Royals Authority

Pitching Like It’s 2007

By Craig Brown | May 5th, 2008

Gil Meche pitches, the Royals bats struggle to score runs and it’s just like 2007 all over again.

Only this time, Meche was so good (and that bullpen, again!) that it didn’t matter the Royals could only muster two runs… It was good enough for the win.

And of course, there was Luke Hochevar on Saturday night, striking out six while allowing just three hits over six innings.

But let’s focus on the Meche outing today, because that’s where a lot of our angst has been directed over the first month of the season.

The highlights:

– He didn’t walk a batter for the first time all year. Believe me, that’s huge. He entered the game walking 4 batters per 9 IP. Compare that to last year’s walk rate of 2.58 BB/9 IP, and you see where the problem has been this year… Location, location, location. For one afternoon (at least) Meche didn’t have an issue with the strikezone at all.

I have to admit, I was a little worried early in the game. In the first inning, Meche began all three hitters with pitches out of the zone and went to a 3-2 count on the third hitter, David Dellucci. And remember last game where Meche threw 129 pitches, and you can see a reason for concern.

But for the game, Meche started just 11 of his 25 hitters off with a pitch out of the zone and had counts where Indian batters worked him for three balls only three times.

The real reason for his total pitch count of 110 pitches through seven innings was the Indians were getting some really good at bats. There were several times where Cleveland hitters were fouling off pitch after pitch after pitch. Victor Martinez saw 11 pitches in the second and Jhonny Peralta fouled off three consecutive pitches before missing at one and going down on strikes in the seventh.

– But for proof of how Meche was living in the (strike) zone on Sunday, look at his pitch count: 110 pitches with 73 strikes. That’s an outstanding ratio.

– And the bullpen remains this team’s saving grace. It has become relatively automatic for Trey Hillman where he will use Leo Nunez (or Ramon Ramirez as he did on Saturday) in the eighth before handing the ball to Joakim Soria in the ninth.

My friend Rany discussed Hillman’s pattern of use regarding Soria last week and makes some excellent (as usual) points. He argues that so far, Hillman hasn’t made the best use of Soria, but essentially, what are you going to do? This team doesn’t give you enough opportunities to use your closer very often in high pressure situations.

Soria has now appeared in 13 games and has yet to enter a game in mid-inning. The Royals record in games where he appears is 11-2. The two losses have come in games where Soria had to pitch. In the first loss, he was working on six days of rest and in the second, he was working on seven.

Three times, Hillman has called on Soria to get the last three outs in games where the Royals have a four run lead - games where he wasn’t eligible to get the save. You would think since managers seemed to be trained to use their closers in only save situations (or in blowout losses to get some work) that his usage pattern would mirror that of his appearances in the two losses - In other words, he’s in the game to get work. But that’s not how it is shaking out in the early going. In games where he’s given a four run lead, Soria has pitched on two, one and zero days of rest. Interesting.

How about this stat:

Soria pitching with at least one day of rest:
8 IP, 2 H, 1 BB, 13 SO — 14.6 K/9 IP

Soria pitching on back to back days:
5 IP, 1 H, 0 BB, 2 SO — 3.6 K/9 IP

There’s not much to work with since Soria is posting goose eggs across the board, but I’m intrigued by the dip in his strikeout rate when he’s pitching in his second consecutive game. Does this mean Soria is less effective when he throws on no rest? Well, I wouldn’t go that far because he’s still had plenty of success in that situation, but you have to wonder about the fact he’s throwing fewer strikeouts. And the mystery deepens when you realize his two strikeouts in pitching on back to back days came in the same game.

He’s made 13 appearances and failed to strike out a batter in just five of those games. And four of those came when he was throwing in his second game in as many days.

Just something to watch as the season evolves.

– Not much from the offense on Sunday as the Royals needed a Casey Blake error to claim their first run. It’s the least he could do, considering the hurt he put on the Royals in Kansas City last week.

– Tony Pena is now hitting .163/.180/.209 and Hillman say he’s going to give him another month to turn it around. Submitted without comment.

This entry was posted on Monday, May 5th, 2008 at 6:36 am and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

21 Responses to “Pitching Like It’s 2007”

Gene says:

May 5th, 2008 at 7:13 am

Craig- You’re vaguely stating your case for Soria to start, no? I’m on the fence on that, its a tough one, which you allude to.

Good work GilgaMeche
Mike Williams says:

May 5th, 2008 at 7:23 am

I’m EXCITED about those stats. To me, it validates my belief that Soria will make a terrific ace one day, and that he is potentially more suited to start than he is to relieve.

Imagine a one-two starting punch of Greinke and Soria. A team could win it all with top line starting pitching like that.
Greg Trippiedi says:

May 5th, 2008 at 7:26 am

With Bale out for awhile, it seems like they are going to try another lefty in the rotation (Mahay, perhaps?) if Brett Tomko doesn’t set the world on fire in his next start. I could see Neil Musser coming up and throwing out of the pen for a bit until Bale gets back.

If Hochevar continues to pitch well, then there really is no reason for Soria to move to the rotation. I have no doubt he would be relatively successful in the rotation…but I mean, someone has to pitch out of the bullpen, and with the last two starts by Meche and Hochevar, this appears to be one of the strongest rotations in the AL.
Clark Fosler says:

May 5th, 2008 at 7:30 am

Craig - I wonder about Soria’s dip in strikeouts on back to back days. Where those games against the same opponent? If so, would that indicate that they might (at least marginally) adjust to Soria’s ’sneaky fast’ fastball? Just a thought…and yes, I am too lazy to look it up myself.
Craig Brown says:

May 5th, 2008 at 7:49 am

Gene - I’ve made the case for Soria to start. I’ll keep banging that drum until something happens.

And Mike - I do think that’s where I’m heading…

Clark - Lazy man! But good idea…. Two of his four games were against the same opponent. But in the opening series against Detroit, he threw in all three games, with a day of rest between game 1 and game 2… He whiffed all three batters in game two.
Chief says:

May 5th, 2008 at 8:18 am

I am now not sure about Soria in the rotation. Let’s say that Meche returns to last years form, and Grienke/Bannister/Hochevar continue to perform like they have. That is four-solid rotation, man!

I think you have to leave Soria as the (insurance) closer unless you are really confident that someone else can perform that closer role.

I think what I’m trying to say is that moving Soria to the rotation would strengthen it, but not as much as it would weaken the bullpen.

As for Pena, I am disappointed. He was featured in a recent article on the Royals website - “Pena contends he hasn’t made any drastic changes in his approach at the plate. He was particularly conscious of not making any drastic changes.

‘It gets to the point where you might start thinking about I might be doing this, might be doing that. You can get in a bigger hole instead of just going out there and trying to put the ball in play,’ he said.”

Pena might as well stride up to the plate with two strikes - he swings for the fences until he’s down 0-2, and THEN he starts to pay attention.

Tony, do this - watch Grudz at the plate. You can learn a lot from him.
Chaim Mattis Keller says:

May 5th, 2008 at 8:19 am

I agree that Soria should start, but until that’s even considered by Royals management, another way to get more value out of the guy is to use him for more than just one inning! Nunez, Ramirez and Mahay make a hreat setup squad, but why burn one of them in the eighth if you’re just going to pitch Soria in the ninth anyway? How about having Soria pitch the eighth AND ninth? In the (hopefully unlikely) event that Soria blows the save but the game remains tied (or he entered in a tie, or entered behind and the Royals tie it up), that could give us one extra good bullpen option for extra innings.
steve y says:

May 5th, 2008 at 8:35 am

So nice to have two victories in a row, one good inning by the hitters in two games, carried by the starting pitching and the bullpen. Good to know that Pena finally has a one month clock ticking, that is in line with GMDM’s comments last year to take the first 60 days to evaluate and then act. If I were Tony, I would ask Grud to help me learn to shorten up throughout the entire at bat, swing at the strikes, not the balls, and might even ask Trey if he could recommend a good hitting coach to help as well. About Soria, my guess is they will leave him where he is, great bullpen may not be quite as important as great starting pitching, but a dominant closer in my view is a great asset, especially as a team starts to get better and not get blown out as often. I would keep him there until we develop or sign someone else who can handle it but, if we do, would be intriguing to give him a try, with a view to be ready to go as a starter by 2010 when we think we may be ready to be great.
Gene says:

May 5th, 2008 at 9:18 am

For now, if Hochevar can be a solid #4, I say keep Soria at closer. I’m one who will cry to the moon about the “save” statistic, yet, I’m stuck on what to do with Soria. At this point, if the Royals have a solid 1-4 without Soria, I’d argue Soria is best used to secure wins for those guys. I don’t know, he did throw a perfect game last winter, he obviously knows how to change up scenarios and pitch location.

If all else, at least the Royals have Soria, its good to know that, and scary for the rest of baseball.
Adam says:

May 5th, 2008 at 11:39 am

I know this sounds risky and/or dumb, but what would be the harm in switching Tomko and Soria? If Tomko can ratchet up the velocity a little more ala Greinke last year, he might be passable. I say passable with Borowski in mind.
Chief says:

May 5th, 2008 at 12:32 pm

And what’s up with Bale? He didn’t strike me as the hot-head type.
kcghost says:

May 5th, 2008 at 1:15 pm

Thank goodness for two really good performances by Hochevar and Meche. When you only score six runs and yet win two games you know you had some good pitching. Stout starting pitching coupled with quality relief work is a real treat.

I don’t worry much about Pena. We knew what we were getting when we got him. The problem is the guys in the middle of the order: Teahen, Gordon, Guillen, and Butler. As a foursome they have been just awful. Not a one of them is close to an .800 OPS. Only one has a SLG above .400. And, I suppose it is my memory, but they seem to never get a two-out hit that drives in more than one run.

All-in-all 14-16 with this group of hitters is pretty good.
Gene says:

May 5th, 2008 at 2:02 pm

kcghost: Astute analysis. My thoughts exactly.

Royals pitching is top notch right now, sans Bale throwing his fist into a door.
Big Lee says:

May 5th, 2008 at 4:43 pm

We knew what we were getting in Pena, that’s true, and he patched a gaping hole defensively at SS last year. That doesn’t mean we have to be satisfied with it, however. Pena has not improved offensively, and doesn’t seem to have any desire to change his approach. Watch and learn from true hitters like Grudz, or spend some time at Omaha working on whatever his approach is. We now have other options, not that Callaspo or Aviles is a permanent fix, but their defense cannot be any less professional than Pena’s offense. Pena may be the long-term answer, but he doesn’t seem to have an interest in improvement as long as his name is on the lineup card each night.
gbewing says:

May 5th, 2008 at 5:33 pm

reading between the lines why would Bale punch a door in frustration if he just had a successful bullpen session? He wouldn’t - his shoulder is still a problem and that’s what set him off so in effect he wasn’t ready anyway
Rob says:

May 5th, 2008 at 5:39 pm

According to the Royals mailbag today, Aviles has been playing mostly 2B for Omaha. So he’s basically another Callaspo - decent hitter with limited defensive range. Nonetheless, I’d take my chances with Aviles/Callaspo at SS just so I don’t have to watch Pena bat anymore. I hope that Aviles is still hot when Hillman is ready to make the switch.
Rob says:

May 5th, 2008 at 6:04 pm

What a great outing by Tomko. If he’s the weakest link in our rotation then we’re in pretty good shape.

I’m ready for Guillen to sit out a few games. Play Gload in LF instead.
Gene says:

May 6th, 2008 at 5:44 am

I’m ready for Guillen to be released, honestly. He got his big money and he quit.
Gene says:

May 6th, 2008 at 5:46 am

He’s also no longer aided by steroids. This is who Guillen would’ve been w/o synthetic aide: a AAA slugger
awitt says:

May 6th, 2008 at 6:37 am

The Red Sox kept Papelbon as closer and the Royals should keep Soria there for the same reasons.
The Royals need a SS that has some offensive ability (Rafael Furcal, free agent to be with Braves history?) and one more hitter (1B, OF Adam Dunn free agent, shift Teahen I can dream) to be a threat to score runs.
Another young guy should emerge for the rotation, (Davies, Rosa, Cortes) and the Royals would have a strong 1 through 12 on the pitching staff, with lefties and right handed power in the pen and Soria at the backend. Are the Mariano comparisons ridiculous?
Gene says:

May 6th, 2008 at 6:54 am

Nope, hes is the new Mariano, thats why figuring out where he should be/protecting him is so important.

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Craig Brown

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