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Royals Pitching Depth: Part III - The Next Generation

We are back with our third and final installment on the pitching depth throughout the Royals’ system. You can click back here to find the first five pitchers I believe will make it to the majors and also catch up with the numbers six through ten guys here.

This column is dealing the some pitchers that are buried pretty deep down in the system, so projecting when and even if they will make the majors is hardly a scientific endeavour. If nothing else, these are names worth filing away and checking in on a couple of times per year. Let’s get a look at the future:

11. Brent Fisher, LHP, 21 in August (35.1 IP, 28 K, 14 BB, 5.09 ERA in Low A) - A strained rotator cuff pretty much ended Fisher’s 2007 season before it started. His 2006 campaign, however, was outstanding as Brent struck out 98 hitters in just 68 innings for the Arizona Royals, holding batters to a .171 average. PROJECTION: For a strikeout guy, Fisher really does not throw that hard, topping out around 91 mph. He uses a deceptive delivery and good curve to get the job done and was in the process of adding a changeup. Assuming Fisher’s shoulder is fine, expect him to climb the minors one rung at a time: ending up at the back of the 2012 starting rotation.

12. Aaron Hartsock, RHP, 24 (75.2 IP, 51 K, 26BB, 2.62 ERA in Low A) - Yeah, I know. A 24 year old in Low-A ball does not an exciting prospect make. However, there is nothing exciting about middle relievers and every team needs about five of them. Hartsock made 42 appearances, all in relief, last season for Burlington and posted a solid WHIP of 1.18. That follows on the heals of a 2006 campaign in Idaho Falls that saw Aaron strike out 43 batters in 46 innings, holding them to a .202 batting average. PROJECTION: So what if Hartsock likely won’t sniff the majors until he’s 28? That’s eight years younger than Ron Mahay and about the time Joel Peralta and Jimmy Gobble are free agents. Like I said, nothing exciting here, but everyone needs guys like Hartsock in their pen.

13. Greg Holland, RHP, 22 (33.2 IP, 37K, 15 BB, 3.48 ERA in Rookie) - The 10th round pick in last summer’s draft out of Western Carolina, Holland was the closer at Idaho Falls and will likely retain that role at every level on his journey through the minors. If the strikeouts per inning stay where they are, Holland could move at an acclerated pace. PROJECTION: Holland is another career reliever, but with the chance to be a closer in the majors. He’s the kind of guy who the Royals might try to push through a couple of levels per year if he continues to enjoy success and hence might leapfrog guys on this list and even the Part II list. Is this the closer that replaces Joakim Soria or the closer that replaces the closer that replaced Joakim Soria?

Okay, so far on this list, I have given you a starter with a bad shoulder and two relievers. I promised you hope, here it comes.

14. Daniel Duffy, LHP, 19 (37 IP, 63 K, 17 BB, 1.45 ERA in Rookie) - That’s right, TWO strikeouts per inning for Arizona last year and no home runs allowed. His fastball already touches 95 mph and is likely to amp up even higher as Duffy matures. You have all the standard high school pitcher problems (uneven mechanics, inconistent command), but you also have a major league fastball with solid curveballs and sliders. PROJECTION: Duffy is four years away, maybe even five. He will still just be 24 years old in the spring of 2013 and likely on his way to being the team’s number three starter by then.

15. Matt Mitchell, RHP, 19 (55 IP, 72 K, 25 BB, 1.80 ERA in Rookie) - Although just a 14th round pick, the Royals gave Mitchell a $100,000 signing bonus and he earned just about every penny of it in his first professional season. More polished with less velocity (91-92 mph) than Duffy. Hey, BaseballAmerica compared his delivery to that of Curt Schilling’s: that HAS to be worth something. PROJECTION: He might beat Duffy to the majors just because he has better control starting out. Kind of reminds me a little of Brian Bannister with a little more juice (not the illegal kind, the good kind). Middle of the rotation potential who could be there by 2012 or 2013.

16. Sam Runion, RHP, 19 (51 IP, 51 K, 17 BB, 5.82 ERA in Rookie) - What do you think of a high school pitcher who is already 6′4″ tall and weight 220 pounds? The Royals thought enough of him to make him their second round pick last summer. While Runion did not put up the gaudy numbers that Mitchell and Duffy did, his strikeouts and control were pretty decent. PROJECTION: Runion likes has as much or even more upside than Duffy, although there was some talk prior to the draft that he might profile out more as a reliever. Youth is a marvelous thing as Runion will not turn 25 until November of 2013. The number five guy in 2014 on his way to the number two starter in 2016? It could happen.

Some of you who pay attention to the minors may be looking for the likes of Peter Hodge Nielsen, Matt Kniginyzky, Clegg Snipes, Dane Secott, Jason Godin, Harold Mozingo, Josh Cribb or a number of other names. Frankly, you could take that group and swap them in the number six through 16 spots and possibly be as accurate as I have been with my list. If the minor leagues in general are not a scientific endeavour, then predicting young pitching may simply be witchcraft.

Still, for fun, I’ll quickly finish up this series by taking a stab at how the Royals’ rotation will shake out in the future. I will preface this by saying the rotations shown (particularly 2008) are the five pitchers that have the most starts, not the opening day groups.

2008 Meche, Bannister, Greinke, Bale, Hochevar
2009 Meche, Greinke, Bannister, Hochevar, Davies
2010 Meche, Greinke, Hochevar, Soria, Cortes
2011 Meche, Greinke, Cortes, Soria, Hochevar
2012 Cortes, Greinke, Soria, Wood, Hardy
2013 Cortes, Greinke, Soria, Wood, Duffy

I don’t see Meche coming back after his contract expires in 2011. I do see the Royals getting a couple of extra years past free agency out of Greinke, probably as a result of a long term deal done sometime in the next 18 months. I don’t think Hochevar stays past free agency, but I do think Soria will. Anyway, it’s something to think about as we wait for opening day.

This entry was posted on Tuesday, March 18th, 2008 at 11:20 am and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.