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Can Matsuzaka Reach Ace Status?

By Zach Hayes | May 3rd, 2008

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Daisuke Matsuzaka came to the United States with the reputation and hype of an Ace.

Daisuke Matsuzaka was then paid like an Ace should be paid.

The entire 2006-2007 offseason became devoted to revolving gossip on: the Red Sox brand new Ace.

With his flashing start to begin the ’08 season, is Dice-K finally about to reach Ace status?

It can be difficult defining exactly what being an Ace entails. The Ace of the pitching staff is one who collects league leading ERA’s, WHIP’s and K/BB. Aces are those who give you supreme confidence your team is winning that game whenever he toes the rubber, I feel that way about Josh Beckett. An Ace is one who stops losing streaks and extends winning streaks. An Ace is a pitcher who racks up the wins by pitching into the game situation and what his offense provides. An Ace beats the best of the other team.

Not every major league team has an Ace. There is a clear difference between the best pitcher on each pitching staff and those who can be labeled an Ace. In fact, there are probably only around 15 in all of baseball. Off the top of my head, I’d say Wang, Beckett, Sabathia, Verlander, Harden (when healthy), Lackey, Bedard, Santana, Hamels, Zambrano, Sheets, Harang, Peavy and Webb make the list, with Haren, Halladay, Kazmir, Carmona, Felix, Hudson, Young and Penny able to argue for slots, and guys like Lincecum, Cain, Billingsley, Ervin Santana, Buchholz, Gallardo, Shields and others emerging.

Is Dice-K an Ace? Right now, there is no way you can include him in that first list, but making an argument he’s reaching the second list is very understandable. In 35 2/3 innings in 2008, the year Dice-K was supposed to finally reach comfortable status being in a new country and the travel constraints that come with being a major league player, Dice-K is 4-0 with a 2.52 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and a 172 ERA+ while surrendering just 20 hits with a 32/19 K/BB.

I won’t go as far as to say Matsuzaka is molding into the eighth wonder of the world, but certainly anyone who watched his 2-hit performance against Toronto sees why he may fall under the second list.

Yes, it’s very early. Yes, it’s not even 36 innings into the season. I’m seeing progress here with Matsuzaka: he’s throwing the impressive changeup with more frequency, he’s throwing more first pitch strikes than at any point last year, he’s attacking hitters rather than nibbling, his mechanics are still inconsistent (especially his release point) but improving steadily. The aura around Matsuzaka has always been one of confidence and superiority, but only now is Matsuzaka showing his capabilities.

The .191 BABIP means Matsuzaka won’t stay near his 2.52 ERA this season, that’s obvious. So, what statistics would qualify Dice-K to make a claim for the second list?

Dan Haren 2007: 222 IP, 214 H, 192/55 K/BB, 3.07 ERA, 1.21 WHIP
Roy Halladay: 225 IP, 232 H, 139/48 K/BB, 3.71 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Scott Kazmir: 206 IP, 196 H, 239/89 K/BB, 3.48 ERA, 1.38 WHIP
Fausto Carmona: 215 IP, 199 H, 137/61 K/BB, 3.06 ERA, 1.21 WHIP
Felix Hernandez: 190 IP, 209 H, 165/53 K/BB, 3.92 ERA, 1.37 WHIP
Tim Hudson: 224 IP, 221 H, 132/53 K/BB, 3.33 ERA, 1.22 WHIP
Chris Young: 173 IP, 118 H, 167/72 K/BB, 3.12 ERA, 1.10 WHIP
Brad Penny: 208 IP, 199 H, 135/73 K/BB, 3.03 ERA, 1.31 WHIP
Average: 208 IP, 199 H, 163/63 K/BB, 3.34 ERA, 1.26 WHIP
2007 Dice-K: 204 IP, 191 H, 201/80 K/BB, 4.40 ERA, 1.32 WHIP

The innings pitched, hits allowed and WHIP are manageable, and Matsuzaka is on his way to lowering his K/9 this season already, yet that’s just an average and doesn’t quantify certain styles. What Matsuzaka has to do is substantially lower the amount of hitters he walks and runs high counts on as to have a better chance to lower his ERA by relying mainly on balls in play and staying in games. The only pitcher to walk more was Scott Kazmir, but he ran away with the strikeout title from that list of distinguished pitchers.

How much can be determined from the average numbers of a list made by someone just randomly throwing pitchers into a group? I’ll leave that up to you. Still, here’s what I’m expecting from the 2008 version of Daisuke Matsuzaka for him to make the Leap to the next level in the majors:

208 IP, 199 H, 163/63 K/BB, 3.34 ERA, 1.26 WHIP

After he accomplishes that stat line, then we can talk about what it will take for Matsuzaka to accomplish what he set out to do in the United States: become an Ace.

This entry was posted on Saturday, May 3rd, 2008 at 1:00 pm and is filed under Daisuke Matsuzaka, Boston Red Sox / Zach Hayes. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

8 Responses to “Can Matsuzaka Reach Ace Status?”

Fully Manny says:

May 3rd, 2008 at 2:10 pm

Opponeents are currently batting .164 off Matsuzaka. What makes you think he’ll give up 199 hits in 208 IP?
Tim Daloisio says:

May 3rd, 2008 at 2:38 pm

I’ll leave the stats behind on this one…what do your eyes tell you? Does Matsuzaka look and feel like a #1 starter? I would argue not…

At this point, he is still not able to command a game from beginning to end. He inevitably gets too fine with his pitches and runs needlessly high counts. He is still too prone to walks when he should be pounding the zone.

He doesn’t have that aura that you mention around him quite yet. He is still a question mark every time he rears back to throw the ball.

That all said, he’s making tremendous strides this year. But I need to see him more often dominate a game going 8 innings in 100 pitches before I can truly consider him an ace.
TALL THRILL says:

May 3rd, 2008 at 6:08 pm

I love Dice-K but…

When I think of an Ace, it all goes back to the feeling I would get waiting for Pedro’s day to pitch when I was growing up. If it weren’t for the 2007 playoffs, I’m not sure that Beckett even makes my list.

Chris Young is my roommates favorite pitcher (I live in San Diego) so don’t tell him I said this, but the guy does not deserve ace consideration. He has never pitched 180 innings in a season. He has only won more then nine games in a season twice (11 and 12 wins). I don’t know how John Smoltz or Roy Oswalt didn’t get consideration when that average #1 or above average #2 does.

Love the article though. When he is not walking guys (frustrating) Dice-K is my favorite pitcher to watch. I was fortunate enough to be there for the finals of the WBC and I watched him beat Maddux at PETCO last summer. He might make it (27 yrs old) to ace status. When I’m in Boston this summer I will be checking the pitching probables before I drop the cash for good seats to be at one of Daisuke’s starts.
Fully Manny says:

May 3rd, 2008 at 6:14 pm

Tim, the guy has a 2.50 ERA and a WHIP under 1.10. Sure, he walks more than he should right now, but hitters simply aren’t touching him. His single most important pitch is his strikeout slider which made him so effective in Japan. He’s finally showed up here in the States as well and the effects are obvious. Hitters are batting .164 off of him!

I love to watch him pitch cause the hitters look absolutely helpless right now.
Tim Daloisio says:

May 3rd, 2008 at 6:54 pm

@Full Manny….reading back my comments…they were a little harsher than intended…but I still don’t get the feeling that we have seen the best out of DiceK. I haven’t felt like I was watching him totally in control of himself and the game.

If he can (and I think he will) make that next step from awesome stuff to the “Pedro-like” ownership of a game, thats when this gets even more special.

I also love watching him pitch…but I also can get incredibly frustrated at the same time…
Evan Brunell says:

May 3rd, 2008 at 11:43 pm

If he posts your projection, that’s the numbers of an ace in the ALE.
Ash says:

May 4th, 2008 at 9:43 am

It is easy to poke holes in DiceK but consider some differences in the comparisons. He is being compared to US pitchers that have come up through the US system. Pitchers that are use to a more conservative strike zone and ones that operate on a different rotation. Some say that doesn’t really matter but a portion of all pitching involves muscle memory and habits, which can be hard to break. He has an impeccable work ethic, he is humble and has great potential. Those are the ingredients that an Ace needs. One year is a bad sample size. After the 2006 season, there were many who thought Becket would not become the ace he is now. One key thing I notice right now is that when DiceK gets himself into a jam, he does not appear to be rattled. It’s not always pretty but he stays in until he’s thrown 100+ pitches and usually pitches out of it. I agree that he throws too many pitches seemingly by choice. That is one problem with him that I cannot defend. He will definitely have to fix that before moving to the next level.
Ripley says:

May 5th, 2008 at 8:17 pm

@Fully Manny

The reason Zach has DiceK giving up almost 200 hundred hits this season is do largely to the fact that his BABIP is very low right now ( .191). Since pitchers have very little control over BABIP we should a regression toward the mean (about .300 for pitchers) over the course of the season. Now that isn’t to say that his BABIP will be .300 by the end of the season, it is highly unlikely that he will be able to maintain the .191 BABIP.