Royals Authority

Bizarro Brian Bannister

By Craig Brown | June 23rd, 2008

If I told you before the game that Brian Bannister would walk four batters in the first two innings against the Colorado Rockies, you would have thought the Royals had dug themselves another early hole.

But if I had told you before the game that Bannister would have a no-hitter through 4.1 innings, you would have thought he was cruising and having one of his best starts of the season.

Weird.

Bannister was basically playing Russian Roulette all night. And instead of having one bullet and five empty chambers, he flip-flopped the odds - five bullets and one empty chamber.

Somehow, he survived.

Check out this line. It has to go down as one of the more unique outings from a Kansas City Royals starter this year.

7 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 0 ER, 6 BB, 5 SO

What’s the craziest thing about that line? That Bannister didn’t allow an earned run? Or how about the fact he struck out five batters, two off his career high? Or how about the six walks that matched a career high?

The only other time Bannister walked six in a game was back on April 21, 2006 in his fourth major league start. He went just five innings in that one, and while he took the loss that day, he only gave up one run. One run! This guy is the Baseball Enigma.

Although the second inning was impressive when he walked the bases loaded with one out and got Clint Barmes to hit into a 1-2-3 double play. That was fun to watch.

But that home run by Matt Holliday came on a truly awful pitch. A fastball at 87 mph up in the zone… Right in his wheelhouse. That Ryan Lefebvre said that it looked like an off speed pitch should be a clue at just how bad that pitch was. If the announcer can’t tell the difference between your fastball and your breaking stuff, you’re going to be in trouble.

But let’s face it… With a 4.47 ERA Bannister has been struggling this season. And before his epic six walk performance, his walk rate had actually dropped from last year. He was at 2.40 BB/9 IP last year and was at 1.94 BB/9 IP this season, so walks really haven’t been an issue. Until Monday, that is.

No, the problem has been the fact he’s become hittable this season. In those interviews that were all over the internet prior to spring training, Bannister stressed keeping his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) low. Last season, he’d had great success with a .266 BABIP. But this year, he’s exactly at .300. And his hit rate has jumped accordingly… From 8.51 H/9 IP in 2007 to 9.27 H/9 IP this year.

Why the jump in BABIP? Bannister will probably tell you it has to do with sequence of pitches and pitching behind in the count more often. But that argument doesn’t hold water. Look at how he’s performed this year in certain counts compared to last year:

Count	2007 AVG	2008 AVG
0-2	.023	.208
1-2	.188	.281
After 0-2	.139	.222
After 1-2	.198	.238

I used batting average against as a measure and looked at the times when he was truly “ahead” in the count. The first two lines are the exact counts when the at bats were resolved and the last two lines include all plate appearances that occurred after that particular count. His performance has declined across the board when he’s gotten ahead in the count.

He’s become a truly average pitcher. Not that there’s anything wrong with that. But he’s not the same pitcher we saw last year.

Teahen Power!

The Mark Teahen three run home run was something that, given the location of the pitch, I would not have expected. Low and away, it was the classic pitch for Teahen to take the other way. He did. Except instead of either missing the pitch completely or lofting a harmless flyball to left, he drove it out of the yard in left-center.

Earlier this season, even a couple of weeks ago, I would have said there’s no way he takes that pitch out of the yard. But he’s now hit six home runs in his last 25 games. Shades of 2006, he seems to be getting around on the ball more and driving it with some authority. Something he wasn’t doing for most of 2007 and the first part of this year.

Over his last 11 games, Teahen is hitting .306/.354/.467. What’s interesting about his OBP during this stretch is he’s scored only three runs - and two of them are on his own home runs. And that’s with the Royals winning.

I’m also duty bound to mention (and believe me, I hate invoking the dreaded RBI stat here) that he’s driven in only six runs in his last 15 games - his 3 RBI performance against the Yankees earlier this month and his 3 RBI performance on Monday. I will note that despite his current “hot” streak, he’s still batting just .219 with runners in scoring position. And, he’s driven in just 8.5% of all runners on base in his at bats - a horrible percentage. And do you want to know something really criminal? He’s now come to bat with a runner on third 29 times - and has driven just three of those runners home. From third base!

No way am I going to stick my neck out and declare the resurfacing of Mark Teahen ’06. But I will monitor the situation closely and jump on the bandwagon once it’s solidly in gear and at cruising speed.

But I’m betting it doesn’t happen.

A couple of other notes:

– Jose Guillen is now hitting .293. It’s a reminder that baseball ultimately is a game of averages - over the course of a 162 game season there will be ups and there will be downs. So it should be noted that Guillen is a career .275 hitter, who the last several seasons has lived between .311 and .283 when healthy. In other words, it took him two and a half months, but he’s finally where he should be. And where the Royals expected him to be when they signed him.

– Mike Aviles!

One of the perks of writing about fantasy baseball for Heater Magazine is that I get to play in a couple of “expert” leagues. We just added Aviles to our roster in one of those leagues. I’m very excited.

– Second game in a row Mark Grudzielanek has missed so that means it’s the second game in a row we’ve been graced with the presence of Tony Pena, Jr. He actually worked a walk after being down in the count 2-2. (OK, a two ball, two strike count isn’t really down in the count, but this is Pena we’re talking about.) Although I’m not sure we should be praising that plate appearance as balls number three and four were way off the plate.

In his next at bat in the sixth, he jumped ahead 2-0 before taking a strike. He flied out on the next pitch, earning kudos from Lefebvre for changing his approach and showing patience at the plate. The point being that the “old” Pena would have offered at at least one of the first two pitches that went for balls. Ehhhhh… Yes, his approach sucked (sucks) and was part of the reason he was hitting .159/.178/.195. But don’t ignore the fact that he’s just not that talented to begin with. That at bat was a prime example. Here he was, with a hitters count and Pena still couldn’t get around on an 88 mph fastball - he lofted a harmless fly ball to right.

I have no problems with announcers being “homers” but I do have problems with announcers trying to sell me B.S.

– The Royals are now 10-3 in interleague play and are scoring 5.8 runs per game against the NL.

– Jorge de la Rosa against Zack Greinke on Tuesday. The way the Royals are swinging the bats these days, this one will be fun to watch.

This entry was posted on Monday, June 23rd, 2008 at 9:02 pm and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

18 Responses to “Bizarro Brian Bannister”

Brandt says:

June 23rd, 2008 at 9:07 pm

I saw that Grudz is hurt with a back problem. Depending on how bad it is I think the Royals should think about putting him on the DL and calling up Butler. That would allow Mark to give his back a lot of rest, put Billy back in the lineup, and it would give the Royals time to look at Pena Jr. at short to decide whether to keep him on the roster.
Mark LaFlamme says:

June 23rd, 2008 at 10:17 pm

I think it’s clear that we will never go into a game with complete confidence based on who is on the mound. If we’ve seen anything this season, its that all of them are capable of an atrocious night even after a stellar start the week before. Our pitching staff is the Sybil of the majors.
At the same time, there are no starters so bad that they cause me dry heaves just to see them out there, either. Tomko was getting like that and Yabuta out of the bullpen will cause me to convulse every time. But Banny, Zack, Meche, Davis and Hochevar? My nerves are steady, at least going into the game.
I was never a fan of De La Rosa. We should be all over him like maggots on a dead dog. My prediction for tonight? Pain.
SDS says:

June 23rd, 2008 at 10:17 pm

Are the royals trying to keep billy down to extend his arbitration period? He seems to be hitting well in Omaha…not sure why he’s still down there.
steve y says:

June 24th, 2008 at 4:03 am

Yabuta changed his name to YaBlewit, Royals blowing it when the Good Lord gives Grud a sore back, not to have the good sense He gave a dog to put Collaspo out there to see if he can be a starter at 2B for us, ridiculous for GMDM to worry that someone would take Pena off waivers when we send him down to Omaha for a long while to see if he can ever learn to hit (probably not), also need to get our best Omaha outfielder up here to see if he can be a starter for us, Gathright cannot hit and is embarassing trying to bunt all the time, we have important and serious things we need to find out about our team this year, and we are wasting opportunities for that, though kudos for finding out that Aviles is a starter/keeper for us
Chris says:

June 24th, 2008 at 5:15 am

I think it’s about time to trade Brian Bannister. He’s not going to be a dependable pitcher when needed. He didn’t pitch well at all yesterday and hasn’t pitched real well all year. Yesterday he was lucky, very lucky.
Cut your losses and trade him before his trade value goes down. You could get a solid prospect for him right now.
Seth says:

June 24th, 2008 at 5:33 am

Brian must be pretty aware of his BABIP this season, I’d be surprised if he isn’t. He’s not challenging hitters, probably because he thinks his stuff will get hammered.

It must be getting close to the trade deadline. Grud has a back injury… what a surprise.
Big Lee says:

June 24th, 2008 at 6:06 am

Craig-Kudos on the numerous Seinfield references. It’s funny to those that notice, and doesn’t detract from the info for hardcore baseball fans.

Suppose Baltimore would consider trade of TPJ for Bynum? Both teams could move underachieving shortstops, and Baltimore has at least fessed up that it needs help at short. Bynum has been DFA’d by Baltimore. Give TPJ credit for “trying,” but this is the majors. He may not have the offensive talent to be here.

Brandt, that is a good idea about letting Grudz get his back in order. Someone posted that idea yesterday as well (maybe you). We have plenty of 2B types, so it’s not like we need to bring another up. The only reason to not bring Butler up is we are showcasing Gload. Here’s another idea: To get Olivo some ABs, how about letting him play 1B once in awhile? In that senario he could move to catcher in case of an emergency without losing the DH. Giants used thier veteran catcher at 1B Sunday, probably with the same thing in mind.
kcghost says:

June 24th, 2008 at 6:56 am

This run against the NL has been sweet. We are now standing at 10-3 against them. While its nice to win some ball games we shouldn’t forget we are really playing weak competition. Despite his problems Sunday how could anyone have looked at Lincecum and Hochevar and come up with Hochevar as the answer??

On other fronts has Hillman and/or GMDM lost their minds?? Is the fact Aviles done very well in his call up despite their resistance to him forced them to play TPJ when Grudz needs some downtime?? Why in the world wouldn’t you leave Aviles at SS and let Callaspo play 2B?? You did trade for the guy with that specific purpose in mind. Why is the braintrust unwilling to do what must be done. There is no point in TPJ sucking up a roster spot let alone playing time.
Adam says:

June 24th, 2008 at 7:14 am

kcghost: I couldn’t disagree with you more. Hochevar was much more of a sure bet. You could argue that his ceiling is lower, but the Royals were not alone in thinking that Lincecum would have been a risky pickup. At worst, Hochevar’s a middle of the rotation guy. Which is what the Royals need.

I think Hillman is being cautious right now, and putting TPJ in until he can assess whether each game is going to be a track meet or a pitcher’s duel. He did swap out TPJ for Callaspo at the right time in the Giants game, and I doubt he’d hesitate to do it again. Aviles is a much better bat than TPJ, and so is Callaspo, but neither one of them is the defender that Pena is. If it’s going to be a 2-1 game, I don’t mind the manager playing conservatively.
Stephen says:

June 24th, 2008 at 7:23 am

In the vein of gbewing’s post yesterday, don’t look now but our hapless group of AAAA’ers are 8 games back!

Look at where we were the last three years:
2007 - 30-46 and 16 games back
2006 - 23-50 and 26 games back
2005 - 25-46 and 25 games back

All three years, worst record in baseball!

This year, 34-43 (five worse records) and 8 games back!

Yes, I’ll note what someone else surely will, the last three years the division leaders were playing unreal ball - 2007-Detroit, 45-29; 2006-Chicago, 50-25; 2005-Chicago, 50-22.

But it’s the small victories!
Chris says:

June 24th, 2008 at 7:27 am

Lee: Bynum? There is a reason why he was put on waivers: .192 .238 .242 30
.244 .291 .264 50 Those are Gathright’s numbers, which are far better than that of Bynum’s.
benfunke says:

June 24th, 2008 at 9:28 am

Stephen–seeing our record this morining reminded me of a basketball game, where you work to get the deficit back into single digits before halftime. Now they just need to keep plugging away.

Today’s matchup of past vs. future. Either Greinke wins while De La Rosa gets hammered, or (the pessimist in me fears) Greinke looks flat while TPJ & crew make De La Rosa look like a Cy Young candidate, the embarassment of which deflates all of the high spirits that have been building during this hot streak.
Gene says:

June 24th, 2008 at 2:39 pm

It’d be interesting to know, of Teahen’s 29 AB’s with a runner on third, how many of those AB’s were with 2 outs. Its a lot easier % wise for any batter to drive in a man on third when the potential for a sacrifice fly is in play. Regardless, you can’t knock his hot streak, I’m enjoying it.

I hope Greinke sticks it to de la Rosa tonite. DLR had 10 K’s his last start. Always inconsistent, I see DLR out by the 5th.
Big Lee says:

June 24th, 2008 at 6:16 pm

Chris-Trade Pena Jr. for Bynum, not Gath. Bynum’s numbers actually look decent next to Pena’s. Bynum was a former second round pick that Orioles thought might be good enough to be their starting SS.

I have to agree with Ghost. This Pena-love thing that has infected the Royals needs an antibiotic. If Royals really want him to develop, send him to Omaha and let him play every day there. He won’t be holding up any prospects there, and he may develop some offensive skills. He is holding up progress in KC, and I don’t think his skills will develop in spot duty.
kcghost says:

June 25th, 2008 at 5:36 am

Adam,

I think you have it backwards. Hochevar, at best, is a middle of the rotation guy. Yes, people were concerned with the health risk of Lincecum. But Lincecum was the one with ace potential not Hochevar. For the Royals the risk is lessened somewhat by the knowledge that we would have great difficulty keeping a young stud starter once he reached free agency.

With Hochevar, a Boras client, we have a guy who is almost certainly going to go free agent anyway, and with whom we aspired to reach fourth maybe third place in the division. With Lincecum you might get into the top two.
Adam says:

June 25th, 2008 at 5:38 am

kcghost: I admitted, and still admit, that Hochevar’s ceiling is lower than Lincecum’s. I still don’t care; I see Hochevar as the safer pick, and so did most scouts. Why do you think Lincecum fell all the way to the Giants?
Patek to Rojas to Mayberry says:

June 26th, 2008 at 5:41 pm

Not to insult anyone here, but I’m a bit confused about the discussion concerning Hochevar vs. Lincecum and why it is particularly relevant, considering that Andrew Miller seems to have been a more likely pick (at draft time) than was Lincecum.

Obviously, the Royals could have drafted Lincecum if they had wanted to do so, since they had the first pick and no team stood in their way. But apparently Lincecum didn’t receive very serious consideration, not only from the Royals, but (as Adam suggests) from several other clubs. That’s why I question whether it’s entirely relevant to discuss Lincecum in this context while omitting Miller. As we all know, hindsight is 20-20 and it would have turned out to be a very heady (and probably heavily criticized at the time) move to take Lincecum. As kcghost suggests, if we had had the foresight to take Lincecum, we’d have a heckuva rotation. One certainly can dream. I just think it’s somewhat of a moot point, when all is said and done; that’s all I’m saying…

…because Andrew Miller and not Lincecum is the guy the experts thought KC would and should select. I imagine most of us who were following the draft thought Miller was exactly who the Royals would take.

The baseball world did a double-take when Hochevar’s name was announced. I hope we don’t look back five or ten years from now and say that Hochevar was a bad pick. He has enough talent to be a #3 or #4 starter, but we needed a higher ceiling out of the number 1 overall pick. So I understand where kcghost is coming from. I also agree with Adam that Hochevar was the safer pick.

But IMHO, the discussion should at least include Miller vs. the other two, or Miller vs. Hochevar alone. What if we had selected Miller instead of Hochevar? I wonder if perhaps Miller has more upside, but right now, I am not at all unhappy that the Royals let Miller slip to the Tigers (who I believe had the #6 pick if I remember correctly).

I know Lincecum’s name had been mentioned in pre-draft discussions of whom the Royals might select, but I don’t think the Royals really gave him any really serious consideration when it came down to draft day.

The pages of Royals history, especially the past 20 years or so, are overflowing with bad draft choices, overlooked diamonds in the rough, missed opportunities, poorly-developed talent, and quite frankly, major screwups. We might as well expand the discussion to include the Royals’ failure to draft Albert Pujols since he practically played in their back yard.

Just my two cents…again, no offense intended or directed at anyone.
Craig Brown says:

June 27th, 2008 at 7:46 am

PRM - I don’t think anyone would be offended by your comment.

I’m going off of memory, but I think the big arms in that draft were supposed to be Miller, Lincecum and Lincoln. Hochevar snuck in there at the end.

I think you’re correct though in the Hochevar/Miller debate as Miller seemed to be the one the Royals really wanted (again, if memory serves) and the price tag scaring them away.

So while that is a comparison that makes sense, Lincecum is the most successful pitcher out of that draft (currently… I can certainly change over time.) Since that’s the case, that’s who Hochevar - the number one overall - will be measured against. But as you said, I remember teams being concerned about his violent style of delivery and basically being scared to take him.

In the end, you’re right - you can always look back and say the Royals should have drafted that guy. It’s a trap that’s easy to fall into but should be avoided.

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