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This Offense Is Offensive
As I mentioned on Friday, if you haven’t been reading the comments you’ve been missing on a discussion about the cause of the Royals offensive ineptitude. Yeah, a popular topic.
The argument has been made that the Royals are an impatient team with hacktastic tendencies. There are a couple of ways to tell if a team is in fact, impatient. Obviously, one way to tell is whether or not they draw walks. It appears despite the lip service paid to on base percentage in spring training, the Royals are still horribly challenged when it comes to drawing a free pass.
The average major league team has drawn 133 walks so far this season. Here are the bottom five teams ranked by total walks:
| Team | Walks |
|---|---|
| Marlins | 115 |
| Mariners | 115 |
| Angels | 111 |
| Giants | 110 |
| Royals | 98 |
| Twins | 83 |
There was a tie, that’s why the list has six teams.
The Royals placement of 29 out of 30 teams comes a no surprise to anyone reading this. Now let’s look at the average number of pitches hitters are seeing for their teams this year. Surely, we’ll see some most, if not all, of the same teams that are listed above.
The bottom five teams ranked by pitches seen per plate appearance:
| Team | P/PA |
|---|---|
| Giants | 3.72 |
| Royals | 3.71 |
| Twins | 3.69 |
| Braves | 3.66 |
| Angels | 3.63 |
Yep. There are a bunch of repeat offenders.
So from these two lists, we see that the Royals are indeed a hacktastic group, swinging early, often and badly.
But wait a sec…
Let’s go a little deeper.
Swinging Away
Fangraphs is keeping track of plate discipline and there are some interesting things to be found about our Kansas City Royals.
Let’s start with O-Swing %, which is a percentage of swings a hitter takes at a ball that is outside of the strike zone. In other words, it’s the percentage of times a hitter swings at a pitch that would be called a ball if he exhibited some discipline and left the bat on his shoulder. It’s a great measure of plate discipline.
The average major league hitter swings at pitches outside the zone around 23% of the time. Here’s how Royals hitters are doing this year:
| Player | O-Swing % |
|---|---|
| Callaspo | 12.6% |
| Gathright | 13.0% |
| DeJesus | 17.7% |
| Butler | 18.5% |
| Buck | 19.6% |
| Teahen | 20.5% |
| Gordon | 21.7% |
| Grudzielanek | 25.8% |
| Gload | 26.1% |
| Guillen | 28.1% |
| Pena | 34.2% |
| Olivo | 40.0% |
That’s actually not too bad. Seven of the 12 Royals hitters (Esteban German has been excluded because he has only 22 at bats) are better than major league average in swinging at pitches outside the zone. On the surface that seems pretty solid.
I haven’t compared the Royals to other teams, but Aaron Gleeman posted the same numbers for the Minnesota Twins last week. It’s a useful comparison because if you remember from above, only the Twins have fewer walks than the Royals. He looked at 11 hitters and on the Twins, only four were better than major league average.
Fangraphs went a little deeper and examined the correlation between swinging at pitches outside the strike zone and how it relates to walks and strikeouts. Not surprising they found players with a high O-Swing % also had low walk rates. More interesting was the fact that a high O-Swing % does not correlate to high strikeout rates. That’s probably because we’re talking about professional hitters who are in the major leagues for the fact they can have their bat meet a ball on a regular basis - no matter where the pitch is located. I’d be interested to see how a high O-Swing % correlates to batting average though, because I’m thinking that although hitters can make contact, they rarely make good contact when swinging at pitches outside of the strike zone.
So despite some exceptions (ahem, Mr. Pena and Mr. Olivo) the Royals as a team don’t swing at crazy, stupid at pitches out of the zone. I see this as good news: That for the most part, the Royals do exhibit some form of plate discipline and can be counted on not to swing at an overabundance bad pitches.
Making Contact
So now, let’s turn our attention to the pitches that stay in the strike zone and how the Royals do when they swing at strikes. On Fangraphs, this is known as Z-Contact % and it is the percentage when a hitter makes contact on pitches inside the strike zone. Contact includes fouls. Major league average for making contact when swinging at pitches in the zone is around 88.3%.
Here’s how the Royals look:
| Player | Z-Contact % |
|---|---|
| DeJesus | 97.9% |
| Callaspo | 97.5% |
| Gathright | 93.3% |
| Grudzielanek | 92.2% |
| Butler | 92.1% |
| Gload | 89.5% |
| Gordon | 87.3% |
| Pena | 86.0% |
| Guillen | 83.7% |
| Teahen | 82.1% |
| Buck | 81.5% |
| Olivo | 75.2% |
Now we’re onto something.
Six of our 12 hitters are above average when it comes to making contact on pitches inside the strike zone, but look at our representatives. The Royals’ top four percentages belong to hitters with zero power potential. Callaspo and Gathright have almost 150 plate appearances between them and a total of four extra base hits. The Royals best contact hitters aren’t power threats.
And don’t think you have to lack power to have a Z-Contact % higher than 90%. Perhaps you’ve heard of players like Albert Pujols (96.2%), Connor Jackson (94.6%) and Chase Utley (92.2%).
Unfortunately for the Royals, the heart of the order is below average when it comes to making contact on pitches in the zone. As we’ve seen in recent games, getting on base isn’t always the problem. But as Clark noted, moving them to scoring position and bringing them around to score seems to be a huge chore.
The RBI Issue
I’m not a fan of the RBI stat, but I am a fan of RBI percentage. RBI percentage is simply the number of runners a player drives in, divided by the total runners on base when he’s at bat. It’s a good stat that gives us a better idea of how a player (or team) is in a run scoring situation.
And the Royals collective RBI percentage is awful.
For some perspective, the current RBI% leader is Josh Hamilton who drives in 26.2% of all base runners. Second is Emil Brown at 25.2%. I think I’m going to be sick. Anyway, above 20% is outstanding and above 17% is very good.
Here’s how the Royals are doing:
| Player | RBI % |
|---|---|
| DeJesus | 27.7% |
| Buck | 17.7% |
| Butler | 16.3% |
| Gload | 15.5% |
| Gordon | 15.4% |
| Guillen | 14.1% |
| Olivo | 12.2% |
| Pena | 12.1% |
| Callaspo | 9.4% |
| Teahen | 9.2% |
| Gathright | 7.7% |
| Grudzielanek | 6.9% |
DeJesus is quietly having an outstanding season. He’s not the leader in this category because I was looking at qualifiers and because of his injuries, he’s had only 97 at bats. Buck is the only other Royal who I would characterize as being very good at driving in runs, but he’s hovering close to the bottom of the “very good” range.
Otherwise, this is a disgusting table.
– Teahen has come to bat with a runner on third eight times. He’s driven in one of those runners. (12.5%)
– Guillen has come to bat with a runner on second 29 times. He’s driven in four of those runners. (13.8%)
– Olivo has come to bat with a runner on second 28 times. He’s driven in one of those runners. (7.1%)
– Grudz has come to bat with a runner on second 20 times. He has yet to drive home a runner from second. (0.0%)
And on and on…
Conclusions
My feeling is plate discipline isn’t the problem for this team. I don’t have a problem with the Royals being among the bottom as far as pitches seen per plate appearance, because the data says they’re not swinging out of control.
Part of the problem is the fact they’re not making enough contact on pitches in the zone. If they’re swinging and missing at pitches, they’re either falling behind in the count or they’re striking out. Either way, it’s not a good situation.
And what compounds the lack of contact is the fact they can’t move runners around the bases.
The best contact guys are hitting at the top of the lineup which is ideal. But the meat of this lineup is woefully inadequate. Guillen, Gordon and Butler have been underperforming in RBI opportunities and Teahen no longer has any business hitting in the heart of the lineup.
There’s no easy solution to this. Guillen is supposed to warm up with the weather. Whatever. Butler and Gordon are in their second year and still developing so the jury’s still out on what their limited track record means. For better or for worse, these are our guys.
But simply put, this is not a lineup that is capable of scoring runs. It’s just not.
Dayton Moore has done an outstanding job repairing a pitching staff that was in tatters. It’s time for him to turn his attention to the lineup.
Sorry for the lengthy post. But I’m discussing the problems with the Royals offense. If you thought it would be short, you haven’t been paying attention. Thanks for reading.
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31 Responses to “This Offense Is Offensive”
May 12th, 2008 at 8:10 pm
Craig, thanks for putting your finger on the truth and for quantifying with specific numbers what we basically knew, that we can’t hit our way out of a wet paper bag sometimes.
GMDM/MTH, are you listening?
Can you imagine what our record would be if we didn’t play above average D, possess a pretty good bullpen, and every once in a while get a solid outing from a starting pitcher?
In most team sports, it is said that defense wins championships. In baseball, make that “defense and pitching win championships”. I know Trey Hillman can win with the type of team that the Royals have; his track record overseas is proof of this. But a team still has to score runs to win. A team that loses 1-0, 2-0, or 2-1 may have pitched well and may have played good defense, but it has still lost.
I’m not sure that we are terribly bereft of talent. The Royals’ personnel is not hopelessly pathetic, but its offensive approach has not been good and it is horribly bad in running the bases and in moving runners in key situations.
I think this season can be turned around, and in this remarkably weak/inept AL Central, there is still time. But obviously if KC keeps playing like they have (after bolting from the starting gate 6-2, they have gone 10-19), they will likely bury themselves in hole from which they will not be able to escape.
May 12th, 2008 at 8:19 pm
Continuing my thought from above, if the Royals were to continue to play at this pace (having lost 19 of their last 29) the rest of the season, they would finish 59-103.
Sound familiar?
Please, Royals, get it together, or this is going to be a long season!
May 12th, 2008 at 10:56 pm
Darn it, I just typed an entire post and somehow it got deleted. This has happened before and is quite irritating!
Anyway, Craig, I want to tell you that though I am NOT a “stats geek” (term used with no malice whatsoever), I am glad you are. Your breaking down of the stats along with you insightful analysis is useful and well received by even me. 8^)
Having read the post and your directive to GMDM to turn his attention to the lineup… well, that is all fine and good but what can be done NOW? Shouldn’t MTH be working with an “optimum lineup” based on performance and matchups? I mean… sure some of the sample sizes might be too small… and sure some of the stats are continuing to move based on a player getting hot or cold… but really, as an example, should Buck be hitting higher in the lineup DESPITE his poor average and ability to be a base cloggerer upperer? 8^)
I guess I am wondering just what the optimum lineup is now that MOST of us agree that, at least for the time being, Mark Teahen doesn’t belong in the top seven of the lineup. And the other thing that MOST fans agree with is that Pena should NOT be starting while Callaspo should be. And Grudz’ stats seem to be all over the place so where should he fit in? He certainly wouldn’t be hitting #2 on a GOOD team would he? Therefore, I might suggest the following….
CF DeJesus
SS Callaspo
1B Butler
LF Guillen
3B Gordon
C Buck
(now it gets trickier)
2B Grudz
DH Olivo
RF Teahen
But I might flip-flop the last two in the lineup or even bring up Aviles after trading a German or someone.
Anyway, I know we don’t have much to work with except some minor league pitching depth and lower-level hitters. I just am NOT ready for us to use that “currency of baseball (pitching depth)” to trade for some minor piece. If we make a trade… make it a good trade that is for a SIGNIFICANT piece of the future. Otherwise, stay the course and take our chances with the BEST hitter in next months draft.
It is a catch 22 though because I do want to win very badly RIGHT NOW just like everyone else. I guess I just don’t believe the AL Central is as weak as it currently appears. I STILL expect both the Tribe and the Tiggers to improve dramatically this summer and for the Royals to lose touch with them in the standings. Therefore, keep our pieces in place to build for the future. Or PROVE ME WRONG Royals and start winning REGULARLY NOW!!!
Go Royals!!! C-ya, AusSteveW
May 12th, 2008 at 11:18 pm
Holy… I was going to suggest something loftly like, the Royals need to play better ball. But I think the way you guys explained it is pretty good, too.
May 13th, 2008 at 4:55 am
(A short quasi-troll before I get the time to make something longer and more constructive):
Buck’s only second in RBI%? BENCH HIM NOW!!!
(Alright, got that out of my system)
May 13th, 2008 at 5:44 am
I think the root of the problem is that the Royals lack power. Opposing pitchers have no incentive to throw pitches out of the zone before strike 2. What’s the worst that could happen? The middle of our lineup might hit a double. Ooo! Scary!
May 13th, 2008 at 5:52 am
As I had said in my expectations for the 2008 Royals is that it all depended on guys we already had. There was/is nothing on the farm that is remotely major league ready as a hitter. We needed Gordon, Butler, and Teahen to step up and deliver. Unfortunately Gordon and Butler are still struggling to find there way in the bigs and until they do break through we have no way of knowing if they ever will. And as much as we like Teahen and appreciate his positive attitude in dealing with the position switches he has had to deal with, the truth of the matter is he is just a patty-cake hitter.
To get mad at Buck, Pena, Gload, Gathright, etc., is foolish. All these guys are what they are. To ask one of them to suddenly produce at a level above what they have historically shown is unreasonable.
May 13th, 2008 at 5:53 am
Great post, Craig. A quick stat to add that I happened to notice the other day (the fact that I ‘notice’ stuff like this, probably does prove I’m a geek): The Royals lead the AL in number of first pitches put in play (188), but are just 10th in batting average on first pitches in play - further proving your point.
May 13th, 2008 at 6:25 am
Buck’s RBI% of 17% hardly solidifies himself as a mainstay in this lineup. The fact that he ranks 2nd with that kind of number is simply a testament to have poor of an offensive team this is. It has little to do with “drawing” walks by taking strikes. Correctly, it is about swinging at pitches that aren’t in the zone. More so, it’s about being crappy hitters.
I think Butler, Gordon and even Guillen will evolve.
GMDM knew this lineup was a problem which is why he tried to sign Hunter or Kuroda. This will be done. Rome wasn’t built in a day.
May 13th, 2008 at 7:09 am
Moore likes to bring boys from Atlanta over like Davies and Pena…he needs to bring that Teixeira fellow over.
May 13th, 2008 at 7:13 am
I just went and checked the Omaha numbers and there is one guy that might be able to help: Mike Aviles. Does some one know why he is beginning his 3rd year in Omaha?? At age 27 he is no candidate for stardom but he has steadily moved up the Royals organization since being drafted in 2003 without ever having been given a shot at the big club. He is pounding the ball at a 1.000+ OPS and is listed as an SS.
May 13th, 2008 at 7:33 am
@kcghost: Somewhat addressed at http://mvn.com/milb-royals/ in post #2.
@Zack Daddy: So do you not agree with Craig’s characterization of 17% as the line between good and very good? Sure, I don’t think Buck is an All-Star candidate, but if the goal is to up the run production now, you don’t sit him. You find a way to play Olivo and Buck at the same time. That probably means Olivo DHing and Butler at first. Personally, I’d like to see that happen steadily for a while.
And of course, if you’re after run production, Pena doesn’t start at shortstop. But that drum is beaten every day now, isn’t it? :P
May 13th, 2008 at 7:56 am
Great job, Craig.
The numbers really indicate how good DeJesus is year. Maybe Hillman should put him back at #3 - nobody else wants to hit there.
May 13th, 2008 at 10:29 am
I really like the idea of DDJ hitting #3. Along with that, how about moving Teahen to leadoff? He has a decent OBP and is a good base runner. If he could concentrate on just getting on base (and not on SLG) he might get even better at it.
May 13th, 2008 at 10:36 am
Yes, someone please get this data to GMDM and MTH, bring up Aviles to see what he can do, find out this year (before the trading deadline) if Aviles and Callaspo are acceptable middle infiedlers, if Butler can play first, give yourself plenty of time to figure that out to make sure you get it right
May 13th, 2008 at 10:37 am
ADAM…before I begin, let me preface by saying that I believe that John Buck could be the anti-Christ. Not for certain, but now you know what I think of him in general.
I like Olivo better than Buck for his power and his ability to gun down runners. Honestly, Adam, I don’t think there’s much you can say that would make me appreciate Buck. It’s just one of those hang ups that I have. I certainly don’t like the idea of Buck and Olivo in the same lineup regularly. You can throw contrary data at me again and again. Wouldn’t matter. I don’t believe the guy is a gamer, a winner. Too passive. My favorite Buck moment is when his jaw got jacked by Fat Elvys.
Rather, I think our four OFers should be in the lineup regularly and often with one of them servind as a DH. This means Butler has to play 1B regularly. That’s my lineup of choice; however, it really makes little difference. I can think of very few combinations with this roster that generate to much change from the status quo. This team needs another bat or two (but doesn’t every team). I like Guillen as the DH cuz I think he’s a crummy (passive) OFer.
May 13th, 2008 at 2:12 pm
Zack:
I’d concede the 4 OF vs. 2 catchers point to you, if Gathright didn’t have a walk rate as Pena. If you’re going to jack less than ten homers in your entire career, you should at least get on base, no?
I can think of two changes that will at least help:
Callaspo for Pena - 90 OPS+ gain
Olivo for Gload - 49 OPS+ gain
For a total of an added 139 OPS+. Which is better than any single batter in the lineup right now.
If you swap Olivo for Buck and play 4 OF, you’re essentially suggesting:
Olivo for Buck - 19 OPS+ gain
Gathright for Gload - 14 OPS+ loss
Callaspo for Pena - 90 OPS+ gain
A 95 OPS+ gain isn’t bad (It’s like having another John Buck in the lineup :P), but it’s not 139. Most of that gain comes, of course, from the Pena swap — he really needs to take a few months and completely destroy that five mile long swing. If he can develop a shorter swing and hit for contact, I’d take him at SS forever.
I will point out here that Olivo’s OPS+ is freakishly high this season; Buck’s lifetime OPS+ is 5 points higher than Olivo’s.
I understand disliking a player for intangible reasons, I really do, but considering that Olivo for Buck is a 19 OPS+ gain right now (and more likely to be a 5 OPS+ loss), I don’t see how you can actually want it to happen.
Gathright for Guillen defensively is nice, but right now, Gathright is an offensive downgrade, and our defense is adequate to the task at the moment.
May 13th, 2008 at 2:14 pm
And if anyone’s wondering, Gload’s OPS+ is 25 points higher, lifetime, than Gathright’s. I’m sure with Hillman’s style, he’d love to have Joey on the basepaths, but the offensive numbers just don’t work out.
May 13th, 2008 at 2:32 pm
Now, would there be all these offensive woes that you are complaining about if KC would have signed some REAL offensive players this offseason?
NO!!!
Thank me
May 13th, 2008 at 4:16 pm
Adam…tonight’s lineup isn’t disheartening. I kinda like it a lot…even with Buck in it. I hope I haven’t sounded like Buck is the cause of this team’s woes. On the contrary, he’s producing as he usually does…with profound mediocrity.
You’ve convinced me, Adam. Buck can be the everyday catcher as long as I get my four OFer/DH.
May 13th, 2008 at 4:59 pm
I know the offensive woes are not Pena’s fault, but he’s the most salient symptom of them. Send him to Omaha, to send a message that his swing is ridiculous. There is no other way to put it. If he will shorten up his swing and make contact (and consider working counts), even if the numbers don’t make a jump, then bring him back up. He must improve his approach. Yes, I know his defense is a great asset. His approach at the plate approaches insubordination, however. Bring up Aviles, and live with the bad defense until Pena gets the message. In the meantime we’ll figure out if Aviles is any more than a AAAA player.
May 13th, 2008 at 6:22 pm
It’s hard not to wonder what other moves will come at the end of May - in addition to moving Pena and replacing him with Aviles. Despite Gathright’s speed, you have to wonder whether this team could use Costa’s power as the 4th outfielder. Shealy is also hitting the ball pretty well recently, although that move seems a bit further away. I think a move that includes sending German somewhere is a likely end of May possibility, perhaps with Jason Smith replacing him. It’s pretty safe to assume one move, but I’m looking forward to finding out what else Moore has planned to improve the run production on this team.
May 13th, 2008 at 6:52 pm
Is comment #19 an anti-Semitic remark? Not a cool play on words if you ask me. Next thing ya know, he’ll be calling John Buck the anti-Christ!
May 13th, 2008 at 7:04 pm
Zack - Yeah, it’s not the first time… Usually, I edit it out. Uncool.
May 13th, 2008 at 7:15 pm
Are my eyes deceiving me, or has Guillen been handling the stick pretty well lately? He was responsible for all three runs tonight.
Still way too many batters and way too few runs for my tastes. Gathright’s softball-style hitting just doesn’t cut it when you just need to get it out of the infield to score a run.
I’ll bet almost anything that Pena doesn’t get sent down.
Zack: If I was Hillman, you’d have a deal.
May 13th, 2008 at 7:58 pm
another nail biter tonight -these Royals make you earn every win-Grienke pitched like an ace-didn’t have best stuff- small strike zone ump- but he kept us in it and bullpen was lightsn out-
The O well punchless -frustrating at least Guillen played like a clean up hitter-
Hillman continues to be his unique self-he fascinates me- he does not manage by the book
8th ing Ramirez gets in a jam LH coming up he brings in the RH Nunez despite 2 LH in pen and the kid Joyce was killing us- worked fine
I actually wanted to see Soria in the 8th for once but hey we’ll take it
Pinch ran for Guillen in bottom of 8th after a double with German- standard common sense move in a tie game
Bulter walks and the unique move was pinch running for the secondary runner with Gload -the insurance run- one of those little things that 99% of the time means nothing-can’t hurt but the 1 time man oh man Trey called it
Don’t think baseball games change on smallest of details-
Gload slightly faster runner than Butler- thus makes the force out at 2nd a little more difficult
Gload much smarter baserunner than Butler and won’t make a stupid mistake to kill the ing like he did Sunday
Gload better shot at scoring insurance run
Gload better defensive player
result
Teahan dribbler up the middle Reneria has to rush it a little more and blows it German scores from 2nd
9th- Granderson tough hard grounder down the line-Gload makes a play Butler could not then makes a tricky throw that Butler could not(Soria great play as well)
little things Royals have to do to win
another one
Grudz stops a liner up the middle almost caught it but kept the runner at 3rd so Grienke has the chance to K IROD
Renteria similar play not only doesn’t get the out but allows winning run to score-
little things- KC fans have to sweat them all out
May 14th, 2008 at 5:24 am
there is more to plate discipline than swining at strikes and not swinging at balls
May 14th, 2008 at 7:23 am
Great article. It’s so helpful to see all the data laid out in front of you like this. Surely the R’s have people doing this type of statistical analysis and reporting to GMDM, right?!
I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again…start Callaspo over Pena!!
May 14th, 2008 at 8:04 am
I was really glad to see that there was not a collision on that last play between Granderson and Soria. I suppose Granderson could have gone after Soria and tried to jar the ball loose, but he didn’t, so hats off to him.
May 14th, 2008 at 9:53 am
8th inning last night was a choice between Nunez facing their rookie lefthanded hitter, and Gobble facing Marcus Thames, who Leyland most likely would have pinch hit for said lefthanded hitter.
Thames DESTROYS lefties; I think Hillman made the logical call.
May 14th, 2008 at 5:21 pm
Marcus Thames doesn’t destroy anybody- I’ll give you he’s better against LH than RH (.267) this year but Joyce was effective that game -he was their best hitter- and 2 guys later is Granderson who has a huge platoon split vs LH-
I’m not disagreeing with the move- but it was not by the book and was pointing out how Hillman often ignores LH/RH matchup-
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