June 24, 2008
Schilling's Legacy
When Curt Schilling broke from Thanksgiving dinner in 2003 with Red Sox General Manager Theo Epstein, I doubt even he knew what the next five years would hold for him. And if the last four seasons in a Red Sox uniform are his last in a baseball uniform, no one can deny that the big fella left a pretty indelible legacy on a city rich with legacy.
"I want to be a part of bringing the first World Series in modern history to Boston," Schilling said. "And hopefully more than one over the next four years." - Curt Schilling 11/2003
Little did Schilling know that his destiny was to achieve just that...or maybe Curt, as he often came across thinking he was, actually is smarter than the rest of us.
Curt Schilling's legacy in Boston began the day he logged onto Sons of Sam Horn and started talking directly to Red Sox fans as gehrig38 and only grew through Octobers and injuries and interviews and most importantly Championships.
Whether or not Curt Schilling is "Hall of Fame" worthy is a question that has already and will continue to receive plenty of debate. One thing that I think the last five years in Boston have done was cement the hat that Curt would wear in to Cooperstown should he ever be elected. Despite 8 1/2 seasons in Philadelphia and a championship in 3 1/2 seasons in Arizona, the last few years have cemented Schilling's connection with what is likely to be the last major league uniform that he wears.
Of course, the obituary on Schilling's career may be a little premature given today's news of the "positive" findings after surgery on his pitching arm revealed less Rotator Cuff damage than may have been anticipated. With a four to six month recovery period, a late season run next year would be possible should Schilling want to pursue a return to baseball.
Given his recent reflective post his blog however, you have to wonder whether he has finally come to peace with his retirement from playing the game he loves.
In his years in Boston, he has done everything that you could possibly ask of an athlete in this day and age both on the field and off. Instead of getting into whether you agree or disagree with his points of view, or you think he's a self-grandizing media hog, both of which are personal reactions to Curt's public persona, let's focus on the on field dedication to succeed and rings that are proof of that success. Let's also look at his off-field charitable work with ALS and the SHADE Foundation. Finally let's consider that like him or not, he's given unparalleled access of himself and his perspective on the game through the media, radio, forums, blogs, etc. He was nothing if not ever present.
On the field in a Red Sox uniform we'll remember October 2004 before anything else. He was "the warrior". But I will also remember his efforts to close games in 2005 after coming back from injury, filling a spot that wasn't meant for him, but for which he was the only (even if flawed) answer. I'll remember his near no-hitter against Oakland. I'll remember his tremendous ability to compete in any situation that presented him.
The case for Schill's Hall of Fame worthiness is already well documented. Instead of "re-analyze", I thought I would point to two cases that I think make the best argument's for Schilling's eventual spot in Cooperstown. Obviously the post season success is a check mark far in his favor, 11-2 with a 2.23 ERA over 19 post-season starts with the 2004 drama (and bloody sock) already etched in the Hall of Fame awaiting his arrival. But it is the overall body of work that will most likely trip up Schilling's chances at the Hall. Was he one of the best ever? Or the best of his era? Or was he just very good bordering on great?
ESPN's Jayson Stark makes a pretty compelling case as he debates the "very intelligent" ESPN Fan Nation on this very topic. Looking at all right handed starters between 1992 and 2007, Stark unearthed the following;
"Schilling not only led all of them in complete games (with 83), but only one other righthander in the whole sport (Greg Maddux) was closer than 25 CGs away. Just Pedro Martinez had a better strikeout ratio than Schilling (8.59 K/9). Only Pedro and Roger Clemens had more strikeouts than Schilling (3,116), period. Just Pedro and Maddux had a better WHIP than Schilling (1.137). And nobody had a better strikeout-walk ratio. In fact, Schilling's K/BB ratio (4.38 whiffs for every walk) ranks No. 1 among ALL PITCHERS IN THE MODERN ERA." - Jayson Stark, ESPN
Pretty compelling regular season stuff right?
Another way to measure "Hall of Fame" worthiness is through the work of Bill James on the very topic as he created a variety of standards to aid in the prediction of a player's selection.
Having read a variety of explanations of the numbers that you see at the bottom of each player's Baseball Reference page, I thought the folks at Odds and Sods did as succinct a job as I could at translating;
"According the Baseball Reference tests, which are slightly modified from the Bill James versions, Schilling scores a 42 on the black ink test (how often you lead the league in a category). The average HOF score is 40. He scores a 205 in the gray ink test (how often you were in the top 10), The average HOF score is 185. In the HOF standards test, Schilling scores a 46, slightly below the HOF average of 50. In the HOF monitor, which tests how likely a player is to make the HOF, Schilling scores a 171 when the average HOF score is 100." - Odds & Sods
Let's quickly compare those numbers to another post season dominant pitcher looking at the end of a remarkable career in Atlanta; John Smoltz. Smoltz, whom I believe more people would respond favorably when asked about his "worthiness" of the Hall than Curt, scores a 34 to Curt's 42 on the black ink test, 193 to Curt's 205 in grey ink, matches Schilling's 46 in the HOF standards test and falls 167 to Schill's 171 in HOF Monitor.
You may often hear that Schilling will be a modern day "Bert Blyleven" whose candidacy's defense is an annual rite of budding sabrematricians. But look at Blyleven's Hall of Fame standards and you will see someone rightfully rewarded for longevity and consistency, but penalized for not being one of the best of his era. Looking at similar stats for Schilling, I don't think the comparison stands. I'll take Curt's profile to the Hall everyday.
In fact, if you want to find a pitcher that looks alot more like Blyleven than Schilling, look no further than Mike Mussina. Sure Moose has 44 more career wins (260 and counting to 216) than Schilling, but I'll let you answer whose career would be better served etched for generations to come to reflect on.
At the end of the day (if this is the end of the day or not), Curt Schilling's legacy both in Boston and in baseball at large is worthy of all the accolades that are bestowed upon the game's and the franchise's best.
But don't just stand there, give us your take on Curt Schilling! Vote in the poll to the right and answer whether or not you think Schilling merits Hall status. Leave your comments on Curt Schilling's legacy in this thread and we'll publish the best on Friday. Lastly, for the very brave...call into (360) 450-MVN3 or (360) 450-6863 and leave your comments to be played on this Thursday's podcast with Paul and myself. As a special treat we'll have Art Martone, Providence Journal's Sports Editor and author of some delicious Baseball links over at the ProJo's Sox Blog to give us his take on Schilling's legacy.
Discussion
7 Comments on "Schilling's Legacy"
#1
Posted by Shane, June 24, 2008 12:01 AM
I was pretty sure he should go before I read Stark's piece, and now I'm sure. I especially like the Smoltz comparison. Simply put Curt Shilling was a great pitcher. I'm not saying he is the best pitcher of his time (Pedro, err... Roger?) but he was consistently one of the better in his time.
#2
Posted by Zach Hayes, June 24, 2008 12:54 AM
It's borderline, definitely. But the postseason accolades push Schilling over the hump and into the Hall. He was a true warrior on the baseball field, and even though injuries curtailed what could have been a HOF lock career, he deserves the honor.
#3
Posted by Nate, June 24, 2008 9:10 AM
I read Stark's debate yesterday, and he convinced me. Before, I was a Schilling fan, but wasn't sure if he had "Hall Numbers." But the fact is, players need to be judged in comparison to their contemporary colleagues, and even (especially?) Yankees fans have to acknowledge his dominance in his prime.
Looking at any stat other than wins, which seems to me to have been influenced tremendously (some actual research on this would be particularly interesting) by the sub-par offense of his pre-Sox teams, Curt should go.
#4
Posted by Steve, June 24, 2008 11:52 AM
(yankee bias aside)..
ABSOLUTELY NOT...
Tremendous big game pitcher, but there isnt enough on his resume.
#5
Posted by Evan Brunell, June 24, 2008 2:03 PM
Agreed. Dude's a Hall of Famer, his contributions and legacy say nothing otherwise.
#6
Posted by Jeff Kallman, June 24, 2008 3:08 PM
Of course he's a Hall of Famer. And, by the way, his big-game pitching isn't limited to the postseason. We forget big games also (usually) mean pitching in the heat of a pennant race when your team is in the hunt, especially against the one team your team needs most to beat to stay in it or win the pennant or division. I looked it up. The biggest of the big. The biggest pennant-race games Curt Schilling ever pitched in his life. And here's his record in those games: 5-4, two no-decisions, and a 3.39 ERA.
Guess what---it's a better heat-of-the-race record than a lot of guys in the Hall of Fame. (Don Drysdale, anyone?)
1993---Montreal is the team the Phillies most need to beat; this will actually be the only serious pennant race in which Schilling's Phillies will partake.
10 August 1993: Schilling threw a complete game win against the Expos, beating them 5-2, striking out seven, and surrendering the runs on an infield groundout (driving in Moises Alou, who opened the inning with a triple) in the second and a sacrifice fly (Alou) in the ninth. The club never competed seriously again until after Schilling was gone.
2000---Schilling was moved to the Diamondbacks; by the time Schilling got a whack at the Giants the NL West was the Giants' to lose and Arizona, in second place, was eleven games back. In September, Schilling went against the Dodgers, who were also trying to charge the Giants. The Snakes may or may not still have had a chance to stay in it; Schilling was pitching well until pinch hitter Dave Hansen unloaded a three-run bomb in the seventh; Byung-Hyun Kim, then a setup/middle reliever, took over in the eighth and got the win. Schilling's record thus far: 1-1/3.37 ERA.
2001---The Snakes went all the way to the ring, but they had to take the AL West first and both the Giants and the Dodgers are the teams they most need to beat. Schilling faced the Giants once and the Dodgers twice before the Snakes clinched the division. How did he do?
5 September 2001, in San Francisco: Schilling beats Russ Ortiz, striking out twelve, surrendering a single run in the second and allowing nothing the rest of his eight innings. (Kim took the ninth, surrendered one run but closed it out.) It thickened the Diamondbacks' lead to two and a half games.
23 September 2001, at Los Angeles: The lead is still two games (the Giants are in second place) when Schilling goes against Terry Adams and beats him, 6-1, with thirteen strikeouts; the Dodgers' lone run comes when Bruce Aven (in the game in left after Gary Sheffield got thrown out of the game arguing at the plate in the first) hit one out.
28 September 2001: The Diamondbacks are still clinging to a two-game lead when Schilling faces Adams again. Schilling has a rough fourth inning (three runs) and pitched behind a run until the Snakes tied it in the eighth. (Mark Grace, Schilling's pinch-hitter, drove in the tying run; the Snakes won in extra innings.) Except for that fourth, Schilling had pitched shutout ball throughout his appearance.
The record thus far: 3-1/1 no-decision (you can argue that he pitched, generally, well enough to win)/2.61
2002---The Diamondbacks win the West again; the Giants are pretty much their major competition (the Snakes again win it by two games; the Giants end up winning the wild card) down the stretch of the stretch as the Dodgers tumble a bit (they finish six games out). Schilling gets to face the Giants twice down the stretch:
31 August 2002: Trying to win his 22nd game, Schilling loses to Kirk Rueter. He gives up two in the first but pitches shutout baseball until the seventh, when David Bell greets him with a leadoff bomb.
5 September 2002: This time, he wins his 22nd game, beating Jason Schmidt the hard way (three earned runs in seven innings).
The record now: 4-2/1 no decision/3.23.
We won't look at 2003 because the Diamondbacks finished sixteen and a half out of the race (this was the year injuries did in Randy Johnson, Schilling, and other Snakes).
2004 ("I guess I hate the Yankees now")---Schilling becomes maybe the most famous Red Sox trade acquisition of the decade. The AL East is a two-team race; the Yankees are the team the Red Sox need most to beat to take the division (they'll settle for the wild card---and make history, of course), and Schilling---oddly enough---got only one crack at the Empire Emeritus down the stretch . . .
26 September 2004, at Fenway Park: The Red Sox are trying a last stand to tie or take the division, and they send Schilling out to face Kevin Brown, and it's no contest. Schilling keeps the Yankees to a pair of earned runs in seven innings, and the Red Sox end up routing them, 11-4.
2006---Schilling loses the entire 2005 season after pitching for immortality on a weak (and notorious) ankle in the 2004 postseason (you tell me how many guys would sacrifice the rest of their careers, practically, to win The Big Ones right now); in 2006, it's once again a two-team AL East race and, with the Red Sox within reach of the Yankees with plenty of time to go early down the stretch, Schilling gets to square off with Mike Mussina at the Fens.
This time, the Yankees got three earned in seven innings off Schilling but he kept them behind, 5-3; the bullpen burped it into an extra-inning-sending tie and Craig Hansen, spelling Jonathan Papelbon in the tenth, surrendered three on a pair of bombs, allowing The Mariano a cushion on which to shut out the Sox in the bottom for the game. It was Schilling's only chance to beat the team his team most needed to beat down the stretch that season, a season in which he wavered between the rotation and the bullpen trying to find his rhythm again.
2007---Schilling by now isn't what he used to be . . . or is he? He meets the Yankees twice down the stretch . . .
30 August 2007: He faces Chien-Ming Wang and loses a heartbreaker (he surrendered only two earned runs in seven innings, both leadoff bombs by Robinson Cano in the third and the fifth).
16 September 2007: This was probably the worst game of the study---four earned in seven innings, maybe the only game in which he didn't really pitch well enough to win or draw.
The overall record of Curt Schilling down the stretch, against the one team his team most needed to beat: 5-4/two no-decisions/3.39.
And I still can't believe one of Jayson Stark's critics actually didn't even know Schilling went 3-0 in the 2007 postseason, never mind that there's no way the Red Sox win two Series in four seasons without him.
Allow Schilling the wins in his two no-decisions and his heat-of-the-race pitching against his most-needed opponents would be 7-4/3.39. That's a terrific record for a big-game pitcher in Schilling's time and place and pitching conditions. Marry that to Schilling's postseason pitching record (he's 11-2/2.23 . . . better than John Smoltz; better than Tom Glavine; better than Greg Maddux; put together, his stretch/most needed record and his postseason record would be 18-9/2.81---you can win a Cy Young Award with a regular season record like that these days) and try to tell yourself this guy wasn't a big-game pitcher in just about all senses of the term, not just the postseason ones.
You don't have to point to The Sock to nail the point.
#7
Posted by Pizza Cutter, June 24, 2008 4:39 PM
Statistically, he's got a pretty good case (although not a slam-dunk one). Culturally, he's in. And frankly, I think the HOF should be a cultural institution.
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