Trading Places
We might have something of interest going on in spring training.
On Sunday, Joakim Soria made his first start of the spring and was basically untouchable, throwing four innings of one hit ball while striking out three. His one hit allowed was a dink shot that rolled about 75 feet. He retired 12 batters, seven on ground balls, two on fly balls and the aforementioned three strikeouts. To say he was impressive would be an understatement.
In fact, he’s been rock solid all spring. Over three appearances totaling eight innings, Soria has allowed a total of three hits and zero walks while striking out five. I’m not one to get carried away by stellar exhibition numbers. I remember Phil Hiatt. But on a team struggling to fill a rotation, someone who is throwing the ball as well as Soria is at this moment, deserves a close look.
Ed Andrieski-AP
As a Rule 5 pick, Soria is a lock to make the team. But it’s generally been thought that he would go directly to the bullpen and spend then entire season pitching in relief. After all, that’s the generally accepted way to use a Rule 5 pitcher.
But can the Royals think outside the box? Can they go against the conventional wisdom that says a Rule 5 draftee must pitch out of the bullpen?
In the best-case scenario, Soria projects to fill a role in the middle of the rotation in the future. Why not now?
We’ve been over all of this before. Gil Meche is a number one starter in a number three starter’s clothing. Odalis Perez is the number two and he’s followed by Luke Hudson. And right now, number four is Jorge de la Rosa.
I’m sorry, but I just don’t get the infatuation with de la Rosa. Yes, he throws hard. Yes, he’s a lefty. And no, he doesn’t throw strikes.
Really, who does Buddy think he’s kidding when he’s bestowing a starting role on de la Rosa? A pitcher like that, with a low ground ball rate (41% as a starter last season for the Royals) and a high walk rate (6.15 BB/9 IP last season) does not belong in the rotation. Never mind the fact he gave up 13 home runs in 13 starts. He belongs in relief, where his ability to inflict damage can be limited.
But Soria is the Rule 5 pick and the Royals are going to want to protect him. It’s understandable that they feel that way. But if Soria can prove that he’s mentally and physically ready for the challenges he will face, why not put him in the rotation, and see what he can do.
This isn’t like bringing Leo Nunez up from Single-A, throwing him into the mix and letting him get shelled almost every time he touches the ball. Soria has pitched in the Mexican Leagues, in Mexico City. I would think the combination of the smog and the altitude would be murder on a pitcher. Besides, the Mexican League is known as a hitter’s league. And Soria more than held his own, last season posting a 3.89 ERA in 37 innings (mostly as a closer.) When looking at that ERA, don’t forget to figure in for the league and altitude. It’s pretty impressive.
Soria has pitched almost exclusively out of the bullpen since returning to action from Tommy John surgery in 2003. In his final 69 appearances in the Mexican League, only five were starts. And last season in Single-A, he made only seven appearances, all in relief. But, because of his velocity, control and his ability to get the strikeouts, he projects to eventually find his way to the rotation.
But if this were my team, I’d make the move right now. Put de la Rosa in the bullpen and give Soria the ball every fifth day and see what happens. The Royals (and the rest of baseball) might be surprised at the results.
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13 Responses to “Trading Places”
March 12th, 2007 at 3:58 am
I’ve seen no indication that Buddy is inclined or even allowed to think outside the box. Like last year, he seems determined to force square pegs into classic round starter, middle reliever and closer roles.
No worries, Soria will get many opportunities to show his stuff as a long reliever at the K.
Does it really matter who is called The Starter in KC? Should any of these guys even get ‘starters’ pay in KC? 2006 KC Pitchers with over 100 innings pitched:
Redman: 29 Starts, avg 5.76 innings pitched per game (2 CG)
Runelvys: 21 Starts, avg 5.2 innings (1 CG)
Ellarton: 20 Starts, avg 5.71 innings
Hudson: 15 Starts, avg 3.92
Let’s not even talk about Quality Starts because then we run into a stat that will remind us of Berroa’s deadly Walks to At Bats ratio.
Even so, as I recall from ‘06, you could make a decent argument that Redman, Runelvys and Ellarton were often left on the mound too long.
The guys with most innings after that were Gobble, Burgos, Peralta and Affeldt. Any reason to expect differently in 2007?
Clearly, if the KC bullpen is sitting on their thumbs in the 4th inning then Buddy ain’t paying attention. Soria, Wellemeyer and Gobble are keys because they will regularly be called upon to “start over” in the 5th and try to get to the 8th.
Then, no matter how well they do, they will give it up to, umm – according to the Star, Joel Peralta (1 Save last year). Does KC really have a closer in Dotel?
Seems to me, an out of the box idea for Buddy would be to tell all of his ‘starting rotation’: “Hey, forget about even trying to get to the 7th. We don’t have any innings eaters in KC (except for the fans). Come out with the ‘long reliever’ mindset in the 1st right away and give it all you got for three or four innings because I’m probably gonna pull you out before the end of the 5th anyway.”
March 12th, 2007 at 6:22 am
Waiting for Buddy Bell to have an original thought could be a long wait. That’s why the heat has to be on Moore to save Bell from himself. You know Buddy will play these older has-beens and never-weres at the expense of people we need to be finding out about.
March 12th, 2007 at 7:06 am
Why put him in the rotation? What’s the benefit of rushing a guy? When he is working 3 innings of no run ball in middle relief on a consistent basis then I’ll listen to the idea of putting him in the rotation.
Want a good reason not to put him in the rotation right away? Johann Santana. Rule 5 to relief (for a couple of years!) and then the rotation. Not copying this strategy is not a good idea. Let’s not re-invent the wheel. You can’t improve on what they did with him.
I think you are stretching for an idea to write about and that led you to this bad idea.
March 12th, 2007 at 7:27 am
MB - I hope we can get more from our starters. Going to the bullpen early (and often) is a recipe for disaster.
BTW, as a starter, Hudson averaged almost 6 innings per start.
Seth - Believe me, I’m not stretching for ideas. I’m stretching for candidates that can fill this starting rotation.
My point is, Soria isn’t some kid who will freak out at the first sign of a major league hitter. He seems to have a poise about him and his success in the Mexican League counts for something. Is it the same as the majors? Hell, no. But the competition he faced was Double-A to Triple-A caliber.
Santana even made 5 starts as a 21 year old rookie.
March 12th, 2007 at 7:36 am
Let’s assume Soria could hack it mentally & post sub-Redman numbers as a starter - the question I have is whether he has the stamina to do it after pitching in relief for so long.
Work something out with the Padres (NOW!) so he can be sent to Omaha right away to start. If the numbers look good at the break & he can go six w/out blowing his arm out again, bring him up. You don’t really think we’ll have the same staring 5 in May (let alone July) that we have opening day, do you?
COroyal
March 12th, 2007 at 8:44 am
I agree with Seth. Don’t rush him. For some reason, I highly, highly doubt that the Mexican league is anywhere near the equivalent to AA or AAA. I don’t see a whole lot teams plucking any Ichiros or Matsuzakas out of the Mexican League. If you’re lucky, you might find Guiel down there. In other words..we have no idea what we have. 3 spring training games does not make a guy. Let’s wait until we add the second and third decks and get playing REAL games before we decide if the guy can handle the BIGs or not.
Besides..this is a lost year anyway (ie..We aren’t going to win the pennant). I don’t mind seeing if de la Rosa can figure it out over a couple months and kind of protect our unknown quantity a little bit.
March 12th, 2007 at 9:17 am
First of all, to Sean: Stamina should not be an issue because Soria was a starter in Mexico. To Matt - the Mexican league may be a bit better than you think. Comparable to AA is probably close enough. Seth makes a good point about Santana. I would add two examples in Missouri to this - Adam Wainright and Anthony Reyes. The Royals USE to do this at one time - remember how they used Gordon and Saberhagen in relief initially?
Craig makes a good point - we are just not that good, and it is VERY possible that Soria is one of the five best starting pitcher candidates. That being said, I wouldn’t be opposed to letting him get his feet wet with long relief initially - provided Bell is intelligent enough to use him in a somewhat regular fashion - and then ease him into the rotation at mid year or so.
The bizzare thing I see is that other than Meche and Hudson, why is anybody else considered a lock (Perez) or a virtual lock (De la Rosa)? Only Meche and Hudson seem like guys we can most likely count on to be at least OK or better; I think three starting jobs should be wide open, not one or two.
March 12th, 2007 at 12:11 pm
Mike, I highly, highly doubt there are Alex Gordons or Brandon Woods or even Mitch Maiers in the Mexican League. If there were, they’d probably be in the MLB minor leagues. My point..Soria has not pitched against even top or medium tier AA talent.
March 12th, 2007 at 1:41 pm
okay, only two words to say about soria’s success in the mexican league -
PERFECT GAME
dude, the mexican league is in fact equivalent to AA/AAA. All of the scouts and Baseball America types say that the competition is very good.
However, we should go ahead and let him strut his stuff in relief for now. A sub 3.7 ERA and 7-8 K per 9 innings in June or July should be a good resume for a move into the rotation.
Everything I hear about Soria tells me has real moxie. He’s got great stuff apparently as well with a plus fastball and a plus plus curve.
Anyways, only time will tell. Good article to bring up Soria’s potential. I really think a lot of the comments left here are really off base.
We’ll see.
Go ROYALS
March 12th, 2007 at 4:06 pm
I’m pretty sure that the folks here who are saying stash Soria in the pen have not seen him pitch. Because anyone who actually saw him against the Rockies yesterday, which included the majority of their projected opening day lineup, have to come to same conclusion: Soria has to be one of the Royals top 5 pitchers. He has the stuff, he has the poise, and he has fantastic command of all three of his pitches. His sinking fastball produced a ton of grounders and he made two very good ML hitters look stupid: Matt Holliday with a changeup, and Garrett Atkins with a big overhand curve.
If he continues to pitch like this the rest of ST their is no doubt in my mind that he belongs in the rotation. My only concern is wearing him out after a pretty extensive winter campaign.
March 12th, 2007 at 4:52 pm
You’re wrong. Saw him pitch. He looked very good. He did hang a curve to Atkins right before he struck him out. Also the the pitch that Ked Atkins was a little bit of a hanger too. I’ll give him that he must have pretty tight spin on the thing to fool a hitter twice.But I remember Denny Bautista DOMINATING a very good Angels team. Where is he now? Trying to make a pitching starved Rockies team..that’s where. One game..one SPRING TRAINING game…does not mean anything. NOT A THING.
I repeat..give him time in the pen..add the second deck..put him Yankee Stadium..then we’ll see what we have. I’m not against him starting at some point in the season. Let’s just see what he’s doing when that stats actually count and players start to wait for him to hang that curve with two strikes.
And the perfect game..awesome..that’s great. I’m very happy for him. That perfect game came in the Winter League which seems to be full of teams very, very fringe prospects. The best prospects go to Arizona. He looks like he was a closer during the summer of ‘06. 15 saves with a 3.89 ERA in 37 innings. I’m sure the talent is very high for Mexico. It is not..I repeat..is not equivalent to good AA or AAA where the real prospects/talent plays. Show me the Mexican League equivalent of Alex Gordon or Brandon Wood and I’ll shut up. If that guy happens to play short, I’ll ask you to call Dayton and tell him about this diamond in the rough.
March 12th, 2007 at 9:56 pm
Matt,
Shut up:
http://tinyurl.com/33rtm4
Check out the age and statistics. I could go on and on about the Mexican League’s level of talent, but you asked for a Brandon Wood/Alex Gordon equivalent, and there you go.
Plus, BP ranked the Mexican Winter League as the toughest and best (talent-wise) of all of the winter
leagues. There’s a reason MiLB named both Mexican leagues as AAA leagues and not you.
With love,
Carlos.
March 15th, 2007 at 11:43 am
Mike Williams — I believe you incorrect about his stamina. According to the original post, Soria has been almost exclusively a reliever since 2003, Mexico or elsewhere. And before that, he was under 19 years old, so I don’t think his starting experience could have been too significant then.
Is it really going to make a difference to the Royals whether Soria or de la Rosa or whoever else is starting every fifth day? Let Soria get his feet wet in the pen, maybe give him some spot starts if he earns them, and by the end of the season you’ve gradually readied his arm for the ML season and logged ~120 valuable innings to build on next year.
This isn’t an issue with “thinking outside the box” on Rule 5 guys in general — it’s about tailoring a development plan specifically to Soria to maximize his future potential. Not immediately rushing him to the highest open position is the kind of smart, forward-thinking, non-desperation move the Royals need to be making across the board.
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