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Royals Authority
What We Know
We’re about a month through the season so it seems like as good a time as any to recap what we’ve learned about Trey Hillman and the 2008 version of our Kansas City Royals.
A bunch of this could scream out small sample size, but most of what I want to discuss has very deep roots that go back several years. In other words, some of the offensive ineptitude doesn’t really surprise any of us.
The Royals couldn’t hit their way out of a paper bag.
Is it a cliche if it’s true?
We’re used to watching power-challenged teams in Kansas City, but this is insane. The Royals have a grand total of 50 extra base hits in their first 20 games - which is by far the fewest in the league and 21 below average. That means their team slugging percentage is probably awful. Guess what - it is! The Royals are slugging .346 which again, is the worst in the AL and almost 50 points below league average.
They hit home runs every 69 at bats. Last year, the Royals hit 102 home runs. It’s entirely possible they will have added a “power” bat (the word power is in quotes because 20 home runs a year isn’t really power) in Jose Guillen and they will hit fewer home runs this year than last.
For a team that has trouble scoring runs, they sure have a cavalier attitude once they get on base.
That’s just a snide way for me to break out my counter and inform you the Royals have now made 22 outs on the bases this season. (Remember, we’re counting caught stealings, pick-offs and trying to take the random extra base.) They actually didn’t make an out on the bases in the Cleveland series last week. But they did hit into six double plays. Sigh.
This whole stolen base thing irks me to no end. It’s generally agreed upon that if you’re going to be considered a benefit when attempting thefts, you need to be successful more than 75% of the time. Anything less is just giving away outs. Well, the Royals have a 56% success rate. 56%!!! Again, that’s the lowest in the league.
Joey Gathright has been caught twice, but I’m pretty sure those were times he was picked off. Ross Gload, of all people has been caught twice, but I’m pretty sure those were busted hit and run plays. Which raises more questions we’ll address later.
Maybe the reason they make so many outs on the bases is they’re on base so rarely, they don’t have a clue what they’re supposed to do.
It’s true. The Royals OBP is .308 - they’re only ahead of Minnesota (.303 OBP) in that category. That’s thanks in part to the fact the Royals rank 13th in the league in base on balls, drawing only 65 walks so far.
The fact this comes after Hillman was preaching OBP as the key to success in spring training is troubling. Honestly, I had high hopes that all the talk about David DeJesus posting a .380 OBP and Royals hitters in general working counts and getting on base. Although DeJesus has done very well when he’s been healthy (he has a .390 OBP), the new mantra has largely fallen on deaf ears.
Who sees fewer pitches than anyone else on the Royals? You probably have one guy in mind, but are thinking to yourself it’s a trick question because the answer is so obvious. Nope, it’s not a trick. Jose Guillen sees 3.62 pitches per plate appearance. And is it me, or does it seem like whenever the Royals are down a run or two late in the game and they need baserunners, he’s hacking immediately?
If Hillman let’s Tony Pena hit when the Royals are down a run in the eighth inning or later on more time, he’ll owe me a new TV.
I mean, are you even trying to win?
Let’s make this clear: Tony Pena is the worst player getting regular at bats in the major leagues right now. The. Worst. It’s not even close. The Royals need to lock him in the clubhouse late in the game, so he won’t accidentally be allowed to hit.
We’re at the point where if the Royals have the chance to break the game open in, let’s say the third inning, they need to pinch hit for Pena.
Or at the very least, Hillman needs to use his DH for Pena and let the pitcher hit.
Pena’s OPS+ is negative one. HOW THE HELL IS THAT POSSIBLE? For OPS+, 100 is considered average. If you’re dead, you rate a zero. Pena has a freaking -1.
And please don’t ask if I would rather have Angel Berroa. That’s like asking someone if they would prefer waterboarding or blunt trauma.
And now, I have to question Hillman’s handling of his pitchers.
Specifically, why did Hillman keep Gil Meche on the mound to throw 129 pitches on Sunday, which tied a career high?
Meche battled in that game and threw 103 pitches through five innings. With the Royals trailing 3-2 and an off day on Monday, I thought for sure, Hillman would go to his bullpen for the start of the sixth. I was surprised when Meche took the ball and was thrilled when the Jays bailed him out by making three outs on just six pitches.
Meche had now thrown 109 pitches through six. Perfect, I thought to myself. He really shouldn’t have been out there for that inning, but he dodged a bullet and now Hillman is playing with house money. There’s no way he’ll send Meche back to the mound in the seventh.
Imagine my surprise when Meche not only took the hill for the seventh, he wasn’t pulled when the lead off hitter singled and was ultimately allowed to throw an additional 20 pitches.
Why? Why risk your franchise pitcher (he’s not the best in the rotation, but with his contract he’s still the key guy) in that situation? The game is close, but that’s why you have a bullpen. Surely, you can cobble together three innings between the gang of seven that’s sitting out there waiting for the phone to ring.
There is hope.
I refuse to get too high or too low over the Royals. While a sweep in Detroit to open the season is fun, I try to stay focused on the big picture. So I haven’t really seen anything to make me think my pre-season prediction of 75 wins is crazy or absurd.
We knew going into the season the pitching would be better than the hitting and so far that’s held true. But what’s frustrating is to see this team give away at bats and outs on the bases like it’s no big deal. I think this team can improve, but I also think we still have a long way to go.
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22 Responses to “What We Know”
April 28th, 2008 at 9:54 pm
Correct me if I’m wrong, but I don’t think Hillman can DH for Pena. The DH has to hit for the pitcher, I don’t believe he’s allowed to hit for anyone else.
I was also really perplexed by the decision to let Gil Meche throw 129 pitches in 6.2 innings. There’s really just no reason to send him out there and let him approach 130 pitches without even finishing seven innings. Between that and all the talk a few weeks ago about how they want their starters to go out and throw 7+ innings every day (which sounds nice in theory, but isn’t necessarily practical all the time), I’m just hoping we’re not about to find out that Hillman graduated from the Dusty Baker School of Ruining Pitchers’ Arms. Can we all pitch in and send Hillman on a field trip to San Diego to have a talk with Mark Prior?
April 28th, 2008 at 10:25 pm
Craig it is a pleasure to have you as a knowledgeable Royals fan.
However, harping on Gil’s pitch count as opposed to your other very astute observations doesn’t seem that important.
Gil did not get the Dusty Baker treatment. As long as his workload doesn’t increase over the next few months there isn’t any reason that a 29 year old pitcher can’t tolerate a pitch count between 115-130. Granted, if that pitch count is only allowed a few times per year.
As a pitcher who is entering his 28-33 years, as long as we don’t see extreme changes in his workload there is no reason to limit Gil. God forbid, forgoing any arm problems I don’t mind Gil pitching an occasional 100+ outing.
April 29th, 2008 at 3:21 am
What really drives me crazy about Hillman is his use of the bullpen. Nomo, Yabuto, and Perralta have all turned close games into routes while the other more reliable guys just sit there. Is there some rule that Ramirez, Nunez or even Soria can’t be used when we trail by a run - that we have to be winning ?
And Craig is absolutely right about how pathetic this team is offensively. I like our younger guys, but could Billy Butler actually hit something other than lead-off or 2-out (none on) singles? And it never falls, any time we get 2-on with no outs, up steps the ‘black-hole’ combo of Buck/Pena to either pop-up/strike out/ground into DP (on 2 pitches no less).
April 29th, 2008 at 5:27 am
It does seem llike when they actually get some men on base they lose all semblance of patience and swing at anything. An at bat that should be chiseled in infamy is Mark Teahen’s at bat against Fausto Carmona in the 1st inning. This is a pitcher with a pretty substantial walk rate this year and with two men on and a 3-0 count Teahen goes to hacking. You have to be functionally brain dead to do something that dumb.
April 29th, 2008 at 6:24 am
I think you have hit upon many of the feelings Royals fans have. While there is plenty to scoff about, one thing needs to be determined: What kind of players do you have? You have got to leave Meche out there to try and get his confidence up. He’s an able pitcher who needs to get back on track. Granted you don’t let him over-exert, but I bet Trey was wanting something to click for Gil that would give him something positive to build on.
Pena is still young, and needs to learn to keep grinding away. I do believe that he would be better served spending time in AAA Omaha to work on batting mechanics, but his glove is great and is well needed in the field.
As far as Teahen hacking at a 3-0 count, you can’t fault the guy too much. In a 3-0 hole, the pitcher has to lay something in the zone to not walk. That means that it should be a very hittable pitch. That’s being a smart aggressor at the plate…the count was favorable. Didn’t work out the best, but you gotta try. Its still early in the season, and everyone (including the coaches) needs to know what they can do and what the team can do.
April 29th, 2008 at 7:20 am
valid points all in describing what amounts to an implosion. very disturbing symptoms of questionable managing in all facets. can have a post giving Hillman some good advice?
April 29th, 2008 at 7:24 am
The good news is that no one except Olivo (maybe Callapso also) had an April that we could sit back and say “there’s no way he can keep that up”.
If DeJesus can play every day, that’s going to be huge! The guy is a good offensive weapon, and he keeps Joey Gathright out of the lineup.
We know the bullpen is solid, so if Bannister and Greinke keep up the pace they are on, 75 wins seems, if anything, a bit pessimistic.
April 29th, 2008 at 8:28 am
z it appears that you are right per the official rules: A hitter may be designated to bat for the starting pitcher and all subsequent pitchers in any game without otherwise affecting the status of the pitcher(s) in the game. MLB Official rules 6.10.
I don’t know if Craig was serious or not but Kevin Kietzman on 810 has been pushing this move for a while and I am starting to suspect that he has never looked to see if it is possible before he opened his mouth.
That said maybe the Royals should push for a rule change as they would probably be the only team in baseball that would benefit from batting the pitcher. Grienkie has that home run from the D-Backs game a few years ago and Bannister was an infielder before he was a pitcher.
April 29th, 2008 at 9:02 am
why do we have this batting coach who is leading such horrible hitting for the second year in a row? good comment about no lost outs against Cleveland, hopefully Trey and Dayton are secretly reading our comments and/or otherwise giving some thoughts about how to make adjustments to help the team improve. if base running is improving (by not running anymore), how about giving more thought to the hitting as well?
April 29th, 2008 at 9:16 am
Nothing makes a manager look more incompetent than a team who can’t hit. We just took 2 out of 3 from Toronto and we are focusing LARGELY on the negative. Yes, we still have holes, but we are STILL young and in the early to mid stages of building this team. Imagine how much better this team would be with Torii Hunter hitting 5th behind Butler and Guillen. GMDM tried. Hillman has to dance with the team he has.
Meche will be fine. 129 pitches is only a concern if it happens two or more games in a row or if he had a pre-existing injury going into the start.
I, again, would like to say that Olivo should be the everyday catcher. Buck’s time is up. He’s had one good month in the last three years. Trade him to the Yankees since Jorge is on the mend. We’ll take Melky Cabrera (I wish).
April 29th, 2008 at 11:00 am
I really wish we could have traded Sanders to them two years ago for Melky.
April 29th, 2008 at 11:02 am
Skirra- I was half-kidding about using a DH for Pena. There’s no doubt in my mind that any one of the Royals five starters could handle the bat better than Pena, (have you seen him try to lay down a sac bunt? Holy crap.) but it’s just me trying to make a point and be funny at the same time.
I don’t listen to Kevin Kietzman anymore, so I had no idea he was saying the same thing. But I don’t doubt he’s serious.
April 29th, 2008 at 11:09 am
Yes, we took 2 out of 3 from the Blue Jays. We even got our first game of more than 6 runs.
Yes, we’re still focusing on the negative. Wanna know why?
Because while we’ve seen the team win some games, we never saw a blowout. We never saw a game with overwhelming POSITIVES. We have had close games that we won, close games that we lost, and it’s nice that we won more than our share of those…but the non-close games, the blowouts, have all been on the other side. We have a few spectacular meltdowns, we don’t have any spectacular successes to balance them out. Even our “big offensive burst” game we only won by 4 runs.
Want focus on positive? That balance needs to shift, dramatically. A blowout win or two. Yes, those will never be the typical game. But if it happens against us and NEVER for us, that breed negative feelings.
April 29th, 2008 at 11:13 am
Just to clarify with concrete numbers - every Royals game this season in which the margin of victory was more than four runs was a Royals loss.
April 29th, 2008 at 12:31 pm
I’m pretty sure that Trey Hillman and GMDM know about this site. They MAY even post here on occasion. ;-)
After all, this is the best commentary on Royals baseball around!
April 29th, 2008 at 1:21 pm
Cef AKA Chief (I call him Cef) is right- Hillman may have even read this post. I like the Royals chances here against the Strangers. They might be underrated, sure, but they still aren’t that good! I think or mean Tomko will beat Jennings tonight, and if that doesn’t happen, you can all criticize me for jinxing Tomko. I heard you can vote for All-Stars now. Except on the Computer. When I wasn’t as old, I voted at the Grocery Store (They had Ballots there). I loved those days. Anyway, I heard Hideo Nomo was released cuz he requested unconditional release waivers. I hate all these road trips! I can’t ever see the Royals up close on these stinkin road trips.
That was uncalled for, I know.
Go Royals
Thank me
April 29th, 2008 at 2:17 pm
Minor League Report- Ryan Shealy hit his 6th home run this year the other night. Or maybe it was day. However, Mike Maroth lost the other day or night and he is 0-2. Aviles is hittin .351 so far.
At Burlington, the other day or night, Michael M. hit his first home run of this year. Incredible. Not!
I learned that when the Royals lead after 6 innings, they are undefeated. (10-0) When they trail after 6 innings they have only posted one win. They are 1-12 when they trail after inning no. 6. When starter goes less than 6 innings, the royals are 2-7. When the opposition has more than 10 hits the Royals are 1-9. When the Royals have gotten more than ten hits they are only 6-3. When they don’t homer, the Royals are 5-12.
Thank me
April 29th, 2008 at 4:33 pm
Craig my man finally some validation from my points- more from Doolittle in the star- it’s not just focusing on the negative vs being positive- it’s the reality I’ve seen for years- the point is Banny and Grinks can’t keep it up -eventually they will need some offensive help then we are looking at a 15 game losing streak-
These are issues not tied to 2008 but they are 1 reason why the organization has floundered for decades- the believe in strategies that simply don’t work. They are teaching this bs be aggressive early from A ball on and it creates a lot of bad hitters. Look at the players we choose to sign-Guillen-Olivo-Grudz and the players we let go- Keppinger-Diaz even Brazille
we are in position to turn it around and my fear is we still don’t get it.
Sabermetrics = evil- no room for any new ideas (though other teams do just fine with them)
April 29th, 2008 at 7:14 pm
Craig, the team must have read this before the game tonight. Great job, just keep up the good work.
May 1st, 2008 at 7:48 am
I’m a couple days late on this, but you said, “Let’s make this clear: Tony Pena is the worst player getting regular at bats in the major leagues right now. The. Worst. It’s not even close. ” I’m not saying Tony Pena isn’t the worst (hitting) player getting regular at bats right now. He probably is. But it’s closer than you think. Brian Bocock has played in 26 of the Giants 29 games, and gotten 70 at bats so far (compared to Pena’s 23 games and 77 at bats). If you compare their BA/OBP/SLG/HR/RBI, you get:
Bocock .157/.280/.171/0/2
Pena .156/.175/.208/0/5
Batting average is about the same. Pena gets on base less, but hits for a little more power. Bocock has the higher OPS (451 to 383), but Pena has more RBI. (I included the zero home runs for both players just for fun. Anyone want to bet on which of them hits a home run first this season?) I guess if I had to choose which player I wanted to see at the plate in an important situation, I might go with Bocock, but the point is, neither one is anywhere close to a good option. So don’t go throwing around statements like “worst player” and “not even close” without remembering that there’s still a team in San Francisco that decided they didn’t need the all-time home run king because they wanted to challenge for the least runs scored in a 162-game season.
May 1st, 2008 at 9:06 am
Brett - Good point on Bocock. But I would add we’re talking about a player who never had a single at bat above A-ball (where he hit .220/.293/.328 last year) prior to this season and is in the majors only because of an injury to Omar Vizquel. In other words he’s in way over his head and Pena is hitting worse than Bocock. And when Vizquel returns, Bocock is out.
We’re stuck with Pena.
May 2nd, 2008 at 4:57 pm
Craig, thank you for bringing up Vizquel.
Vizquel, Ozzie Smith, and our beloved Frank White are examples of slick glovemen who didn’t hit much at first, but eventually became competent hitters who contributed to their team’s attack rather than detracting from it. If TPJ is to follow their lead, he needs to get with the program immediately; he is already way behind schedule. He would never, in a million years, develop the power that Frank displayed in the mid-80s, but he could become a RH-hitting Ozzie Smith type, with a little less speed but with almost as good a glove as Ozzie’s. But to do so, he needs to immediately make a 180-degree turnaround in his offensive game. He needs to become the anti-Pena and see 4.5 or 5 pitches per at-bat. So far, his track record suggests that he will never become this kind of hitter. I’d rather have Argenis Salazar, Buddy Biancalana, Luis Ordaz, or Rich Severson (count yourself a real Royals’ fan if you know who Severson is) at the plate than TPJ right now.
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