May 26, 2008
Is it time to cut the cord with Manny Ramirez? Looking at life post-ManRam
Even though Manny Ramirez is in a slump, there's no questioning his overall offensive value to the Red Sox.
There is, however, a question as to if that offensive value at his advanced age, plus the baggage coming from "Manny being Manny," is worth $20 million dollars. Should the Red Sox pick up his option for next year, or should they move on? I don't profess to answer that question, at least not yet, but there is something to be said for the Sox cutting Manny loose and moving on.
Should the Red Sox continue to juggle the four-man outfield rotation efficiently so that Coco Crisp is able to get enough reps to keep him from going Jay Payton on us (although he is certainly unhappy) then we could enter next year sans-Manny with arguably the best defensive outfield in the major leagues with Jacoby Ellsbury in left, Coco in center and J.D. Drew in right.
The power issue does come into play because who would back David Ortiz up? All due respect to Manny, he at this point in time statistically is not a clear cleanup hitter. Last year, Manny checked in at a .493 SLG in his age-35 year. In this year, his age-36 year, he's at .489. I hope (wish I could say expect) that number to go up, but it's remarkably consistent with last year's.
On the other hand, Kevin Youkilis' numbers last year checked in at a .453 SLG and it's gone up this year to a .561 SLG in his age-29 year. I am absolutely leery of Youkilis' decline in the second half, but I question whether Youkilis can match, possibly even exceed, Manny's output the next three years. If we all feel he can, then why wouldn't Youkilis make a capable replacement for Manny in the cleanup hole?
The lineup would look something like: LF Ellsbury, 2B Dustin Pedroia, DH Ortiz, 1B Youkilis, RF Drew, 3B Mike Lowell, C Jason Varitek, CF Coco Crisp, SS Julio Lugo... and believe it or not, Crisp and Lugo, at least through the first quarter of the 2008 season, make a good case for being higher in the order: Crisp is at .287/.316/.444, showing some increased power and Lugo is at .292/.354/.340, showing an ability to get on base.
A move of this nature would require a radical shift in thinking. No longer would we wait around for the three-run jimmy jack, but frankly, we haven't done that for a few years now. The 2003 and 2004 offense spoiled us, and despite decreasing our offensive output in order to increase our pitching, defense and speed, we currently rank second in OPS at .809 (Chicago Cubs at .812) and last year ranked third at an .806 OPS (NYY .829, PHI .812). Clearly, losing Manny wouldn't put us in the bottom third of the majors, perhaps not even in the middle third.
Our defense gets a massive upgrade, our speed gets a massive upgrade. Then there's the intangible parts of it. In these circles, "Manny being Manny" is a phenomenon not only tolerated, but embraced. We laugh when Manny high-fives a fan in the middle of a double-play. We write off his prancing at home plate as something all sluggers do. We accept his baserunning blunders, saying you have to give some to get some.
Manny Ramirez is a coach's nightmare. He asks for days off when the team is undermanned. He daydreams on the basepaths. He waits for the ball to roll back after clanging off the outfield wall and sometimes ends up having to run to the ball when it doesn't roll back in the direction he expects or if it doesn't roll fast enough. He's more preoccupied with cutting off fellow outfielders and making sidearm flips that put Lugo out of position rather than making sound, fundamental decisions. He blows off appointments and giggles like a child when asked about them. He sells cars and grills on eBay rather than making sure he's prepared for the season.
I say all this not to bash Manny, because I think Manny is a gifted hitter that was worth every penny up until last year. I think Manny will make a great DH for the Angels next year. I certainly won't shed a tear if he returns as our left-fielder next year, because that means that we still have an offensive force and come on, we've certainly learned over the past eight years how to adapt and deal with his antics, right?
But what about the positives of his departure? His lack of focus is gone. We get a more fundamentally sound team. We'd lose offense over the lineup I presented above, but we haven't even factored in the possibility we'd go get offense elsewhere (such as trading Mike Lowell and signing Mark Teixeira). We'd get $20 million to play with at a position of our choosing (Bobby Abreu, Rafael Furcal, Ben Sheets, Francisco Rodriguez, Brad Penny, C.C. Sabathia and more).
Again, I can't answer the question as to what the Sox would be best served doing. Maybe he gets hot and finishes with a .600 SLG and wins the MVP. The answer's pretty obvious then, isn't it? But what if he replicates his numbers last year? What if his lack of focus costs us a game (as it has before)? Manny's option for next year isn't as clear cut as it can be, and I don't envy Theo for having to deliberate that choice, especially when the choice that may end up being right is also the choice that would engender bad P.R.
What I can say, however, is that there's a certain appeal to a team next year without (in his words) the best left-fielder ever for the Red Sox.
Now that I've horrified you all with thoughts of a post-Manny world, what do you think? What course of action are you leaning to now, and why? Are we better served trading Coco Crisp now for a better bullpen arm and worrying about Manny later, or should we look ahead to cutting Manny loose?
Discussion
13 Comments on "Is it time to cut the cord with Manny Ramirez? Looking at life post-ManRam"
#1
Posted by Gerry, May 26, 2008 12:10 AM
That payroll inflexibility (that's the flip side of this vaunted flexibility) could hurt us. Locking up Manny helped bring us to World Series championships. Nickle and diming, and Not locking Manny, or Youk or Papelbon or Pedroia or Colon or Becket and others just might be the key elements in not winning another one. These guys don't grow on trees, and are next to impossible to replace. Why bother? Why not consider true flexibility, which is not being inflexible about long term signings.
#2
Posted by Jc, May 26, 2008 12:39 AM
our next slugger: http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,23745424-5014066,00.html
#3
Posted by Shawn Medeiros, May 26, 2008 12:44 AM
I would love to keep Manny as well as long as he produces. I do not think you can replace his power so down the road the Sox will have to win in different ways: speed and timely hitting and tough pitching.
#4
Posted by Gerry, May 26, 2008 1:04 AM
This is not horrifying at all. Manny is 36, and is nearing the end of his long career. What we don't know is when he will stop being Manny the difference maker.
Your basic assumption that the 2008 Manny isn't currently the old Manny, has validity. But that also applies to Papi and others on the team.
For example, while Papi was slumping in April, and Mikey, Papi, JD and others were hurt, Manny, Youk, Pedroia, Jacoby, Lowrie and Casey carried the team on their shoulders and kept us in first place. If Manny were not in the lineup, we would not now be contending.
In addition to considering his age and curren slump, his numbers only recently descended to those of mere mortals, no doubt induced by HR #500 issues, and he is giving signs this slump is over. As you said, the question is: will Manny return to the old Manny or not?
We need that power. To allow Manny to leave, the alternative would have to offer comparable power as well as defense, and be long term to insure long term stability in the OF. In reality, there are few available OF'ers that might be comparable to even a 2007 Manny, and they would cost us Manny money.
Internally, Bailey, Carter and Moss are becoming amazing hitters with power that could step in, even if Coco doesn't stay, but represent a marginal upgrade in defense. (IMO, Manny plays the monster well, and has a better, faster arm than both defensive gurus, Coco and Jacoby.)
As a Red Sox fan, Manny being Manny adds a unique dimension to the experience, helping set this championship team apart from the Yankees or Indians or Tigers or Mets. To paraphrase NESN, he is an important part of why we watch. In this sense, letting him go might be very shortsighted.
IMO, assuming Manny returns to near 2006 numbers, we would do well to re-negotiate and extend his contract, making it incentive laden so if age related issues cause him to falter, he earns generously but appropriately; and if he continues to produce at a high level, he continues to get paid at a high level.
In other words, make it possible to keep Manny around for 5 more years while paying him, literally, what he is worth. If he wins, we win. If he and we win, we will compete in postseason until he is past 40, at which point we retire his number with dignity, and champion his entry into the HOF, where he belongs.
#5
Posted by Sean O, May 26, 2008 2:28 AM
Well, since we have no hope of ever getting power again unless Lars develops, as Theo hasn't attempted to find/draft/trade for anyone capable of a .500+ SLG since Ortiz, I'd say we better keep Manny.
We're not going to be in the Teix lottery, and every other power source is or will be locked up long-term. We missed the boat on Cabrera, even with Ellsbury and Lester turning out well.
#6
Posted by jvwalt, May 26, 2008 5:02 AM
I'll be surprised if Manny is back next year, unless he's willing to accept a short and/or incentive-heavy contract. It's been clear for some time that if Theo and Company had been in charge back in the day, they never would have offered the 8-year contract that brought him to Boston. They've made obvious attempts to trade or dump him. The Wily Mo Pena deal was an attempt to prepare for a post-Manny team; didn't work out, but that was the goal.
The Sox brain trust places a high value on payroll flexibility. They won't be willing to sign Manny to a deal that substantially reduces said flexibility.
So what does a Sox team without Manny look like? As Evan said, it would score fewer runs and allow fewer. Outfield defense has a surprising impact on pitching. I'm not particularly worried about the MBM stuff; I think it's far less costly than his lack of range. But it might well be true that a Sox team without (an aging, less productive) Manny would be a better team. Even if you leave the dollars out of it.
#7
Posted by Dougo, May 26, 2008 1:42 PM
I don't think there is any way Theo picks up the option on Manny; like Gerry said, Theo would rather have the pay roll flexibility.
Assuming Theo lets Manny walk, the issue is what to do w/ that 20 million. Trading Lowell and moving Youk over to 3rd and signing Teixiera would be a nice move, but it may not be the blockbuster everyone thinks it would be. While Teixera is a rock solid 30-100-100 player and could easily replace Manny in the cleanup slot, our lineup is already stacked and is there really any sense in fixing what isn't broke.
What I mean to say is: would Teixeira at first and Youk at 3rd really be all that much better than Youk at first and Lowell at 3rd? Why dump a solid contributor like Mike Lowell when you could dump a defensive head ache like Lugo? With Furcal on the market and Lowrie in the system it'd be too easy to replace Lugo.
And if the team gave the SS job to Lowrie there'd be 20 million to invest in relief pitching. Hey! Timlin isn't getting any younger.
Thus far, we have all failed to consider the biggest variable in the Manny-20 mill equation: Pap's contract. If Papelbon can't be signed then closer becomes a top priority and names such as Kerry Wood, Brad Lidge, and K-Rod move to the top of the list. Although in that case, it might be worth it to give Gagne the 20 million to stay the hell out of Boston.
#8
Posted by Jc, May 26, 2008 1:47 PM
Paps arbitration process begins next year, that means he is three years away from free agency, there's no rush for his contract.
#9
Posted by Evan Brunell, May 26, 2008 2:47 PM
Well, I always hanged my hopes on Lars Anderson, Jc, but I'm definitely gonna keep an eye on Boss Moanaroa. Can you imagine if he became a huge slugger? Who's the Boss!?
#10
Posted by Zach Hayes, May 26, 2008 2:52 PM
I fail to see any replacements for Manny unless there's some trade scenario we don't know about. Manny will break from this slump, hit 330/470/700 in July, and everyone will want to pick up the option again. It's worth it to keep him around for 2009.
#11
Posted by Sam, May 26, 2008 5:24 PM
Just looking at it as it stands right now ... in my opinion we need to keep Manny around ... I think he is still going to be worthy of the cleanup slot for 2-3 more years and without him our lineup is gonna be hurting for runs ... plus what would Boston be without Manny being Manny?
However, this is an issue we need to deal with at the end of the season ... not mid-season ... whatever we think now is premature until we can look at his entire body of work for this season ... if he bounces back then everyone will want him again as Zach says ... if he doesn't the decision will be even more difficult
Let's wait to judge this one
#12
Posted by Gerry, May 27, 2008 8:59 AM
We have time, and two 20M options, so patience works here. However, when Manny breaks out of this slump, and renders this discussion moot, I sincerely hope the Red Sox are flexible enough to work with Manny on an extended, performance base contract.
And please, no more talk about moving Youk to 3rd. We have one of the best hitting, best fielding, best attitude 1st basemen in all of baseball . . . precisely because he has finally been allowed some stability at the position. He is evolving into a perpetual all-star, is outhitting and outfielding his competition, and discussions about moving him around are counter-productive.
#13
Posted by Sean O, May 27, 2008 1:19 PM
Just remember that career-wise, Youkilis hits .150 OPS points higher in the first half. Last year he was 13th in OPS out of 20 1Bs, and in '06 he was 20th out of 24. And since he's already 29, he will be entering his decline phase right as he reaches free agency.
I love the guy, I'm just leery about his future and relying too much on him. Those numbers look much more palatable at third.
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