August 5, 2008
8/5: Will the real Josh Beckett please stand up?
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Boston Red Sox (64-49) @ Kansas City Royals (53-60)
Josh Beckett (9-8, 4.15) @ Brian Bannister (7-9, 5.33) 8:10 PM EDT | Kauffman Stadium (Kansas City, Missouri) TV: NESN RADIO: WRKO 680, SBN 1150 |
GAME NOTES:
May I have your attention please?
May I have your attention please?
Will the real Josh Beckett please stand up?
I repeat, will the real Josh Beckett please stand up?
We're gonna have a problem here...
[youtube]MVf0LQ2J1RI[/youtube]
Discussion
72 Comments on "8/5: Will the real Josh Beckett please stand up?"
#2
Posted by Tim Daloisio, August 5, 2008 4:26 PM
1. J.D. Drew, RF
2. Dustin Pedroia, 2B
3. David Ortiz, DH
4. Kevin Youkilis, 1B
5. Mike Lowell, 3B
6. Jason Bay, LF
7. Jed Lowrie, SS
8. Jason Varitek, C
9. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF
--Josh Beckett, SP
#4
Posted by Tessie's Dad, August 5, 2008 4:48 PM
If Beckett loses today, can we have a special pre-game ceremony before his next start in which we formally strip him of his "Ace" status and bestow it instead on Jon Lester?
#5
Posted by Bay's Dad, August 5, 2008 4:59 PM
Someone get Sean O some Prozac! Looks like Debbie Downer is on one of their manic episodes again.
#6
Posted by Bob, August 5, 2008 5:12 PM
The real good news today is that Papi is in the lineup after feeling a "click" in his wrist in his last at-bat last night
#8
Posted by Sean O, August 5, 2008 6:12 PM
Bay's Dad needs a hug :(
Every time I hear that Lugo is progressing I shudder, because i'm guessing it means Lowrie returns to the bench. The best situation we could hope for is splitting ABs with wifebeater, but since they both have the same type splits it's not going to help any.
This may be totally premature considering Lowrie was within .001 in OPS from the left and right side in pawtucket, but he's hitting an incredible .364 .417 .576 .992 against lefties but only .254 .314 .322 .636 against righties. A .360 OPS shift, to me, indicates that maybe a switch hitter shouldn't be switch hitting.
It'll be something to watch for as the year continues, and into next season.
#9
Posted by Bay's Dad, August 5, 2008 6:46 PM
Sean O, I agree with many of the points you make, but it seems like you're just grumpy and frustrated about everything.
#11
Posted by Bob, August 5, 2008 7:34 PM
sample sizes Sean, sample sizes. That said from the blind eye he does seem to have more power from the right side. His one homer was right handed and he actually hit a very low pitch. His minor league splits (where he has more at bats) show that he's pretty even so I'll trust those.
If the Red Sox are smart, they'll bench Lugo if/when he returns. He does exactly one thing better than Lowrie, run, and coming back from a torn quad means he probably won't do much of that either, we need to give Lowrie as many at-bats as possible and figure out if he's the SS of the future (fingers crossed).
#12
Posted by Tessie's Dad, August 5, 2008 8:02 PM
Lugo's not coming back, is he? I thought he would be in an unmarked grave in Tunisia by now.
#13
Posted by Evan Brunell, August 5, 2008 8:06 PM
Bay's Dad:
Everyone has their own way of rooting for the Sox. FWIW, he was right about Crisp (although now he loves his defense) and Lugo. He was wrong about Lowell, though, but won't admit it.
#14
Posted by Bay's Dad, August 5, 2008 8:11 PM
He didn't want Beckett either? Looks like he can't admit when the players he doesn't like do well (I'll take the World Series) but when Beckett or Lowell go through a rough patch he's all over them. He probably didn't like Drew either I'm guessing but I don't see him talking about Drew or Lowell.
#15
Posted by Bay's Dad, August 5, 2008 8:16 PM
There's nothing wrong with being critical or the GM, but Sean O seems like he's so ornery and stubborn that he'd actually root against Red Sox players he doesn't like so that he can be right about the decisions Epstein makes.
You can tell he's enjoying that Beckett isn't pitching like his usual self.
#16
Posted by Bob, August 5, 2008 8:21 PM
good start, hopefully they can score after the 1st unlike yesterday
#18
Posted by Sean O, August 5, 2008 8:27 PM
Once again, this is his usual self. Beckett had one good year in the AL, and is back to being mediocre.
Also, how was I wrong about Lowell? I said he'd collapse around July, like he always does, and he obliged. He's become the new Lugo, not just making outs, but destroying any chance at scoring for the team. He needs to be DFA'd.
This is why I didn't want Bay, because Theo will just sign him to a 6 year contract for $110m for his decline. Lowell is proof-positive that you never want to do that, especially coming off of a career year.
I'm sick of overpaying for mediocrity. Overpay for excellence, but not average/below average performance (Lowell).
#20
Posted by Bay's Dad, August 5, 2008 8:40 PM
That's the Sean O we all know. Simply INCAPABLE of admitting when he's wrong.
This is the second worst ERA that Beckett's ever posted in his 7 years. I'm sure that run was his fault too, right?
And the Red Sox should DFA Lowell? Yeah, that would really help the team to have them just eat $12 million to have Alex Cora play shortstop and Jed Lowrie play third. You really know what you're talking about.
And why don't you want Bay? Because he's cheap? Good thinking.
I'm curious Sean O. If you had full control of the team, what would they look like?
#21
Posted by Bay's Dad, August 5, 2008 8:45 PM
The longer the Yankees go without admitting what's wrong with Joba, the happier I get. This is what happens when you sign a player who used to weight almost 300 pounds in college and fell all the way to the back of the sandwich picks because of his history of injury.
Usually I don't celebrate the pain and suffering of others, but when it comes to someone like Joba, who could care less that he's putting others in extreme physical danger by repeatedly throwing at their heads, I could care less.
#22
Posted by Bay's Dad, August 5, 2008 8:50 PM
Web gem. Yet another reason to like Lowrie. If he keeps this up, even Francona who's as stubborn as they come, might consider benching Lugo when he returns.
#23
Posted by Bob, August 5, 2008 8:56 PM
Would be nice if we scored again soon. As for Joba, yeah Karma is a bitch.
#24
Posted by Colin, August 5, 2008 9:00 PM
I hope the hit hasn't been taken away from Dustin. I mean his efforts last night were more than commendable but I hope he isn't tired.
#26
Posted by Bob, August 5, 2008 9:09 PM
Good job Beckett now please for the love of God score some runs off the guy with a 5+ era, it shouldn't be too hard.
#28
Posted by Sean O, August 5, 2008 9:13 PM
Well, if we DFA Lowell, we 1). open up a spot where a good player can play, and 2). guarantee that Lowrie has some place to play, 3). lets us enter the Teix sweepstakes in the offseason. I don't like Bay because he's only barely above average, and once he declines (or if the switch to the AL makes him average), theo will sign him long-term for whatever he asks.
Our front office showed they don't care about performance by signing Lowell last season, and by not getting Santana for Ellsbury. They'd rather keep bad popular players regardless of the numbers.
If I could predict Coco and Lowell's career path, then surely the front office with millions invested in scouting and statistical analysis could piece it together.
#32
Posted by Bob, August 5, 2008 9:19 PM
Stick a fork in him he's done. What the Red Sox should do is give Tex a pile of money in the offseason and then trade Youk as part of a 3-teamer for young pitching that can be swung to Texas for Max Ramirez or Teagarden.
#33
Posted by The Roc, August 5, 2008 9:21 PM
Sean O, we open up a spot for who? Who's going to play 3rd the rest of the year?
And Bay's only barely above average now? He posted back-to-back 100 run, 30 home run, 100 RBI seasons for one of the worst offensive teams in baseball in one of the worst offensive parks in the NL. And at $7.5 million, he's a steal for the production he provides. If you think Bay was a bad move you're going to have to provide a better argument than "Bay's barely above mediocre because I said so!" If you think he's barely above mediocre then provide some kind of argument for it.
And you think the Red Sox should have traded for Santana now? How would the Sox be any better off without Lester, Lowrie, Ellsbury and Masterson?
Thank God you're not the GM.
#34
Posted by Tessie's Dad, August 5, 2008 9:23 PM
Is it just me, or is it getting a little hostile in here?
#35
Posted by Bob, August 5, 2008 9:23 PM
Let's leave Sean alone, everyone is entitled to their own opinion and he makes cogent points sometimes.
#39
Posted by Mostly Running., August 5, 2008 9:31 PM
It's hard for him to steal when he's never on base.
#43
Posted by Bob, August 5, 2008 9:36 PM
wow Horacio Ramirez, haven't heard much from him since he was pitching here in atlanta, did Seattle release him?
#47
Posted by Bob, August 5, 2008 10:01 PM
Wait did Tek and Ellsbury both just get hits?? Back-to-back?? Is this the apocalypse?
#49
Posted by Evan Brunell, August 5, 2008 10:17 PM
1) Bay is statistically NOT mediocre. He's produced in the (short) time he's been in the AL. He produced in the NL (Yeah, AAAA and all that stuff, whatever). He's signed for cheap through age 30. He was a good acquisition, period.
2) "Our front office showed they don’t care about performance by signing Lowell last season."
Well, considering that the Red Sox fans and front office were pleased with the production Lowell gave for two years, culminating in a World Series MVP and a dearth of better options on the market, it was pretty easy to see why Lowell was in demand -- not just from Boston, but from other teams. We have no one easily ready to replace him. Second half decline or not, he provides enough character and defense to offset that. Period. Theo factored in the second half slump, don't sell him short. The other teams were willing to throw more money. And no, the other teams aren't incompetent either.
3) Beckett is still having a good year. Look past the ERA. Yeah, he's giving up more homers than usual -- last year was the aberration in that, but his K/BB and all that is pretty darned good.
4) I fail to see why Lowrie is deserving of being handed the 3B job without any experience there whatsoever and in his first appearance in the big leagues but Jacoby can't play center after an excellent fall run last year. He's slumped these last two months. Big freaking deal. Sample size.
Some moves work out, some don't, and some you are forced to do because there are no better alternatives. And I very much doubt the Red Sox feel Youk can hold up an entire season at third. He has a bad body, and I think his decline will be short and quick. He's got three more years of production left in him. That's JMO -- I'd love if Youk proved me wrong.
I don't want to get TOO involved into this debate, but I use Sean O's opinions as devil's advocate. I don't automatically write them off, but I do take what he says, take the message from it, and tone the rest down. He has valid points about Bay, and they SHOULD be recognized, but he's way off the mark in calling it a horrible trade. Etc, etc.
Back to more important stuff: We're winning.
#52
Posted by Bob, August 5, 2008 10:22 PM
JED LOWRIE, I like having both Pedroia and his clone in the same lineup
#54
Posted by Bob, August 5, 2008 10:41 PM
The fact that Rupe has an era under 4 is even more surprising...
Kinda a quick hook for Beckett with a 7-run lead and only 90 pitches thrown. hope he isn't hurt
#55
Posted by Colin, August 5, 2008 10:42 PM
Regarding the hurt comment:
I would be more worried if it was Lester.
#56
Posted by Colin, August 5, 2008 10:42 PM
Not a good way to start off Timlin. Keep it at one run.
#57
Posted by Bay's Dad, August 5, 2008 10:43 PM
Thanks for providing some sense Evan. I don't think $12 million is really overpaying all that much for Lowell considering he plays GG defense to go along with this 20 HR, 80 RBI bat. If we're overpaying so much for him, then why'd he have to pass up more money elsewhere to play for us?
#58
Posted by Bob, August 5, 2008 10:44 PM
Beckett is just as important as Lester if only for eating innings. If he's injured it's only going to mean more bullpen whihch is never a good thing
#59
Posted by Bay's Dad, August 5, 2008 10:48 PM
Evan, what was his valid point about Bay? His criticisms were that Bay's barely better than mediocre (he has a career 131 OPS+), that he's too cheap (what a shame) and that he can't play in the AL (where he was hitting .313/.450/.625 before his 3-4 performance tonight). Looks like he's grasping at straws to me.
#60
Posted by Bay's Dad, August 5, 2008 10:51 PM
You're right Bob, even when Beckett isn't completely on, he still goes deep into games. He's averaged 6.2 innings a start this year.
#61
Posted by Colin, August 5, 2008 10:54 PM
Notice how Texas's score is equivalent to ours with the whole 8-2 thing?
I love baseball and its quirky coincidences.
#63
Posted by Colin, August 5, 2008 11:09 PM
Are you shitting me Texas? CJ Wilson get the fuck out of here.
#64
Posted by Colin, August 5, 2008 11:14 PM
Well at least we win. Bay continues to win me over with his base hitting and Dustin...well as the July review said:
Drop it like it's hot motherfucker.
#65
Posted by Colin, August 5, 2008 11:28 PM
In case anyone cares, the Farns is pitching in the 6-6 nailbiter a/g the White Sox. Let's see how the fucker does.
#67
Posted by Sean O, August 6, 2008 1:09 AM
131 OPS+ means relative to the average major leaguer, rather than LF. He's an above average LF, but when you factor in the AL switch, there's a really good chance we're looking at an .850 OPS player with a bad glove. And one we'll have to pay $100-120m to keep around.
If I actually thought the front office bothers to analyze players before they throw tens of millions of dollars at them, then I'd feel differently.
Evan, you know the difference between the Lowrie and Ellsbury situation. Ellsbury was at the absolute zenith of his trade power this offseason, as was Buchholz. Lowrie meanwhile was at most a throw-in piece for most teams, ala Moss. Like with everything else, Ellsbury held the greatest delta between actual and perceived value, and so he should have been traded.
Lowell's MORP projections for this and the next 2 years are 12m, 8.9m, 5.25m, and that was expecting a .277 .341 .446 line, or exactly where he is now. Considering that August is historically his worst month by far (80 tOPS+), and he's injured (increasing frailty won't help out the MORP), we're staring directly into a .260/.320/.420 line or about $2m of value. He doesn't do enough things well to justify even a slight loss of AVG (he doesn't walk) or ISO.
As for Beckett, apart from wishing we still had Hanley, I just plain don't like the guy. Say what you will about Manny being totally braindead, but he worked his ass off in the offseason. Meathead's 06 involved him disinterestedly chucking 96 mph fastballs down the middle of the plate. Arrogance + 5.04 ERA is not a good combination.
#68
Posted by Bay's Dad, August 6, 2008 5:24 AM
You're right Sean O. We should just put you in charge. We'd be without the '07 World Series, but at least we'd have Hanley Ramirez and Johan Santana as we sat 5 back of the Wild Card without Lester, Ellsbury, Masterson or Lowrie.
Come on Sean O, you took hours to come up with a comeback and that's the best you could do? What does Lowell do other than his offense? Gee, only play Gold Glove defense at third. How does Bay compare to other LF? Only 7th out of 19 in OPS while hitting mostly in one of the worst offensive parks in baseball. And you don't like Beckett now because he's arrogant? I'll take the arrogance, ALONG with all the World Series titles thank you very much.
I actually though you were smarter before I started challenging you on stuff. Then you said you'd rather Epstein never made the Beckett/Lowell deal and you'd rather he dealt Lester/Ellsbury/Masterson/Lowrie for Santana and that we should DFA Lowell even though we wouldn't have Lowrie to play 3rd because you would have dealt him for Santana. And the more you open the mouth, the clearer it is that you actually have no idea what you're talking about and you only complain about Epstein because it pains you that you're wrong so often.
#69
Posted by Evan Brunell, August 6, 2008 8:01 AM
Bay: Yes, there's a good chance, but a) a bad glove relative to the league, sure. Relative to Manny? Ha! 2) .850 OPS is no slouch... 3) He's cost-controlled through next season, that has value, whether or not we resign him. And if we do, he won't break the bank. Probaby won't even get Drew money.
Ellsbury: That's YOUR opinion. Perhaps the prevailing opinion was that a) the return for losing Ellsbury and Buchholz/Lester wasn't enough. No one's sold on Santana for that money through the next seven years. B) What if this ISN'T his peak? Unlike us fans, executives have to be more concerned about the future, and you can't say with any definitiveness that Ellsbury is done -- I'll take baseball executives over you.
Lowell: Great. Who would have replaced him? No one. No one could replace Lowell -- offensively, defensively, etc. etc. Signing Lowell was the smart move that allowed us to compete this year.
Beckett: Blame Varitek for putting too many fastballs down -- he admitted himself he got too in love with Beckett's fastball. On the other hand, it's hurting him with Buchholz because he's not allowing Clay to establish his fastball.
As for the AL/NL switch... stop harping on the 5.04 ERA switch. It was an adjustment year. Get over it. As for Bay, it seems as if the adjustment year is a crapshoot for hitters... Renteria/Drew as opposed to Bay/Nady/Lowell, etc...
This is what I mean by taking SOME stock in what you say but not completely. You're right about Lowell, but wrong that we shouldn't have moved him. And the DFA comment is laughable.
#70
Posted by Sean O, August 6, 2008 8:59 AM
I don't have time to respond to everything, but I do have to comment on Bay's Dad's hysterical comment: "you took hours to come up with a comeback". Wow. Dude, I like Fire Brand, but it's nobody's job but Evan's. I was unaware I had to sit here all night, especially coming from someone who appears to have just arrived.
For the Santana deal, the Twins offered him to the Red Sox last-minute for either/or, since they ended up taking nothing of value from the Mets. It was no longer a Lester/Ellsbury/Masterson/Lowrie, but either of the first two. I have no doubts that the front office knows more than I do, and have access to more information, but surely they had to see what Ellsbury was going to be this year right? Plus we had Coco capable of playing the best outfield in the league.
You're telling me we couldn't have possibly come up with any other solution at third? What about Youk at third and Casey at first, with Carter and Lowrie taking some ABs? I agree that the FO may have issue with Youk long term at third, but Tex would get a whole lot more likely with $12m off the books.
Or, remember that I was repeatedly ripped for wanting Miguel Cabrera, who is hitting .293 .354 .505 at the 2nd worst hitter's park, and in the AL, and is 25, and can play some (bad, of course) LF if needed.
Bottom line: it is always better to deal with a temporarily sub-optimal situation for a season rather than overpay by 2-3x for performance. Paying someone like Lowell, who has no chance of ever coming close to his '07 numbers, is idiotic.
#71
Posted by Sam, August 7, 2008 1:31 AM
I, being someone who tends to split the extreme ends of a debate, have one thing to say to all of you ... it's all opinion ... Sean O thinks the FO should do things one way ... Evan thinks another way ... everyone has there opinions ... respect em guys ... and don't act like your opinion is law ... it's not
#72
Posted by Sam, August 7, 2008 1:34 AM
Oh and Bays Dad ... take it easy man ... you probably shouldn't even start with Sean O ... he's not gonna change his attitude because you don't like it ... trust me lol
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