MVN - Most Valuable Network

Know Your Enemy: Cleveland Indians

Last year’s division winner is up next as we compare the Royals to their division rivals. The Indians, much more so than the Detroit Tigers, are the team that should keep Royals’ fans up at night.

The simple fact is that not only are the Indians going to be very good this season, they will likely be good for the next five years. Really, really good if they can somehow resign C.C. Sabathia. Unlike the Tigers, who will be faced with replacing Rodriguez, Sheffield, Ordonez, Guillen, Rogers and Todd Jones in the next two to four years, the Indians might well trot out basically the same lineup for the foreseeable future.

The Lineup
C - Victor Martinez
1B - Ryan Garko
2B - Asdrubal Cabrera
SS - Jhonny Peralta
3B - Casey Blake
LF - Jason Michaels/David Dellucci
CF - Grady Sizemore
RF - Franklin Gutierrez
DH - Travis Hafner

Victor Martinez sports a career line of .301/.373/.505. He has hit 20 or more home runs in three of his four full major league seasons. The one year Victor did not hit twenty (he had 16), he had an on-base percentage of .391. Martinez has also played in 141 or more games in each of the last four seasons. While not considered a premier defensive backstop, Martinez did gun down 30% of opposing baserunners last year. Basically, he’s as good as Jorge Posada and seven years younger.

There is some thought that Martinez might end up at first base, but given that Ryan Garko hit .289/.359/.483 with 21 homers in his first full major league season that move will likely be delayed. Already 27 years old, Garko is a late starter and somewhat lost in the shuffle of all the good hitters on this team, but he is more than solid.

Cabrera looked good late in 2007 (.283/.354/.421) after simmering in the high minors for three seasons. He can play short or third if needed and might be good enough defensively to force a swap of positions between himself and Jhonny Peralta. Not an All-Star by any means and probably not likely to top the 2007 numbers in a full season of work, Cabrera is backed up by veteran Jamey Carroll and one time phenom Josh Barfield.

Speaking of Peralta, he bounced back from a subpar sophmore season with a very solid 21 homer campaign in 2007. Okay defensively, although his range is in question, Jhonny’s biggest fault in the field is not being Omar Vizquel (who is?). A big strikeout guy (298 over the last two years), Peralta has limitations, but he’s not asked to carry this offense and has enough pop to make opposing pitchers pay attention.

Casey Blake has hit 17 or more home runs in each of the past five seasons and hits ninth most nights for the Indians. They keep wanting Andy Marte to take Blake’s job, but it probably won’t be this year.

Grady Sizemore has played in 482 games over the last three years (that’s four less than is possible), hit 124 doubles, 27 triples, 74 home runs and stolen 77 bases. Although his average and slugging numbers slipped a tad in 2007, his on-base percentage went up to .390: 21 points above his career average. Like Peralta, he strikes out a ton (155 times last year), but Grady also walked 101 times. Oh yeah, he’s all of 25 years old.

The Indians will be looking for Franklin Gutierrez to take hold of their right field job and own it for about the next five years. In parttime duty last year, Gutierrez hit .266/.318/.472 with 13 homers. Another guy who is not afraid to swing and miss (77 K’s in 301 plate appearances), Franklin has a lot to prove yet at age 25.

Leftfield will be a platoon of Jason Michaels and David Dellucci, with Ben Francisco helping out as both of the formers are likely to miss time due to injuries. If you take Michaels and Dellucci at their best, that’s a formidable tandem. If you take them at recent perfermance levels..well, Grady Sizemore is a helluva centerfielder.

You might have heard of Travis Hafner. In a down 2007, Hafner posted an OPS of .836 and hit 24 home runs: both would have led the Royals. For his career, the 31 year old mountain has a line of 290/398/552. Bill James projects a rebound in 2008 to those sort of numbers. As an added bonus, Travis has walked 202 times the past two seasons.

Analysis
Last year, the Indians were 6th in runs scored, plating 105 more than the Royals. They were fourth in OPS and 5th in on-base percentage, while Kansas City was 14th and 13th in those categories. They stack up well against lefthanders and righthanders, finishing 5th in OPS in the A.L. against both.

Here’s a fun stat for you: the Indians were actually 12th in OPS with runners in scoring position, while the Royals were 7th. Yet, in just 44 more at-bats, Cleveland scored 25 more runs in those situations. Why? Forty-three Indian homers with RISP versus 25 Royal dingers.

This is a GOOD offensive ballclub. You can give the Royals an edge in rightfield and second base. If you assume Alex Gordon will improve and Mark Teahen will bounce back, then KC could also be better in left and at third base. However, the other gaps are huge: DeJesus is a nice player, Sizemore is a star. Butler will be something, but Hafner is better right now. Peralta is not great, but light years better than Pena at the plate. Catcher, first base? Let’s not talk about it. Advantage Indians, by a sizeable margin.

Rotation
C.C Sabathia
Fausto Carmona
Paul Byrd
Jake Westbrook
Cliff Lee

I love C.C. Sabathia. He might be my favorite non-Royal right now. Detractors want to call him fat, but yet he fields his position, throws flame deep into ballgames and by all accounts is a great guy. He has started 219 games in seven years, pitched more than 180 innings in each of those seven seasons and won 100 games. In the past two seasons, Sabathia has increased his strikeout rate and cut his walk rate almost in half on his way to posting 3.22 and 3.21 earned run averages. Still just 27 years old, the only question with Sabathia is whether the workload might some day catch up to him (he did throw 241 innings in 2007).

While there are few questions regarding Sabathia, there are many regarding Fausto Carmona. The 24 year old’s 3.06 ERA last season in 215 innings was the best he posted since A ball, which makes you wonder if he’s really that good or due for a correction. Carmona strikes out less than six hitters per nine innings and was never a big strikeout guy in the minors, so it’s easy to be skeptical. However, he may have ‘figured it out’ last season and may well be just as good this year. After all, somebody actually does have to be the next Tom Glavine.

The rest of the rotation is solid, but certainly not flashy. Paul Byrd is closing in on 95 years of age and has started 31 games in each of the last three seasons, throwing 575 innings and allowing 75 homers. Last year, he gave up 239 hits and struck out just 88 batters. The end has to be near for this former Royal.

Jake Westbrook is a solid number four guy; having turned into something of an American League Jeff Suppan (the good Suppan from the NL, not the guy you remember from Kansas City). After three straight 200+ inning seasons, Westbrook broke down some last year, but is likely to bounce back and post a 4.30-4.40 ERA in 190 or so innings.

Cliff Lee has gone from very good in 2005 to serviceable in 2006 to awful in 2007, but somehow managed to land the number five spot in the rotation. His strikeout rate is in freefall and he serves up home runs at a generous pace, which never seems to work out very well. The Indians have Laffey and Sowers in AAA and Lee will probably not survive May if he continues to decline.

Analysis
Last season, Cleveland starters were first in the AL in ERA, 3rd in WHIP and 2nd in K/BB ratio. The Royals’ rotation was 11th, 12th and 12th in those categories. However, unlike the offense where I think Cleveland will be better than 2007, I suspect their rotation will be worse. After Sabathia, you could easily predict a decline in production from the two through four guys.

By comparision, the Royals’ rotation might well be better with a full season of Zack Greinke and a lack of Odalis Perez. Neither team is likely to be very good at the number five spot, so call that one a wash. As much as I love Gil Meche, C.C. Sabathia is better and Westbrook is likely to be better than John Bale over the course of a full season. I’m going to say Brian Bannister will be better than Paul Byrd and that Zack Greinke might be every bit as good as Fausto Carmona.

Even with my healthy dose optimism, there is an edge to the Indians here, but not a huge one.

The Bullpen
Neither team has completely figured out the last couple of spots of the pen, so we’ll deal with just the main guys here.

Closer - Joe Borowski
Setup - Rafael Betancourt
Setup - Masa Kobayashi
Others - Rafael Perez

Joe Borowski posted a WHIP of 1.47 last year, an ERA of 5.07 and still saved 45 of 53 games. He will get close to a strikeout per game, but was much more hittable last season than in previous campaigns. It is interesting that the two dominant teams in this division have closers who really should not scare anyone (Todd Jones and Borowski). What you can say about Joe is that he simply gets the job done.

Now, Rafael Betancourt does strike fear in batters. Last season, he allowed just 51 hits in 79 innings of work and struck out 80 with just nine walks. This is Betancourt’s sixth season and he has been great in three and decent in the other two. He averages almost exactly one strikeout per inning and has a career WHIP of just 1.03. He’s good, plain and simple.

Like the Royals, Cleveland turned to Japan for bullpen help in signing Masa Kobayashi, who saved 194 games in seven seasons. Masa’s hits and walks per nine innings jumped last season and his strikeouts were down, so there are certainly some questions here. The Indians, like the Royals, are banking on the pattern of success enjoyed by previous Japanese relievers.

Rafael Perez had a very nice year for the Indians last season, his first in the majors after four years of starting in the minors. His numbers are a lot like those of Betancourt, so he brings a third arm to the table in bridging the gap to Borowski.

Analysis
Even if Kobayashi falters, the Indians have Betancourt and Perez in front of Borowski, so they would seem to be in pretty good shape. Last season, the Indians bullpen was fourth in ERA, the Royals were 6th. They were 5th in WHIP, the Royals were 7th. They were 1st in K/BB while KC was 4th.

Now, the Royals’ bullpen is drastically different this season and the Indians have pretty much the same unit except for the addition of Kobayashi. I would definitely prefer Joakim Soria closing my games over Joe Borowski and considering that Scott Elarton is competing for the final bullpen spot for the Indians, one is compelled to give the Royals an edge in bullpen depth. The setup guys for Cleveland are markedly superior to Yabuta, Mahay and Gobble for the Royals.

All things being equal, let’s call this area a draw.

Final Analysis
These posts get long, so we don’t spend a lot of time on defense and intangibles, but the Royals are a better defensive ballclub and without Buddy Bell in charge are likely to be closer to even footing in the strategery category.

The Indians are good and young and did win 96 games last season. It is hard for me to see them not winning at least 90 again this year, even with a projected decline in their starting rotation. Whatever they lose in pitching effectiveness might easily be made up if Travis Hafner and Grady Sizemore return to their 2006 levels of performance.

Right there is the biggest difference between these two clubs: the Royals are banking on two unproven second year guys (Gordon and Butler) to be stars, while the Indians are looking for two established All-Stars (Sizemore and Hafner) to simply rebound from slightly down years.

Bottom line, I think the Indians edge the Tigers this year for the division and, if they resign Sabathia, might well rule the AL Central for the next three years. The positive side of this analysis is that the Royals of 2008 remind me a lot of the Indians of 2005. Next year’s analysis will likely reveal the gap between these two teams has narrowed from 17 or 18 games to 9 or 10 games. Once you get that close, anything can happen.

This entry was posted on Tuesday, March 25th, 2008 at 6:57 am and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.