MVN - Most Valuable Network

Long term dilemma - Atkins or Hawpe?

Four years ago, the Rockies trotted out the following starting lineup on Opening Day:

1.  Luis A. Gonzalez (2B)
2.  Royce Clayton (SS)
3.  Todd Helton (1B)
4.  Preston Wilson (CF)
5.  Vinny Castilla (3B)
6.  Kit Pellow (LF)
7.  Jeromy Burnitz (RF)
8.  Charles Johnson (C)
9.  Shawn Estes (P)

Ah yes, those were dark days.  Outside of King Todd, none of those players seemed worthy at the time of any type of long term commitment.  Fortunately, things have changed considerably in the 1,403 days since as Dan O’Dowd has sculpted a youthful core known to most as “Generation R.”  Even better, O’Dowd has started to solidify this foundation for success by locking up these young players to long term contracts over the past two seasons.  Jeff Francis, Aaron Cook, Matt Holliday, and Troy Tulowitzki have all signed on through at least 2009, joining Todd Helton in forming the core of this franchise for the next several seasons. 

O’Dowd has a few decisions left to make, however, with both Garrett Atkins and Brad Hawpe looking to sign long term deals.  Obviously, money isn’t an unlimited resource for this franchise, so signing both could be difficult.  No one in the Rockies front office has ruled out signing both players, but for the purpose of this article let’s assume that there’s only enough money for one guy.  If you were Colorado’s general manager, who would you choose to sign?  It’s definitely not an easy question to answer, but here’s how I see the situation.

Garrett Atkins
Opening Day Age: 28

Pros:  Atkins’ strength undoubtedly lies in his bat.  A career .317 hitter in the minors and .302 in the Majors, Garrett has used his sweet line drive stroke to hit with great success at every level he’s been at.  With 78 extra base hits in 2006 and 61 in 2007, Atkins has lined the ball all over the yard while providing a steady presence in the middle of the order.  Despite his horrendous two month slump to start the season in ‘07, he rebounded to bat over .300 for a second consecutive year.   He hits right handed pitching as well as he does lefties and has a very good knowledge of the strike zone, walking nearly as much as he strikes out.  Also, Garrett’s line drive percentage has been 22.0% or higher in his first three full seasons, a good indicator of a player who consistently makes quality contact.

Cons:  Garrett isn’t immaculate with the bat, as he’s followed the somewhat typical Coors format of struggling on the road in comparison to at home.  His OPS is 146 points higher at the friendly confines of Coors than away from it.  But Atkins’ biggest knock is his defense at third base.  With Ian Stewart set to start the year at AAA and having already shown better defensive skill than Atkins, Garrett should be feeling a bit of pressure to step it up defensively.  His range is limited, though Clint Hurdle swore to death last year that Garrett made big strides over the second half of the season.

Brad Hawpe
Opening Day Age: 28

Pros:  There’s a reason that Hawpe is one of my favorite Rockies and that’s simply because he can flat out smash the baseball.  Known for his opposite field power, Brad has blasted 51 homers over the past two seasons.  He’s no stranger to road success either, as he’s cranked out more extra base hits away from Coors Field than at it while posting nearly identical batting average splits.  Hawpe also excels with his ability to draw walks, demonstrated by the fact that his on-base percentage has been at least 90 points higher than his batting average in each of the past two seasons.  On the defensive side, Brad’s above average arm in right field is among the most feared in the league and is a useful asset in holding runners from going first to third despite the expansive Coors outfield.

Cons:  Brad may hit at times like Superman, but if that’s the case then there’s no doubt that his Kryptonite is left handed pitchers.  His .220 career average against lefties is just plain putrid, leading Clint Hurdle to bench him against tough lefty starters like Cole Hamels.  In fact, Hawpe struck out in nearly one-third of his at-bats against LHP last season.  Granted, he was often the target of the left-handed specialist coming out of the opposing team’s bullpen late in games, but that is something he has to learn to deal with because the Joe Beimels of the world aren’t about to go away anytime soon.  Brad’s range in right field was the target of some criticism as well last year, especially when he wasn’t able to cover up some of his poor routes with his rocket arm.

On the surface, this debate may seem to boil down to simply which player is better, but when viewed in light of a long term contract one obviously has to factor more into it.  While I haven’t seen any specific dollar amounts being thrown around with these two players, I can’t imagine that one would take that much more money or years than the other to sign, so for the sake of this argument we’ll assume they’re each going to command a somewhat equal amount.  Also, the two players are the same age and have roughly the same amount of Major League experience, so that doesn’t come into play either. 

Where does that leave us in terms of what to judge on?  It helps to look at the up and coming players in the minor league system that would be ready to take over should one of these players be traded instead of signed.  Behind Atkins waits Stewart, who could be ready to vault himself back into prospect stardom with a big year at AAA Colorado Springs.  There’s no real heir apparent waiting to snag Hawpe’s job, although Seth Smith could make a case to see some playing time, especially after his successful handful of at-bats late in 2007. 

So which player would I prefer to see the Rockies sign to a long term deal?  As tough as it is for me to say this considering how much I love watching Hawpe launch bombs into the left center field bleachers, I’d have to go with Atkins.  His line drive stroke is perfect for Coors Field and I could see him shooting the gaps here for years to come.  The confidence that I have in Hawpe producing both at home and on the road was overshadowed by his inability to hit lefties and his tendencies to strike out.  Late in the game, Hawpe is too much of a liability in the lineup if the opposition still has their lefty killer available in the bullpen.  As far as potential replacements, keeping Atkins wouldn’t necessarily block Stewart, as he’s been trying new positions such as right field and second base during the past couple offseasons and appears to be athletic enough to handle a position change. 

With all that being said, there’s no right or wrong answer to this question.  Both of these guys are monsters in the middle of one of the best lineups in the National League and have earned the right to stay in a Rockies uniform.  Hopefully Dan O’Dowd and the rest of the front office will be able to find a way to get both of these guys signed to stay in Colorado for at least the foreseeable future.  Doing so would cap O’Dowd’s construction of a foundation that is a darn good start toward keeping the Rockies in contention for at least the next several years. 

*Update* - The Rocky Mountain News is reporting that the Rockies have avoided arbitration with Atkins and Hawpe by signing them to one year deals.  Garrett will make $4.38 million, with a potential $92,000 more available through plate appearance incentives, and Brad will net $3.92 million.

This entry was posted on Monday, February 11th, 2008 at 1:05 am and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.