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Royals’ Continued Success Depends on Scoring More Runs
I bet you read that headline and thought ‘man, that guy is a real genius’. One does not have to be very smart to understand that 23 runs in 6 games is not going to lead to a 4-2 record very often.
Kansas City has enjoyed tremendous relief pitching to start the season. Still, the bullpen could have a great year and never enjoy a run as good as they were in the team’s first six games (17 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 22 K). Numbers like that simply don’t last for an entire season.
The starting rotation has been good, too, and frankly it is possible Gil Meche will not give up six runs in a start again this year. However, it is equally possible that Brett Tomko will not go five inning without allowing a run this year, also. I believe the rotation will be solid, but we all know that Brian Bannister and Zack Greinke are not going to allow just one run in 14 innings of work every time they go out to pitch.
So, it all comes back to offense and there, you can actually make a case that the Royals have been fortuneate to score what they have this season. Kansas City is averaging under four runs per game even though they are hitting .348 with runner in scoring positions and .364 with runners in scoring position with two outs. Those are hard numbers to maintain for any reasonable stretch of time, especially for a young team.
While it is early, too early really to make any real analysis, here are some key factors that could go a long way towards upping the offensive production:
BASERUNNING
Excluding the routine fielder’s choice situations, here is a list of outs made on the basepaths thus far:
J Buck singled to center, M Teahen thrown out at home, J Buck to second advancing on throw.
M Teahen singled to center, M Grudzielanek scored, B Butler to second, B Butler thrown out at third attempting to advance on play.
J Buck struck out swinging. R Gload caught stealing second, catcher to second.
B Butler singled to center, M Grudzielanek scored, B Butler thrown out at second attempting to advance on play.
J Guillen lined into double play, second to first, M Grudzielanek doubled off first.
B Butler singled to deep left, B Butler out stretching at second.
R Gload grounded into fielder’s choice to shortstop, M Olivo out at third.
J Guillen grounded into fielder’s choice to shortstop, A Callaspo out at third.
A Gordon singled to left, J Guillen and B Butler scored, A Gordon out stretching at second.
E German caught stealing second, pitcher to first to shortstop.
That is ten outs on the bases in just six games: three by Billy Butler trying to take the extra base on either throws to the plate or stretching a single into a double. Two more outs were made by baserunners trying to advance to third on ground balls to the shortstop. Apparently at least one out was caused by a misinterpatation of first base coach Rusty Kuntz’s ‘No, no, no’ as ‘Go, go, go.’ Now, I love this coaching staff thus far, but shouldn’t someone had thought that no and go sound an awful lot alike?
Some of these outs were pretty much unavoidable (Grudz’s double play ball was just one of those things for example) and some were calculated risks (Teahen out at home in the season opener), but most are avoidable plays. Butler and Gordon were both out by yards trying to take seond and neither play on the grounders to short were even remotely close at third base. Gload’s caught stealing was a failed hit and run and German’s was basically a pick off.
Does Trey Hillman want to be aggressvie on the basepaths? Certainly. Does he want to run into outs in the name of aggression? Certainly not. When it comes to baserunning, the Royals need to get better. They need to get smarter. Almost two outs per game due to baserunning will be a crippling factor to the Royals improving their run production.
Taking a Walk
Ever since Alex Gordon took struck out looking three times on opening day, the entire team has developed a phobia of taking pitches. Through six games, the Royals have just eight walks versus thirty-two strikeouts. They went an ENTIRE SERIES in Minnesota without drawing a single base on balls.
Hey, I am all for an aggressive approach at the plate, having developed an absolute loathing for the ‘take a strike before you swing’ mentality. Still, the Royals are currently living periously close to the Angel Berroa side of the ‘work the count scale’. This is a team that desperately needs some guys to work the count (intelligently mind you, not just taking pitches for the sake of taking pitches) and that someone leads us into our next topic.
David DeJesus Needs to Come Back
A lot of people like Joey Gathright in center and leading off. Give me DeJesus any day of the week. Last year, in what was DeJesus’ worst offensive season and Gathright’s best, David created .55 runs per game. Joey on the other hand created .42 runs per game. Over the course of six games, that is just under a one run difference. May not seem like much, unless that one run game during Friday night’s 4-3 loss.
Going back to 2006, DeJesus created .64 runs per game, while Gathright managed just .39 per game. Using those numbers, the difference is 1.5 runs over six games. Run that out a little further and that difference turns into seven or eight more runs per month. Does not seem like much? Well, that turns into 45 runs (about) per season, which is just about the difference between a bad offensive team and an average offensive team.
DeJesus will not jump cars or Japanese pitchers and he may not run down that ball in the gap that Gathright snagged on Sunday afternoon, but he will work a count and get on base. DeJesus will likely get to a ball that Gathright does not simply because he takes better routes, so the two are closer defensively than their relative speeds might indicate. Furthermore, DeJesus will hit doubles and even a few homers, something Gathright simply will not do. Not to mention that, basestealing aside, DeJesus is a baserunner on par with Mark Teahen.
This is not a bashing of Joey Gathright. I’m not sure that the Royals might be best served with Joey in left and Teahen at first base, at least some of the time. However, I firmly believe having David DeJesus in the lineup at or near the top of the order will go a long way towards getting the extra runs the Royals need.
No one will dispute that the Royals are off to a great start. To keep the momentum going, however, Kansas City needs to find some more offense. Sooner rather than later, would be preferable.
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21 Responses to “Royals’ Continued Success Depends on Scoring More Runs”
April 7th, 2008 at 8:21 pm
Ok Clark but it’s a double edged sword isn’t it- we don’t have the big bats of other teams therefore we have to take more chances- have unproductive hitters do more to help us score so John Buck can strike out or attempt to move a runner- it’s a conundrum- until they show they have the bats I think they have to keep pushing the envelope - just need to get better at executing it.
April 7th, 2008 at 8:35 pm
I LOVE betting the favorites. Congratulations to the NATIONAL CHAMPION KANSAS JAYHAWKS!!!!!!!
Now let’s go out and stick it to the Yankees.
I hate the take a pitch untill you see a strike methodology too. DDJ definately needs to get back into the lineup so he can show the rest of the squad how to work a count.
Clark, you have a nice list of outs the Royals have run into this year already. Where’s your list of the extra bases we’ve taken because of aggresiveness? I’d rather see the Royals actually hustle on the paths rather than play Buddy’s Station to Station ball that would quite literally put me to sleep. IMO, the Royals will figure it out and find a happy medium on the whole base running and pitch selectiveness.
Why is it a penny for your thoughts but you have to put your two cents in?
April 7th, 2008 at 8:35 pm
I like the aggression that is keeping us out of the rally killing DPs, and save the inexcusable sacrifice of Ross Gload in the 11th inning on Opening Day (which just happened to work), Hillman’s moves have ranged from strokes of genius, to “defenseably questionable”. This opposed to Buddy Bell’s strategic decisions, which ranged from predictably bad, to totally indefensible.
And yes, to be a league average lineup, this team absolutely needs David DeJesus. They can get away with a low-OBP, high slugging Catcher in the 8 hole, and a SS that can’t hit in the 9th hole, and be average, but they can’t also have a leadoff man who runs like Juan Pierre–and hits like Tony Pena.
Really, when DeJesus gets back in, this team should be fine, but if he’s going to miss more time, they should try something like this:
LF Teahen
2B Grudzielanek
3B Gordon
RF Guillen
DH Butler
1B Gload
CF Callaspo
C Buck
SS Pena
Just to get another stick in the lineup. I have no problem with Gathright coming off the bench, or getting a spot start here or there, but he and TPJ hitting in the same lineup scares absolutely no one.
April 7th, 2008 at 8:52 pm
“Why is it a penny for your thoughts but you have to put your two cents in?”
Inflation.
April 7th, 2008 at 9:11 pm
excellent article. i feel vindicated.
April 7th, 2008 at 9:41 pm
Spot on with the baserunning analysis. I’ve watched/listened to every game this season, and it’s like every time I turn around I’m WTF? with the baserunning. Especially painful with the outs at home and third, where otherwise we’d have runners in scoring position…Trey needs to knock heads with the base coaches and the players.
April 8th, 2008 at 3:18 am
Greg: Your line up is way off. Callaspo has played the outfield for 80 innings and has never played Centerfield at the the Major League level.
If Gathright is healthy, he needs to play. If that means he is in left and Teahen is at first, so be it. Gathright is the speed of the team, yes, you have to get on base for it to matter…but he’s young, he’ll come around.
Callaspo isn’t another stick. He has three hits with nine at bats. Callaspo has yet to prove he can hit MLB pitching….Gathright hit .307 last year…with a OBP of .371.
I’d take Gathright over Callaspo any day of the week right now.
April 8th, 2008 at 6:10 am
GDub - That’s the thing, I have a hard time coming up with more than two instances of the Royals really taking an extra base. I can’t remember an instance truly stretching a single into a double. If memory serves, I think there were two close plays at the plate that could maybe count.
When it comes to steals, the Royals have been caught twice in six attempts. Someone smarter than me (Hardball Times, maybe?) equates a successful steal to being worth 0.18 runs, a caught stealing is -0.45 runs. Under those criteria, KC is down 0.18 runs in that category, too.
I am all for, and certainly agree that the Royals need to be aggressive. They simply need to get better…and fast.
April 8th, 2008 at 6:40 am
The Royals are .348 with runners in scoring positon with Gload being 0-5 & no RBI when this happens.
Ross has 7 hits, that is good but all singles and no hits at all with runners in scoring position. Just have to get more production then this out of firstbase.
How long before we see Shealy?
April 8th, 2008 at 7:21 am
What happened to the banner and the banner font? Not sure if it’s up to you guys, but change it back!
April 8th, 2008 at 8:54 am
Clark, thanks for the specific numbers on successful steals vs. times caught stealing. This would suggest that 45 stolen bases cancel out 18 caught stealings and result in a “break even” point. Since 45 + 18 = 63, and 45/63 = 71.43%, we could say that in order to break even with the running game, the Royals would have to be successful 71.43% of the time in their stolen base attempts. This doesn’t necessarily mean that each individual player must steal at a 71% clip, but the team as a whole certainly must do so, or the team (which has been running into a ridiculous number of outs on the bases as it is) would be giving away even more outs.
One thing that this doesn’t factor in is the disruption factor that aggressive base stealing has on the opposing battery. It would be interesting to see statistics on how markedly the batting average of the hitter at the plate is increased when an aggressive runner is on first, as opposed to a plodding, station-to-station type of runner. If the disruption factor is significant, it would seem that the stolen base percentage could dip below 71.4% and still result in a positive, better-than-break-even impact on the offense. But then, the disruption factor may have been factored in already when Clark’s friends came up with the statistics he cited above.
April 8th, 2008 at 9:38 am
Very interesting commentary. I realize you have to play with the players you’ve got and utilize any strengths you have, but the fact of the matter is that with Buck, Pena and to some extent Gload; we are giving away way too many ABs regardless of Gathright/DeJesus.Maybe both in line-up, with Teahan at first. Find out once and for all about Shealy (300 ABs), Olivo playing 3 out of 5 games. Trade for power. Will Hillman and Moore sacrifice defense in the short-term for long-term gain?
April 8th, 2008 at 11:17 am
Yea, Ross ain’t getting it done. Gload-Buck-Pena is a terrible–TERRIBLE– stretch of offense. I am all for either bringing Shealy up. Or, putting Teahen at 1B with Gath or DDJ in left. Gload is a utility guy. I also fear that a platoon of Gload/Shealy may be in the future. Don’t know who we’d drop from the 25-man roster to bring Shealy up, however, to make this happen. Would have to be a trade somewhere. Therefore, maybe the Teahen at first base is the reasonable choice. However, it’s early and may be Ross and Johnny will go on a run soon.
April 8th, 2008 at 11:20 am
I think Soria’s nickname should be MONEY. Cuz when he comes in, he’s MONEY.
Joakim “Money” Soria
Or, since he’s “Mexican Tough” he could be…
Joakim “Dinero” Soria
April 8th, 2008 at 3:51 pm
I think there are far more intangibles than we realize. Speed, reckless abandon, aggressiveness - I feel these things cause the opposing team to make mistakes they wouldn’t otherwise make. They put us in the driver’s seat, keep everyone on there toes, keep everyone loose and having fun. And most importantly it gets in other teams’ heads.
Also, I think there is something to be said for first impressions. Hillman may know that if he can take this style to an extreme the first few weeks of the season, it’ll carry over. Opposing teams will expect us to be wild on the basepaths. We can get in their heads without doing as much. Without wasting as many outs. Less risk with the same reward.
I love it! It reminds of the teams I loved on that astro turf.
Go Royals
S
April 8th, 2008 at 4:33 pm
Zach Daddy: Shealy is dead last on the Omaha team in OBP and Batting Average…I don’t foresee Shealy anytime soon, unless Gload gets hurt.
April 8th, 2008 at 4:39 pm
I think that Joakim Soria’s nickname should be: Joakim Soriabout the game being over after the eighth inning cuz I got this.
April 8th, 2008 at 5:43 pm
I am concerned about Tony Pena. He is hitting .048! I still think that last year, Teahen should have stayed at 3rd, at Gordon could play SS. But now we have one of the worst shortstop in baseball starting. Jose Guillen is only hitting .138. A 138 average for 12 million a year, I don’t know bout that. (Pena is 1 for 21.)
April 8th, 2008 at 6:32 pm
When looking at offense, we must look at 1B and SS situation. We don’t have to have a Hanley Ramirez or Jimmy Rollins, but TPJ won’t do. The jury is certainly out on Callaspo defensively, but a couple of starts a week at SS would help. If we can get a lead, then bring TPJ for defense. Gload cannot be our everyday first baseman (thanks Terry for stats). We may need to make a trade, but we have to get production there.
April 8th, 2008 at 6:39 pm
Checked O-Royals site real quick. No one is ripping cover off the ball, but Hollins has 7 walks in 5 games (for those of you interested in working counts). Damon played well in Arizona. De La Rosa was listed as starting pitcher, and had a decent line. Wasn’t he supposed to go to Rockies?
April 9th, 2008 at 6:06 am
Lee - DeLaRosa did in fact pitch for Omaha last night. His ‘trade’ to the Rockies may be a wait and see sort of thing. Colorado may not have room for him in AAA right now or the Royals may want to delay fulfilling their obligation to provide the PTBNL until they get a better feel on Jorge.
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