MVN - Most Valuable Network

Jed Lowrie is one of Boston's hot prospects - Dean Lima (HardballWarriors.com)

Prospect Update

If you’re new here, you may want to subscribe to my RSS feed. Thanks for visiting!

The Red Sox are positioning themselves to be the favorite in the American League once again. The Sox have been led by a promising rotation that posted a 1.69 ERA in 10 starts up until Wednesday (36 hits in 69+ innings), a lineup beginning to hit its stride led by the resurgent David Ortiz and scalding hot Kevin Youkilis, and a bullpen that will only improve with the additions of Craig Hansen and Justin Masterson down the stretch run. The Red Sox were just a Julio Lugo error away from a four-game sweep in Detroit and now head to Minnesota and Baltimore to finish up a long road trip. At 23-14 through 37 games, I feel quite comfortable with the current structure of the Red Sox.

I figured we’d take a break from discussion over Dice-K’s control, or when Buchholz will be sent to Pawtucket, or the Crisp/Ellsbury situation and if it will ever be resolved…and take a look at the young kids down on the farm in the Red Sox minor league system. Dave and Mike do a tremendous job on Sox on Deck here at MVN and should be daily reading material to get diehards caught up with the minor leaguers. For me, I needed to take an in-depth look at how our top prospects are faring in the minors, so really this article is for me as much as anyone else.

While Theo Epstein and Co. have spent their fair share on free agents and lengthy contracts, the organization has undeniably taken great strides to build a top farm system in the majors. They’ve utilized their financial prowess to sign top-notch prospects to large signing bonuses and their scouting department is lauded around baseball as the cream of the crop, a group that helped draft, mold and send Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jonathan Papelbon, Manny Delcarmen, Clay Buchholz, Jon Lester and many more (don’t forget Hanley Ramirez) to playing key roles for the defending champs. Names like Michael Bowden, Justin Masterson, Ryan Kalish and Lars Anderson look to make the next impact. Let’s examine how some top prospects are faring a month into the season.

1 .Justin Masterson, SP, Portland

Masterson got the call to make an emergency spot start against the Angels at Fenway earlier this year and shone on the big stage, surrendering just two hits and four walks in six impressive innings against a contender. Masterson has drawn Derek Lowe comparisons due to his phenomenally heavy sinker that drops off the table against lefties and righties and normally sits around 89-92 MPH, a truly plus pitch. While I doubt Masterson ever becomes a #1 starter, his sinkerball can produce ground balls outs much like Chien-Ming Wang has been doing for the Yankees over the course of his young career. Some even suggest he projects as a dominating reliever rather than a starter due to his inability to pitch very deep into games.

Unfortunately, Masterson hasn’t found quite the same success in Portland as his four starts prior to the nod against LA. From April 3-19, Masterson tossed 19 innings giving up 14 hits, a 23/5 K/BB and only two runs allowed. The two starts following his debut, it’s been a different story: 8.2 IP, 9 H, 8 ER, 5 BB, 11 K. One poster on SoSH remarked that Masterson cruised through five innings in his previous start before becoming visibly fatigued in the sixth inning. Still, an overall 3.25 ERA with 34 K in 27 IP and a remarkable GB/FB ratio (3.18) lends me to believe Masterson plays a major role in the Red Sox bullpen later this season.

2. Michael Bowden, SP, Portland

While Masterson has slumped his last two outings, Michael Bowden is turning it on in Portland. Bowden certainly has the ceiling to be a #2 arm in the majors for the Red Sox, but failed to produce any outstanding numbers in Portland in 2007 to suggest he’d reach that plateau. His arsenal of four pitches is certainly impressive, though: A mid-90s four seam fastball, a 12-6 breaking curve, a circle changeup and a tight slider. The key for Bowden is keeping his four seamer down in the zone with the heavy sinking movement as it produces ground balls.

As I said, Bowden’s last three outings have been tremendous: 18.2 IP, 5 H, 1 BB, 9 K, which is a definite improvement from his prior four starts in which he didn’t make it out of the fifth inning and an April 21 start that concluded with a 4.2 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 5 K line. With just over one strikeout per inning and only 26 hits surrendered in 37 innings, Bowden may be making his way up to a September call-up. Still, the young right-hander must show consistency over a long period of time before he is considered, and will most likely make his first appearance in 2009 after some time in Pawtucket.

3. Lars Anderson, 1B, Lancaster

Of any Red Sox prospect, Anderson may have the highest ceiling. A large and dynamic slugger with a smooth upper-cut swing and power to all fields, Anderson looks like a young superstar to many scouts. Lars is a prime example of Theo using his financial capabilities to sign a player later in the draft that may have gone 15 rounds earlier, succumbing to Anderson’s bonus demands. While the scouts suggest Anderson has the tools, his numbers have not been outwardly sensational. In 458 AB last year at single-A Greenville, Anderson managed just a .828 OPS while homering only 10 times in 458 AB with a 112/71 K/BB ratio. He looks to put up more impressive totals in hitter-friendly Lancaster, and is off to a decent start: .840 OPS, 5 HR, 29/20 K/BB, 57 TB in 121 AB.

4. Ryan Kalish, OF, Greenville

A ninth round pick in 2006, Ryan Kalish’s name began to reach discussions in the Johan Santana trade talks over the winters, and many Red Sox fans were cautious about parting with Kalish, a talented, quick outfield prospect that compiled a 1.011 OPS for single-A Lowell in 87 AB last season. Kalish projects to be in a leadoff hitter type mold featuring improving plate discipline and power potential. Kalish could take over in right field once J.D. Drew’s contract expires and won’t give up much on defense. At just 20 years old, Kalish has plus range and a plus throwing arm.

In 2008, Kalish may be feeling lingering effects from a nagging wrist injury he suffered last season. In 45 AB, he’s off to a .267/.393/.356 start with just two XBH. Expect his numbers to improve quickly once he returns to 100% and quickly vault up the Red Sox prospect rankings.

5. Josh Reddick, OF, Lancaster

Speaking of quickly leaping up prospect rankings, Josh Reddick continues to compile outstanding statistics at all levels. Along with Kalish, Reddick projects as a reliable defensive corner outfielder with excellent arm strength and accuracy. While the power has yet to develop and the frame yet to fill out, Reddick scorches line drives all over the diamond, evident by his .306 AVG in Greenville last season followed by a .340 this season before a promotion. Reddick is now taking Lancaster by storm. He tallied a three-hit performance on May 2 and now stands at .314/.397/.491 in 14 games.

6. Daniel Bard, RP, Greenville

Has Bard finally found a niche as a lights out reliever? Bard has been a complete mystery for the Red Sox since being drafted in the first round in 2006 out of North Carolina where he starred as Andrew Miller’s teammate (don’t throw up, but we drafted him ahead of Chamberlain). In 2007 at Greenville and Lancaster, Bard was a complete train wreck, finishing with 75 IP, 78 H, 78 BB, 48 K and an ERA in the mid-7’s. Once looking like a lost cause, Bard has turned it around in a big way in 2008, just surrendering his first two earned runs of the season May 7. In 24 IP at Greenville, Bard has given up just 12 hits, 1 HR and struck out 37 hitters. What an absolutely mind-boggling turnaround. His delivery change has been key- a more over-the-top motion, aiding a high-90s fastball, a high-70s curveball and other developing secondary pitches. He could be a fixture in the Red Sox bullpen in a few years.

Also, keep an eye on Mark Wagner (.320/.395/.453) and George Kottaras (.256/.362/.504) to contend for a backup spot in 2009.

Again, for constant updates from around the minor league system, visit Sox on Deck.

This entry was posted on Friday, May 9th, 2008 at 12:01 am and is filed under Lars Anderson, Josh Reddick, Ryan Kalish, Justin Masterson, Michael Bowden, Craig Hansen, Daniel Bard, Zach Hayes. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.