MVN - Most Valuable Network

“Who’s on Deck?” with The Bottom Line

It’s Sunday again, and that means it’s time to take a look at “Who’s On Deck” for the Red Sox this week with The Bottom Line.

The Red Sox will wrap up a four game set in Minnesota to start the week, followed by a two game set with the Baltimore Orioles. They’ll get Thursday off before hosting the Milwaukee Brewers over the weekend in our first taste of inter-league action this year.

So what do we know about the O’s?

Despite the fact that most expected the Orioles to be fighting with an improved Rays team for last place in the AL East, the Orioles came out guns-a-blazin’ in April and won 15 of their first 26 games (0.57 W%). However, as of May 11th, the O’s have won just 3 of their last 10 – and two of those wins happened on May 8th and 9th against the Royals.

Perhaps a trip to K.C. was just what the Orioles needed, but a day off before and after the two game set with Boston, might just cool off this overachieving squad.

The off days will make it difficult to predict who the Red Sox will face in Baltimore, but right now it looks like Daniel “Wild Thing” Cabrera and Steve “4.35 career ERA” Traschel.

Cabrera has a history with the Red Sox, the last incident of which involved Coco Crisp dancing a balk out of Cabrera and frustrating him enough to then throw a fastball behind Dustin Pedroia – resulting in a bench clearing brawl.

Cabrera has always been wild and brash, but after two mediocre starts to open the season, the Orioles “ace” has gone 6+ innings in every start and has not allowed more than 3 runs in any of them – in fact, he only allowed 3 run once in a loss to the Angels.

He’s 3-1 with a 3.54 ERA on the year and has recently cut down on the walks: 3 in his last 16.1 IPs, while fanning 13 over that span. His last time out was a complete game win over the Royals in which he gave up just 3 hits and 1 walk while striking out 7.

But before you get worried that “Wild Thing” Cabrera has changed for the better, keep in mind that he has given up 12 earned runs in 3 starts at home this year and owns a 5.08 ERA at Camden Yards. He’s also just 1-9 with a 7.84 ERA against Boston…

Interestingly, Alex Cora, who will likely be back with the Sox by Monday, has a team leading 20 at-bats against Cabrera and is 11-21 (.550) with a double, a triple and a home run. Julio Lugo is just 3 for 19, so Cora my get the start…

Manny has also struggled against Cabrera (.200 BA) but does have 3 RBI… the red-hot tandem of Youkilis (.308) and Lowell (.500) have had success against “Wild Thing” - so look for them to do some damage On Monday.

As for Traschel, he’s 2-4 with a 6.75 ERA… A win over KC on the 9th broke a 5 game winless streak for the veteran righty. But has he turned the corner? Since he didn’t make it into the 4th inning in 3 of his 7 starts… I’m gonna say no.

Traschel is the master of the no decision. He went 3 for 3 against the Red Sox in 2007 and took an “ND” in 8 of 12 starts at Camden last year – posting a 3-1 record and a 3.65 ERA.

Another interesting factoid – With 15 years in the bigs, Traschel has faced 29 of the 30 ML teams. He’s done the best against the Sox, posting a 2.10 ERA in 4 starts.

Offensively, the guys to look out for are kinda obvious:

OF Nick Markakis: He recently swapped placed in the order with Melvin Mora, sliding to the #3 spot for the O’s; He’s batting .279 with 7 HRs, 25 runs scored and 6 steals; He’s also 6 for his last12 with 5 runs, a grand slam and 3 RBI in his last three games.

2B Brian Roberts: Roberts has been of to a slow start with the bat. He’s batting just .252 at the top of the Orioles order, but he does has 11 steals on the year; The switch-hitting speedster owns a dismal .232 ERA against the Sox, but he’s 5 for 17 with a homer and 3 steals against Beckett – who should be the starter on Monday.

1B Kevin “El Bencho” Millar: Millar’s stats aren’t pretty (.224, 4 HR, 16 RBI) for a #5 hitter, but they could be worse… The fun part will be watching him when guys like Manny reached first base.

After the first of their two off days this May, the Sox will return home to host the Milwaukee Brewers. Since that won’t happen until the weekend here are a few quick hits on the Brew Crew:

Pitching

RSN favorite (note sarcasm) Eric Gagne leads the league with 5 blown saves, He’s got 9 saves on the year with a 6.14 ERA. Ex-Pirates closer Solomon Torres could start to see more 9th inning duties…

Ben Sheets is 4-0 with a 2.29 ERA, but the rest of the Brewers starters have struggled: Suppan (1-2, 5.22, 7 GS), Manny Parra (1-2, 5.79, 7 GS), Carlos Villanueva (1-4, 6.46, 7 GS) and Dave Bush (0-4, 6.98, 5 GS)… and their best young arm Yovanni Gallardo is expected to have knee surgery.

Offense

Prince Fielder hit his 5 home run of the year on Saturday. He had 50 in 2007. He’s off to a slow start overall (.253 BA), but he is notoriously streaky – he hit homers in back to back games 11 times last year and seems to hit them in bunches.

Last year’s NL ROTY Ryan Braun has moved from 3B to the outfield. He’s batting just .264, but has 5 homers and 23 RBI. With Fielder’s production down and Bill Hall’s fall from grace (.270, 35 HR in ’06 - .206, 7 HR in ’08) Braun has been solid in the middle of the lineup, but he’ll need some help from the aforementioned, as well as 2B Rickie Weeks and SS J.J. Hardy if the Brew Crew want to contend loaded NL Central.

OF Cory Hart is a favorite of mine. He leads the team with a .294 BA and is second only to Fielder in OBP (.357). He’s only got 4 steals on the year, but he can run.

This week will feature a couple of returning fan favorites. We’ll see Millar in Baltimore and then Gabe Kapler will return to Boston for the weekend. Kapler’s amazing return to the bigs and hot start has been well documented. He’s since cooled off, but is still batting .290 on the season, but the return of CF Mike Cameron my keep “Kap” on the bench…

Bottom Line: The May schedule is a welcome break for the Red Sox. The O’s appear to be slipping back to where we expected them to be and the Brewers are having some big time issues right now. The Sox should be able to take at least 3 of 5 from these two clubs – but I foresee a sweep of the O’s and 2 of 3 from the Brewers.

Get more Red Sox news and analysis from BL Rob at The Bottom Line: A Red Sox blog.

This entry was posted on Saturday, May 10th, 2008 at 7:59 pm and is filed under Gabe Kapler, Baltimore Orioles, Ben Sheets, Kevin Millar, Steve Trachsel, Daniel Cabrera, Eric Gagne, Josh Beckett, Milwaukee Brewers, Kevin Youkilis, Brian Roberts, Nick Markakis, Mike Lowell, Manny Ramirez, Boston Red Sox / Guest Columns. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.