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Breaking Up With Shane Costa
There’s a lot of love in our neck of the woods for Shane Costa. But sometimes, for whatever reason, these things don’t work out. This is the look at a love affair and how it went wrong.
Costa was drafted in the second round of the 2003 draft after an impressive career at Cal State-Fullerton where he had three consecutive years where his OPS was higher than .950.
He began his Royals career in the Arizona Rookie League where he continued his hot hitting ways, batting .386/.444/.580 in 23 games before earning a promotion to High-A for a couple of games at the end of the year. He began 2004 at High-A and after a season where he hit .308/.364/.417, Baseball America ranked Costa as the seventh best prospect in the organization.
“A polished hitter, Costa has quick hands that allow him to turn pitches into line drives. The Royals want him to do a better job loading his hands in his swing. If he does that and starts to turn on more pitches, he could translate his strength into 20-25 homers per year.”
Obviously, that never happened. For a while it did look like he was on the right track. In 2005 at Double-A, he bumped his slugging percentage to a modest .448 and followed that up with his high water mark of .593 in Triple-A in 2006. But the 20+ home run power that Baseball America alluded to never developed. The most home runs he’s ever hit in a season was 13 (10 in Omaha and three in KC in ’06) and regressed to five home runs last year in 336 at bats split between Triple-A and the majors.
Depite the lack of power, Costa’s best seasons have come at the Triple-A level. 2006 was his best season where he hit .342/.398/.593 with Omaha in 199 at bats, but couldn’t come close to that kind of production for the Royals. He hit just .274/.304/.405 in 237 at bats spread over four separate appearances in Kansas City that summer.
Last year, Costa hit .326/.402/.502 for Omaha and at one point reached base in 46 consecutive games - an impressive streak no matter the league. But in three separate trips to Kansas City, he flopped, hitting just .223/.257/.301. There are plenty of opinions for the reason of Costa’s inability to transition from the minors to the majors. For example, he didn’t start in three consecutive games until September. Or how about the fact that he hit cleanup on a couple of occasions?
Costa has other flaws in his game - aside from his struggles at the major league level, including a below average arm that means he’s exclusively a left fielder. Trey Hillman has indicated he’ll use a rotation to fill the left field, first base and designated hitter spots and that figures to include Billy Butler, Ross Gload, Joey Gathright and Ryan Shealy. That means Costa (and my personal favorite, Justin Huber) is likely out of the mix.
Royals fans seem to be split on Costa. There’s one camp who thinks the Royals should just forget about him and move on and there’s another group who think he should get an honest chance to play everyday. Those who think he should get a chance also seem to think that Costa will be able to provide a solid contribution. I don’t know about that. There seems to be a little bit of the Backup Quarterback Syndrome going on here. You know the old saying, the most popular guy on the football team is the backup quarterback. For the Royals, it seems the most popular guy on the team is the fourth (or fifth) outfielder. It’s not surprising considering over the last couple of seasons the Royals have had a revolving door policy in the corner outfield that has included Emil Brown, Reggie Sanders, Joey Gathright, Esteban German and Aaron Guiel. Guiel received a ton of love from Royals fans, then Costa and now Gathright seems positioned to take over this role.
I understand the argument that pushed for Costa to get a chance. Why not give a fair shot to a player the Royals scouted, drafted and developed? But it seems the Royals had made up their minds on Costa long before the 2007 season. How else do we explain how he was used in his three turns on the Royals? You don’t bring up someone you think can help the team and sit him on the bench while using him in an irregular manner (the first Billy Butler fiasco is the exception.) If the Royals thought he had a future in Kansas City, they would have dropped him in left and let him play.
And now, the ship has sailed on Costa’s time with the Royals. With the acquisition of Jose Guillen to play right field and the supposed “rotation” that will take place in left, there’s no longer any room for Costa on this team.
It’s my opinion that Costa is doomed to the purgatory that is Quadruple-A: If he gets the at bats at Triple-A, he’ll be an All-Star in that league. But when he gets to the majors, he suffers as a role player.
Since he still has options remaining, Costa will return to Omaha for another summer, but this time he’ll fall further down the depth chart. It seems doubtful he’ll be burning up and down I-29 this year. Costa will play for Omaha, where he’ll hit somewhere in the neighborhood of .330/385/.500 and at some point, we’ll begin to wonder if it can ever work out between us. Unfortunately, it never will.
It’s time for us to find a new fourth outfielder to fall for.
Other Notes:
– We’ve taken forever to get through our 40-man roster review, and we’ll be wrapping it soon. But it seems like enough stuff is happening in camp, the remaining players will just have to be patient and wait for their time. Has this been a busy off-season or what?
– Apparently, there has been a miscommunication about Miguel Olivo’s role with the team. Or perhaps he was told his role, yet “misremembered.”
Is this for real? Olivo is saying all of the right things, meaning he says it’s up to the manager and he’ll do whatever he needs to do. But let’s not kid ourselves. This could get uncomfortable.
– The Royals have decided to work Luke Hochevar out of the bullpen and he will not be in the running for one of the spots at the back end of the rotation. The thinking here is this is a way for Hochevar - if he makes the team - to get acclimated to the major leagues. The stakes are incredibly high, so I can’t fault the Royals for taking a cautious route with Hochevar.
But I wonder if this is misguided logic. He threw 165 innings last year, so it’s not like the Royals have to be careful with his arm. Using the rule of 20%, he should be good for at least 190 innings. But if he pitches out of the pen for any amount of time, there’s no way he hits that number. In 10 starts last year in Triple-A, he struggled with a 5.12 ERA and a 6.9 K/9 IP rate. He’s probably not ready for the majors, so why not just return him to Omaha for some more starts?
– Today’s Official Dose Of Optimism comes courtesy of Royals.com and their story on Ryan Shealy. Apparently, he jacked around with his batting stance at the end of spring training last year and that is the reason behind his poor April last year. With something like a week before the season began, he decided to hit like Albert Pujols and do away with his stride. How freaking disturbing is that? What’s worse? The fact Shealy decided to expierament so late in camp, or the fact the Royals let him?
– Monday was the official reporting date for position players.
– I’m probably late on this, but BP author and dermatologist Rany Jazayerli has joined the blogging ranks. He’s currently listing his top 23 reasons to be a Royals fan right now. He has yet to answer the email about my rash.
– And friend of the Authority, Sam Mellinger is now posting a blog at the KC Star website. I guess since he won’t be chasing around Barry Bonds this spring, he’ll have some time on his hands. Seriously, Mellinger does a great job covering the MLB beat and this blog is a good way for him to distribute his knowledge. Bookmark it.
This entry was posted
on Tuesday, February 19th, 2008 at 5:49 am and is filed under Shane Costa, Player Profiles.
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16 Responses to “Breaking Up With Shane Costa”
February 19th, 2008 at 6:23 am
My fear on Shane Costa is that he is Matt Diaz v 2.0.
And you’ve got to think that Buddy is probably responsible for changing Shealy’s stride (see also: Buck, John). I seriously doubt that a player who is crushing it in spring training would decide to jack with his stride a week before the season started.
February 19th, 2008 at 6:42 am
I agree with Chris, but then again, even if Costa develops into a Diaz elsewhere I won’t lose that much (if any) sleep over it given the upside/flashes Teahen, DDJ and Gathright have. Also, Diaz at least produced during his brief stint in the Majors with the Royals. Costa has failed to put up comparable numbers during his call-ups. I guess Diaz was just pegged as a singles-hitting OF and was deemed expendable. That, and he turns 30 this year.
I agree that the Olivo situation is already awkward and has bad news written all over it if either him or Buck starts to struggle this year.
I also agree that sticking Hochevar in the pen to start the season is dumb. If he doesn’t crack the ML rotation, then stick him in Omaha to be a starter at the beginning of the season. And if he posts numbers like he did last year but we find ourselves needing another starter? Move Nunez/Bale/DLR/whoever the hell didn’t make our rotation that got put in the ‘pen into the starters role, and then call Hochevar up to fill the vacant relief spot. Voila - Hochevar gets a chance in AAA to merit a call-up as a starter while his innings can be monitored and he can still see time in the bigs.
I read that about Shealy the other day and laughed. Absolutely ridiculous. Let’s hope he stays healthy and produces this season - those “adjustments” produced nothing less than disastrous results last year.
February 19th, 2008 at 7:24 am
It’s time to be fair to Costa and give him to an organization that might give him a shot. There is nothing to be gained for the Royals or Costa by sending him back to Omaha.
Hochevar in the bullpen?? The good news just keeps pouring in. The braintrust is telling us that the best place for Hochevar’s development is pitching sporadically in KC rather than regularly in Omaha. Now had he pitched decently in Omaha I might have bought into this idea. But he didn’t, He was awful. It looks like the Royals are putting too much weight on the 12 September innings he hurled in the bigs. Either that or our bullpen is really awful.
February 19th, 2008 at 8:06 am
It seems to me that Costa’s inconsistent play may be a function of random duty, but yeah, I definitely won’t lose any sleep if he’s gone.
I don’t see how having two catchers that want to be #1 is a bad thing. I guess if they get into an actual fight, maybe… but I just don’t see much of a problem here.
Another issue with using Hoch in the ‘pen is that JDLR, Hudson, and Nunez are out of options. If Hoch doesn’t make the rotation out of Spring Training, we force our hand on making a decision on at least two of those guys if we use Hoch in the ‘pen.
I’m seeing a rotation of:
Meche
Bannister
Greinke
JDLR
Tomko
and a ‘pen of:
Soria
Yabuta
Mahay
Gobble
Bale
Peralta
Nunez
Which means we DFA Hudson. If we include Hoch in there, then we need to trade somebody (Gobble?). This also means that Braun, Davies, Musser, and none of the non-roster guys (Duckworth, Maroth, Tsao, Nomo, Wright, Lawrence, Colon, etc…) make the big league club.
One thing I’m excited about… did anybody notice how many viable options we have? So much better than the last decade it’s ridiculous. Our AAA staff is going to be nails - GO ROYALS!
February 19th, 2008 at 8:35 am
Jonathan - I’m going to have to disagree with you on Diaz. His numbers in his year with the Royals are very comparable with Costa’s in his first year up. (281/323/404)
Considering that in the two seasons since, Diaz has posted these lines:
327/364/475
338/368/497
I DO lose sleep over Diaz being let go and WOULD lose sleep if Costa left and did the same thing for someone else. The Royals missed on Diaz because they never gave him any real chance to play. That’s why they thought of him as a nearing 30 expendable singles hitter.
Like Huber, Brazell and Diaz, Costa had not gotten a real chance in the majors either. I doubt he will develop into a Diaz and the time to find out has passed with the Guillen signing, but the Royals had ample opportunity to find out over the past three losing seasons (about all those guys) and did not utilize it.
That’s why Matt Diaz is platooning in left for a contender and the Royals just spent $36 million on a free agent outfielder.
February 19th, 2008 at 8:37 am
When you read stuff like that bit about Shealy last year, it should make us all wonder HOW THE HELL did Barnett manage to keep his job?
Seriously, was he able to help ANYBODY on the offensive side of the ball?
Think back to spring of 07 - we all thought the team would be avg hitting, and not so good pitching. It turned out that we were the opposite - avg pitching and God-awful hitting. Where was the accountability for that?
February 19th, 2008 at 8:45 am
Barry Bonds having some time on his hands???
Seriously, he’s going to the east coast, he’s going to Tampa Bay. LOL
http://barrybondstrial.blogspot.com/
February 19th, 2008 at 10:22 am
Clark - I scratched my head when we traded Diaz (for what? A player to be named later who turned out to be a no-name arm?) and hate seeing him succeed on another team, but I just chalk it up to another poor evaluation/handling of talent by Baird and Bell (Bell handled Diaz, not Pena, correct?) I agree with you that maybe it’s because he didn’t play everyday, and I too am a believer that the Costas/Diazes/Hubers/etc. of the world need to play every day to get a fair evaluation. But at the same time, what’s to say Diaz would have helped us win ball games? He IS a singles hitter. While a .330 avg lets you “get away” with being a singles hitter, he is NOT an upgrade over Guillen. (Yes, he would have been welcomed over Emil. *sigh* I’m focusing more on the net effect of his absence as I look at our 08 roster.) And what’s to say that if he played everyday for the horrible KC teams in 05 and 06 he’d still blossom like he has in Atlanta? Losing 100 games and batting between Mientkiewicz and Berroa isn’t exactly a fostering environment ala playing everyday for a perennial contender and being protected by the Jones’s and Francoeur.
Would he (or possibly Costa for that matter) have helped us playing everyday the past two years? Yes. Would we still have lost 96+ games? Yes. And in my opinion, based off what we’ve seen/can expect/hope for out of Teahen, DDJ, Guillen and Gathright, (D, offense and base running all considered) I am at peace with missing out on Diaz. Now if our offense is as anemic this year as in 05-07 and Diaz hits .320/15/70 again, I might start losing sleep. And then shave my head if Costa goes and slugs somewhere else.
February 19th, 2008 at 2:42 pm
I would call the analysis of Diaz by the Royals as not a misevaluation, but a virtual lack of an evaluation. Pretty much the same for Huber. I think we are essentially saying the same thing in that regard.
I would point out, however, that with 19 homers in 600 at-bats over the last two seasons that Diaz, while perhaps not a slugger, is something more than a ’singles hitter’. I could see a platoon of him and Gathright (or say a Jenkins or that kind of guy), possibly equally the production that the Royals will be getting from Guillen at a fraction of the price.
February 19th, 2008 at 3:02 pm
Put me solidly in the “Free Shane Costa” camp. AAA numbers aren’t meaningless, but a lot of good players take a few hundred at-bats to turn the corner in the Majors. The time to put Costa in LF and see what he could do was last year, when instead the Royals went with the offensive juggernaut and defensive sideshow that is Emil Brown. Now the picture is more crowded, especially with Teahen’s trade value being so much lower than his actual value at the moment. But still, the guy is probably a .300/.370/.450 major league hitter at the least. He deserves a real chance to prove it.
February 19th, 2008 at 3:04 pm
Consider this: Shane Costa has had about as much ML experience as Alex Gordon. Granted, he’s much older and not a prospect anymore, but if it takes awhile for even a premium talent to settle in, why slap on the “quadruple-A-player” tag so fast?
February 19th, 2008 at 3:22 pm
Clark, great use of “misremembered” in your column. LOL
I think Hochevar is in a good place in the bullpen. MInnesota placed Johan Santana in the bullpen before placing him in the rotation. How’d that work out?
February 19th, 2008 at 6:23 pm
Everyone points to the logjam in LF, and how we’re not giving the young guys enough ABs. Hmm, was playing Gload in OF so much the last few years really worth it? Does Gload have more power than all the young guys we haven’t given a chance? Was he that much better defensively? Let’s hope Hillman can avoid this virulent strain of Buddyitis.
February 20th, 2008 at 6:57 am
ZD, you are comparing an apple to an orange, Santana HAD to stay on the Twins 25 man roster for all of 2000 because he was a Rule 5 draftee in December 1999 by the Marlins who promptly traded him to the Twins. To protect Santana they used him as a long reliever, but did give him 5 starts in 30 appearances posting a 6.49 ERA in 83 IP’s. In 2001 when they could send him down they did and he ended up splitting time between the minors and the majors and posted a 4.74 ERA in 43 IP’s.
Hochevar, who will be 24, is a different animal altogether. He has not been successful in the minors and he does not have the kind of pitching staff that will permit you to protect him. Only on a team with the overall lack of pitching depth like the Royals would Hochevar even be considered for the big club.
I have no problem with prospects getting battle tested in relief before taking on the duties of a starter. The problem is Hochevar has not demonstrated that he is ready for even that task.
February 20th, 2008 at 7:41 am
Nathan- I’m just going with my gut on Costa. To take your Gordon/Costa analogy a little further… Yes, Gordon struggled last year, but even while he was struggling, we could see moments where it would all come together. Gordon’s problem was for every good thing that happened, three things went the wrong way - there was no consistency. With Costa, I’ve never seen anything that would tell me he can be an everyday OF.
Zack - I’ll echo kcgohost and say the Santana-to-the-bullpen thing in Minnesota was out of necessity. If Hochevar is going to be a starter, he needs to start.
Big Lee - Gload wasn’t the problem in the OF. He only played 53 innings in left.
February 26th, 2008 at 7:19 am
The only way you can truly evaluate guys like Costa, Huber, Diaz, Shealy, Gathright, etc, is to stick them in the lineup for at least a two month stretch, playing everyday which allows the league to see them, get a book on them, and then see if the player can adjust to the book.
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