MVN - Most Valuable Network

It’s Ugly But Still a Win

The Royals came up with a big win on Tuesday evening, besting the Tigers by the score of 3-2. Generally, when you see a score like that, you think of a tightly played pitcher’s duel. What you got instead was a ragged game in which both teams did their best to keep from scoring. The Tigers and Royals combined to put 27 runners on base and score just five, one of which was unearned.

The bright spot for the Royals was how Zack Greinke battled through his six innings of work. Working without his best stuff, battling his control and faced with a very small strike zone, Zack managed to work around nine hits and two walks to allow just two runs. All that against one of more potent offenses in the league.

Offensively, the Royals were maddeningly inefficient. It started in inning number one when Mark Grudzielanek singled and took second on the first of many ‘less than good’ defensive plays of the night when Magglio Ordonez threw behind him at first base. Alex Gordon then swung at the first pitch he saw for an out and was followed by Jose Guillen who did the exact same thing. Keep in mind, the Royals were facing a pitcher with a plus six earned run average who has battled his control at times with an umpire who would rather do just about anything than call a strike.

In the third inning, the first four Royals hitters forced Robertson to expend just eight pitches, but were bailed out by Jose Guillen’s two out double. In the fourth, Kansas City somehow managed to get two hits and make three outs on just nine Robertson offerings. In the fifth, the Royals put runners on first and second, only to have Gordon line into a double play on the first pitch and Guillen end the inning on another first pitch. In the sixth, Butler, Teahen and Buck all put the second pitch of their at-bats into play with Buck singling but inexplicably getting picked off of first. Frankly, what is John Buck doing ever being more than one step from a base?

The Royals pieced together a nice two out rally to win the game in the bottom of the eight (thanks to Edgar Renteria’s blind toss to no one that allowed Esteban German to score from second on a Mark Teahen infield single.) that won the game and salvaged what was otherwise a really awful night at the plate. Despite amassing 12 hits and a walk, the Royals forced the Tigers’ pitchers to throw only 107 pitches on the night. Had it not been for the hard fought effort by Zack Greinke and the usual lights out performance by the bullpen’s ‘A’ team of Ramirez, Nunez and Soria this could have been one of the most frustrating games of the year.

As it was, however, it turned out to be big win for the Royals. A win is a win, however ugly it might have been.

This Offense Is Offensive

As I mentioned on Friday, if you haven’t been reading the comments you’ve been missing on a discussion about the cause of the Royals offensive ineptitude. Yeah, a popular topic.

The argument has been made that the Royals are an impatient team with hacktastic tendencies. There are a couple of ways to tell if a team is in fact, impatient. Obviously, one way to tell is whether or not they draw walks. It appears despite the lip service paid to on base percentage in spring training, the Royals are still horribly challenged when it comes to drawing a free pass.

The average major league team has drawn 133 walks so far this season. Here are the bottom five teams ranked by total walks:

Team	Walks
Marlins	115
Mariners	115
Angels	111
Giants	110
Royals	98
Twins	83

There was a tie, that’s why the list has six teams.

The Royals placement of 29 out of 30 teams comes a no surprise to anyone reading this. Now let’s look at the average number of pitches hitters are seeing for their teams this year. Surely, we’ll see some most, if not all, of the same teams that are listed above.

The bottom five teams ranked by pitches seen per plate appearance:

Team	P/PA
Giants	3.72
Royals	3.71
Twins	3.69
Braves	3.66
Angels	3.63

Yep. There are a bunch of repeat offenders.

So from these two lists, we see that the Royals are indeed a hacktastic group, swinging early, often and badly.

But wait a sec…

Let’s go a little deeper.

Swinging Away

Fangraphs is keeping track of plate discipline and there are some interesting things to be found about our Kansas City Royals.

Let’s start with O-Swing %, which is a percentage of swings a hitter takes at a ball that is outside of the strike zone. In other words, it’s the percentage of times a hitter swings at a pitch that would be called a ball if he exhibited some discipline and left the bat on his shoulder. It’s a great measure of plate discipline.

The average major league hitter swings at pitches outside the zone around 23% of the time. Here’s how Royals hitters are doing this year:

Player	O-Swing %
Callaspo	12.6%
Gathright	13.0%
DeJesus	17.7%
Butler	18.5%
Buck	19.6%
Teahen	20.5%
Gordon	21.7%
Grudzielanek	25.8%
Gload	26.1%
Guillen	28.1%
Pena	34.2%
Olivo	40.0%

That’s actually not too bad. Seven of the 12 Royals hitters (Esteban German has been excluded because he has only 22 at bats) are better than major league average in swinging at pitches outside the zone. On the surface that seems pretty solid.

I haven’t compared the Royals to other teams, but Aaron Gleeman posted the same numbers for the Minnesota Twins last week. It’s a useful comparison because if you remember from above, only the Twins have fewer walks than the Royals. He looked at 11 hitters and on the Twins, only four were better than major league average.

Fangraphs went a little deeper and examined the correlation between swinging at pitches outside the strike zone and how it relates to walks and strikeouts. Not surprising they found players with a high O-Swing % also had low walk rates. More interesting was the fact that a high O-Swing % does not correlate to high strikeout rates. That’s probably because we’re talking about professional hitters who are in the major leagues for the fact they can have their bat meet a ball on a regular basis - no matter where the pitch is located. I’d be interested to see how a high O-Swing % correlates to batting average though, because I’m thinking that although hitters can make contact, they rarely make good contact when swinging at pitches outside of the strike zone.

So despite some exceptions (ahem, Mr. Pena and Mr. Olivo) the Royals as a team don’t swing at crazy, stupid at pitches out of the zone. I see this as good news: That for the most part, the Royals do exhibit some form of plate discipline and can be counted on not to swing at an overabundance bad pitches.

Making Contact

So now, let’s turn our attention to the pitches that stay in the strike zone and how the Royals do when they swing at strikes. On Fangraphs, this is known as Z-Contact % and it is the percentage when a hitter makes contact on pitches inside the strike zone. Contact includes fouls. Major league average for making contact when swinging at pitches in the zone is around 88.3%.

Here’s how the Royals look:

Player	Z-Contact %
DeJesus	97.9%
Callaspo	97.5%
Gathright	93.3%
Grudzielanek	92.2%
Butler	92.1%
Gload	89.5%
Gordon	87.3%
Pena	86.0%
Guillen	83.7%
Teahen	82.1%
Buck	81.5%
Olivo	75.2%

Now we’re onto something.

Six of our 12 hitters are above average when it comes to making contact on pitches inside the strike zone, but look at our representatives. The Royals’ top four percentages belong to hitters with zero power potential. Callaspo and Gathright have almost 150 plate appearances between them and a total of four extra base hits. The Royals best contact hitters aren’t power threats.

And don’t think you have to lack power to have a Z-Contact % higher than 90%. Perhaps you’ve heard of players like Albert Pujols (96.2%), Connor Jackson (94.6%) and Chase Utley (92.2%).

Unfortunately for the Royals, the heart of the order is below average when it comes to making contact on pitches in the zone. As we’ve seen in recent games, getting on base isn’t always the problem. But as Clark noted, moving them to scoring position and bringing them around to score seems to be a huge chore.

The RBI Issue

I’m not a fan of the RBI stat, but I am a fan of RBI percentage. RBI percentage is simply the number of runners a player drives in, divided by the total runners on base when he’s at bat. It’s a good stat that gives us a better idea of how a player (or team) is in a run scoring situation.

And the Royals collective RBI percentage is awful.

For some perspective, the current RBI% leader is Josh Hamilton who drives in 26.2% of all base runners. Second is Emil Brown at 25.2%. I think I’m going to be sick. Anyway, above 20% is outstanding and above 17% is very good.

Here’s how the Royals are doing:

Player	RBI %
DeJesus	27.7%
Buck	17.7%
Butler	16.3%
Gload	15.5%
Gordon	15.4%
Guillen	14.1%
Olivo	12.2%
Pena	12.1%
Callaspo	9.4%
Teahen	9.2%
Gathright	7.7%
Grudzielanek	6.9%

DeJesus is quietly having an outstanding season. He’s not the leader in this category because I was looking at qualifiers and because of his injuries, he’s had only 97 at bats. Buck is the only other Royal who I would characterize as being very good at driving in runs, but he’s hovering close to the bottom of the “very good” range.

Otherwise, this is a disgusting table.

– Teahen has come to bat with a runner on third eight times. He’s driven in one of those runners. (12.5%)

– Guillen has come to bat with a runner on second 29 times. He’s driven in four of those runners. (13.8%)

– Olivo has come to bat with a runner on second 28 times. He’s driven in one of those runners. (7.1%)

– Grudz has come to bat with a runner on second 20 times. He has yet to drive home a runner from second. (0.0%)

And on and on…

Conclusions

My feeling is plate discipline isn’t the problem for this team. I don’t have a problem with the Royals being among the bottom as far as pitches seen per plate appearance, because the data says they’re not swinging out of control.

Part of the problem is the fact they’re not making enough contact on pitches in the zone. If they’re swinging and missing at pitches, they’re either falling behind in the count or they’re striking out. Either way, it’s not a good situation.

And what compounds the lack of contact is the fact they can’t move runners around the bases.

The best contact guys are hitting at the top of the lineup which is ideal. But the meat of this lineup is woefully inadequate. Guillen, Gordon and Butler have been underperforming in RBI opportunities and Teahen no longer has any business hitting in the heart of the lineup.

There’s no easy solution to this. Guillen is supposed to warm up with the weather. Whatever. Butler and Gordon are in their second year and still developing so the jury’s still out on what their limited track record means. For better or for worse, these are our guys.

But simply put, this is not a lineup that is capable of scoring runs. It’s just not.

Dayton Moore has done an outstanding job repairing a pitching staff that was in tatters. It’s time for him to turn his attention to the lineup.

Sorry for the lengthy post. But I’m discussing the problems with the Royals offense. If you thought it would be short, you haven’t been paying attention. Thanks for reading.

MVN Coverage of Royals’ Minor League Affiliates

Just a quick heads up/shameless plug that I will also be writing about the Kansas City minor league system for MVN. You can locate the site from the dropdown menu above or by clicking here.

Of course, I will continue to post here at The Authority with Craig, but please drop by The Royal Line to get some minor league information and analysis.

Bannister Salvages a Miserable Weekend

The Royals managed to score 13 runs over the weekend, something of an offensive explosion for this crew, but it still took a eight innings of shutout ball from Brian Bannister on Sunday to get a win.

Bannister was fantastic, looking much like the pitcher who started the season with three wins. I’d tell you more about Brian’s outing, but to be honest, it is hard to figure out. Throw the pitch data from one of his three previous poor starts up agaisnt the data from this one and the only real difference is that the stat lines end with ‘out’ instead ‘run scored’. It’s okay, we don’t have to understand everything. I’ve watched Tom Glavine pitch for twenty years and still don’t know why he is effective.

Bannister is going to have strings of good starts and then strings of bad ones. That is the nature of number three starters and my guess is that Brian will end up being one of the better number threes around over time. Simply analysis of yesterday: Bannister kept the ball down, worked both corners of the plate and had balls in play find his fielder’s gloves.

However, my focus for this morning is on the offensive side of the ball. The Royals amassed 34 hits and nine walks over the three weekend games, which is pretty good, but converted those 43 baserunners into just 13 runs. It’s not that Kansas City is horrible at the plate with runners in scoring position (their .727 OPS is 10th in the AL), but it simply a matter of NOT getting runners in scoring position.

Through yesterday, the Royals had batted 269 times with runners in scoring position. That is 30 times less than the next lowest number of at-bats in the league. It’s not just that the Royals are bad offensively (.669 OPS overall is last in the league and, of course, they are last in runs scored by sixteen runs), they are really bad at getting their runners into scoring position.

All of that is probably not that suprising: bad offensive teams put fewer runners on base and move them along at a lessor rate and hence do not as many chances. Not rocket surgery there.

However, the Royals also had a critical, critical failing over the weekend: scoring runners from third base. Including Thursday’s game, Kansas City put 16 runners on third base during the four game series and scored just six of them. That may not sound too bad, except for the fact that the Royals had TWENTY-THREE chances to score those sixteen runners.

A team struggling to score simply has to convert when they have a runner on third and less than two outs. Batters need to get a hittable pitch and loft it into the outfield or push the ball to the right side of the infield. The Royals simply cannot squander that many chances when all they need to do is move a runner 90 feet to score.

Now, the Royals got very average pitching other than Bannister outings in this series. Meche was bad, so was Tomko and Hochevar was ‘okay’. Scoring runners from third may not have changed the outcome of this series, but there will be lots of games when the Royals do get good pitching and scoring that runner from third will become absolutely critical (if it’s not already).

For The Want of a Curveball

Friday night, the Royals went down to defeat at the hands of the Orioles 7-4. Four runs should be enough when Kansas City has Gil Meche on the mound - if they had scored that many last season for Gil, he likely would have won 16 or 17 games.

This year, however, four runs is not usuall near enough. Meche struggles to finish off hitters: last night expending 10 pitches to strike out Kevin Millar in the second, allowing Melvin Mora to work a nine pitch walk in the first and starting the game with a 7 pitch out against Brian Roberts. Worse, as it has most of the season, the Gil’s curveball was ineffective.

Of the 98 pitches it took Meche to get through five innings, only fourteen were curveballs. Not once did a hitter swing and miss at one of Meche’s curves. The results on curves were as follows:
1 - called strike
3 - foul balls
5 - balls
1 - ground out
2 - singles
2 - home runs

That’s right, four of the six hits allowed by Meche were on curveballs and the two home runs he allowed (one after being ahead 0-2 in the count) drove in all five runs charged to Gil. Control and velocity issues aside (Meche routinely reached 96 mph last season, this year has rarely even tickled 94 mph), the lack of a good curve had turned Meche into a below average pitcher.

Until Meche can recapture a pitch that was widely regarded as the best curve in the organization, his turn in the rotation is likely to yield a lot more outings like Friday night.

Punchless

Three hits, huh?

– Luke Hochevar should consider this his “Welcome to KC” game. In other words, he pitched a decent game, but got zero support from his offense. He struck out five and walked two, so his K:BB ratio is just a notch below 2:1. Remember, that was always something that was supposedly holding him back in the minors, so it’s a positive stat.

Of course, both of his walks came around to score.

Hochevar ended up throwing 109 pitches and got 11 ground ball outs in his seven innings of work. Nick Markakis hit the big home run, but were you as surprised as I was when it went over the wall? Honestly, I thought the pitch was decent and Markakis hit a harmless fly to center. But it just kept going and going… On the positive, it was nice to see Hochevar bear down and get the next two batters to get out of the inning.

Home run aside, he’s headed in the right direction.

– Watching the postgame show on FSN, Frank White and the other dude (sorry, dude, but that’s what happens when you share a stage with #20) were talking about how the Royals did battle at the plate and ran the count to three balls often. I’m not sure what that means, because while 3-0 and 3-1 is a prime hitters count, if you don’t capitalize on that, who really cares?

By my count, there were four at bats where the Royals had at least three balls. They drew one walk in the game - take a bow, John Buck.

– I give Tony Pena a bunch of crap (most of it deserved) so I have to give him credit for having a great at bat in the fifth to drive in the Royals only run of the night. Down in the count 0-2, Cabrera came back with a 95 mph fastball on the inner half of the plate and Pena got his hands just out in front and was able to dink it down the line in right.

– Alberto Callaspo was in the outfield in place of Jose Guillen who has a sore shoulder. Kind of weird to see Callaspo in left not to mention the fact he hit sixth.

Seriously, what’s the deal with Hillman and his lineups? Just because Guillen hit in the sixth spot the night before, that doesn’t mean the next night’s left fielder has to bat in the exact same spot. I’m probably making too much of this lineup thing, but I’d really like to see Callaspo get some at bats as either the leadoff or number two.

– When Daniel Cabrera wasn’t striking out Billy Butler, the rest of the team was killing worms. Of the 23 balls put in play, 19 were grounders. 19!

– PROGRAMMING ALERT!

If you’ve been following the comments section (and seriously, you should because there’s some really insightful stuff going on), there’s been a debate about why exactly the Royals offense has been… let’s just say lackluster.

On Tuesday, I’ll have a look at the Royals approach at the plate. Be sure to wear your sabermetric tin foil hats.

Zack Greinke Comes of Age

It may seem strange to you that I wrote the above headline after Zack Greinke gave up the most earned runs of any outing he has had this season. You could certainly make a case, save for a five inning-two run start in Oakland, that last night’s seven inning-three runs allowed affair was Zack’s worst outing of the year (which in and of itself tells you how well he has pitched in 2008). What I saw last night, however, was a young pitcher truly pitching.

Facing a talented club in the Angels that had just taken two games from his team, Greinke took the mound in the first inning and did his best to impersonate Jorge De La Rosa. Zack had about as much idea of where his pitches were going as the backup pitcher on your slow-pitch team does. At one point, John Buck set up low and outside and Zack’s fastball ended up high and inside. After walking just 10 batters in 43 innings, Greinke walked two in the first and left the inning trailing 1-0 only because he kept his compusure and made a nice pick-off play on Vlad Guerroro at second base.

In the first, Zack threw 27 pitches, just 14 for strikes. Sixteen of those pitches were fastballs, none were curves. Nine of those fastballs were thrown 95 mph or faster. It was a ragged inning - one that could have turned into a disaster, but Greinke held it together and stayed with his plan.

The plan, apparently, was to throw fastballs really hard early. In the second inning, thirteen of Zack’s 17 pitches were fastballs and EIGHT of those were 95 mph or above. He began to find his control, tossing 11 strikes versus just six balls. As in the first, no curveballs were offered.

Now came the third innning and the second time through the Angels’ order. All of sudden we had curves and changes and just four fastballs thrown out of 15 total pitches (9 strikes, 6 balls). Zack fell behind Gary Matthews 2-0 and got him to foul out. He fell behind Erick Aybar 3-0 and came back to get him to fly out. His control was beginning to come around and suddenly the Angels found themselves facing a four pitch pitcher instead of the fastball/slider guy that had been on the mound the first two innings.

In the fourth inning, six of twelve pitches were fastballs (four over 95 mph) and no curveballs were seen. In the fifth six of ten were fastballs, all 94 mph or less and in the sixth, Zack tossed six pitches and everyone was a fastball (just one over 94 mph). In those three innings, Greinke tossed 23 strikes and just 5 balls.

In my opinion, the ability to go from being almost incapable of finding the strike zone to being able to hit it over 80% of the time and do so with all your pitches is truly remarkable. It is the kind of thing front-line top of the rotation starters do. A lot of guys will take the mound, fight their control and eventually become one pitch pitchers, but Zack righted the ship with ALL of his pitches and did so against a very good offensive team.

Sure, in the 7th, Greinke grooved a 93 mph fastball to Mike Napoli that turned into a monstrous two run homer, but he also came back to toss three balls over 95 mph on his way to throwing 12 strikes and just five balls in that inning. He ended the inning by breaking out for the first and only time all the night, the big slow (69 mph) curve for the inning ending strikeout.

While Greinke was undoubtably helped by the Royals scoring nine runs Wednesday night (baseball sure seems easier when you score runs, doesn’t it?), he displayed the kind of composure and ability that true aces have.

While it sounds funny, last night was not a dominant outing by Zack Greinke last night, but it just might have been his best.

Bannister Struggles and Teahen Needs To Move In The Lineup

Long title, but I’ve got a couple of prime thoughts brewing today.

Hmmmm… Second consecutive rough outing for Brian Bannister. What do we make of this?

For starters, he’s had similar rough patches before. Here are his stats from his last four starts:

21.1 IP, 33 H, 19 ER, 5 BB, 11 SO, 8.02 ERA

And here are his stats from his last four starts of 2007:

16.2 IP, 21 H, 19 ER, 8 BB, 5 SO, 10.26 ERA

Of course, that includes his final start of the season where he didn’t make it out of the first inning, otherwise the ERA’s are comparable.

I think what we’re seeing is the manifestation of the true Brian Bannister. No, I don’t think he’s really as bad as he’s pitched recently. What I’m saying is that I think he’s a very streaky pitcher. There are going to be times when he looks great, like he did in his complete game last month against the Twins. And there are going to be games where he’s extremely hittable, like he was on Tuesday.

The key, obviously, is that he has more good outings than bad. So far, he’s been doing just that: In four of his seven starts, he’s posted a Game Score of 51 or higher.

I’m not worried about Bannister - he knows what he’s doing and there’s no doubt in my mind he’ll make some adjustment and get back on track in his next start.

Other notes from Tuesday:

– A lot will be made about Garrett Anderson and his 5 RBI night and how he “single-handedly” beat the Royals or some such nonsense. Anderson benefitted from a lineup that was on base all night. The Angels two through five hitters each had two hits. If Bannister could have retired Casey Kotchman, it would have been a different ballgame.

– Twice, the Royals had a runner on second with less than two outs and Mark Teahen at the plate. Twice, Teahen struck out. He’s now hitting .271/.353/.381 overall and .250/.276/.357 with runners in scoring position.

Here are his fly ball rates going back to his breakout 2006:

2006: 35.4%
2007: 29.2%
2008: 30.1%

He’s never been a “true” fly ball hitter. His line drive rate for this year is solid at 21.5%, so pointing out the lack of fly balls isn’t a criticism - it’s simply stating a fact. Teahen makes good contact (when he’s not swinging at pitches out of the zone) but doesn’t generate loft very often.

Here are his HR/FB rates which tells us how often his fly balls clear the fence:

2006: 16.5%
2007: 5.8%
2008: 3.6%

That’s not supposed to happen. Teahen is 26 years old. His power should be developing, or at the very least, holding steady.

As we move further away from 2006, it looks more and more like Teahen’s power burst that season was a fluke. That’s fine, except that the Royals insist on using Teahen in the lineup like 2006 was a true indicator of his talents. There’s the problem.

With his skill set (good contact, low power) Teahen needs to be moved up in the lineup. Bat him leadoff or second, not third or sixth (where he hit on Tuesday.)

The entire Royals lineup needs an enema, so I’m not trying to single out Teahen. But Trey Hillman needs to make some changes and they need to be of the radical variety.

– With a pair of catchers on the roster who appear to be very similar when it comes to handling the bat, you have to ride the hot hand. There, I just made my case for Miguel Olivo to play ahead of John Buck. Olivo leads the team in home runs and has about half the at bats of the regulars.

Time to turn him loose.

– Alberto Callaspo needs to play everyday. Four plate appearances and he’s on base twice on Tuesday. But again, Hillman is playing his lineup in a manner that is way too rigid. Of course when Tony Pena is at shortstop you have to bat him ninth. He’s a liability with the bat. We know that. But to hit Callaspo ninth ignores the fact that we’re discussing two completely different (and by completely different, I mean one is good, the other is not) players.

Bat Callaspo first and follow him with Teahen and see what happens.

Searching for Jack Cust

As Ervin Santana and Brett Tomko matched zeroes through seven innings last night, I became obsessed with the fact that the Royals need another bat. One stinking run (as the KC Star pointed out this morning - although I don’t think they used the work ’stinking’) and the Royals bring in Joakim Soria for the ninth and last night’s 4-0 defeat has a far different outcome.

A bat to jack a Santana mistake out of the park (assuming he ever made one last night) or to drive a ball into a gap to score Grudzielanek after his double to lead off the fourth inning. That is all we needed to avoid having to second guess Trey Hillman for letting Tony Pena Jr. bat in the bottom of the eighth of a scoreless game (Miguel Olivo anyone?). We would not have to wonder about removing Ramon Ramirez (a true swing and miss guy) with a runner on third and one out in the ninth for Jimmy Gobble or for opting to go with Joel Peralta after Gobble surrendered the go ahead single (Leo Nunez anyone?). But I digress…

The Royals are not and should not sign Barry Bonds. He is a distraction that a young team does not need. If Dayton Moore wanted to add a proven, veteran bat he would have gone after Frank Thomas when he became available.

The Royals should not and will not mortgage the future for eight or ten more wins this season, either. You want Brandon Wood from the Angels (or insert the name of your favorite hitting prospect here) and you have to pay big time. We all want a better shortstop, but do you really want to surrender three prospects for them? Even then, do we know if Wood or Hu from the Dodgers will really hit in the majors?

No, for this year and this year only, Kansas City needs Jack Cust. Yes, we all laugh at Cust in the field (he makes Adam Dunn look graceful and Jose Guillen look like a gazelle). We chuckle as he flailed his way to 164 strikeouts in 124 games, but the guy did hit 26 home runs last year and posted a .408 on base percentage. All that and the A’s gave up exactly NOTHING to get him. You want a quick fix that gets the Royals to 78 wins instead of 72 and gives the likes of Gordon and Butler time to develop? Find the next Jack Cust.

Now, you could certainly insert the name Craig Brazell here. All he did in 2007 was hit 39 minor league home runs, which netted him exactly five plate appearances for Buddy Bell and a nice contract in Japan for this season. Still, those numbers were out of nowhere for Brazell and viewed (rightfully) with skepticism by just about everyone. Keep in mind, although no one seemed to want Jack Cust, he went to Oakland with 200 minor league home runs on his resume. Yes, it would have been prudent to give Craig Brazell 15 September games to prove or disprove that 2007 was a mirage, but that ship has sailed.

When looking for the next Cust, one obviously might look to one’s own organization (stop laughing). People are hopping on the Mike Aviles bandwagon after his 344/371/680 start that includes 14 doubles and 6 home runs. I like him, although he is a subpar defensive player at the position he would be called up to play (shortstop - he made 40 errors a few years back in Wichita). Also, as good as those numbers look, they are virtually identical to those of Shane Costa (331/367/585, 6 HR, 12 2B) and I don’t hear anyone clamoring for him.

Omaha also has some power, but it comes in the person of Ryan Shealy (8 HR, .197 ave) and Jason Smith (8 HR, .238 ave). Okay, so the kind of help I’m looking for is not in Omaha.

There is no science to my search for Jack Cust Jr., but here are some veteran type guys who likely could be had for next to nothing. These guys are basically the Craig Brazell/Aaron Guiel/Shane Costas of other organizations, but maybe one of them is ready to rake in the majors if given a chance.

Let’s start with a name most of you will recognize: Dallas McPherson. Currently in AAA for Florida, the former hot prospect is hitting 284/400/636 with 10 home runs. The Angels finally gave up on him over the winter and Florida signed him to play third only to go in a different direction. McPherson struggled mightily in the majors over three partial seasons, but did hit 18 homers in 117 games. Florida might have him overvalued, but it might be worth a phone call.

Nelson Cruz is toiling in AAA for Texas. He had to pass through waivers to get there and did, so the price for this guy would likely by the standard PTBNL. Cruz slugged .698 in AAA last season and is currently slugging .758 with 11 homers this season with a .511 on-base percentage. An abject failure in the majors for the Rangers, you have to wonder what a change of scenery might do for him.

Next on my shopping list is Yankee farmhand Shelley Duncan, who has an OPS of 1.172 in AAA thus far. He also his seven homers in 34 games for the Yankees in 2007 after pounding 25 in AAA. With 128 minor league homers and the Yankees in dire straits for pitching, would it take more than Kyle Davies or Brett Tomko to get him?

Okay, now comes the guy I really like. If you’ve heard of him, give yourself a gold star. The next Jack Cust might just be Mike Hessman of the Tigers’ organization. A first/third baseman, it is hard to see where he would ever get a shot with Detroit, particularly given that Mike is already 30 years old. He hit four home runs in 17 games for Detroit last season and has 254 minor league homers in his career.

This seaon, Hessman currently has 11 homers, 8 doubles and 2 triples to go with a line of 296/368/687 in Toledo. Mike has hit 19 or more home runs in TEN different minor league seasons and slugged 28, 24 and 31 dingers the last three seasons in AAA. I will be the first to admit that a guy who has essentially played AAA ball since 2002 may very well not be able to translate any success into the majors. Still, isn’t that what Jack Cust was about this time last year? A journeyman strikeout artist unwanted by everyone?

Maybe I should heed my own advice and just swallow hard and ride out 2008 as Butler and Gordon hopefully develop into All-Star caliber mashers. We can wait for Jose Guillen to get hot, which he almost inevitably will, and hope that Mark Teahen finds the power that made him so good in 2006. The Royals are not making the playoffs this year and they don’t have to face Ervin Santana every night anyway. By the way, MY GOD that guy was dealing last night!

Still, if the price of Mike Hessman is say, Joel Peralta, I say go get him and see what he can do. If you can win six or eight more games in 2008 without damaging your plan for the future, why not do it? If all Hessman or Duncan or Cruz or whomever are worth is one run a week and that run comes in the seventh inning last night and leads to Joakim Soria pitching the ninth in a save situation, they are worth the small price it would take to get them.

When Brett Tomko give you seven innings of two hit shutout ball, you almost HAVE to take advantage. If the next Jack Cust is out there and you, like me, believe there actually is a difference between winning 78 games and winning just 72 games, then the Royals should try to find him.

Pitching Like It’s 2007

Gil Meche pitches, the Royals bats struggle to score runs and it’s just like 2007 all over again.

Only this time, Meche was so good (and that bullpen, again!) that it didn’t matter the Royals could only muster two runs… It was good enough for the win.

And of course, there was Luke Hochevar on Saturday night, striking out six while allowing just three hits over six innings.

But let’s focus on the Meche outing today, because that’s where a lot of our angst has been directed over the first month of the season.

The highlights:

– He didn’t walk a batter for the first time all year. Believe me, that’s huge. He entered the game walking 4 batters per 9 IP. Compare that to last year’s walk rate of 2.58 BB/9 IP, and you see where the problem has been this year… Location, location, location. For one afternoon (at least) Meche didn’t have an issue with the strikezone at all.

I have to admit, I was a little worried early in the game. In the first inning, Meche began all three hitters with pitches out of the zone and went to a 3-2 count on the third hitter, David Dellucci. And remember last game where Meche threw 129 pitches, and you can see a reason for concern.

But for the game, Meche started just 11 of his 25 hitters off with a pitch out of the zone and had counts where Indian batters worked him for three balls only three times.

The real reason for his total pitch count of 110 pitches through seven innings was the Indians were getting some really good at bats. There were several times where Cleveland hitters were fouling off pitch after pitch after pitch. Victor Martinez saw 11 pitches in the second and Jhonny Peralta fouled off three consecutive pitches before missing at one and going down on strikes in the seventh.

– But for proof of how Meche was living in the (strike) zone on Sunday, look at his pitch count: 110 pitches with 73 strikes. That’s an outstanding ratio.

– And the bullpen remains this team’s saving grace. It has become relatively automatic for Trey Hillman where he will use Leo Nunez (or Ramon Ramirez as he did on Saturday) in the eighth before handing the ball to Joakim Soria in the ninth.

My friend Rany discussed Hillman’s pattern of use regarding Soria last week and makes some excellent (as usual) points. He argues that so far, Hillman hasn’t made the best use of Soria, but essentially, what are you going to do? This team doesn’t give you enough opportunities to use your closer very often in high pressure situations.

Soria has now appeared in 13 games and has yet to enter a game in mid-inning. The Royals record in games where he appears is 11-2. The two losses have come in games where Soria had to pitch. In the first loss, he was working on six days of rest and in the second, he was working on seven.

Three times, Hillman has called on Soria to get the last three outs in games where the Royals have a four run lead - games where he wasn’t eligible to get the save. You would think since managers seemed to be trained to use their closers in only save situations (or in blowout losses to get some work) that his usage pattern would mirror that of his appearances in the two losses - In other words, he’s in the game to get work. But that’s not how it is shaking out in the early going. In games where he’s given a four run lead, Soria has pitched on two, one and zero days of rest. Interesting.

How about this stat:

Soria pitching with at least one day of rest:
8 IP, 2 H, 1 BB, 13 SO — 14.6 K/9 IP

Soria pitching on back to back days:
5 IP, 1 H, 0 BB, 2 SO — 3.6 K/9 IP

There’s not much to work with since Soria is posting goose eggs across the board, but I’m intrigued by the dip in his strikeout rate when he’s pitching in his second consecutive game. Does this mean Soria is less effective when he throws on no rest? Well, I wouldn’t go that far because he’s still had plenty of success in that situation, but you have to wonder about the fact he’s throwing fewer strikeouts. And the mystery deepens when you realize his two strikeouts in pitching on back to back days came in the same game.

He’s made 13 appearances and failed to strike out a batter in just five of those games. And four of those came when he was throwing in his second game in as many days.

Just something to watch as the season evolves.

– Not much from the offense on Sunday as the Royals needed a Casey Blake error to claim their first run. It’s the least he could do, considering the hurt he put on the Royals in Kansas City last week.

– Tony Pena is now hitting .163/.180/.209 and Hillman say he’s going to give him another month to turn it around. Submitted without comment.