size to work from as we aim to answer that question.

I have published the summary spreadsheet for you all to peruse should you like here, and pulled the tables into this post for the purposes of discussion.

Before looking at what we as a group came up with for each player this season, I want to explain a few methodological items in the data that you will see below.

For each player, the statistics represented here are a straight average of the individual projections submitted rounded as appropriate.   I did throw out a few outliers as I don't expect David Ortiz to steal 900 stolen bases this season.

To get to the team summaries, I took a few liberties to "weight" the individual player rate stats as best possible so Kevin Cash's .215 batting average didn't disproportionately bring down the team average.  I did however keep their production in the additive data points like home runs and stolen bases.

I then compared that data to the team's total 2007 productivity for comparative purposes.

For pitchers, I subtotaled the activity from the pitchers we projected and filled the additional innings pitched to reach last years total with a 5.00 pitcher with a 4-5 record to reach a full team projection.

In total, the crowd expects this Red Sox team to hit slightly better than last years team.  But while the rate stats don't change dramatically, the production stats are projected to increase in double digit percentages.  It loos like most of that increased production falls squarely on the shoulders of Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz as the crowd sees both sluggers showing the power that was missing last season.

The crowd is high on Dustin Pedroia repeating his rookie campaign and avoiding the sophomore jinx.  Mike Lowell should regress a little, but quite honestly, the crowd sees him hitting a little better than I do over the course of the season.

J.D. Drew seems to be proving the crowd "wise" with his hot start and Julio Lugo doesn't look like he could possibly be as bad as he was in the first half of last season.  Collectively we see both players stepping it up in their second year with the Red Sox.

The crowd is still high on Jacoby Ellsbury, but the spread between Ellsbury and Coco Crisp isn't nearly as dramatic as it sounds like the crowd thinks (if you judge the crowd through the airwaves of WEEI).  I think the collective wisdom nailed this giving a slight edge to Ellsbury but not counting out Coco Crisp as an unproductive non-factor.

Turning to the pitchers, I find this to be a very realistic collective projection.  Looking first to the projected record and team results as compared to the 2007 team you can see that even with a slightly higher team ERA and more runs allowed, this staff doesn't project to fall to far.  With slightly higher offensive projection and slightly worse pitching than the 96 win 2007 team, I find it extremely interesting that the collection of wins and losses projected here match that record.

The collective opinion of Josh Beckett is in line with the public perception of him as the Red Sox ace.  With numbers like 19-8 with a 3.60 ERA and nearly 200 strike outs, he'll be in the hunt for the Cy Young for a second consecutive season.  Daisuke Matsuzaka and Jon Lester look to be a more productive contributors this season.  I think the crowd is a little high on Lester while Matsuzaka could out perform the communities expectations.

The most surprising thing for me was the collective projection for Clay Buchholz.  While eleven wins isn't out of the question in twenty to twenty-five starts,  a 3.72 ERA is too much to ask of or expect from the young right hander.  If the Red Sox get anything less than a mid-four ERA out of Buchholz, I think we would have to be happy with that.

Looking quickly to the bullpen, Jonathan Papelbon will be Jonathan Papelbon again this season.  The crowd isn't so sure that Hideki Okajima can repeat the dominance of his 2007 campaign, but still see him as a top flight set up guy.  What is more interesting however is the confidence the crowd has in the Manny Delcarmen who they see as posting up numbers very similar to Okajima at the back of the pen this season.

As the season progresses, we'll update actual stats against these projections and report back on any individuals whose projections strayed from the norm proving them to be the true baseball experts.

If in fact crowds do have a greater "collective wisdom", the Boston Red Sox do look like they are lined up for another run at the World Series this season.

Thanks to all who participated!!!