August 20, 2008
Cy Contenders
Don't you just love when bloggers give you one of those blind, Pitcher A, Pitcher B you make the call type columns? I for one sure do!
So here goes:
Pitcher A:
15-2, 2.77 ERA, 7.74 K/9
Pitcher B:
12-4, 3.17 ERA, 6.12 K/9
Wow, while Pitcher B is having a nice season, Pitcher A is dominating. Is Pitcher A Pedro in his prime?
Ok...for Red Sox fans, this is a pretty easy one. Of course the big reveal shows Pitcher A to be Daisuke Matsuzaka and Pitcher B to be Jon Lester. And no, I am not making any comparisons between Pedro and Daisuke, that would just be silly.
The larger point I wanted to illustrate here was the likelihood, against all sense of justice in the baseball universe, that if the season ended today Daisuke Matsuzaka would finish higher in the Cy Young balloting than Jon Lester on the merits of the numbers above.
While the American League Cy Young award for 2008 may be Cliff Lee's to lose (17-2, 2.43 ERA) and for my part I find it very difficult not to give Roy Halladay serious consideration for his appearance across the leaderboard for component pitching categories, both Jon Lester and Daisuke Matsuzaka will merit top five consideration for the award this season.
For any of us that have watched both pitchers this season, what a travesty the thought of Matsuzaka topping Lester in a national vote truly is.
From his 5-1 record and 1.41 ERA in games following a Red Sox loss (taking the "Stopper" label off the lapel of Josh Beckett's uniform) to his no-hitter, Lester's season has been everything that a team can expect out of the best pitcher in their rotation.
We'll leave the "who is the ace argument for the off-season, but it's clear that Lester's been the best pitcher on the staff in 2008.
As for Daisuke Matsuzaka, while the 15-2 record and sub-3.00 ERA look gaudy, watching him work through the innings that compile those stats can look downright gruesome. While he's near unhittable, his 6.89 hits allowed per nine ranks second in the American League, his 1.37 WHIP is pedestrian at best and while his 7.74 K/9 rate is above average, his 1.42 K/BB rate is, well, worse than bad.
Daisuke Matsuzaka may end up higher in the Cy Young balloting than Jon Lester come the end of the season, but Jon Lester's clearly been the better pitcher.
Discussion
18 Comments on "Cy Contenders"
#2
Posted by JaredK, August 20, 2008 12:17 AM
What's amazing with Dice-K's numbers is that he does not get deep into games and somehow is 15-2 despite our horrible bullpen. Winning 15 games when having to depend our pen for 3-4+ innings most outings is surprising to me.
#3
Posted by Dan, August 20, 2008 12:57 AM
Effecttively wild is certainly something Dice-K is. I think he knows what he's doing more so than we believe. His around the zone pitching has led to only 8 home runs against him this year, while hitters left the park 25 times against him last year.
#4
Posted by jvwalt, August 20, 2008 10:50 AM
I think Dice deserves a bit more credit than he generally gets. He's certainly unconventional and can certainly be maddening to watch -- but he does pitch out of jams, and he does have a sub-3 ERA in the American League. That's awfully good. I think you'd have to call him "effectively wild" -- the hitters never know what to expect or where it's going.
The primary detriment is the bullpen load. Lester averages an extra inning per start, more or less. That's what makes Lester the most valuable pitcher on the staff. Dice makes a darn fine #2, though. I'd say he's earning his pay.
#5
Posted by Bob, August 20, 2008 11:05 AM
I wonder if Dice-K pitches better w/ runners on because he's going from the stretch. His windup involves a lot balancing and such, maybe he just needs to simplify things sometimes.
#6
Posted by Jc, August 20, 2008 11:36 AM
Dice-k is not "effectively wild", he has been "LUCKY", his strand rate is sky high, no pitcher can get away with walking so many hitters, the hits with men on base will come and it will get ugly, i wouldn't trust this guy in any important game down the stretch, our top 3 for the playoffs should be Lester, Wake and Beckett (in that order) but i know that won't happen so we are stuck with dice-k.
#7
Posted by Bob, August 20, 2008 11:46 AM
The reason for the high strand rate is the low hit rate. Walks score runs but they don't bring them in. You need to have hits to do that, Matsuzaka doesn't give up many hits.
#8
Posted by Daniel Rathman, August 20, 2008 1:17 PM
I suppose Dice-K could be a unique exception, but if he isn't, the regression is going to be horrifyingly ugly.
BABIP: .264 (way lower w/RISP)
FIP: 4.12 (1.4 R/9 higher than his ERA)
LOB%: 81.6 (hadn't stranded that percentage even in Japan since 2002)
If his luck turns, God help us.
#9
Posted by Daniel Rathman, August 20, 2008 1:21 PM
That said, I'm far less worried about Lester.
BABIP: .296
FIP: 3.63
LOB%: 77.5
He's not really getting away with anything. So unless Dice-K is too special for things like BABIP, I'd definitely agree that Lester's been the better pitcher this year.
#10
Posted by Steven Roth, August 20, 2008 2:55 PM
Watching Dice-K was horrendous last night...every count seemed to go to 3-2. I really wish he would trust his stuff and go after hitters instead of throwing off the corners every pitch! His pitch count (I know he thinks nothing of it) needs to slow down a bit...going 88 pitches through 4 is nothing to be proud of.
#11
Posted by Troy, August 20, 2008 3:30 PM
It is what it is. Count on this. DK is not going anywhere.
#12
Posted by bill, August 20, 2008 3:52 PM
Dice - K nor Lester will win the Cy, calm down Red Sux fans. Lee will win it and Halladay win finish second. The Moose should finish somewhere in the top 5.
#13
Posted by Bob, August 20, 2008 4:21 PM
Here's what I see as the difference between Dice-K's "wildness" and Clay's lack of command:
Dice-K is a confident pitcher with a lot of experience so the walks don't faze him at all. Clay on the other hand lacks the experience and confidence to pitch out of jams so he grooves a pitch. Basically, he doesn't have Dice-K's guts. Dice-K can also get away with trying to hit the corners because he has movement on his fastball and can get guys to swing and miss on it. Clay has a straight fastball which he can't command right now. Varitek has proven in this series that any major league hitter can time a fastball and cheat on it, especially if it's straight.
#14
Posted by Evan Brunell, August 20, 2008 4:50 PM
Thanks for your expertise, Bill. We're all better off for it.
#15
Posted by bill, August 20, 2008 4:59 PM
Youre very welcome Evan. I hope I can give these bloggers a look on the dark side - the Yankee side. Abandon the Nation for the Empire my friends. We'll be back with a bang next year. Its only a matter of time. Enjoy it while you can Red Sux fans, because you will soon suffer another drought. Go Yanks!
#16
Posted by Bob, August 20, 2008 4:59 PM
Kinda makes you wish that people would read the article before they make knee jerk reactions. Of course we do it all the time as Red Sox fans so I guess it's a give and take...
#17
Posted by gerry, August 20, 2008 10:20 PM
Lester is now a potential Cy Young, when 8 months ago he was trade bait for Santana (with Masterson and Lowrie). The injured Beckett is suddenly a flop, when 8 months ago he was the second coming . . . along with Clay. We have 3 Aces, of which Beckett is hurt, Lester is still finding himself, and Daisuke is a magician; and we have an Ace in waiting, if we don't ruin him, in Buchholz.
But with Beckett, Wake, Colon, Schilling and Buchholz out of it, we are now down to 3 pitchers. What a game.
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