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Dustin Pedroia: When Do We Start Talking?
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Heading into the season, Red Sox fans had concerns. Not as many concerns as most teams, obviously, but no team is perfect. How would the back end of the rotation be sorted out (major depth, not a problem)? Will Curt Schilling ever return (likely yes)? Is the back end of the bullpen a joke (on some days)? Any chance Craig Hansen or Daniel Bard resurrect their careers (yes in a big way)? How will the centerfield situation be handled, and will it be handled properly (still confused)?
One question we were neglecting to ask: Will Dustin Pedroia have a second-year downfall?
The answer so far in 2008 is a resounding yes.
It didn’t appear that way in the beginning. Pedroia rushed through April producing very adequate numbers for a second baseman: .303/.346/.420 for a 109 OPS+. Very acceptable totals. May brought a challenge for the reigning rookie of the year: .260/.295/.374, with the fear beginning to slowly creep into the minds of Sox Nation, although nobody really discussed it out loud. In June, Pedroia, in just 22 PA, has one hit.
His total line on the season is .266/.313/.375, 83 OPS+, 16 BB/28 K (47/42 in 2007).
There isn’t any doubt Terry Francona is going to stick with Pedroia. One of his finest moves of 2007 was refusing to give up on the rookie 2B when he hit just .172/.308/.236 in April. That scenario is slightly different, though: 1) that production came from the 9-hole, a situation teams can survive especially with our lineup, and 2) the “still adjusting to big league pitching” excuse can be used. In this case, Pedroia is simply not getting it done for us with a .313 OBP out of the 2-hole.
Julio Lugo is constantly dragged through the mud by Red Sox fans, but at least his OBP is .355. For someone hitting in front of Ortiz and Ramirez, managing the lowest OBP on the team is very concerning.
Pedroia does make it up in some ways. For one, his defense has been positively Gold Glove-esque for the first two months of the season. I can remember countless outstanding diving plays at second base that saved leads and ballgames. For his small frame, the range Pedroia has at his position is remarkable. That alone brings his value up even with the below average numbers.
This doesn’t excuse the 0 for 4 last night against Seattle, or the 0 for 8 he put up vs. Tampa, or the fact he has two multi-hit games since May 21, or that his once remarkable .364/.418/.523 line last in April has now plummeted to .266/.313/.375. Does some adjustment need to be made?
The proper question that should be asked is: Will an adjustment be made? And the answer is probably no. Francona’s leash is always very long with established regulars moving them from permanent batting slots. It took him plenty of time to figure out Drew shouldn’t be our #5 hitter. Nobody is suggesting Alex Cora should receive tons of at-bats any time soon. But, would pushing Pedroia down in the order help?
J.D. Drew stands at .310/.413/.476 on the season. He seems like a player that fits the #2 mold.
Kevin Youkilis is at .300/.369/.511 on the year, and he’s hit #2 before, including the 2007 postseason.
What do the Fire Brander’s think: Should Pedroia be moved down in the order until his slump is broken?
This entry was posted
on Saturday, June 7th, 2008 at 9:03 am and is filed under Dustin Pedroia, Zach Hayes.
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13 Responses to “Dustin Pedroia: When Do We Start Talking?”
June 7th, 2008 at 9:44 am
I think he’ll be fine, keep in mind that he was one of the best hitters on the team last season and for the first month of this season. He’s just been in a terrible slump lately, the strikeouts are a little alarming since he’s never struck out that much at any level, but he’s always been such an extreme contact hitter that eventually those balls in play find holes. He’s pressing a little, but he’s a very confident hitter, since he’s been so cold now people better watch out once he gets hot again.
June 7th, 2008 at 11:19 am
Whew. That’s a tough one. I’ll go with… give him two more weeks, then see where he is. If Ortiz is still out for a while, the Sox may still need Youks and Drew hitting in the RBI spots.
June 7th, 2008 at 11:40 am
Is this the Gary from Chapel Hill of Bradford Files fame?
June 7th, 2008 at 11:41 am
There’s a very good reason why managers are slow to make moves in response to slumps: They have to show confidence in their team, and give their players a sense of stability. Especially in baseball, where a team spends six months in very close proximity.
If this were APBA or fantasy baseball, then you move players in, out, and around in order to get every conceivable edge. When you’re managing real people, you have to factor in the human equation.
So, to answer the actual question: No, I’m not ready to move Pedroia out of the 2 slot.
June 7th, 2008 at 1:39 pm
Knowing Francona Pedroia will not go anywhere and I think moving him down now would be a bad idea anyway with this poor lineup. Let the kid go through his struggles because we surely know what he can do after them.
June 7th, 2008 at 2:07 pm
I seem to remember him helping carry the club for more than the first month; and everyone amazed that no sophomore slump appeared. Well, it’s here, it is temporary, he will turn it around. He must be, however, mentally, emotionally and phsyically the most exhausted player on the club. He has played the most games, had the most at bats, played aggressively at 2nd, adjusted to pitching, etc. Give him a day or two off.
June 7th, 2008 at 9:36 pm
The fluke-ish Pedroia is finally experiencing what he was destined for: A career-long slump. He had a nice season last year, but this kid’s always been a replacement-level player at best. You have to give him props though, he overachieved with the best of them.
June 7th, 2008 at 9:48 pm
Yeah makes a LOT of sense, Frank, considering his career track record in college and the minors were horrible and last year came out of the blue.
Oh, wait…
June 8th, 2008 at 12:43 am
Frank, we are talking about Dustn Pedroia, historically good hitter, exceptional D, great spirit and grit, ROY last year, playing every game this year, Sophomore of the Year this year, perfect high energy one-two-three punch between Jacoby Ellsbury and David Ortiz. Who the heck are you talking about?
June 8th, 2008 at 6:03 pm
“Historically good?”
Wow. Just wow. I guess a career .303 minor league hitter translates to superstardom in the Boston area. But that’s to be expected… I mean, no one’s ever hit over .300 in the minor leagues.
“Exceptional” defense?
The kid is 5′8 and he HAS TO dive for every ball. It’s out of necessity. He is among the worst in range in the AL let alone MLB. But he’s “solid” with the glove I’ll admit that. Exceptional is too much though.
This is a kid who’s an average hitter who will hit for little to no power away from Fenway… average defense…. and he’ll steal 10-12 bases for you.
Pedroia is a fluke…. No matter how much ESPN wants to suck him off. An average player who won ROY b/c of where he plays, not how he plays. Same reason he’s inexplicably being voted as an All-Star.
Hall of fame here we come.
June 9th, 2008 at 1:04 am
This is going to be a theme: Frank, you are a special sort of Troll.
June 9th, 2008 at 6:50 pm
Just going by what I see. If I’m off on any of my numbers, please let me know.
If he proves me wrong and is still around 3 years from now, more power to him.
June 14th, 2008 at 1:35 am
[…] Hayes over at Fire Brand posed the question a week ago: will Dustin Pedroia have a second-year downfall? He argues that so far the answer is […]
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