Royals Authority

The Colon File

By Clark Fosler | January 3rd, 2008

Considering that the only evidence the Royals are interested in Bartolo Colon is via a rumor on a Dominican website via the always interesting MLBTraderumors.com, this column may well be a waste of time.

Still, IF the Royals are after a veteran starter and given that Matt Clement, rumored to be a Royals target, has just signed with the Cardinals the field of potential candidates is shrinking. It does not seem logical for the Royals to go after a guy that will not be ready to go this spring (that excludes Freddy Garcia and Kris Benson from the mix, might be why Mark Prior did not get much consideration) and hence Colon suddenly becomes a frontrunner.

Here’s the Colon history:

YEAR	GS	IP	ERA	K/9	OBA	G/F RATIO
1998	31	204.0	3.71	6.97	.260	1.52
1999	32	205.0	3.95	7.07	.242	1.52
2000	30	188.0	3.88	10.15	.233	1.13
2001	34	222.1	4.09	8.14	.261	1.15
2002	33	233.1	2.93	5.80	.245	1.37
2003	34	242.0	3.87	6.43	.248	0.92
2004	34	208.1	5.01	6.83	.265	0.91
2005	33	222.2	3.48	6.35	.254	1.01
2006	10	56.1	5.11	4.95	.306	1.16
2007	18	99.1	6.34	6.89	.320	1.16

Now, the righthander will be thirty-five in May and it may well be that his weight has really started to become an issue. Bartolo has likely not been at his listed 245 pound playing weight in five years, but as any of us over 35 know: it’s tough getting old.

The positives are that this is a guy who for eight years was an absolute innings hog and damn effective, too. That stats show you a player who was pitching hurt in 2006 and struggled to come back in 2007. The good news from 2007 was that Colon’s strikeouts per nine innings rate bounced back up to it’s usual post millenium number after a big dip in 2006. The bad news was the .320 opponet batting average.

Having thrown one four inning stint in the Domincan on December 22nd (2 hits, 4 walks, 3 strikeouts) it would appear that Colon would be ready to give it a go from the start of spring training. The question is at what cost?

That is the rub, isn’t it? One year, low base salary, a bunch of incentives makes all sorts of sense for the Royals. Two years (maybe even three is what Colon may be asking for) at a guaranteed $7 or $8 million may not make much sense.

Colon always struck me as something of a warrior on the mound and I would think he is a guy the team could count on to give them all he had (assuming he is well fed, which may no longer be an easy task - sorry, couldn’t resist a cheap one there), but you have to wonder if age and particularly weight has caught up to the big guy for good.

Take the gamble or not? And at what price?

This entry was posted on Thursday, January 3rd, 2008 at 1:41 pm and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

13 Responses to “The Colon File”

gbewing says:

January 3rd, 2008 at 2:26 pm

He’s the perfect candidate for the 1 year deal- prove himself and cash in 1 last paycheck with a contender-
2 yrs tops- if 2 incentive laden based on ings pitched
JBOPP says:

January 3rd, 2008 at 2:55 pm

I would love this move. Shape it up exactly like Dotel and cash it in before the deadline for some mid-range prospects.
Chaim Mattis Keller says:

January 3rd, 2008 at 3:08 pm

The Royals should offer Colon one year with incentives, including a second year at club option.

Guaranteeing to pay an injured player’s salary for two years would be nuts.
GDubWing says:

January 3rd, 2008 at 4:02 pm

One year incentive laden deal based on IP with a mutual option for 2009. Base salary of 2 million for this year with 1 million more at 150 IP and another 1 million for 210 IP. 1 million more for and ERA under 3.5 @ 180 IP. Make the mutual option guaranteed at a 4 million base salary if two of the three incentives were met the previous year. Add another incentive in 2009 for 1 million more for 180 IP. This type of contract structure is something that the Royals should take a gamble on. If Colon’s a bust, he gets his two million for showing up. If He performs well, he gets paid well and the Royals get their #2 or #3 starter for two years. Let’s face it, Bannister is not a #2 starter and never will be. He’s dog gone good and has a #1 starters mind, just not the stuff. Not too many Greg Maddox’s out there these days. I hope ten years from now, I can put these two in the same sentence again.
Patek to Rojas to Mayberry says:

January 3rd, 2008 at 4:23 pm

Pitching depth is always a good thing, and I welcome it wholeheartedly. But let me play devil’s advocate for a minute, regarding the domino effect that might occur if Colon is signed.

First of all, we already have 41 players and need to DFA or trade one of them to get down to 40. Adding Colon means DFA’ing or trading yet another. In our “when 41 becomes 40″ discussion, we didn’t really reach a consensus; some feel Tupman should be the one to go; some say Smith; others say Costa. Most probably agree that Hudson would be the easiest one to pass through waivers unclaimed. Now we might need to DFA a second player, assuming Colon is signed to something other than a minor league contract (and I can’t see him signing a minor league contract unless that’s the best anyone will offer him). This second player to be DFAed basically doubles the likelihood that someone will be claimed on waivers by another team. Who should that second player be? Thoughts?

Secondly, unless Colon starts the season on the DL, he’s basically gotta be in the rotation.
(Perhaps the Royals will try to stash Colon on the DL like they did Runelvys Hernandez, for “conditioning reasons”…LOL.) Whose place in the rotation does he take? Signing Colon would basically mean that, barring injuries to Meche/Bannister/Greinke, there won’t be room for both a lefty and Luke Hochevar in the rotation.

One consideration is, if a given pitcher doesn’t make the rotation, does he make the club as a reliever, or does he not make the club at all…and if he doesn’t make the club at all, what happens to him? What to do with Hochevar is easy; he should still have 2 option years if I am not mistaken. He might benefit from a full season at AAA. For some reason, I suspect the Royals won’t hold back his development for too long if they feel he is ready to pitch at the ML level.

The fallout, as I see it, of Hochevar taking the #5 starter slot is that one of the lefty starting candidates DLR/Bale/possibly Musser does not make the club at all. Musser can be optioned to AAA; Bale can’t; DLR probably can’t, but I’m not sure whether he has an option remaining.

All the more reason why the Royals should be looking to use some of their surplus depth (if there is such a thing) to acquire a bat via a trade. We have LH pitching depth, utility IF depth, an extra 1B, and (admittedly weak) OF depth as trading chips.

If Colon is signed, and if all the main SP candidates make it through Spring Training unscathed in terms of health, it should make for some very simple roster decisions. Admittedly, it’s very early, but the fifth starter is Hochevar, DLR, or Bale, unless someone comes out of the blue and pitches his way onto the team.

I think Hochevar pretty much has his destiny in his own hands. I’m not saying it’s his job to lose, but if he pitches well in March, and if the Royals come to the decision that he doesn’t have much to gain from pitching a full season at AAA, and if there isn’t an overwhelming, tradition-fueled desire to have a lefty in the rotation, then why not Hochevar? Those are a lot of “ifs”, though. And perhaps it comes down to how well DLR pitches in March and whether he has any options remaining (does he, anyone)?

Thanks for letting me ramble.
Brandt says:

January 3rd, 2008 at 4:41 pm

I think this could be a good move. Looks like his strikeouts continued from his stats. The Royals could always use a strikeout pitcher. The only ones they have currently are Greinke and Meche as far the rotation goes. I wouldn’t mind a 1 or 2 year deal. There is not much left at all as far the FA market. I think Colon would be the best risk to take. I still also really hope a trade comes through with another bat.
Ryan Brown says:

January 3rd, 2008 at 6:20 pm

I’m all aboard with this signing.

I say 2 years at $2 million per year with incentives reaching up to $4.5-$5 million per year. We’re in a better financial situation with a potential 10-13 game winner than we are with Angel Berroa.

If we sign him, I vote to move Hochevar to the bullpen to start the season until someone inevitably goes down to injury. He could use the first month of the season to settle into a routine, then work his way into the rotation.
RollingWave says:

January 3rd, 2008 at 7:36 pm

if the price tag isn’t ridiculas then it’s a very good move.
Chief says:

January 4th, 2008 at 5:34 am

I’m not sure if this is really “breaking news” but the Star is reporting that KC signed Hideo Nomo to a minor league contract with an invitation to Spring Training.

I like this move for two reasons:

1. It gives us a low-risk, medium reward pitcher (and you can never have too much pitching).

2. It shows respect to Hideo Nomo, and that is very important in the Japanese culture. GMDM and Hillman are setting themselves up for future Japanese signings, because KC respects their players young and old.
Chief says:

January 4th, 2008 at 5:49 am

By the way, I have an idea for a future blog entry. How about analyzing the Royals based on who they lost (through FA, trades, and retirement), and who they gained (through FA, trades, and minor leaguers moving up).

What is the total improvement to the big-league club this year based on those changes?
kcghost says:

January 4th, 2008 at 5:53 am

I wouldn’t sign Colon to a two-year deal even if I was his mother. This reeks of a Reggie Sanders deal (two years pay for two months performance).
David says:

January 4th, 2008 at 6:33 am

I wouldn’t be super quick to dismiss a two year deal. If its a low enough base salary in each year, then it’d be worth it to get him and see if he’s back. Then, even if you dump him, you’re not losing too much. If he signs, say 2 years, $5 million base with incentives that can make it 2 years, $20 million then you have to sign him to that deal to keep him away from other teams.
Clark Fosler says:

January 4th, 2008 at 7:36 am

Chief - great point on the importance of considering Japanese culture and tradition with an eye towards future signings. I think we often forget that just because players from other cultures play in our country, it doesn’t mean they automatically adopt ‘American culture and beliefs’. Would have been nice to have Nomo in the late 90’s when the Royals were knocking the cover off the ball, wouldn’t it?

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