October 9, 2008
Key factors of the Sox/Rays ALCS
Tomorrow, the series to decide the 2008 A.L. Champion will commence. In one corner will be the former whipping boys of fate, now the most successful baseball franchise of the last five years. In the other corner will be a team experiencing the playoffs for the very first time after making 90 losses a yearly tradition.
Will the Red Sox continue atoning for 86 years of failure or will the Rays continue their worst-to-first ascent? What are the key factors for the ALCS?
KEY FACTOR 1: HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE
The dome in St. Petersburg has become a tool the Rays feed off of and use to their advantage. With the crowds showing up at games and banging their cowbells, there's a reason they're 23-2 at home with crowds larger than 30,000.
Meanwhile, Yankees general manager Brian Cashman says the final nine outs as an opponent are the hardest in Fenway. The crowd is right on top of the action and can swallow you up if you aren't careful.
The Rays hold home field. To win the series, at least one game must be won on the road. It's not going to be easy.
KEY FACTOR 2:  JOSH BECKETT
The Sox were able to get away with Beckett's subpar start against the Angels because of Jon Lester, the gaffes made by the Angels and the short series. In a seven-game series, all the warts of the team will be exposed. We can't limp into the World Series with only one bona fide starting pitcher; we need two. The Rays' pitching is so good that we may even need three, but let's stick to two for now.
Beckett only got one swing-and-a-miss from a right-handed hitter in Game 3, a trend that simply cannot continue. Was it due to his oblique strain? Was it due to his layoff? Can Beckett rise up to the occasion? As Terry Francona aptly puts it: "Before Beckett's last start, he was the best postseason pitcher maybe in the history of the game. He had the audacity to be a little rusty after two weeks."
Notice the sarcasm?
Sarcasm aside, if he doesn't have the audacity to win what will be a pivotal game, (either the Red Sox get their one away game they need or put their foot on the Rays' neck by taking the first two games) the Rays will continue their Cinderella run.
KEY FACTOR 3: BOTTOM OF THE ORDER
With Mike Lowell out for the ALCS with a hip problem, the depth of the Red Sox lineup shrinks. Now, the bottom of the order looks to be Kotsay/Cora, Lowrie and Varitek.
Lowrie slumped near the end of the year but his .364 average in the ALDS is cause for optimism. However, banking on the rookie would be a mistake. Kotsay and Cora don't particularly embarrass themselves with the bat, but Lowell they are not. Varitek's had a terrible year and was pinch-hit for during one of the ALDS games, much to his consternation.
Conversely, the bottom of the order for the Rays is Dioner Navarro, Rocco Baldelli/Fernando Perez/Gabe Gross and Jason Bartlett. Navarro has had an excellent year, while the right-field tandem serves up punch and Bartlett has a .286 batting average. The Rays' bottom of the order is far deeper, although you could argue that the Red Sox's 1-6 is superior to the Rays' 1-6. But the game has nine batters, not six. We can't have three automatic outs every time through the order.
WHAT ADVANTAGES DO THE RAYS HOLD?
The Rays, as we previously discussed, hold home field advantage. Their pitching is superior from pitchers 1-5 and the bullpen. But can the Rays find their Lester, Beckett and Papelbon? The team is also healthy with the feeling of being invincible as the Cinderella team.
WHAT ADVANTAGES DO THE RED SOX HOLD?
The Red Sox have experience, which is crucial in the playoffs. Some players and teams (looking at you, Cubs of Chicago) simply don't have the personnel capable of handling the bright lights. It's been widely said that the Red Sox needed a team of carefree players to win the World Series, and I'm sold on that argument. The Red Sox have been over the hump and won it all twice. They know what it takes. Terry Francona has not been outmanaged once during his playoff career and is quickly establishing himself as one of the best playoff managers of all time.
ENOUGH WITH THE SEMANTICS, WHO'S GONNA WIN?
Evan: Sox in 6.
Ryne: Sox in 6.
Shawn: Sox in 6.
Tim: Sox in 6.
Discussion
20 Comments on "Key factors of the Sox/Rays ALCS"
#1
Posted by Steven Roth, October 9, 2008 12:34 AM
Sox in 5. Inexperience will hurt the Rays. I know, it hasn't hurt them all year but when they are THIS close to the World Series mistakes are going to pop up. Having mohawks and fans for the first time isn't going to help them.
GO SOX.
#2
Posted by Tessie's Dad, October 9, 2008 1:21 PM
Sox in seven: we'll lose one to the cowbells, one to the umps, and one to the Rays themselves.
#3
Posted by Colin, October 9, 2008 1:29 PM
I knew those damn cowbells had the potential to fuck us up in ways we couldn't think. Gotta find whoever makes them, fill them with cement, and then throw them all into the actual Tampa Bay.
#4
Posted by Mr. Original, October 9, 2008 1:47 PM
Sox in 6?! You all picked Sox in 6? Was there a convention or something I missed? ...and I came here for an original thought.
#5
Posted by Evan Brunell, October 9, 2008 1:52 PM
I know, really weird that we all made the same prediction; we all made them not knowing the other predictions...
Mike Scandura has Rays in 7, by the way.
#6
Posted by Colin, October 9, 2008 1:52 PM
Mr. Original...
Would you prefer naivete and had them pick a Sox sweep or just have one of them say the Rays will win.
Just because there's a unanimous decision doesn't mean there's a lack of originality. They agreed on a compromised notion.
#7
Posted by LorfTVP, October 9, 2008 2:02 PM
Hey, Evan, I'm pretty sure you're in my Rhetoric of Law class. I was pretty surprised, going over the the artifact contexts to see your name there. Wasn't quite sure at that point but I'm throwing a guess out there that it's you.
Ah, you're a celebrity, to some degree, in my eyes, and it amuses me how so few people know.
#9
Posted by M.A.G, October 9, 2008 2:17 PM
What about our lineup? I'm the only one who thinks Bay deserves better than the 6th hole? He has been an stud without almost any protection.
What about put him in the cleanup? In that place he can do much more damage, and I see Youk more like a 5th hole hitter, anyway.
#10
Posted by Colin, October 9, 2008 2:25 PM
M.A.G.
Sometimes certain players do well with the spot they are in. I remember Terry toying around with Pedroia's spot and Ellsbury's spot and it either translated into massive fail or massive win. Sometimes when a player is so comfortable as let's say #2 with Dusty or #5-6 with Drew/Bay, you shouldn't tamper with it again and again.
It's not always a disrespect being #6.
#11
Posted by M.A.G, October 9, 2008 2:48 PM
Colin.
I respect your position and I understand that it's not really a matter of disrespect for Bay. But I still think that move would be in the best interest of the team. In the case of Ellsbury and Pedroia they are in their natural positions, because the kind of players they are (speed and high AVG).
But in the case of Bay I think he is better suitted for the cleanup place. IMO Tito put him in the 6th because he didn't want to put too much pressure over him, when he was first traded and wanted to see if he could adapt to the AL pitching, and to the pressure of playing in Boston. But his natural position seems to be up in the lineup (power).
He could get better at bats with more protection, and, at the same time, he can provide better protection to Papi. Youk is a high OBP guy, and that could be very good as the first batter of the second half of the lineup.
Just an opinion, anyway.
#12
Posted by M.A.G, October 9, 2008 2:52 PM
Not to mention he could get more at bats, and with more runners in the basepaths.
#13
Posted by Colin, October 9, 2008 2:58 PM
You're right how Bay has the potential to be a cleanup but that's also assuming that either Ellsbury, Pedroia, and/or Ortiz make it on base. Also Youkilis has just as much potential and I don't know, knowing Youk's nature, whether he'd take the transition well should Terry adjust the lineup. I mean a #4 and #6 switcheroo could absolutely work, but once again you have to take the players's sentimentalities into account.
It also really matters what pitcher we're up against as well.
#14
Posted by Bottom Line Rob, October 9, 2008 3:24 PM
If I could pick one key it would be Beckett.
If he falters, we're screwed...
I say Sox in 7... I have a feeling this is going to be a very long and intense battle.
#15
Posted by Gerry, October 9, 2008 4:44 PM
I am comfortable with Sox in six, but these Rays are a lucky bunch and could stretch it to seven. But the Sox are a better team, just as young, just as aggressive, just as scrappy and are pulling together. Sox to the Series. The whole world would watch a series of Joe Torre, Manny, Lowe, Nomar vs. the 2008 Red Sox. Not many would watch the Rays.
#16
Posted by Evan Brunell, October 9, 2008 5:34 PM
Lorf;
Yup, that's me! You'll have to say hello next Thursday.
#17
Posted by Tessie's Dad, October 9, 2008 5:41 PM
Let's hope the Beckett in that picture is the Beckett who shows up in Tampa. Based on the standings in the background, that shot was taken on 15 September 2007, when he beat the Yankees by going 7.0 IP, with 3 H, 1 ER (a solo HR by Jeter), 2 BB & 7Ks.
It would be great if that Josh Beckett was still around. Have search parties been sent to find him?
#18
Posted by SamR, October 9, 2008 6:58 PM
Looking at this series and weighing both teams I really think either the Sox win in 7 ... or the Rays win in 5 or 6 ... If the Rays stay hot and unphased they could take it quickly from us in a few close games ... But if we can push it back to Tampa and have Beckett-Lester finish it off I think our experience in last year's ALCS would be a huge advantage to us ... but we'll have to see ... Lester in Game 3 at the Fens is the swing point in the series IMO ... No matter what it's gonna be fun
#19
Posted by SamR, October 9, 2008 6:59 PM
Oh and I agree ... If Beckett isn't Beckkkkkkkett in at least one of the games he pitches ... we are screwed
#20
Posted by M.A.G, October 9, 2008 7:41 PM
I agree. Beckett is the main factor here. If he is in shape, we have two aces, and (potentially) 4 wins. If he is not, we are in big trouble...
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