May 16, 2008
Fatal Flaw?
Theo Epstein has a history of aggressively finding and solving for potential fatal flaws within his Major League roster. While it's hard to consider a bullpen highlighted by the best closer in baseball a fatal flaw, Theo Epstein has to be looking very closely at his bullpen's performance of late and thinking just that.
Let's get one thing out of the way before we start, Jonathan Papelbon has been nothing short of phenomenal this season. Of his two recent blown saves, one was very clearly a result of Julio Lugo's error and a few not well hit balls. Outside of the one outing in Minnesota, Papelbon has done what is expected of him every time he has been handed the ball.
Getting to Papelbon has to be Theo's major concern at this point of the season.
Above is the bullpen's aggregate stats sorted by "Leverage Index".¬ As defined in FanGraph's glossary "Leverage Index" is:
A measure of how important a particular situation is in a baseball game depending on the inning, score, outs, and number of players on base, created by Tom Tango.
In other words, are you playing in critical situations where the game is on the line.¬ I like to look at this in relation to bullpen usage as a measure of the manager's confidence in his relievers or his "rotation".
I don't think the order here holds too much of a surprise, except maybe David Aardsma's lack of exposure to critical situations.
Looking at the top, Hideki Okajima's recent struggles with inherited runners have been well documented both here on Fire Brand and at large. While Okajima is clearly struggling with inherited runners, specifically with the first batter he faces in an outing (.313 average), he has looked very similar to the Okajima of last year much of the time.¬ I would argue that last year he played a little over his head and this year has struggled at the most noticeable times, but that the spread in performance isn't as great as some might think.¬ That being said, it is clearly a worry that Okajima has allowed only a .119 BAA with no runners on, .308 with men on base, and .333 with runners in scoring position.
From my perspective however, the worry isn't specifically for Okajima, he will succeed more often than he fails even if he is not as dominant as he was last season.¬ It is the rest of the bullpen that is failing this team.
Even with Papelbon and Okajima's low ERA's anchoring the bullpen, the Red Sox have the 27th ranked bullpen ERA in baseball (4.56).
You don't need to do too much analysis to see the issues here.¬ Manny Delcarmen's struggles and "demotion" out of the 7th inning or setup to the setup guy role has thrown this bullpen out of whack.¬ On top of that, they haven't found anyone to adequately replace him in that slot in the pen.
Mike Timlin has proven that he can't be looked at as the reliable option that we have come to expect.¬ Craig Hansen's stuff has looked better indeed in his latest go around with the club.¬ But he still seems to have an uncanny knack for getting himself into a big inning seemingly out of nowhere.
That leaves us Javier Lopez and David Aardsma who each have shown that they can be spot relievers at the tail of a pen, but neither can be counted on to consistently shut down offenses late in games.¬ Between the two of them, they have accounted for 21 walks and 30 hits in 36 innings pitched.¬ You can't put that many runners on base and be successful in critical situations late in games.
With Julian Tavarez recently DFA'd and the news that Aardsma and Lopez may be available, I think it is fair to say that Theo is starting to look at addressing this fatal flaw before it steamrolls out of control.
Discussion
13 Comments on "Fatal Flaw?"
#1
Posted by Tim Daloisio, May 16, 2008 12:08 AM
Is it too simple to think that "strike throwers" are more likely to be consistent bullpen options than people prone to walks?
hmmm...I'll make a weekend project to think more about this (a little more analytically than this piece which was born as much out of frustration and innuendo as anything else)...
#2
Posted by jvwalt, May 16, 2008 12:30 AM
I have three thoughts about why relievers are (with rare exception) less consistent than other players.
-- They are marginal talents. Middle relievers are mainly guys who aren't good enough to be starters, or are overly dependent on a single pitch or trick delivery. Marginal players are close to the edge between adequate and replaceable. A little variation upward, they're good. A little downward, they're useless.
-- I suspect that it's almost impossible to set an ideal usage pattern for a reliever. A lot of relievers seem to perform better when they are used frequently. But over time, frequent use will wear them down. I think that's why so many relievers have a pronounced on-year/off-year pattern, or bouts of greatness followed by injury or ineffectiveness. (Eric Gagne, anyone?)
-- Small sample size. It's way easier to throw 60 good innings than 200. Or 60 bad innings, for that matter. And a few bad performances can wreck a reliever's line for an entire season. It's kind of like judging a hitter's performance after 150 ABs.
#3
Posted by radiohix, May 16, 2008 9:48 AM
tim,
I don't know why evrey body is bureing MDC right now, I mean he's been far from average but is that a reason to stop giving him chances to redeem himself!! I remember reading on this very same website in the begining of the season how evrey body was exited about finally havin' our " bridge" and now after 2 shaky outings, evrey body is pressing the panic button and looking for another alternative. All I'm saying is let's give the home boy some chances (I remember Tito givin' a bunch of them to Gagne last season), it's still early, we have the luxury to do it!!
#4
Posted by Ian, May 16, 2008 10:07 AM
I think it's a more general question. League-wide, bullpens have been the least consistent component of a team, year to year. That was understandable a decade ago, when bullpens were typically filled with second-rate starters; it's a little harder to see why that's true now, when teams are drafting and bringing up specialized relievers.
I would be interested in seeing how consistent, year to year, the primary relievers are (the ones who have been relief pitchers through the minors), compared the the failed starter model. Or are there enough of the former to look at yet? Are the Sox unusual in their interest in raising relievers?
For the past few years (since, I think, 2006) Theo's approach to bullpens has been to throw lots of crap at the wall and hope some of it sticks. That suggests to me that Theo, and therefore probably other clubs, really don't know how to identify who will turn out to be a good relief pitcher from one year to the next.
Is this the next "moneyball" breakthrough -- finding some metric that will predict relief performance?
#6
Posted by Evan Brunell, May 16, 2008 11:19 AM
Completely agree with Ian. It's a flaw for a lot (all?) of teams and it changes from year to year... for crying out loud, look at the Rays last year. Historically bad to one of the best. Sox had the best last year and are now 27th...
#7
Posted by Evan Brunell, May 16, 2008 11:22 AM
Redsoxrule: We should play the Thong Song when Giambi comes to bat at Fenway...
#8
Posted by Shawn Medeiros, May 16, 2008 1:25 PM
This bullpen is just in a slump right now. Give us a series against a really good team and they will whip right back into shape.
#9
Posted by SoxAddict, May 16, 2008 5:11 PM
jvwalt: I agree with you on the first and third reasons. The second one I'm not so sure of.
Also, Eric Gagne was a product of steroids, not of frequent use or good/bad years. Use Rudy Seanez as an example instead.
#10
Posted by gerry, May 16, 2008 5:58 PM
I agree with Shawn, and Radio. I think we also need to remember that this has been very long road trip, full of injury and illness. Nothing has been working quite right, but we have held our own.
We couldn't get better than Pap and Oki.
At the other end, Aardsma has been consistent in holding the line, throwing more strikes and fewer walks every time. He is actuallly getting better; as is Lopez. Trading Aardsma is dumb.
Hansen is a work in progress, and done well. Like any brand new rookie, he needs time to get his groove.
Are we actually giving up on MDC after one month of the season? And Timlin? Shall we give up on Papi too?
This is a better bullpen than 2007. It needs to stabilize. A Gagne replacement would have been great, but we missed our chances with Street, Qualls, Nathan who would have nailed it for us. Let's talk about this after the homestand, when this group is performing at a high level again. I can't believe we would trade Aardsma for anyone but Street and Harden.
#11
Posted by Ian, May 16, 2008 8:47 PM
It's been interesting to watch Tito managing the pen, especially early in the year. It seemed clear that he was methodically testing each member of the pen to figure out what he actually had to work with; hence there were times when the wrong person seemed to be throwing, as far as that particular game was concerned. It seemed like an example of Tito's managing for the marathon, not the sprint; willing to risk a loss in one game, so that he would know who would win two down the road.
(Keith Foulke in '04 taught me -- maybe Tito already knew this -- not to pay much attention to spring training, at least as far as relievers are concerned.)
gerry's comment about Aardsma may be the payoff of this strategy. It has seemed to me that Tito's been throwing Aardsma in a bit over his head, but he does seem to be improving. Maybe Tito (and Farrell) saw more there and were willing (or forced) to work with it.
#12
Posted by gerry, May 17, 2008 12:20 AM
Very perceptive. And Aardsma generally did well in those settings, which include middle, late and set-up relief; one and two innings. The walks are decreasing, exceeded by K's, and with the 3rd best ERA on the regular team, the walks haven't been devastating. Aardsma hasn't been great, but he has been consistently reliable, and above average. Maybe he will become great this year. And maybe Manny and Hansen with him. Patience.
#13
Posted by wicked clevah · Gas Out of the Bullpen: Not Exactly What I Had in Mind, May 17, 2008 11:29 PM
[...] fact that the bullpen has cost us nine games already (NINE games, Mrs Bueller) is likely, as Tim notes, high on Theo’s [...]
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