MVN - Most Valuable Network

Trade Bait

The trade deadline is about 20 days away so it’s time to look at some candidates the Kansas City Royals could consider shopping around.  Clark did a great job yesterday with his post on his assessment of players and what the Royals should do with the current group on the roster.  This post is more about potential trade partners and the return the Royals could expect to net from a deadline deal.

Before you get visions of highly-rated prospects dancing though your heads, take a look at Fangraphs listing of Top 50 players ranked by trade value. Not that those on the list are likely to be dealt.  It’s just a list detailing the players considered most valuable - the higher the player on the list, the more a team would have to give up it they were to swing a trade.  There’s not a single Royal on the list.

Ugh.

Here are some Royals who have found their names in some trade deadline rumors.

Miguel Olivo

Color me surprised. I wasn’t too happy with this signing when it went down saying Olivo was basically the same player (offensively speaking) as John Buck, but so far Olivo has been superior.  Defensively, he’s not that great at blocking pitches, but he’s gunned down nine out of 18 would be base stealers.

He’s signed with a $2.7 million club option for 2009 making him incredibly affordable. The Royals seem to love their catching tandem and Trey Hillman is finding plenty of time for both Buck and Olivo. The Royals would be slow to break it up.

Potential trade candidates: There isn’t a big market among the contenders for a catcher. Philadelphia is looking for starting pitching but they need a catcher in a bad way. And Olivo would mash in that bandbox of a ballpark. The Marlins probably wish they kept Olivo in the first place, but you always have to wonder about their ability (and desire) to add to the payroll. Even Olivo’s affordable contract might be too much for the Fish.

He’s been a surprise, but he’s still not worth much more than a “B” level prospect.

Gil Meche

Yes, we’ve all seen his name pop up in rumors, but I’m inclined to think it’s the work of a sportswriter looking for veterans with big contracts on teams in the bottom of the league.

If there’s one thing Dayton Moore is known for, it’s his desire to stockpile starting pitching. With Meche under what is an extremely fair contract for the next three years (and a limited no-trade clause) so there is no reason Moore would deal his starter. Especially since they have no one in the system who can step into his spot in the rotation.

The Royals would have to be blown away with prospects to make this deal. Since Meche has struggled this year with a 4.67 ERA and an ERA+ of 91, his value isn’t as high as it was this time last year, I don’t see that happening.

Potential trade candidates: There are a ton of teams looking for starting pitching with the Yankees and Phillies mentioned as candidates. The Brewers made their move with the CC Sabathia deal and the Cubs answered with Rich Harden so they’re probably out. Names to watch as we approach the deadline include AJ Burnett and Erik Bedard. Burnett, is signed for the next two years but has an option to bail on his contract after this year.  And like Meche, he has a limited no-trade clause.  Meche’s affordable contract and the availability of other starters make a Meche deal an extreme long shot.

Zack Greinke

Again, Moore sees starting pitching as “the currency of the game” and the Royals don’t have anyone better than Greinke. He’s the $100 bill of the Royals rotation.  Plus, he’s still a couple of years away from free agency and finally seems comfortable in KC. Oh, there is also the part about him finally showing signs of developing into a front-line starter.

Trade? The Royals need to be talking to his representatives about signing an extension.

Mark Grudzielanek

We’ve heard his name come up in rumors every year he’s been a Royal and every year there’s nothing. Nada.  Zip.  Zilch.  This year could be different though. He’s playing out his contract at $4.5 million this year and is talking about playing another two or three years. But if he does that, he likely would want to play for a contender. Would he roll the dice and re-up with the Royals, and do they even want him back? He’s again having a nice season, hitting .313/.368/.418 with an OPS+ of 109.

Considering the recent issues with Alberto Callaspo, the Royals seem content to hang on to Grudz for the rest of this season, let him go in free agency and pick up a draft pick for their troubles.

Possible trade candidates: It seems weird to say this, but Grudz would be an upgrade over Jeff Kent for the Dodgers. St. Louis seems like a good fit, but Aaron Miles is hitting well from both sides of the plate and had a decent June where he hit .337/.375/.410.  The Cards have some minor league depth but they probably wouldn’t offer much more than a “B” type of prospect.

MLB Trade Rumors speculated that the Dodgers could be in play for Grudz.  This year, he would actually be an upgrade from future Hall of Famer Jeff Kent.  But the Dodgers are paying Kent $9 million this year and is a notorious red ass who would certainly cause problems if he lost time in the lineup.  He’s also started to hit much better after a horrible May.

Overall, there’s just not a market for second basemen. Then think about his age and recent problems with his knees.  Combine all of that and you see how it pushes his value down to where the Royals will be slow to make a move.

Ron Mahay

Mahay was included in the Tiexiera deal at the deadline last year and is a candidate to again make a move. The Yankees and Rays went after Mahay last winter and continue to look to upgrade their bullpens. The Rays already have a pair of quality left handers in the pen (JP Howell! and Trever Miller), and have other more pressing issues, so they’d probably pass. Mahay is 37 years old and is signed through next year at $4 million.

With a 1.94 ERA and 82% strand rate, Mahay is having the best season of his career and is outperforming everyone’s expectations. According to Bob Dutton, the Royals aren’t looking to deal the reliever but of course that can change as we inch closer to the deadline. The question for the Royals is do they think Mahay will still be a value next year. He’ll be another year older and will almost certainly regress to the mean. If they sell now, they would certainly be moving him at his peak value.

Potential trade candidates: What team can’t use a left handed reliever? The Yankees and Phillies are perhaps the most likely destinations if Mahay is going to move. The Tigers have been mentioned as well, but it doesn’t seem likely the Royals will deal within their division since Mahay is signed through next season.

The Royals could look for another Dotel-type of deal where they get a Triple-A player who’s ready for time in the big leagues.  And considering that Mahay is signed through next year, they should get more than a fringe prospect in return.

There figures to be several relievers available which would drive Mahay’s value down.

Jimmy Gobble

If they were to sell Mahay high, they’d be selling Gobble low. And they would need a willing trade partner as well. He’s making only $1.3 million this year and his new team could always non-tender him in the winter if it didn’t work out.

With the potential glut of relievers, I don’t see Gobble making a move.

Potential trade candidates: If Bill Bavasi were still in Seattle, I could hold out some hope Gobble could get dealt.  Bah.

Mark Teahen

The Royals sure love his versatility but the rest of baseball knows that skill can be overvalued.

As I’ve said before, he’s regressed as a hitter. A contender may be looking to add a left handed bat off the bench, but since he doesn’t hit for power or get on base at an average rate, they’re not going to look at Teahen.

Ross Gload

It would be nice if they could move him, but who would be dumb enough to take him? Like Teahen, he lacks a niche that contenders are looking for as they shape their rosters for a deep run into the post season.

And the fact he lacks a platoon advantage makes him even less attractive. As if that’s even possible.

Jose Guillen

Believe it or not, a residual from his “argument” with Bob McClure is teams are now calling the Royals to see if they are looking to move Guillen.  Ken Rosenthal says if they dealt Guillen, the Royals would have to jump back into the free agent pool for an outfielder this winter and that’s something they don’t want to do.

Rosenthal also says the Royals like “the edge” Guillen gives the team.  And you know I agree.  There’s zero chance of Guillen moving.

David DeJesus

By far, the most attractive Royal hitter to contending clubs. Two reasons teams could be interested: One, he’s hitting .316/.373/.482 and having the best season of his career. Two, he’s signed to an affordable contract with a team option through 2011.

While he’s the Royals best hitter and could net the largest return, the only way the Royals decide to deal DeJesus is if they think Joey Gathright can be an everyday player. And that’s not happening. Whew.

Potential trade candidates: The Cubs were reportedly interested earlier this season before they pulled Jim Edmonds off the scrap heap. The Yankees have a huge void in left field with Johnny Damon on the DL for the first time in his career. The Mets have tremendous problems in their outfield and DeJesus would fit into the number two hole in their lineup. But the prospect cupboard is bare after the Johan Santana deal. There was some potential there for the Diamondbacks to be interested, but it looks like they’ve moved Conor Jackson to left with Chad Tracy back at first.

DeJesus would certainly net the best return of anyone on this team.  But as Clark said, he’s a “core” part of this team.  He might not be an All-Star (although he would have been a deserving choice for the game this year) but every contender needs guys who perform at an average or above-average level on a consistent basis.  This year, he’s hitting .467 with RISP.

Conclusion

With the market for their most of their players at an all-time low, it’s difficult to see Dayton Moore pulling the trigger on a deal before the deadline. The guys that would bring the most value (Greinke, Meche and DeJesus) are also the most valuable to the team and their long term goals. The logical guys like Mahay and Grudz won’t net enough return to make it worth the effort. The Royals can get a draft pick if they let Grudz walk as a free agent and Mahay will be here next year. Then there’s the rest like Gload and Teahen. The only way they’re moved is if Moore insists they are sent away as part of a package deal for one of the Royals more valuable commodities. That’s a true long shot.

My gut tells me Mahay is by far the most likely Royal to be traded by August 1.  But I think Dayton Moore will stand pat at the deadline.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, July 9th, 2008 at 9:16 pm and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.