August 8, 2008
Can Ellsbury turn on the jets?
Last season at this time, Red Sox fans had only experienced a quick preview of what had seemingly been deemed the long term occupant of center field at Fenway Park. Jacoby Ellsbury spent the first week in July of last season introducing himself to Red Sox Nation and offering just enough to leave us intrigued by his raw speed and athletic ability.
Come September and into October, it became apparent that Ellsbury could be a staple in center field and at the top of the order for years to come. Ellsbury would end his first abbreviated season in Boston with a .353 average, .903 OPS, and a World Series title.
Red Sox fans were so confident in what they had in Jacoby Ellsbury throughout the off-season, that they deemed Johan Santana not worth his (and others) loss and his primary competition in center, Coco Crisp, expendable. Could you blame us? We had seen the second coming of Johnny Damon and we liked it.
After a solid start to the 2008 season that saw him hitting near .300 with a surprising displays of pop with the bat and flat out dominance on the basepaths stealing his first 16 bags before being caught, Ellsbury hit the first real slump of his career around the end of May. In the 57 games he has played in since May 25th, over 230 at bats, Ellsbury's line looked, well, Coco-like; .235/.269/.304.
That slump saw him drop out of the top spot in the lineup and had fans wondering if Coco Crisp might actually be commanding a little more playing time once the corners were solidified with Jason Bay and J.D. Drew.
It was clear that Jacoby Ellsbury was struggling at the plate in almost every way possible; lost, overmatched, and searching for his swing. Dave Cameron at Fan Graphs would go so far as to call him "ice cold".
After a phenemonal debut last year, expectations for Ellsbury were high, but he’s run into the second year wall. His lack of power has pitchers challenging him in the strike zone, and while he’s making contact, he’s not doing anything with the ball when he puts the bat on it. As the slump has intensified, he’s tried to hack his way out of it, and that hasn’t worked much better. He’ll bounce back, but he’s got some adjustments to make, and right now, Boston can’t afford to have him making outs at the top of the line-up while they try to chase down the Rays.
As noted in the comments by Scrappy, clearly Ellsbury's performance last year and lack there of recently can be traced back down to a near .90 point negative variance on BABIP year over year. But Cameron's assessment is right on, Ellsbury has looked overmatched, not unlucky. Cameron also mentions "adjustments" and he's not the only one that keyed in on swing adjustments as a potential culprit here.
What could cause such a dynamic young player to look so pedestrian? Jim Rice gives us a pretty interesting nugget in his blog, Ask 14.
Jacoby Ellsbury has made some changes that should help his approach at the plate. I saw him at batting practice the other day at batting practice and with each pitch, Jacoby would drop his hands so that he was starting his swing with hands below waist. Hitters need to keep their hands up so that they don’t get underneath the baseball. I think he looked at some video that has corrected this flaw and now you will see a different Jacoby! - Jim Rice, Ask 14
While Rice doesn't give exact dates, "the other day" would likely have been at Fenway Park. In the two games Jacoby has played since the team left home to travel to Kansas City, he's posted strong performances going two for four, then three for four with key three run jack to put the game out of reach.
Given Jim Rice's assessment of Jacoby's swing corrections and the subsequent five for eight at the plate, are you confident that Jacoby has turned the corner? Can he be the impact player he was down the stretch for the Red Sox last season? Are you more or less excited about his ability now than you were coming into the season?
Discussion
15 Comments on "Can Ellsbury turn on the jets?"
#1
Posted by Bob, August 8, 2008 12:02 AM
I don't think he'll ever hit 20 Hr, he just doesn't have that much power (although the homer he hit wednesday was a long one). But in his prime he should be a .300 hitter. I would like to see him learn a little bit more plate discipline also, but I still think he'll be good.
I agree with Ken and I posited something similar a few weeks back. He plays all out in the field and it probably does lead to some nagging little injuries which hinder his production. In the field he reminds me of Coco in 2006 , another year of playing time and he'll probably get better reads fly balls and won't have to dive as much.
#2
Posted by JaredK, August 8, 2008 10:21 AM
Apparenty Bud Selig has opened an investigation into Manny's actions prior to the trade. Sounds like it is based on the supposed Scott Boras quote that he would play hard if his options were dropped. Don't see it going anywhere.
#3
Posted by Tom A, August 8, 2008 10:27 AM
Yeah, I saw that too Jared. I wish it could go somewhere, but clearly MLB has no power or nothing other than circumstantial evidence. It would make my season if Manny were suspended for a month or something. What he did in Boston vs. what he's doing in L.A. is reprehensible. In any other profession he would have been fired (and probably arrested for the McCormick incident), yet in baseball if they'd even suspended him for those things the Union would have rushed to his defense. Situations like this are what sicken me in baseball sometimes.
#4
Posted by Lyndsay, August 8, 2008 10:30 AM
on the Jacoby thing - can we call him Bizarro A-Rod? i.e., he plays mediocrely (not sure if that's a word) the entire season and wakes up right before the playoff race?
#5
Posted by jimc, August 8, 2008 10:42 AM
I dont think he will ever be much over .300 hitter but he can certainly make better contact and look more confident than as of late. He's a hard worker and I think he will turn it around and finish the year on a positive note.
#6
Posted by Tom A, August 8, 2008 10:52 AM
Yeah, Ellsbury has looked better recently. Lets hope that this continues and he can finish the season strong.
Long term I'd look for him to be about a .300 hitter, a speed threat on the bases, above avg. CFer, and maybe show some power (15-20 HRs doesn't sound too unreasonable).
#7
Posted by KenM, August 8, 2008 11:14 AM
Ellsbury's slump began when he hurt his wrist making a diving catch. He really has not been the same since. I do not believe that this is coincidence. Yes, like all young hitters he will have to make adjustments but it is hard to hit if you don't have your hands working. Just look at Papi. The fact that he is not using it as an excuse speaks well of the kid.
Just my opinion.
#8
Posted by Gerry, August 8, 2008 1:38 PM
I think that Jacoby's history at the plate insures that he will mature into a fine hitter in the .300 range, and he does seem to be figuring it out. That HR the other night was a 400+ feet shot, and he should hit 10 this year, in a bad year for him, so with age he could eventually do 15 - 20, as should Dustin Pedroia and Jed Lowrie as they mature, and who knows how many Youk can hit: 25 -30 this year and beyond? Along with their above average D, the BA, added pop, and similar, pitcher-fatiguing approach of these 4 should help us win alot of games in the coming years.
In terms of Jacoby's value, most of us value Coco for his game winning D and speed. Jacoby's D and speed are better. But if he can also maintain .300, hit 15-20HR, steal 50 - 60 bases every year, he will be a perpetual All Star. The missing piece is his bat, and we will know this year.
#9
Posted by Bob, August 8, 2008 2:20 PM
Giles vetoed a deal to the Red Sox. Oh well, at least no one else gets him.
#10
Posted by Sean O, August 8, 2008 2:28 PM
Gotta hand it to Theo, he did exactly what he should have done here. Worst case scenario, we get a great bat off the bench and (probably) some draft picks. But assuming that he would in fact veto the deal, blocking a high OBP player from the OBP starved Angels (18th in majors, 11th in the AL) is big.
So, I'm critical of Theo a lot, but he done good here.
#11
Posted by Steven Roth, August 8, 2008 2:45 PM
Call me stupid but why can't any other teams go for Giles now that the deal with the Sox is off?
#12
Posted by Shane, August 8, 2008 2:58 PM
I think he would have to go through waivers again... And the Sox would just do the same thing over again. So it's conceivable that any team with a lower winning percentage could get him.
#13
Posted by Tim Daloisio, August 8, 2008 3:02 PM
The next waiver would be irrevocable however and SD wouldn't receive anything in return should someone claim him.
"If a player is claimed, the club that put the player on waivers cannot rescind the waiver process. Once he is claimed and awarded, the player is the property of the claiming club, which would then also be responsible for the player's contract."
#14
Posted by JimT, August 8, 2008 4:15 PM
Reading Jim Rice's comments I have a question. Where the heck is Dave Magidan, the hitting coach?. Why did it take Jim Rice's observation skills and suggestion to help Ellsbury get back on track?
If Ellsbury was hurt and it effected his play, yet he continued to play through it, well that's OK. You have to give him credit for "answering the bell". But if want we have seen for the past six weeks or so is the real Jacoby Ellsbury then we have a very mediocre player. He has to get on base and score runs to be an impact player. Things he hasn't done a good job at recently.
#15
Posted by JaredK, August 8, 2008 4:47 PM
The whole issue with Jacoby is making solid contact. He generates more shit contact then any player I have seen since, well I guess maybe Julio Lugo. Just seeing him driving the ball (like he did in Sept/Oct) is a welcome sight. I missed his homerun (saw the replays and it was a shot) but I actually got excited at his groundout to first base the other night because it was a bullet. It is so rare that he seems to square up on the ball. I mentioned in another thread a while ago that I thought his balance was off because his front foot was firmly planted before his bat was coming through the zone. Hopefully this hands thing addresses it...I don't know what his homerun potential is (I would guess 12-18) but if he is making solid contact he can get his obp up around .360-370 he is a huge asset at the top of the line-up in addition to his defense in center.
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