MVN - Most Valuable Network

Clay Buchholz - phillenium1979 (Flickr)

Lester Or Buchholz: Who Stays?

Monday night’s start for Jon Lester was another golden example of how the young lefty has yet to mature into a reliable major league starting pitcher on a every five day basis. While Lester possesses a plus fastball and a curveball that occasionally drops off the table, his main problem has persisted to plague him for another season: control. We hoped this off-season would be a maturation process for Lester in that 1) he had finally recovered 100% from the cancer, and 2) he would turn into a power left-hander who threw strikes, and, best case scenario, would turn into a #2 starter.

So far this season, Lester has thrown one outstanding start against weak hitting Oakland, one below average start against Detroit and two bad starts in Japan vs. the A’s and Monday at Cleveland. Lester isn’t being consistently pounded for home runs and hits (just two big ones- Emil Brown and Marcus Thames), but he’s constantly falling behind in the count, throwing all over the zone and putting too many free runners on base. It’s the same problem that haunted Lester the last two seasons. Before he was extremely lucky in stranding runners, and now his fortunate pace is beginning to even out.

In 20.1 IP, Lester has 15 BB and 10 SO equaling a 5.31 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP. For a pitcher expected to break out in a big way this season, Lester has not lived up to the expectations thus far.

Am I giving up on the kid? Not even close. Many young left-handers needed years to mature, harness their pitching abilities and stuff, and become the force they were hyped up to be by scouts and the like. Lester is just 24 years old and when the next 6.1 IP, 3 H, 1 ER start comes around for the southpaw, we’ll all be asking ourselves why this discussion is even occurring. But, for now, there is concern for Lester in his consistency at the major league level. This leads me to ask this question:

Should Jon Lester be sent down to the minors when Bartolo Colon is healthy and ready to return on May 1?

Remember, Colon can opt out of his contract on that date and may do so if he is 100% healthy and the Red Sox are making no plans to slot him into the rotation, or at least call him up to the big club. When Colon is prepared, we all assumed Clay would likely receive a few months in AAA to lessen the workload on the prized right-hander this early in his career, and because we have the luxury to do so. Meanwhile, in 11 IP, Buchholz has 5 BB and 10 SO. Wouldn’t we be hurting the team by sending down the better arm?

It’s a question that will have to be evaluated by Theo Epstein and his cohorts in the coming weeks. There is still time for Lester to turn it around, for Buchholz to blow up, or for Colon to refuse to opt out due to injury and we can put this discussion on the backburner until June or so. But, let’s say Lester continues to show wavering location, walk hitters, tax the bullpen and maintain an ERA in the 5’s. Then what?

Another concern with keeping Lester around is, well, he’s essentially a poor man’s Daisuke Matsuzaka. They both are plagued with the same weaknesses on the hill, and it could be damaging to the Red Sox bullpen early with these two arms going back to back days. While Matsuzaka has three wins and a low ERA, his 15 walks in 4 starts match Lester’s (lack of) production. It’s repetitive, and in a bad way.

I want to do all we can to keep Lester throwing every five days on the major league level. Giving up on this prized arm this soon would be reactionary and it’s possible, with the Red Sox offense and positive contributions from Beckett, Matsuzaka and Buchholz, some Lester struggles can be handled. Sending him to triple-A may hinder his progress if anything and screw up the kid. Juggling arms like Lester from level to level isn’t the best way to handle players.

If Colon will ever receive his fair chance, though, someone may have to leave the rotation. If Buchholz excels and Lester continues walking down this road, while it is beautiful to have this type of depth, it leaves a potentially damaging conundrum.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, April 16th, 2008 at 3:31 am and is filed under Bartolo Colon, Clay Buchholz, Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox / Zach Hayes. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.