MVN - Most Valuable Network

Know Your Enemy: Chicago White Sox

It’s time to cruise around the AL Central to look at how the Royals matchup with the competition. Beginning today and through the rest of the week, Clark and I will each take a division rival and see how the Kansas City Royals compare.

We’ll begin with the Chicago White Sox. Last year, it was a dogfight to say out of the Central Division basement. Could this be the year the Royals overtake Chicago?

Here’s how the White Sox breakdown and how they compare with the Royals.

Lineup

This is the current White Sox lineup according to the Rotoworld depth chart:

C - A.J. Pierzynski
1B - Paul Konerko
2B - Alexei Ramirez
3B - Joe Crede
SS - Orlando Cabrera
LF - Nick Swisher
CF -Jerry Owens
RF - Jermaine Dye
DH - Jim Thome

That leaves out potential starters Juan Uribe, Carlos Quentin and Josh Fields.

Let’s go around the horn…

Pierzynski pisses off everyone including the bat boys and the lemonade guys, and posted a career low in slugging percentage and just missed a career low in OBP by a point. He’s caught a ton of innings in his career and looks like he’s showing signs of breaking down.

Konerko has a terrible first two months where hit .229/.312/.397 with seven home runs, but rebounded to hit .273/.369/.535 with 24 home runs from June 1 to the end of the year. After a nice peak from 2004 to 2006, it looks like the beginning of the end for Konerko. But he’s still a nice option for the next couple of years.

Fields should start at third, but with Kenny Williams and Ozzie Guillen in charge, you never know what’s going to happen. Fields is a flyball hitter with loads of power. He’ll be 25 this year, so he should be entering his prime. It would be a shame (for him, not the Royals) if he started 2008 in Triple-A.

Cabrera comes to the Sox from the Angels in exchange for Jon Garland. At age 33, he had the best year of his career in 2007, posting a career high .345 OBP, thanks in large part to a .325 BABIP. That kind of BABIP is unsustainable for a ground ball hitter like Cabrera so when he falls back to league average in that category, look for his OBP to do the same.

At the time of the Swisher trade, I wasn’t all that impressed, but now I’d like to reverse my thinking. With a career .361 OBP to go along with .825 OPS, he’s an on base guy with some nice pop. And he should only see his offensive performance improve away from Oakland and in his new home of Chicago. Solid pick up.

Owens is the kind of guy they seem to fall in love with in Chicago. You know, a no power, low OBP speed player - kind of like Podsednik. He’s more suited in a fourth outfielder/late inning defensive replacement role.

Dye had a horrible first half: He was hitting just .214/.271/.402 at the All-Star Break. He rallied a bit but still suffered through the worst full season of his career. Dye suffered some injury problems early in his career with the Royals and Oakland and will be 34 this season. He seems like a prime candidate to break down.

Thome is Thome. What can you say? Sure the guy has been around forever, but as long as he’s healthy, he’s good for an OPS above .900. And he still crushes right handed pitching. There’s really no reason to bet against him.

Last season, the White Sox were dead last in the American League in runs (693), batting average (.246) and on base percentage (.318). Blame for such under achievement could be spread around - from slow starts by Dye and Konerko to a supporting cast that just wasn’t that good to begin with. By removing Uribe (who was placed on waivers last week and then pulled back) and Scott Podsednik from the lineup and replacing them with Cabrera and Swisher, they’re automatically much better. And if they can figure out a way to keep Fields in the lineup, and move Swisher to center to put Quentin in left, they would be even more potent.

Either way, this is a team that should be able to score some runs. For starters, they play in one of the most run friendly parks in baseball. And second, there’s just no way their team OBP will be below .330 this year.

The Sox legitimately have five guys in that lineup who can hit 30 or more bombs. That’s scary. But the power guys like Dye, Konerko and Thome are old and can be considered injury risks. If the Sox can move Crede and play Fields everyday, they’ll be rewarded and Swisher, moving from the pitchers park in Oakland, could have a career year.

Analysis

There are a ton of question marks surrounding this lineup, but the same could be said about the Royals. But it’s important to note the players on the Royals who had down years (Teahen, Gordon, DeJesus) are all in their primes. While the players on the White Sox who struggled last season are past theirs. Both teams should improve from last year’s output.

As far as power potential, the Sox have it in spades. Five players with 30 HR potential in Chicago? I don’t see a single Royal hitting that figure. But the Royals have taken steps to improve their on base percentage. And if they can bump their contact rate, they should be improved with the Sox in scoring more runs.

Injuries are the key factor here. But since it’s unfair to assume injuries will happen, we have to go with what we know. The White Sox with their lineup math (additions of Swisher, Quentin and Cabrera along with a full season of Fields minus Uribe and Podsednik) have made greater strides. The White Sox lineup outperforms the Royals this season.

Rotation

Here’s how they look heading into the opener.

Javier Vazquez
Mark Buehrle
Gavin Floyd
Jose Contreras
John Danks

Last year, Vazquez had one of his finer seasons, posting a 3.74 ERA and posting a strikeout rate of 8.85 K/9 IP. He’s been incredibly durable over his career, starting between 32 and 34 games each season since 2000. It’s a stretch to expect a repeat performance in 2008, but he’s still a quality pitcher.

Buehrle is one of those guys - like Brian Bannister - who confounds guys like me. He’s a touch and feel kind of pitcher, meaning he doesn’t strikeout enough guys (5.15 K/9 IP last year) and gives up enough line drives and fly balls to be dangerous.

Contreras is 36 (right) and has seen his strikeout rate tumble from 9.13 K/9 IP his first season in the league to last year’s 5.38 K/9 IP. And his velocity is down as well. His average fastball dropped from 92.9 mph in 2005 to 90.1 mph last year.

The young starters are intriguing. Floyd has never been able to get his control right at the major league level and owns a career 1.64 WHIP. He finally cut down on walks late last season, but countered that by allowing too many basehits. And then there’s the fact that a good number of his flyballs - 16.4% to be exact - land in the seats. He has the tools, but has never been anywhere close to consistent in the majors. If he ever puts it together, he could be a good one. But at this point in his career, few think that will ever happen.

Danks struggled in their first taste of big league action, but the Sox stuck with him for 26 starts last year. Like Floyd, Danks allows far too many base runners (154 WHIP last year) and is prone to giving up the home run. The Sox see Danks as a soft tossing lefty - like Buehrle - so they will keep them apart in the rotation.

Analysis

This is difficult to call. Vazquez is a solid starter, but like Gil Meche isn’t really number one material. And like I said, Buehrle sort of reminds me of Bannister, but with a longer track record. In terms of raw talent on both staffs, I’d give the edge to Zack Greinke, but he hasn’t been consistent enough over the course of his career.

Of course, the Royals still have yet to settle on their number four and number five starters, but I’m willing to bet that their guys will outpitch Contreras and/or Danks and Floyd.

It seems like there are a ton of similarities on both staffs and maybe I’m going with my heart here, but I like the Royals front three better than the White Sox front three. On the final two spots in the rotations, I’ll chicken out and call a push. I do realize I’m saying it’s possible I’d take Brett Tomko over Contreras.

Edge (slightly) to the Royals.

Bullpen

The Sox seem to be subscribing to the Royals method from around eight years ago by acquiring hard throwers who have no clue where the ball is going once it leaves their hand. Everyone in their bullpen throws heat, averaging greater than 92 mph with their fastballs, but man are they wild. And that’s not even including Andy Sisco, who was reassigned to minor league camp last week.

Check out these walk rates from 2007 per 9 innings:

Mike MacDougal - 7.02
Matt Thornton - 4.15
Nook Logan - 3.55
Bobby Jenks - 1.80
Scott Linebrink - 3.20
Octavio Dotel - 3.52

The supposed key signings from this winter were Scott Linebrink and Octavio Dotel, who are supposed to act as setup men for the closer Bobby Jenks. We all know about Dotel. Decent enough pitcher who was good enough for the Royals for Dayton Moore to flip him for Kyle Davies at the deadline. But he’s more fragile than Waterford Crystal and then he threw only eight more innings the rest of the season. The good news is, the Sox signed him for two years. Good luck with that.

Linebrink is one of those guys who got a fat contract based on decent numbers from a couple of seasons ago. In 2004 and 2005 he won a total of 15 games and posted an ERA of 2.14 and 1.83 respectively, pitching for the Padres. Don’t general managers look past ERA and Wins? This isn’t fantasy baseball. A closer look at the numbers reveals a pitcher whose strikeout rate has declined three consecutive seasons - from a high of 8.89 K/9 IP in 2004 to last year’s 6.40 K/9 IP. Combine that with a rising walk rate and a home run rate that has doubled over the last four years, and you just committed $19 million over four years to a pitcher well entrenched in the decline phase of his career.

Of the remaining pitchers, Thorton should have a rebound year. Last season, he walked 26, but a quarter of those were intentional so his control numbers are a bit misleading. He’s got a power arm and can strikeout about a batter an inning. He should be a leading candidate to move into the setup role when Linebrink continues his decline and Dotel visits the DL.

Closer Jenks is about the only sure thing in this bullpen. Last season he improved his control, but lost some of his strikeouts. Still, hitters could only tune him up to an average of .197 and at one point, he retired 41 consecutive batters. The guy is tough.

Analysis

The Sox like to think they improved their bullpen, but that’s really unlikely. Last year’s bullpen ERA was 5.47 and despite all of their hard throwers, they were last in the league in strikeouts. I expect more of the same this year.

The Royals bullpen has been knocked around this spring, but there is enough variety out there that I have to believe that once the season begins and they fit into their roles, they’ll come around. The only player I would take from the Sox bullpen is Jenks. But since the Royals are going to use Soria as the closer for the season, I’d grade the closers as a push.

Overall, the bullpen edge goes to the Royals.

Final Analysis

Unlike last year, this Chicago team will score some runs. The problem is, while they will have several nights where they plate seven or eight, their pitching is just as likely to give up nine or ten. They’ll try to pound their opponents into submission, but their pitching will confine them to afterthought status in the Central.

While the Sox have the bats to climb out of the statistical offensive cellar and leap ahead of the Royals, but the Royals have the arms to outlast the Sox. The prediction here is the Sox will hit slightly better than the Royals, but Kansas City will have the stronger rotation and bullpen.

The edge in pitching is enough that it gives the Royals the overall advantage.

The Royals finish ahead of the White Sox in the Central.

This entry was posted on Sunday, March 23rd, 2008 at 8:55 pm and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.