MVN - Most Valuable Network

Know Your Enemy: Detroit Tigers

There was a time when the Detroit Tigers were in the exact same position of our Kansas City Royals. But through a series of quality drafts, gutsy free agent signings and blockbuster trades general manager Dave Dombrowski has built his team into a winner. They’ve established the blueprint for success and they’re a strong favorite to win the AL Central.

How do they stack up against the Royals?

Lineup

C - Ivan Rodriguez
1B - Carlos Guillen
2B - Placido Polanco
SS - Edgar Renteria
3B - Miguel Cabrera
LF - Jacque Jones/Marcus Thames
CF - Curtis Granderson
RF - Magglio Ordonez
DH - Gary Sheffield

Last year the Tigers scored 5.48 runs per game, second only to the Yankees in run production. And when you subtract Sean Casey, Craig Monroe and Brandon Inge while adding Renteria and Cabrera, it seems like this team is poised of an offensive explosion. Let’s see…

Rodriguez is a 36 year old catcher. That’s kind of all that needs to be said. Anyway, a closer look reveals a hitter who has seen his isolated power drop every season since 2000 and his slugging percentage has fallen from .510 in his first year in Detroit in 2004 to last season’s .420 mark. And there’s his well-documented aversion to taking a walk. Last season I-Rod walked in just 1.7% plate appearances, a number that would depress Angel Berroa. Oh, he’s also hitting more ground balls than ever before. Ugh.

Moving Guillen to first is a good move by the Tigers in that he was losing his range at short and his bat requires that he play everyday. Offensively, he doesn’t have the power you’d like from a first baseman, but he has plenty of cover. He was kind of been playing over his head from 2004 to 2006 with a BABIP north of .350 all three seasons and he finally came back to Earth last year. He’s not going to hit much more than 20 home runs if that, but he should hit around .295 and get on base at a .365 clip. Solid.

Polanco was finally healthy and enjoyed a career year last season, hitting .341/.388/.458. And we all know what happens to players who enjoy career seasons while in their 30’s - the decline is close by. But here’s the thing. Polanco is such a good contact hitter that I don’t think the decline is going to be that sharp. He won’t match last year’s lofty number, but he won’t be too far off. He’s the best second baseman in the league.

The acquisition of Renteria is intriguing. His lone season in the AL (2005 with the Red Sox) was a disaster. He had his share of fielding troubles that year and that supposedly effected him at the plate. Whatever the reason, he had his difficulties with AL pitching, striking out in 16.1% of his at bats. He comes to Detroit off the second best year of his career, hitting .332/.390/.470 on the strength of an insanely high .375 BABIP. Uh, he’s a candidate to regress. And it will be interesting to see how he handles the league his second time around.

He’s going to begin the season on the DL, but was there a player more fun to watch last year than Granderson? He was the main reason I watched Tiger games. But like Renteria, he was the beneficiary of an elevate BABIP - in his case it was .362. In other words, like everyone we’ve already discussed, he’s a prime candidate to regress. One way he would help himself would be to take more walks. Maybe he doesn’t go 20-20-20-20 or whatever he did last season, but at least he would be more likely to keep his .360 OBP. Last year was magical for him, but there’s zero chance for a repeat.

Speaking of career years, how about Ordonez and his .363/.434/.595? The guy was an animal and he beat his career averages in every category by 40 to 60 points. His BABIP was .385 which makes Ordonez a candidate for the biggest decline in this lineup.

I haven’t forgotten about Cabrera. I just saved the best for last. Sure there were questions about his work ethic, conditioning and attitude, but in his short time with the Tigers, the guy has been a model ballplayer. And there’s the fact he’s freaking outstanding. .320/.401/.565 is a down year for the guy. He’ll turn 25 next month, and now he’s locked in for the next eight seasons. Just a phenomenal talent.

Analysis

Just about every single regular save Cabrera is primed for a decline, but this remains a potent lineup. David Pinto at Baseball Musings crunched the numbers using the Marcel projections and come up with an average of 5.58 runs per game which is actually an increase from last year. That’s amazing considering the production is expected to drop from just about every single regular. The addition of Cabrera was that important. If that trade wasn’t made and you swap him out for Inge and the production drops to 5.22 runs per game - a net loss from last season. Dave Dombrowski for GM of the year.

(An aside - If I was a Tiger fan, I would be horribly depressed that this team missed the post season last year. So many career years from the position players, and nothing to show for it. We’ll find out why they missed October in a moment.)

And of course, that’s horrible news for the Royals. Yes, this Detroit team is aging, but with Cabrera they’ve given themselves a cornerstone for the future. Even if the Royals young talent makes huge strides, they will still trail the Tigers in offensive production.

Rotation

Justin Verlander
Jeremy Bonderman
Kenny Rogers
Dontrelle Willis
Nate Robertson

Here’s where things get interesting. Last year, Detroit starters posted a 4.68 ERA which was the ninth best mark in the AL.

Verlander took a strong step forward last year, with a strikeout rate of 8.17 K/9 IP while keeping his walk rate at 2.99 BB/9 IP. It’s also worth noting he does a great job keeping the ball in the park (playing his home games in Detroit helps) and he cut his home run rate to 0.89 HR/9 IP in 2007. Verlander throws a filthy fastball that cuts in to a right handed hitter. And the harder he throws (last year he topped 100 mph on occasion) the harder it cuts. Nasty. And it doesn’t really matter if the hitter is right-handed or lefty - he’s equally tough. Last year RHP hit .234/.307/.336 and LHB hit .232/.312/.378. He’s a true front line starter.

Before Verlander arrived, Bonderman was thought of as the pitcher at the head of the rotation. He has decent stuff - it’s just that he allows way too many base runners. The last four seasons his WHIP has been remarkably consistent, falling between 1.30 and 1.38. His walk rate is pretty good (2.48 BB/9 IP last year) so the trouble is in giving up too many base hits. Last year, he was burned for a career worst 5.01 ERA. One other thing about Bonderman that jumps out is his fluctuating strikeout rate.

2004: 8.22 K/9 IP
2005: 6.90 K/9 IP
2006: 8.50 K/9 IP
2007: 7.49 K/9 IP

With all the base runners he allows, it’s no surprise his best season was the year with his highest strikeout rate. It’s the key to his performance.

The 43 year old Rogers is entering his 20th major league season. Yikes. Not surprisingly, health issues (blood clots and elbow inflammation) limited him to 11 starts last year. The upside is despite the arm problems, his velocity didn’t suffer. The downside is he doesn’t have much velocity to lose.

Willis arrived in the celebrated Winter Meetings deal with the Marlins and will fall into the fourth spot in the rotation. Since his breakout 2005, it’s been mostly downhill and he bottomed out with a 5.17 ERA last year. Like Bonderman, Willis has always given up a ton of hits. But Willis’ walk rate has almost doubled since 2005, and that’s going to leave a mark. He was already pitching in a favorable park in south Florida, but it will be interesting to see how he makes the move to a league with stronger hitters. If he can get his walks under control he could be a solid middle of the rotation starter.

Robertson rounds out the Tigers rotation. He missed time last year with a “tired arm” and finished the season with a 4.76 ERA. That’s not great - he’s pretty average in just about every aspect of his game - but for someone expected to be a fifth starter, he’s fine.

Analysis

It’s not a great rotation, but it’s pretty solid. They all project to have ERAs below 4.50 and all five don’t hurt themselves with the home run.

I know people have been hammering on Detroit’s starting pitching, but I don’t see it as a huge problem. Rogers aside, I’d take any one of the other four and slot them into the middle of the Royals rotation and it would make KC’s pitching much better. That’s not to say I’d take Robertson ahead of Gil Meche. I’m saying the holes in the back of the rotation mean there’s plenty of room for improvement in KC.

In a head to head comparison, Verlander vs. Meche is really close to call. Meche was slightly better last year, but Verlander is younger and has more room to get even better. If he elevates his game just a touch, he’ll be dominating. Meche doesn’t have that potential, so I’ll give the edge to Verlander - barely. I’m on the record of saying Bannister will regress, but he should still be better than Bonderman and Greinke vs. Rogers isn’t even a contest. But the real difference is in the back of the rotation. The Tigers own the edge, no matter who Trey Hillman decides to pitch.

The edge here belongs to the Tigers.

Bullpen

Here’s where things get dicey. With key setup men Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya out because of injury, this is a real area of concern for the Tigers. Until they return, Detroit will have to rely on Bobby Seay, Tim Byrdak, Jason Grilli, Denny Bautista and Zach Miner.

From the left side, Seay is a LOOGY who held left handed hitters to a .209 average and .270 OBP last year. Byrdak is even better against lefties, limiting them to a .176 average, but gives up far too many walks to be counted on in key situations. Last year, his walk rate was 5.20 BB/9 IP, which is actually below his career average.

From the right, Grilli is average and we all know about Bautista and his inability to find the strike zone.

Those relievers will pitch in front of closer Todd Jones. Jones saved 38 games last year with a 4.26 ERA and a 1.43 BB/K ratio. Jones is like a ticking time bomb at the back of that bullpen. He’s not closer material, but he’s the best option for the Tigers. Yuck.

This bullpen is like playing Russian Roulette with a loaded gun.

Analysis

Injuries, age and inexperience in the bullpen give the Tigers a true Achilles heel. Apart from Seay, I don’t think there is a single pitcher (currently) in the Detroit bullpen that I would take on the Royals.

There’s a theory (to which I subscribe) that says you spend your money on bats and starting pitching and stock your bullpen with average arms and hope to catch some magic. With relief pitcher’s performance vacillating from year to year, this makes sense and that’s what the Tigers are trying to do. We’ll see how it works for them.

The clear edge here belongs to the Royals.

Overall Analysis

The Tigers will provide the Indians with the competition for the Central. Their pitching is probably better, but the Royals just don’t have the firepower to hang with the Tigers.

The good news is, depending on how fast their bats age, the Royals could make up the ground rather quickly. But for this season at least, they’ll be looking up at the Tigers in the standings.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, March 26th, 2008 at 5:10 am and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.