MVN - a Kansas City Royals blog
Royals Authority
Searching for Jack Cust
As Ervin Santana and Brett Tomko matched zeroes through seven innings last night, I became obsessed with the fact that the Royals need another bat. One stinking run (as the KC Star pointed out this morning - although I don’t think they used the work ’stinking’) and the Royals bring in Joakim Soria for the ninth and last night’s 4-0 defeat has a far different outcome.
A bat to jack a Santana mistake out of the park (assuming he ever made one last night) or to drive a ball into a gap to score Grudzielanek after his double to lead off the fourth inning. That is all we needed to avoid having to second guess Trey Hillman for letting Tony Pena Jr. bat in the bottom of the eighth of a scoreless game (Miguel Olivo anyone?). We would not have to wonder about removing Ramon Ramirez (a true swing and miss guy) with a runner on third and one out in the ninth for Jimmy Gobble or for opting to go with Joel Peralta after Gobble surrendered the go ahead single (Leo Nunez anyone?). But I digress…
The Royals are not and should not sign Barry Bonds. He is a distraction that a young team does not need. If Dayton Moore wanted to add a proven, veteran bat he would have gone after Frank Thomas when he became available.
The Royals should not and will not mortgage the future for eight or ten more wins this season, either. You want Brandon Wood from the Angels (or insert the name of your favorite hitting prospect here) and you have to pay big time. We all want a better shortstop, but do you really want to surrender three prospects for them? Even then, do we know if Wood or Hu from the Dodgers will really hit in the majors?
No, for this year and this year only, Kansas City needs Jack Cust. Yes, we all laugh at Cust in the field (he makes Adam Dunn look graceful and Jose Guillen look like a gazelle). We chuckle as he flailed his way to 164 strikeouts in 124 games, but the guy did hit 26 home runs last year and posted a .408 on base percentage. All that and the A’s gave up exactly NOTHING to get him. You want a quick fix that gets the Royals to 78 wins instead of 72 and gives the likes of Gordon and Butler time to develop? Find the next Jack Cust.
Now, you could certainly insert the name Craig Brazell here. All he did in 2007 was hit 39 minor league home runs, which netted him exactly five plate appearances for Buddy Bell and a nice contract in Japan for this season. Still, those numbers were out of nowhere for Brazell and viewed (rightfully) with skepticism by just about everyone. Keep in mind, although no one seemed to want Jack Cust, he went to Oakland with 200 minor league home runs on his resume. Yes, it would have been prudent to give Craig Brazell 15 September games to prove or disprove that 2007 was a mirage, but that ship has sailed.
When looking for the next Cust, one obviously might look to one’s own organization (stop laughing). People are hopping on the Mike Aviles bandwagon after his 344/371/680 start that includes 14 doubles and 6 home runs. I like him, although he is a subpar defensive player at the position he would be called up to play (shortstop - he made 40 errors a few years back in Wichita). Also, as good as those numbers look, they are virtually identical to those of Shane Costa (331/367/585, 6 HR, 12 2B) and I don’t hear anyone clamoring for him.
Omaha also has some power, but it comes in the person of Ryan Shealy (8 HR, .197 ave) and Jason Smith (8 HR, .238 ave). Okay, so the kind of help I’m looking for is not in Omaha.
There is no science to my search for Jack Cust Jr., but here are some veteran type guys who likely could be had for next to nothing. These guys are basically the Craig Brazell/Aaron Guiel/Shane Costas of other organizations, but maybe one of them is ready to rake in the majors if given a chance.
Let’s start with a name most of you will recognize: Dallas McPherson. Currently in AAA for Florida, the former hot prospect is hitting 284/400/636 with 10 home runs. The Angels finally gave up on him over the winter and Florida signed him to play third only to go in a different direction. McPherson struggled mightily in the majors over three partial seasons, but did hit 18 homers in 117 games. Florida might have him overvalued, but it might be worth a phone call.
Nelson Cruz is toiling in AAA for Texas. He had to pass through waivers to get there and did, so the price for this guy would likely by the standard PTBNL. Cruz slugged .698 in AAA last season and is currently slugging .758 with 11 homers this season with a .511 on-base percentage. An abject failure in the majors for the Rangers, you have to wonder what a change of scenery might do for him.
Next on my shopping list is Yankee farmhand Shelley Duncan, who has an OPS of 1.172 in AAA thus far. He also his seven homers in 34 games for the Yankees in 2007 after pounding 25 in AAA. With 128 minor league homers and the Yankees in dire straits for pitching, would it take more than Kyle Davies or Brett Tomko to get him?
Okay, now comes the guy I really like. If you’ve heard of him, give yourself a gold star. The next Jack Cust might just be Mike Hessman of the Tigers’ organization. A first/third baseman, it is hard to see where he would ever get a shot with Detroit, particularly given that Mike is already 30 years old. He hit four home runs in 17 games for Detroit last season and has 254 minor league homers in his career.
This seaon, Hessman currently has 11 homers, 8 doubles and 2 triples to go with a line of 296/368/687 in Toledo. Mike has hit 19 or more home runs in TEN different minor league seasons and slugged 28, 24 and 31 dingers the last three seasons in AAA. I will be the first to admit that a guy who has essentially played AAA ball since 2002 may very well not be able to translate any success into the majors. Still, isn’t that what Jack Cust was about this time last year? A journeyman strikeout artist unwanted by everyone?
Maybe I should heed my own advice and just swallow hard and ride out 2008 as Butler and Gordon hopefully develop into All-Star caliber mashers. We can wait for Jose Guillen to get hot, which he almost inevitably will, and hope that Mark Teahen finds the power that made him so good in 2006. The Royals are not making the playoffs this year and they don’t have to face Ervin Santana every night anyway. By the way, MY GOD that guy was dealing last night!
Still, if the price of Mike Hessman is say, Joel Peralta, I say go get him and see what he can do. If you can win six or eight more games in 2008 without damaging your plan for the future, why not do it? If all Hessman or Duncan or Cruz or whomever are worth is one run a week and that run comes in the seventh inning last night and leads to Joakim Soria pitching the ninth in a save situation, they are worth the small price it would take to get them.
When Brett Tomko give you seven innings of two hit shutout ball, you almost HAVE to take advantage. If the next Jack Cust is out there and you, like me, believe there actually is a difference between winning 78 games and winning just 72 games, then the Royals should try to find him.
This entry was posted
on Tuesday, May 6th, 2008 at 7:18 am and is filed under Uncategorized.
You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
THE AUTHOR
RECENT ARTICLES BY DIVISION RIVALS
ARCHIVE
SPONSORS
Online Seats
Kansas City Royals Tickets Kansas City Chiefs tickets
Ticket Specialists
KC Royals Tickets Chiefs Schedule
Tickets4U
Kansas City Royals Tickets All Star Tickets Kansas City Chiefs
Coast to Coast Tickets
Kansas City Royals Tickets Kansas City Chiefs Tickets Tickets to Concerts Tickets Ð MLB Baseball Tickets Ð World Series
Great Seats
Kansas City Royals Tickets Kansas City Football Tickets Michigan Football Tickets Final Four Tickets Country Music Tickets
27 Responses to “Searching for Jack Cust”
May 6th, 2008 at 7:46 am
I think I would rather see a move that helps the Royals next year. You know, identify your most glaring weakness and look to upgrade it.
The first thing I would do is move Guillen WAY down the lineup. He is clearly not the best 4th-hitter right now. I might even sit him and put Gathright in the OF. Play Butler at 1B and Olivo at DH.
The second thing I would do is put Callaspo at SS and see what happens. Last year, everyone was saying that Butler could never play 1B. Guess what? He can. So let’s try it with Callaspo at SS.
The third thing I would do is target some position of need against another team’s surplus and see if I could work a deal for a long-term solution at that position. I don’t know what that position might be, but catcher, SS come to mind for this year. If you are looking for next year, include OF, 1B, and 2B.
As far as speculating about what Hillman SHOULD have done last night, it’s a little pointless. Santana was lights-out. He’s 6-0 for a reason.
May 6th, 2008 at 8:46 am
PITCH COUNTS.
At the bottom of the second what was each Pitcher’s total count?
Santana: 17
Tomko: 29
What does that mean? That means that the first two innings set a precedent for the entire game:
1. Santana got out of the first two innings in less than 9 pitches per inning. That’s not even 3 pitches per batter. That means a couple things–we’re swinging early and we’re failing. One horrendous caught-stealing by DDJ saves 3 pitches from Santana. If we could take just two more pitches per player, Santana is out in the 7th or 8th inning and we get a chance to see their bullpen.
2. Tomko was perfectly on pace to get through 6 innings in 100 pitches (he did). This means that the Angels were assured that they would get a crack at our bullpen–and clearly not all of them are Soria.
=====
Pitchcounts, fellas. It is the heart of every problem with our team. More plate discipline means more pitches taken. It also means more walks. If we don’t make bone-headed base running mistakes (and creating outs), the pitcher has to make more pitches. If the opposing starter makes more pitches, it means we see their bullpen sooner.
On the other end, the fewer pitches it takes to get off the mound, the further our starters can go. Meche is exhibit A. Meche goes over 100 in both of his last starts but only gets to the 6th or 7th in each. If he can get those outs in fewer pitches, he gets to the 8th and saves a bit of our bullpen—and that has a multiple game impact and directly changes the outcome of THIS game when Soria can’t go 3 nights in a row.
Pitchcounts, fellas. It’s pretty easy.
May 6th, 2008 at 8:51 am
Clark - great topic, I think the lack of a consistent #3 hitter is the problem, no one on the team is ready for that spot. I also agree with Chief to try to solve for it long term if possible (by the way, I think Callaspo gets the SS spot in 24 more days, Trey/GMDM put the “30 days to show us he can hit sign on at the 30 day mark). This year we should determine whether we have/or can get what we need at SS, 2B, catcher/backup catcher, outfield, DH and closer (to move Soria to the rotation). We all hope that Billy Batter can play 1B, as it would be easier to fill the DH spot with utility players. But I am not sure if a Jack Cust type could handle that #3 spot, the AAAA guys mentioned are more likely to need to be tucked in at a less important spot in the lineup to see if they can blossom. That leaves us with the key need that is really driving us down this year, a proven #3 or #4 who can produce and take the pressure off the young hitters and the young pitchers that could retard/damage their development. Barry Baggage has his negatives, but he is exactly what we need from the hitting ability perspective, and the idea is only to get him for 1-2 years on the cheap until the young guns are ready (and flip him in a trade or let him go earlier if they get ready earlier). The idea is whether the negatives would outweigh the positives. We could take the Mitchell/MLB baseball approach of amnesty for past sins, and at least he is not the “how could it get worse” publicity machine of Roger Clemens and his questionable assistance to 15 years old aspiring singers. DMGM should check closely to see whether the perjury charge is dead, should run some consumer insight groups to see fan reaction, and proceed accordingly. Barry Baggage is exactly the kind of proven hitter that we need to allow this team to continue to develop, instead of begin to implode. I would at least like to know more.
May 6th, 2008 at 9:23 am
Last winter, I posted the opinion that IF steroids and HGH are REALLY out of baseball, then runs/game, and HRs would return to norms. Which means that pitching becomes much more important than in years past. So I decided to look at American League data for those two stats. To provide balance (due to AL expansion) I included HR/G.
As a baseline, I chose 1970-75.
Year R/G HR HR/G
1970 4.17 1746 .897
1971 3.87 1484 .768
1972 3.47 1175 .632
1973 4.28 1552 .798
1974 4.10 1369 .703
1975 4.30 1465 .761
Now look at the numbers from 03-08
Year R/G HR HR/G
2003 4.86 2499 1.101
2004 5.01 2605 1.149
2005 4.76 2437 1.075
2006 4.97 2546 1.123
2007 4.90 2252 0.993
2008 4.40 391* 0.861
*391 is actual. It projects to 1953 over a full season.
All data from baseball-reference.com
I know this is a small sample size and hitters get better as the weather warms up. But, if this trend holds true, prepare for a return to the norms in both runs per game and homers.
Just a thought.
May 6th, 2008 at 9:38 am
Why do you laugh when you look at our own system? I was looking at the minor league stats yesterday for this very answer. Seems to me Kila Kaaihue in AA for the Naturals could be our version of Jack Cust (low average, high OBP, lots of home runs) minus the strike outs. His line this year is 244/394/535 with 8 HRs in 86 at bats. He has 21 walks vs. 13 SOs.
May 6th, 2008 at 9:41 am
Correction - the line listed above for Kila Kaaihue should read 244/394/929 (the 535 is his slugging, not OPS).
May 6th, 2008 at 9:59 am
Olivo leads the team in homers and he barely gets to bat. More of him and more Collaspo in late inning, must-score situations. Some form of incentive is due for Guillen. Should he be playing a position every night if his bat is impotent?
May 6th, 2008 at 10:29 am
why not Chris Carter of the Red Sox? he is essentially blocked by David Ortiz at DH and is a defensive liability at 1B. However he can rake and the red sox might be open to a trade if they can get decent middle relief back.
May 6th, 2008 at 10:43 am
I definitely agree with the premise of your post, which is excellent by the way.
We need to do something to boost the offense. In others words get in the “win now” mode. How can this team ever expect to go anywhere if they are perpetually in the “win in two years” mode?
We are waiting, and relying on our prospects to blossom, and we don’t know for sure that they ever will.
Do we know if Butler will ever be more than a singles hitter? Sure he’s shown great ability in all the minor league levels, but lots of others have done the same and not translated into major league talent. So far, I haven’t seen much from BB.
Do we know if Alex Gordon will ever have what it takes mentally to cut it as a #3 hitter? I’m beginning to doubt.
Iv’e already lost hope that Teahen will ever show anymore than he did in 07.
So what’s the future we’re pinning our hopes on these guys look like?
A team should always be in WIN NOW mode.
(Like the A’s)
May 6th, 2008 at 11:35 am
Dudes…the pitch count references are killing me. The Royals tried to be patient. Taking pitches is tough when they’re all strikes. Santana was on last night. That’s it. Nothing more. Nothing less. Santana didn’t walk a soul, threw 97 pitches and 69 of them were strikes.
May 6th, 2008 at 11:41 am
royals need to find crash davis
May 6th, 2008 at 11:41 am
zach — what is the current team P/PA for the Royals?
May 6th, 2008 at 11:55 am
JBOPP…I understand your perspective. I really do. But, last night had little to do with pitch counts. Santana deserves ALL of the credit. The guy has been dealin’ all season.
Also, as I stated before, there are a couple of schools of thought on taking first pitches and responding to pitch counts. I suggest that it wouldn’t matter which school of thought the Royals adopt (if any). They are not a good hitting team. When they do hit, there are very few extra-base hits. Too many single base hitters (Teahen, Gath, German, Grudy, DDJ, etc.) and not enough power. And, too many holes in the lineup with averages below the Mendoza line (Guillen and Pena). NO POWER!
May 6th, 2008 at 11:59 am
JBOPP…also please know that I am not trying to be belligerent in my frustration. I want you to know that I understand what you are saying (and sort of agree), but I do not believe it is the explanation for the lack of offense. That’s what I am trying to convey.
May 6th, 2008 at 12:35 pm
Is this another anti-gload post? Very subtle, I must say:) Anybody find it interesting that Hillman’s jap players couldn’t hit either? I’d like to think that the hitting will get gradually better as the year progresses, that Hillman will figure, per Chief, that Guillen needs to be down in the line up to avoid the swiss cheese effect, that you use gathright or replace him with a gap power line driver such as Costa. My guess would be they’ve already figured all this stuff and that major moves are in the works. I’d like to seem keep Pena, though.
May 6th, 2008 at 1:07 pm
I was really disappointed in the bullpen usage last night. Using Ramirez in the 8th is fine; bringing him back in for the 9th after struggling the previous innings was not. In a tie game at home with the opposing starter dominating, shouldn’t the goal be to extend the game until you get a chance at another pitcher? Not using Soria in the 9th was stupid. 0-0 in the 9th of a home game, there will never be a lead to protect so what is he being saved for?.
May 6th, 2008 at 1:42 pm
JBOPP: Pitch counts by team are interesting. There is not a large variation in the AL. Top 2 teams currently are TEX and OAK, both with 3.86 pitches per PA. Bottom 2 are LAA and MIN, with 3.61 and 3.67.
Royals rank 12th at 3.70 pitches/PA.
From the top to the bottom, assuming about 40 PA per game per team, is ONLY TEN PITCHES!
I think this sorta points out that GETTING ON BASE is the key factor in a team getting into the opponent’s bullpen - but that is sorta a ‘duh’ statement!
Then again, looking at the individual Royals, I see a strong correlation between the willingness to take pitches and offensive effectiveness. For the most part, our better hitters see more pitches per plate appearance:
German 4.80
DeJesus 4.00
Gordon 3.95
Teahen 3.87
Buck 3.83
Olivo 3.79
Guillen 3.69
Butler 3.67
Grud 3.59
Callaspo 3.57
Pena 3.52
Gload 3.29
Gathright 3.24
My personal observations are that German needs to play more (career 381 OBP as a Royal), Butler would benefit from being more selective, Pena and Gload are NOT everyday starters, and Gathright should serve as a pinch runner only.
May 6th, 2008 at 3:29 pm
I agree with the idea that run totals are down because steroid use is down. Injuries are up as well, it all goes hand in hand.
May 6th, 2008 at 3:45 pm
Hey Clark-Craig -anyone I’m curious about Gobble last night- came in to face the LH Kotchman -check makes sense- throws 1 pitch and I thought it was a decent pitch but Kotchman had a nice idea of what he wanted to do with it to get the run home- so he brings in Peralta -I’m thinking ok Hillman is serious about the lefty/righty matchups here- but it was Garret Anderson another lefty up- so why take Gobble out- I’m not saying it was wrong just looking for the angle-was Hillman pissed at Gobble? told to pitch specific location and didn’t or something or is there some weird GA stat vs Gobble- (Kotchman was hitting over .500 vs lh so it wasn’t that either)
May 6th, 2008 at 11:01 pm
I was thinking perhaps Richie Sexon from mariners. With us helping Angels win, Mariners is now 7.5 games behind. The way it goes, they could be out pretty soon while if we can remain within 4 5 games, we are still contenders.
Sexson has power and this is his contract year so you are not going to have to take on a huge contract and I am sure he cannot wait to leave Safeco.
No matter what at least Sexson is a better first baseman than Butler and he is good friend with Meche and knows Guillen. And who knows? Perhaps he would be our answer to first base next year with cheaper price tag since he really didn’t have good 3 4 years till now.
May 6th, 2008 at 11:15 pm
I think the Royals should try a rotation of Meche, Bannister, Greinke, Hochever, and Davies. It would be young and worth a try. If it worked it would be a rotation set for years.
May 7th, 2008 at 6:15 am
Gene,
Wouldn’t one expect injuries to be DOWN if steroid use decreased? Perhaps I just don’t have a good understanding of how steroids work, but I would think injuries would be down but recovery times would increase.
Jeremy: Richie Sexson definitely has power, but he hit around .200 last year and is around that same number this year. We don’t need any more .200 hitters in this lineup.
May 7th, 2008 at 6:47 am
Ryan- Ya, you could look at it both ways. All these “quad pulls” and the like ‘muscle’ injuries I think are happening because these guys bodies are coming off steroids. Thus, their bodies are reacting much like that off someone coming off years of heroin abuse; its not pretty. Thats my theory, I could be way off.
As for the next Jack Cust… was Jose Guillen not supposed to be that guy? Just saying.
May 7th, 2008 at 6:55 am
Steroids allow muscles to recover more quickly than usual from exercise which allows for guys to body build more regularly and increase muscle mass with daily workouts. Think about how this benefits a pitcher pitching every five days. Allows arms to recover quickly from a 100 pitch performance. Roger Clemens.
May 7th, 2008 at 7:00 am
Right, so its like a synthetic human body being brought down to a ‘real’ body. Thats not easy on a non-steroid enhanced body.
May 7th, 2008 at 7:06 am
Gene - I’m saying we need Jose Guillen AND the next Jack Cust.
Jeremy - I think the Royals probably could have had Sexson over the winter, the rumor was the Mariners were shopping him and willing to eat some salary. KC, like everyone else, apparently passed. I’ve thought about him, but even at his decreased rate, he probably commands a price over and above what the Royals should pay for a quick fix.
Ewing - I wondered the same thing about Gobble. I think your idea that Jimmy did something Hillman didn’t like (other than serve up a hit) might be the reason for the quick change.
Alex - Carter is another guy who fits the mold, although the Sox may still value him too much.
JVG - Kaahuie does not excite me as he hits for an extremely low average and really does not have the power numbers that some of the guys I’m talking about have put up. He is now into his third time around at AA, so he frankly should be dominating at that level.
Great comments everyone.
May 7th, 2008 at 7:20 am
Agreed that the Gobble scenario was odd; I just don’t think Hillman believes in him.
Cust was a stroke of luck; I hope the Royals find that luck. I’m with the camp that Kaahuie is not that stroke of luck.
Leave a comment