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Three Fives From the Royal Farm
With Craig grading out the big league club this week, I thought I would take today to review some of the first half performances by prospects in the Royals’ system. Our review today does not contain letter grades but is more of a pass/fail test for some names most of you will recognize.
FIVE WHO HAVE STOOD OUT
1. Kila Ka’aihue, 1B, NW Arkansas: A15th round pick in 2002, the 24 year old lefty has not exactly rocketed through the system. In somewhat spasmodic movements, Kila has spent two years in Low-A, a year and a half in High-A and is now on his third stint in AA. Still, the numbers are stunning: .309/.454/.626 with 23 homers, 64 walks and just 36 strikeouts. Those are better numbers than Ka’aihue put up in his stint at the launching pad in High Desert and have to be credited to more than just familiarity with the league. No matter which way you slice the rules, Ka’aihue will be eligible for the Rule 5 draft if not on the big league 40 man roster at season’s end and as such, the Royals would be wise to move him to AAA and find out if the finally healthy slugger can really hit.
2. Daniel Duffy, P, Burlington Bees: Last year’s third round pick is a nineteen year old pitching in a league full of hitters who are mostly two years older than him. No worries, however, as the southpaw has struck out 63 and walked only 10 in 48 innings of work. After striking out 63 in just 37 innings last season in rookie ball, Duffy is worth getting excited about. The organization has Duffy on a tight pitch count and will limit his innings as the year goes on, so don’t expect a move out of Burlington this season. Still, this is a kid who could reach AA as a 20 year old by mid-2009.
3. Carlos Rosa, P, Omaha: You could make a case that Rosa is simply ‘right on schedule’ (see the next category), as he reached AA early last season and is in AAA this season. Still, Rosa destroyed AA to the tune of a 1.20 ERA in 45 innings and has a 3.78 ERA in nine Omaha starts (2.83 if you discount the very first inning of his AAA experience). Throw in a cup of coffee in the majors, where he held his own, and Rosa has excelled this year. Owner of probably the best fastball in the system, the 23 year old is a virtual lock for a spot somewhere on the big league staff for Opening Day 2009.
4. Johnny Giavotella, 2B, Burlington Bees: Drafted just a month ago in the second round, the college junior did not exactly get the fans all fired up despite being a Top 200 prospect per Baseball America. The Royals did not waste any time signing him ($850,000 bonus) or throwing him into the fire as Johnny bypassed rookie ball entirely and went straight to A ball. The 20 year old has responded with a line of .330/.400/.396 through his first 100 professional at-bats with nearly as many walks as strikeouts.
5. Joe Dickerson, OF, Wilmington: Regular readers to our minor league updates will no doubt be aware that I really like Dickerson. Drafted in the 4th round of the 2005 draft (a/k/a The Alex Gordon Draft), you could make the case that Dickerson is simply moving up right on schedule. I, however, get excited when a player moves up a level and increases his production across the board. In fact, Dickerson is simply having his best professional season (.297/.376/.442) at the highest level he has played. The 21 year old lefty hitter has increased his walk rate, decreased the strikeouts, and is filling out the stat sheet with 10 doubles, 10 triples, 5 homers and 24 steals. Of all the outfielders trolling around the system (and that includes Mitch Maier and all the speedsters Dayton Moore likes to draft), Dickerson is the guy I can see playing everyday in the majors.
FIVE WHO ARE RIGHT ON SCHEDULE
There’s that phrase again and there is nothing wrong with being in this category. In most respects, these are good players whose only fault is having a good season as opposed to a spectacular season.
1. Dan Cortes, P, NW Arkansas: Something of a throw in when the Royals traded Mike Macdougal for Tyler Lumsden (more on him below), the 21 year old righthander exploded as the top arm in the system by striking out 120 in 123 innings last year in Wilmington. He has been almost as good in 14 starts in AA this year, striking out 68 in 70 innings on his way to a respectable 3.82 ERA. A lot of us were hoping for a dominant AA season out of Cortes and that has not happened, but he has still been good. At his fourth level in his fourth season, Cortes has done nothing to make us think he won’t be in Omaha in 2009 and the majors by 2010. Basically, he is refined control away from being Zack Greinke.
2. Mitch Maier, OF, Omaha: Now 26 years old and repeating AAA, some might think that Maier is behing schedule. When you consider he was a 21 year old junior when drafted, changed positions three times and has increased his numbers across the board this year (.314/.363/.467), Mitch is still in good shape. I have compared Maier to David DeJesus for several years now and continue to do so. With that comparision certainly looking a lot better with David simply raking for the Royals this year, Maier is certainly deserving of a look in the majors.
3. Blake Wood, P, NW Arkansas: The 2006 third round pick has fought through some injuries which limited him to 96 total innings in his first two professional seasons. Despite that, Wood opened the year in High A and posted a 2.67 ERA with 63 strikeouts in 57 innings. That earned the hard throwing 22 year old a promotion to AA where he has thrown a shutout, but also gotten knocked around a little, too. Still, with 43 strikeouts in 43 innings (only 11 walks), Wood is in good shape. Like Carlos Rosa, there is talk that Blake could fit as a closer or in the rotation in the bigs.
4. Everett Teaford, P, Wilmington: Not the biggest name in the group, but the lefthander was worthy of a 13th round pick in the 2006 draft. He is enjoying his best season this year with a 3.23 ERA in 92 innings and allowing just 77 hits along the way. In his third season and at his third level, Teaford is simply making the steady climb through the system and improving as he does so. At 24 years old, he cannot afford a misstep, however.
5. Chris Nicoll, P, NW Arkansas: The 2005 third round pick nearly dropped off the prospect radar afte a 7.06 ERA in Wilmington last year, but has recovered with a nice 2008 campaign. Starting out again with the Blue Rocks, Nicoll worked almost exclusively out of the pen, struck out 49 in 43 innings, allowed only 34 hits and got the call to AA. In 15 innings thus far with the Naturals, the 24 year old righty has struck out 16 and walked only two.
FIVE WHO HAVE DISAPPOINTED
It is a tough world when you are a big name in the system and these guys have frankly not had the type of season anyone was hoping for.
1. Rowdy Hardy, P, NW Arkansas: When you go from undrafted college senior to the organization’s Pitcher of the Year, you have done something. After posting a 2.48 ERA in 167 innings of work and walking just 16 batters for Wilmington last year, there was a real buzz around the soft-tossing lefty. There was also a good deal skepticism, given that Lenny Franklin Hardy seldom tops out above 82 mph. In 2008, the skeptics have thus far been right as Rowdy has been tuned up with a 5.56 ERA in 99 innings, allowing 134 hits along the way. What happens in the second half of 2008 will probably determine if we ever hear from Mr. Hardy again.
2. Tyler Lumsden, P, Omaha: How happy is Dayton Moore that he managed to get Dan Cortes as part of the Lumsden-MacDougal deal? The lefty, once thought to be a few good starts from the majors, has posted a 7.27 ERA in 83 innings this season after a rather dismal 5.88 ERA in 2007. Here is all you need to know about Lumsden: 49 walks, 31 strikeouts. By the end of September, there will a lot of guys who will be more deserving of a spot on the 40 man roster than this 25 year old.
3. Julio Pimentel, P, NW Arkansas: I refuse to refer to him as Julio Cesar Pimentel until he starts pitching better. After a great 2007 in Wilmington (2.65 ERA in 153 IP), Julio was awarded a spot on the 40 man roster. Despite an appearance in the Futures Game this past Sunday, Pimentel’s 2008 has largely been a disappointment. Through 97 innings, the 22 year old righty has allowed 116 hits and a 5.85 ERA. On the plus side, his strikeout rate is up compared to 2007 and his walk rate has remained about the same. I am a betting man, and I wager that Julio will have a good second half.
4. Jeff Bianchi, 2B, Wilmington: The second round pick in 2005 torched rookie ball in two injury plaqued stints (plus 1.200 OPS both times), but has managed just half that since. A .611 OPS last season in Burlington was partially salvaged by a solid, if unspectacular tour of the Hawaii League this past winter. Moved up to High-A this season, Jeff has posted a meager .687 OPS. I will be amazed if he is not jumped in the pecking order by Giavotella early next year.
5. Mike Moustakas, 3B, Burlington Bees: Yes, you were waiting for this name weren’t you? At 19 years old, last year’s 2nd overall pick is still among the youngest at this level and came in with virtually no professional experience (just 11 rookie games in 07). Even though the Midwest League is a notorious pitcher’s league, we all expected more than .244/.306/.405 out of Moustakas. The 13 doubles and 12 homers are a plus, as is an acceptable 17% strikeout rate (not great, but not troubling). Currently sidelined with a strained oblique, you have to hope that Mike comes back and rakes in the second half. You will know when the organization is getting excited about Moustakas when they move him off third base to, say, a corner outfield spot.
There we have it, fifteen names you probably all recognize and what they have done so far. Check back tomorrow as Craig will continue grading out the big league team. On Thursday, I’ll weigh in with what I think might be some legitimate trade ideas and my take on what the Royals should do the rest of the season.
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21 Responses to “Three Fives From the Royal Farm”
July 15th, 2008 at 8:27 am
Thank you Clark, this gives me some hope that perhaps we are not totally striking out in terms of drafting and developing players. I wonder if anyone knows what our “success rate” is on that, i.e., league average is that 5% of drafted players will turn into major league regulars or better, and the Royals percentage is 2%, or whatever those numbers are (I have a feeling we lag the average and need to get better). Good article.
July 15th, 2008 at 8:35 am
I also wonder why Kaaihue is not in AAA. Seldom a problem in this organization the past several years but Stodolka is blocking the move We all hoped that he would be another Ankiel but soon to be 27 he shows little sign of making it. It is time to try Kila in AAA.
July 15th, 2008 at 8:44 am
Terry, I wonder if there might be some big changes in AAA after the break? They have Stodolka playing some outfield now and it seems kind of pointless to play the likes of Gookie Dawkins, Dave Matranga and Brian Buchanon when you could be finding out about Ka’aihue (with Shealy at DH), Maddox at second, Ed Lucas at third, etc.
July 15th, 2008 at 8:59 am
Clark,
Great article. What do you think of Jason Taylor. He was a second rounder from a couple of years ago (but missed all of last year for personal reasons). His average seems to be low, but if you look at the periferals (0.212 BA; 0.354 OBP; and 0.274 BABIP; ); it would seem that he is just hitting the ball right at people. It would be interesting to find out what people think of him who have seen him play. One thing that is very intreaging about him is that he has 31 SB’s already this year. Thanks.
July 15th, 2008 at 10:51 am
Clark,
I hope you are right. The Omaha roster reminds me too much of the Baird years. AAA filled with old rejects from other organizations. Almost like “if we have to field a AAA team we will”.
I was hoping those days were gone….but not yet.
July 15th, 2008 at 2:04 pm
Terry,
That is the way it generally works in AAA. Across baseball, AAA is less like a prospect development level, and more like an extended roster of role players for the MLB team. The real test for a player is AA. That is why you see many major league players pass AAA entirely and go straight from AA to the majors. In light of that, it does not concern me that Ka’aihue is not in Omaha. At least he should get a September callup and that should really determine his future with the organization (either on the 40 man roster, or lost through the Rule 5 Draft.)
July 15th, 2008 at 6:06 pm
If somehow the Royals were to fail to protect Ka’aihue in December, GMDM should be fired. I’m confident that the organization won’t make such an unforgivable mistake. I will hedge by saying the only reasons Ka’aihue would be left unprotected (except in the case of some serious cranial flatulence on the part of the front office staff) is if he gets traded first or if he gets in some kind of trouble or controversy a la Pacman Jones, Alberto Callaspo, Roman Colon, et.al. I don’t see the latter happening, but he might be traded; you never know.
There’s absolutely no reason why KC should not promote Ka’aihue to AAA immediately. If there are players in the way, move them! Shealy, shmealy. Other players with lower upside or who are significant disappointments should never be allowed to stand in the way of a prospect on the rise. You make way for the hotshot prospect and either release or find a place to put the players who are serving as roadblocks.
July 15th, 2008 at 6:16 pm
Steve, true that is the way things work with poor teams like the Royals but not with good teams. that is what bothers me.
Don’t forget Huber looked like an all star in AA then kaput.
July 15th, 2008 at 6:41 pm
Patek,
I think the real question that needs asking is just how does GMDM and his staff view Ka’aihue? Do they consider him truely a prospect.
I was looking up some players ages that are considered top prospects. Below is what I found:
Matt Weiters - 22 - AA
Matt LaPorta - 23 - AA
Matt Gamel - 22 - AA
Dexter Fowler - 22 - AA
Kila is 24. Of the players listed above, and based purely on statistics; Kila is most similar to Matt Laporta and Matt Gamel (on the offensive side). I like the fact that Baseball America considers him to have the “Best Strike-Zone Discipline” in the system.
Iagree whole heartedly with your assessment on the Shealy situation. Ac ouple of months in AAA will really teach us how disciplined he can be as well as what kind of off-speed hitter he is. AA tends to have more of the top prospects as Terry said, however these prospects tend to have more of a fastball first mentallity, while AAA pitchers tend to have more refined off-speed pitches. I would rather we find that out at AAA than at KC.
I think it is safe to say the leading candidates to drop from the 40 are Lumsden and Shealy. Beyond that the decisions get a little tougher.
July 15th, 2008 at 6:44 pm
The All-Star game is such BULL$hit!!!! For the third year in a row they are not going to play a Royal. I understand the last couple years. Soria not getting a chance to play is the such a slap in the face to Kansas City. I beginning to think everyone is against the Royals for some reason.
July 15th, 2008 at 6:47 pm
Clark,
I am somewhat new to the site, so you may already do an article like this every year, but do you know which players the Royals will need to add to the 40 or risk loosing them to the Rule 5 and the most likely candidates to be removed (i.e Mike Aviles last year)? Thanks.
July 15th, 2008 at 6:53 pm
at least Francona rewarded excellence by getting Variteck into the game early- yeah let the managers pick the teams - cool they have their head up their ass as much as anyone
July 15th, 2008 at 7:04 pm
I just can’t understand why they wouldn’t put Soria in the game. As if the 20 of Red Sox and Yankee players didn’t get to play. They can’t put 1 Royal in the game. I want to punch Francona in the face so bad.
July 15th, 2008 at 8:02 pm
If the Royals ever win the World Series (or should I say when?) their manager should take the entire royals team and pick no Red Sox or Yankees! Screw the east coast media! What would they do?
This just goes to show how much baseball views the Royals as the laughing stock of the major leagues! I really hope GMDM can get it right!
July 15th, 2008 at 8:24 pm
Ok I feel a little better. They didn’t plan on using Soria though. Soria showed his nasty pitchs in the 11th. Hope he gets the win.
July 16th, 2008 at 1:13 am
Moustakas is fine. He sucked in April (for a variety of reasons most likely) but has played pretty well since then, especially considering age and league.
I don’t see why Kila isn’t in AAA yet either. I can think of one reason…he’s the Naturals best player and they want to build some good will with the new fan base down there, taking away the best player definitely wouldn’t do them any favors. Still, if he could rake in AAA too that would eliminate one spot that DM needs to try hard to fill. It’s not a matter of Shealy being there either, Brian freakin’ Buchanan is DH’ing. Shealy and Kaaihue could easily just split time at 1B and DH.
July 16th, 2008 at 4:25 am
The guys not on the 40 man now who will have to go on before next season: 1B Kila, C Adam Donachie, RHRP Devon Lowery, RHRP Greg Atencio, LHSP/RP Dusty Hughes, RHRP Chris Hayes, OF Chris Lubanski, OF Brian McFall.
Actually, I believe Lowery, Atencio, and maybe Hayes will be out of options.
All of those guys have some value as parts or better and have played a full season of AA or above. The first question is do the Royals have enough high upside guys below them who need to be protected, and whether or not they fill the 25 man roster with guys who either don’t belong or who they won’t play: Gload and German. The answer is almost certainly no. The second question is whether or not another team will take them and think they can stick on their roster all season. Baltimore selected Donachie last season and returned him. Catchers develop late offensively and lord knows that’s not an organizational strength. Hayes is a sidearmer, so maybe somebody pops him thinking they can replicate the Brad Zeigler magic. They took a chance leaving Lubaski off this season, and I don’t see where he’s given anybody a reason to take him next year. McFall has been fine, but not exactly had a breakout that would get a lot of attention.
But then there is RHSP Chris Nicoll, who will need to go on. If I recall correctly the 04 and 05 drafts were so bad that there isn’t anybody else to worry about losing. Josh Johnson and Chris McConnell, yes, but who can stash A ballers with little upside? Note that Bianchi and Dickerson were taken in 05, the same season as Nicoll, but both of them were out of high school while Nicoll was drafted out of college. The rule is if you are 19 at the time of signing, you get three years before going on the 40 man, under 19 and you get 4.
July 16th, 2008 at 6:34 am
Paul - I believe Hayes will have on more year before being Rule 5 eligible. As an undrafted free agent in 2006, I don’t believe he will reach three years of service time until mid-2009.
Lowery will be able to become a minor league free agent, as will Mike Stodolka and a handful of other guys none of us will really miss.
Hughes was eligible for Rule 5 last year and I was suprised we did not lose him then - I would think he would be a likely target again if not added to the 40 man. Nicoll is also a possible target, but I think he’ll be on the 40 man come fall (you gonna keep him or Jeff Fulchino?).
Here’s one for you, though. Blake Johnson signed two days AFTER turning 19, I’m thinking he’s going to be eligible for Rule 5. I give him Tyler Lumsden’s 40 man spot if that’s the case.
July 16th, 2008 at 6:59 am
Jon,
Here’s my concern about Jason Taylor (who has very good speed and some power - he also plays 3rd, by the way) - guys like that who have good OBP but low batting averages in the minors more often than not seem to end up with a decrease in OBP as they move up the ladder as opposed to an increase in batting average. Now, the Midwest League is a tough hitter’s circuit, but right now I guess I’m skeptical of Taylor. Next season will tell us a lot.
July 16th, 2008 at 8:52 am
Kila has been in AA more than 2 seasons. He needs to move up to Omaha for reasons stated by Jon, and to see how he adjusts to completely new situations. He probably knows where to park the bus at all the AA sites now.
Good stuff from all contributors!
July 16th, 2008 at 10:19 am
Good to know about Hayes - I was thinking he was a 02 or 03 late rounder. Hopefully he can continue what he’s doing because while they are all nice arms, the bullpen guys we have now are all real similar.
This will be fun: Take a look at Jimmy Gobble’s numbers in his last year at AAA. Unbelievable similarities to Lumsden. Yikes. I say let them both go and every year or two you pay a little extra to get a late 30’s guy like Ron Mahay. Johnson’s probably a middle reliever, but that’s better than what you can reasonably expect from Lumsden at this point.
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