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Who’s On Deck? - with The Bottom Line

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On Sundays, while most of us sleep off Saturday’s hangover, Rob from The Bottom Line will take a look at the upcoming match-ups for the Red Sox is a weekly post called Who’s On Deck… You all know the scoop with the Sox, so we’ll focus on the opponents in the feature.

This week the Red Sox will travel to the mid west for a 4-game series with the Tigers followed by a weekend set with the Twins.

Expected Pitching Match-ups:

Daisuke Matsuzaka - vs - Jeremy Bonderman
Tim Wakefield - vs - Nate Robertson
Clay Buccholz - vs - Armando Gallaraga
Josh Beckett – vs - Justin Verlander

Jon Lester - vs – Boof Bosner
Daisuke Matsuzaka - vs - Nick Blackburn
Tim Wakefield - vs - Kevin Slowey or Matt Guerrier ??

Detroit Tigers

After losing 9 of their first 11 games, the Tigers won 12 of the next 17 games, and swept the Yankees to close out the month. During that span they outscored their opponents 117 to 74, averaging almost 7 runs per game (6.8) - showcasing the top ranked offense that everybody drooled over during the off season.

The slumping Tigers that the Red Sox faced in early April are gone.

Players to Watch: CF Curtis Granderson and 2B Placido Polanco. It’s no coincidence that the Tigers started righting the ship in mid-April. Granderson returned to the leadoff spot on April 23rd and is batting .310 with 3 homers and 11 runs scored in just 8 games played. Polanco, who had 200 hits and 105 runs in 2007, also found his stroke – batting .407 (11-27) with 4 multi-hit performances since April 25th.

With these two guys as hot as they are, and Ordonez, Cabrera and Guillen batting behind them, the Tigers will continue to score not matter who’s pitching.

The saving grace for the Red Sox may be the Tigers pitching staff – owners of a 4.85 team ERA (28th in ML). Bonderman is 2-2 with a modest 3.86 ERA, but Robertson, Verlander and Rogers all own ERAs over 6.00. Verlander’s struggles are the most surprising. His 20 Ks in 36 innings (0.55%) is far below the 0.91% K-rate (183/201.1) he had in 2007. He’s off to a bad start but the Tigers are averaging just 3.8 runs per game for their ace (1.8 if you take out the 10-2 win over Texas).

Pitcher to Watch: Verlander is 8-2 with a 2.87 ERA in May, so we may see him turn the page this week, but spot starter Armando Galarraga could be the guy that gives the Sox trouble. Galarraga is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA in 3 starts for Detroit. Most recently he blanked the Blue Jays and held the Angels to 1 run over 6 innings. He’s allowed just 7 hits in 18 innings of work, earning a ridiculous .113 BAA. It should be fun to watch him go toe-to-toe with Buchholz…

Bottom Line: The Red Sox will need all the offense they can find to beat the Tigers. It got ugly the last time Wake and Robertson squared off (12-6 Sox) and expect more of the same this week. Look for Verlander to raise his game when he faced Beckett on Thursday.

** NOTE: Tigers Manager Jim Leyland has stated that he will feature a “dramatically different” lineup when they host the Red Sox this week… **

Minnesota Twins

The Santana-less Twins managed to keep pace with the pack in April find themselves neck and neck with the Tigers, Indians and White Sox. That said, they also find themselves in the middle of the pack statistically - with a .260 team BA (10th)… just 102 runs scored (27th)… 14 HRs (30th)… and a 4.24 ERA (16th).

When Livan Hernandez (3-1, 5.05, 13 Ks) and Boof Bosner (2-4, 3.75, 22 Ks) are fighting for the title of ace on your team… you should probably just be happy that people are still buying tickets.

Players to Watch: 1B Justin Morneau is the offensive leader on this team, with Joe Mauer and Delmon Young still lacking in the production department. Morneau also owns a .304 BA against Boston. The other guy to watch will be leadoff man Carlos Gomez – especially when he faces Wakefield. Go-Go Gomez does nothing but steal bases (11), so someone will need to tell Tek and Cash to do some extra stretching before this series…

Pitchers to Watch: As I mentioned above, the Twins rotation is nothing to be scared of, and with Fransisco Liriano back in AAA, it’s unclear who the Sox will face over the weekend. Kevin Slowey is a promising young starter who went 4-1 in 11 starts last year, but he’s been on the DL since April 4th and may not be ready… Boof Bosner doesn’t just have an awesome name, he’s also undefeated against the Sox (2-0, 3.75). Bosner had 136 Ks in 173 innings last year – averaging 4.5 whiffs per start… One strength the Twins have their bullpen. Closer Joe Nathan has converted all 9 of his save opportunities and owns a 0.82 ERA, set-up man Pat Neshek has a career BAA of 1.84 and veteran Dennys Reyes hasn’t allowed a run in 12 appearances this season.

Bottom Line: The Twins don’t score a ton, the Sox will find it difficult to pull off the late game heroics we’ve gotten used to against their relievers. That said, despite losing the 2007 season series 2-4, the Sox only out scored the Twins 22 to 16 and every game was decided by 3 runs or less…

Get more Red Sox analysis from BL Rob at The Bottom Line Blog.

This entry was posted on Sunday, May 4th, 2008 at 3:50 pm and is filed under Justin Verlander, Curtis Granderson, Placido Polanco, Joe Nathan, Boof Bonser, Minnesota Twins, Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Detroit Tigers, Clay Buchholz, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Tim Wakefield, Guest Columns. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.