Royals Authority

Plans, Trades and Automobiles

By Clark Fosler | July 17th, 2008

Okay, that’s a weak rip off of the Steve Martin/John Candy movie, ‘Planes, Trains and Automobiles’, but titles are hard. At any rate, it does provide us with a jumping off point for today’s column.

Over the past couple of weeks, Craig and I have analyzed and graded both the big league roster and the organization as a whole. We have discussed the relative value of Miguel Olivo, lamented the lack of production from the likes of Gordon, Butler and Teahen. Today, I will don the general manager hat and offer up my plan for the rest of the season. In doing so, every attempt will be made to be realistic and only propose moves that I at least think might be at least considered by those that actually make their livings running baseball teams.

First Things First
The Royals currently are playing the role of bridesmaid in the trading market (not the hot one second in line, but the sister-in-law standing down there at number four). While the team has some marketable commodities, it does not have the premier players teams are looking for as the make a run for the playoffs. For example, Ron Mahay becomes a lot more interesting to clubs once Brian Fuentes and Damaso Marte are moved.

So, other than activate Leo Nunez and once more send Joel Peralta back to Omaha, there is little to do of an obvious nature. Internally, however, the discussion has to begin as to whether Billy Butler is going to stay on the big league roster much longer. After going three for five in his first post recall start on June 30th, Butler has gone just 6 for 41. His slugging percentage for the season is just .330. Only Joey Gathright, Tony Pena Jr. and Esteban German have a lower number than that.

Billy simply looks sullen and befuddled at the plate. If he is getting any joy out of the game right now, I’d be amazed. Contrary to what certain broadcasters may preach, Butler has NOT been hitting the ball hard and simply been unlucky. Butler is simply not hitting line drives with any consistency and if he is not doing that, he cannot help this ballclub. Unless something miraculous happens, Billy Butler is sent down on July 20th.

In his place, I recall Ryan Shealy. To be honest, I have no expectations that the team gets better, but I want one last look at Shealy - even if it is in a platoon with THAT man, Ross Gload. In Omaha, Butler steps in to DH and Kila Ka’aihue is called up to play first and find out if he can translate his recent AA dominance into AAA proficiency. Sure, that leaves no place for Mike Stodolka to play in Omaha, but that is hardly an overriding concern.

So, It’s July 21st And What Have You Done?
Not much really. I’ve exchanged Joel Peralta and Billy Butler for Leo Nunez and Ryan Shealy and that likely has not suddenly made my Royals a contender. That’s okay, the trade market is starting to clear up a little (hopefully).

Unfortuneatley, I have to come to grips with the fact that the one guy whose performance would likely net some real return is simply not very marketable. It’s not that teams do not respect Mark Grudzielanek’s professionalism, value his track record and acknowledge the excellent year he is having. No, quite simply, only two contenders have a weakness at second base, and the Mets have three and a half years remaining on Luis Castillo’s four year/$25 million deal and the Dodgers have Mr. Sunshine, Jeff Kent, who would be an absolute assclown if he was benched. Other than simply dumping Grudz for a small return, I’ll hang onto him for the year and figure out what to do about second base this fall.

I also have come to realize that the teams seeking outfield help are trying to replace outfielders that are already better than what I have to offer (assuming that I do not want to trade David DeJesus and will not/cannot trade Jose Guillen). At one time, a Joey Gathright to the Marlins deal seemed possible, but Florida has Cody Ross and his .828 OPS out in center right now and that certainly sounds better than Joey.

Ross Gload? Not in a stand alone trade.

And Now The Royals Make a Move
After my reality check on the 21st, my general manager’s cap is fitting pretty snug. I look to a team on the edge of contention: the Texas Rangers. They are a marvelous offensive club with a pitching staff sporting an overall 5.10 ERA. Their relief corp has a 1.50 WHIP and an ERA of 4.90 and their top four rotation members have earned run averages of 4.70, 4.82, 4.85 and 5.11. While the Royals’ pitching staff doesn’t actually have much better numbers than that, they truly are better and deeper.

I offer Kyle Davies and Jimmy Gobble for shortstop prospect Elvis Andrus. The Rangers’ GM counters with Luke Hochevar and Carlos Rosa. I offer to throw in Tony Pena to sweeten my deal, he responds with ‘which Tony Pena?’. We both laugh and hang-up.

Still, as bad as Jimmy Gobble has been, he has some value as a LOOGY and at least a marginal track record of being a serviceable pitcher. The Rangers are loaded in the outfield and have given Nelson Cruz (currently posting a 1.111 OPS in AAA) enough chances in the majors do no longer view him as a legitimate prospect. It is kind of a garbage for garbage deal, but I have John Bale, Peralta, Neal Musser and even Carlos Rosa to replace Gobble and maybe, just maybe, Nelson Cruz is my Carlos Quentin. The basic deal gets done in five minutes, but our conversation expands to another Ranger shortstop, Joaquin Arias. Sandwiched between Michael Young in the majors and Elvis Andrus in AA, Arias is stuck and while his career minor league line of .288/.321/.382 hardly indicates a superstar in the making, it does make him better than Tony Pena Jr. and my current AAA shortstop, Angel Sanchez.

In the end, it is AA pitcher Blake Johnson and Gobble for Arias and Cruz. John Bale is activated to take Gobble’s spot on the 25 man roster (dumping Jeff Fulchino off the 40 man as Bale was on the 60 day DL), while Cruz and Arias head to Omaha where 31 year old Dave Matranga and 33 year old Damon Hollins are released.

A Little Bigger, A Little Better
My Gobble-Cruz deal got two sentences on MLBTradeRumors.com and two paragraphs in the Kansas City Star. Hey, we can’t all be Theo Epstein. Speaking of whom…

The Rays and Yankees both are calling about Ron Mahay. With the injury to Dodgers’ closer Tak Saito, the price on the likes of Brian Fuentes and Damaso Marte has risen dramatically and Mahay is viewed as the cheaper alternative solution.

The perception around the league is that the Royals are more likely to move Mahay for something as opposed to not moving him at all. The perception is right: ‘37 year old middle reliever’ and ‘building for the future’ are two phrases that do not mix very well, no matter how well the reliever is pitching. Besides, I’ve got Nunez and Ramon Ramirez to setup Soria. As good as Ron Mahay has been, he is a luxury that the Royals really do not need right now.

While not desperate, the Red Sox are looking for some bullpen help and, as always, eager to take players away from their division rivals. They view the asking price for Fuentes and Marte as excessive for their needs, as was my request to the aforementioned Epstein for shortstop Jed Lowrie in exchange for Ron Mahay.

However, there is common ground. With David Ortiz (injury issues aside) and Kevin Youkilis manning first base and designated hitter, plus a rumored interest in Mark Texiera this winter, the Red Sox have a quality first baseman in Chris Carter simmering in AAA. Now 25, Carter has never posted an OPS lower than .860 at any minor league stop. From Epstein’s perspective, Carter is a guy who won’t help him win the Series this year or next, while Mahay just might. More importantly, acquiring Mahay ensures that he won’t help either the Yankees or Rays.

Just before midnight on July 24th, Ron Mahay is shipped to the Red Sox for Chris Carter. Mahay’s spot in the bullpen is taken by Joel Peralta (whose knowledge of I-29 is well beyond that of most, by now), Carter is placed on both the 25 and 40 man roster and Tony Pena Jr. is designated for assignment.

One Last Try (And Some Assumptions)
It’s game time on Friday the 25th versus the Rays (an organization that no longer sends me flowers as a result of my sending Mahay to the Sox). Chris Carter is in the lineup at first, with Shealy at DH. Ryan is 2 for 14 since his recall (one a home run) and is still digging himself an early hole in every at-bat. Mark Teahen is still muddling along at roughly the same pace as before the break: tantalizing with superb baserunning and occassional power, but not putting together anything approaching 2006. Is my team any better? Not yet.

Looking around the league, the Phillies and Marlins both seem to need some catching help, but Florida already took a spin on the Miguel Olivo merry-go-round and the Phillies don’t seem that interested. I don’t want to mess much more with my bullpen and it is pretty obvious that I have placed much more value on the likes of Teahen and Kyle Davies than other teams have. As Dayton Moore has often said, you can’t assume you are any smarter than the other 29 GMs.

I make a run at the Rockies’ AA centerfielder, Dexter Fowler: offering a package of Davies, Teahen and a low level prospect. I call my friends in Texas once more and point out that Kyle Davies REALLY is better than half their rotation. Even Florida, with Andrew Miller’s 5.63 ERA and Mark Henrickson’s 6.09 trotting out there every 5th day seems unenthused by Kyle. Hochevar sure, but not Davies.

Although notoriously hard to deal with, the Dodgers are always willing to talk and the currently have Jeff Kent (.711 OPS) at second, Blake DeWitt (.702 OPS) at third, with both being backed up by Andy LaRoche and his .182/.294/.341 line. Not to mention that Angel Berroa (for godssake!) is their backup shortstop. Esteban German has little value, but I’m not asking for much and he’s the kind of bench player that could really help the Dodgers.

By Sunday, a deal is completed that sends German to LA in exchange for 25 year old outfielder Thomas Giles, who was toiling in High A (.290/.344/.529). There’s nothing all that exciting about this trade, other than it frees up a roster spot for the recently acquired Joaquin Arias.

And Now It’s August 1st
No big splash at the trading deadline, although I continued to pitch Grudzielanek to the Mets until the last second. With luck, we will be able to pass Grudz, Ross Gload and others through waivers and continue to explore trading options through August, but any move is probably unlikely.

As August begins, I simply have to get Nelson Cruz to the majors. There was no point in acquiring him, even at the minimal cost paid, to have him torture AAA pitching any longer. A couple of things could allow this: an injury to a position player (the Royals have been quite fortuneate this year in that regard), or a cruddy two weeks out of Ryan Shealy would solve the problem. For now, I will ship Shealy back to AAA simply due to a numbers crunch.

The current lineup is:
Buck/Olivo C
Carter 1b
Grudzielanek 2b
Aviles ss
Gordon 3b
Cruz lf
DeJesus cf
Teahen rf
Guillen DH

Arias is given semi-regular time at shortstop, spelling Aviles at least one game per week and getting two or three other starts as Grudz is rested liberally (with Aviles sliding to second) and Gordon getting a day off against tough lefties (again with Aviles spelling him at third as we move Mike into the super utility role he is probably best suited for).

The rotation remains the same, with a bullpen that is minus Ron Mahay and Jimmy Gobble but plus Leo Nunez and John Bale.

At Last Comes September
By Labor Day, my hope is that Chris Carter has entrenched himself at first base and that Nelson Cruz has gone all ‘Jack Cust’ on the league. Billy Butler is recalled and installed as the everyday DH for the remainder of the season. That move sends Mark Teahen to the bench on most days.

Although it is somewhat unfair, the middle infield of Arias and Aviles gets more and more looks as the Grudzielanek era winds up. In addition, both DeJesus and Guillen get at least one day per week off as we recall Mitch Maier and try to get a feel for what he can do.

The only major pitching move is to recall Carlos Rosa and get him two or three starts (plus some bullpen work) in September.

Have We Made Any Progress?
Maybe not in the ‘dramatically better’ zone, but I think the moves could be quite positive. Even if Nelson Cruz really is a .235 major league hitter, we still have Joaquin Arias at shortstop - a step up from where the team started out in 2008 or 2007 or 2006 or..you get the picture. For the loss of an inconsistent lefty reliever and the number four starter off our AA club, Cruz was a good risk and Arias a decent return.

With any luck, Chris Carter is the first baseman that we thought Ryan Shealy would be and, at last, the Royals can move from saying we have ‘a lot’ of first baseman to simply saying ‘we have a’ first baseman. While on the subject of luck, we can also hope the return to Omaha has allowed Billy Butler to recapture the swing that made most people in baseball consider him a top hitting prospect. If that is indeed the case, the Royals will be set to enter the 2009 season with a middle of the order of an improved third year Alex Gordon, Jose Guillen, Chris Carter and the new and improved Billy Butler.

Perhaps most importantly, the moves I made in the summer of 2008 did nothing to undermine the team’s ability to be aggressive in the free agent market (a need if Nelson Cruz really can’t hit). Further, despite making several trades, all the ‘big bullets’ are still in the chamber if the Royals want to pull off a blockbuster (or at least major) trade at the winter meetings.

This entry was posted on Thursday, July 17th, 2008 at 6:01 am and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

25 Responses to “Plans, Trades and Automobiles”

Chris says:

July 17th, 2008 at 6:51 am

why are you trading for a first baseman? You got Gload, Butler, Shealy, Kaaihue and eventually Hosmer.
Butler really needs to learn how to play first. He is going to be worth more to the Royals and to the team they eventually trade him to.

I’m not saying they are giving up on Butler, but after his six years are up…I’m not sure he will be willing to re-sign.

I still like the Mahay to the Yankees for Gardner.

I’m not sold on Nelson Cruz either, but I could deal if he came along with Arias

I do like the idea of getting Fowler.

For years I’ve been thinking the Royals need to stock wilmington and Arkansas by trading MLB ready talent. If they did that back in 2000 and continued it until 2007, they would have one of the best Minor League systems in MLB.
I think they still need to use that idea in the terms of Grudz, Teahen, Mahay, German and a starter. They have guys in AAA that are viable in each position. Bring up Maier, play Callaspo, bring up Peralta, bring up Duckworth for his last shot and bring up Jason Smith for his last shot. what is there to lose? They’re not competing this year, it’s time to see exactly what you have in Omaha.
Duckworth and Smith are in their 30’s…it’s now or never for them. Maier and Callaspo show a lot of promise and you never know if they’ll be the next Aviles.
Then in the offseason, you know exactly what you have and what you need.
Collin says:

July 17th, 2008 at 6:55 am

Great insight. Somehow you can make minor leaguer swapping sound enthralling. Thanks and here’s to a productive second half of July!
Seth says:

July 17th, 2008 at 7:14 am

It won’t happen like that but it could. I think you did an excellent job of describing some fair trades that might address some of the Royals biggest weaknesses.
Clark Fosler says:

July 17th, 2008 at 7:15 am

Chris - The list of names you gave is EXACTLY why I’m trading for a first baseman! Assuming Hosmer signs right at August 15th, he is best case at least three years from the majors - hence the need for an upgrade over what is already stockpiled at first.

I agree on your idea of stockpiling A+ and AA in exchange for major league ready talent. Imagine the haul of prospects Beltran would have brought if the Royals had not been deadset on getting guys who could play in the majors right now.

I tried in my scenario to at least get Maier into the mix sooner, but could not see a realistic scenario (assuming the Cruz acquisition) that gets him to the majors before September. You’re right, it’s time to find out about him.
Chaim Mattis Keller says:

July 17th, 2008 at 7:28 am

Why exactly are you (Mr. GM) shuttling Joel Peralta up and down I-29 instead of giving Neal Musser a good look?
kcghost says:

July 17th, 2008 at 7:36 am

Well your scenario does have the air of plausibility about it. I do like the idea of giving Shealy one final shot so we can get over the idea of him ever being a functional major leaguer. Heck I wouldn’t even object to bringing Stodolka up after we dump Shealy and give him a two week trial. At least we can tell the kid we gave him a shot.

I am not giving up Mahay unless it is for something of value. And Gardner isn’t it. He is about as major league ready as I am.

On another subject, it would be interesting if we went back and reviewed the trades/player moves GMDM made in his first six months and seeing how that played out.
Clark Fosler says:

July 17th, 2008 at 8:18 am

kcg - Just a point of clarification. I gave up Mahay for Carter, what do you think of him?

Chaim - Right now, Musser is on the DL and secondly he is not having a particularly dominant year in AAA. I don’t have a problem with Musser instead of Peralta in any of the moves and, given the timing, it might be necessary to accomodate the ‘10 day rule’ regarding recalls.
Jon says:

July 17th, 2008 at 8:46 am

Arias is a solid player. I have seen him play in Frisco, TX for the Rangers AA affiliate. He is an upgrade defensively, and is a plus plus runner.
Chaim Mattis Keller says:

July 17th, 2008 at 9:30 am

I must have missed when Musser went on the DL. I just remember him being up for a few days, sent back down, and the next thing I knew, we had Fulchino, Horacio Ramirez and Tejeda filling out our bullpen. I’d actually been wondering for a while what had happened.
Mike Williams says:

July 17th, 2008 at 9:39 am

One thing wrong with your post:

Tony Pena Jr bobblehead day is Sept 6th.

If Moore does the right thing and releases Pena before then, thus enduring ridicule, I’d be pleasantly surprised.
Ewing says:

July 17th, 2008 at 9:51 am

Clark - great post. Thanks.
JS says:

July 17th, 2008 at 11:31 am

Two thoughts-

If Rudy Jaramillo cannot get consistent production out of Nelson Cruz, can anyone?

When Grud was almost sent packing to the Tigers a couple of years ago, who would the Royals have received?
Jon says:

July 17th, 2008 at 11:34 am

I would like to think I have a little biit of extra knowledge that I can bring to the situation with the trade that was detailed out with the Rangers since I have seen them play multiple times while they were with Frisco.

As was mentioned Arias is added depth. Cruz is also expendable. The only way that they would deal Elvis is if Greinke was included in the deal. He is about as highly touted of a prospects as they have had there.

The other couple of people who I would be interested in dealing for with Texas would be Taylor Teagarden (C) and John Mayberry (OF). These are both positions of strength for the Rangers and positions of weakness for the Royals. I think Davies could return Mayberry, but is not likely enough for Teagarden.

Mayberry is a local kid, which likely would play no part in the deal, but I am sure he would not be opposed to playing for the Royals. He only 24, but he has a long swing. If he worked with Mike Barnett . . . . oh wait, nevermind.

Nelson Cruz is what he is. He is a 4th outfielder. He is basically Miguel Olivo in the outfield, which is not terrible, but could be better.

My order of Rangers prospects would be:
1. John Mayberry
2. Taylor Teagarden
3. Joaquin Arias
4. Nelson Cruz

The Rangers would probably want Kyle Davies and a low level pitching prospect for one of them. (Which I would do in a heartbeat)
steve y says:

July 17th, 2008 at 11:35 am

Very detailed story, very imaginative. We may be having a little too much of grass is always greener, and don’t know what you have until it is gone. What if Aviles is our shortstop of the future, he does not seem to have disproved that yet, so maybe we do not have to give up lots to get a SS. We keep thinking about trading pitching to get position starters, but our pitching is the second worst in the league at the major league level, right above Texas. I sure wish that we had used the first half to already find out what Maier and Shealy could do, even the Big Hawaian, see if we have any more Aviles internally, before we trade yet more pitching for folks like Gathright (who did not turn out to be a major league regular starter), and Collaspo (who we did not take the time to find out if he is). I know we need to mix in some wily veterans to show the young guys how to be successful, but Grud is blocking finding out what we have, and Gload is wasting a spot we need for the same activity, if we can’t give them away then put them on the bench and have them as back up if the auditions do fail.
Jonathan says:

July 17th, 2008 at 1:39 pm

Awesome post, very well thought out. I liked your mindset and the moves you make - nothing drastic or unreasonable, but baby steps in the right direction towards making KC a contender.

I truly believe we’re an above average 1B, OF and #2-3 SP away from contending in the AL Central. Granted, those are three big holes to fill, but you began to address them (or at least buy time for them to arrive from the minors) in this scenario.
Chaim Mattis Keller says:

July 17th, 2008 at 3:11 pm

Jon, is that John Mayberry related to the guy who might still be the best first baseman the Royals have ever had? (Mike Sweeney might have since surpassed him for that distinction)
gbewing says:

July 17th, 2008 at 3:21 pm

maybe the best piece that’s been written on this blog- I found it extremely realistic in regard to realistic values of players (an issue many of our fans have not been grasping) yet it also presented legitimate potential deal that would help and got me a little excited. Attacking other teams depth and trading off place we have some depth.

I may branch out a little further and offer Hochever if I can get a big boy- Hochever is starting to convince me he’s a legit 3 (that’s a compliment) and maybe a 2- but I also get a sense he will be difficult to sign of all of our young players long term. If he gets 2 good starts -I say seriously look to trade high on him BUT ONLY if something big comes back in an area of need.

I can’t see them relaeasing Pena-demoting maybe not release that’s GMDM’s boy and admits failure
scutch says:

July 17th, 2008 at 6:01 pm

Great piece. Let’s consider something that is sure to blow the minds of the fan who believes that by putting all the average players on your team into a bundle will bring back a super star. What is Soria’s trade value now? Young, signed and a potential great closer for a decade, yes. Just what is that worth to a contender or a team on the verge of contention? 3 or 4 potential starters I would guess. Yes, closers are tough to get and blowing leads is demoralizing, but what are the needs of the Royals right now. Do you trust management to make such a deal? Soria is the chip, played at the right time that could change the course of this team for a long time.
Patek to Rojas to Mayberry says:

July 17th, 2008 at 6:16 pm

Clark - Loved the article. Very well thought out, well-written, informative, imaginative, realistic, and entertaining. I am very impressed.
Clark Fosler says:

July 17th, 2008 at 6:55 pm

Ewing - I almost put a major trade involving Hochevar and Dexter Fowler (AA-Rockies), but decided that it was too unlikely a scenario. Like you, I’d be tempted to test the waters with him, however.
Jon says:

July 17th, 2008 at 7:06 pm

Chaim,
That is indeed the son of that Royals All-Star 1st Baseman. He has a long swing and will stike out more than most, but the ball really flies off of his bat!
Paul says:

July 19th, 2008 at 6:24 am

I couldn’t disagree more about how most of the players in this piece are valued. Let me just ask this question: If we all know that Kyle Davies sucks and are dying to get rid of him, why wouldn’t everybody else know that? Your premise seems to be that the Rangers front office are morons. And you’re just misinformed about how they value Cruz. News reports have the entire front office huddled in prayer when they put him through waivers this spring. The odds of him being the next Ryan Ludwick are low, but he’s better than Mark Teahen now. And Jon Daniels knows that, so why would he just give away a player he believes in when he knows that player is an upgrade for us? Bill Bavasi is out of a job, so any other GM is simply going to reply, “Well, good luck with Teahen, I’ll take Cruz and Arias on my bench and bring up Doug Mathis or Michael Ballard, both of whom are better than Kyle Davies.” And why would Texas take a crappy 5th starter in an expansive stadium for a burgeoning power hitter in Mayberry? In their park they’re going to win with offense and they know that. Please stop the Davies-to-Texas for their best offensive prospect silliness.

As for Chris Carter, Theo astutely traded for him because he clearly has something in the bat. But he’s worth targeting because he’s projected as better than Shealy, Butler, or Kila? If he’s that good, then why are the Red Sox being linked to Texeira? Oh, and it might help to include the knock on Carter. A lot of scouts like his bat even though they don’t think he’ll hit for enough power for the position, but I don’t think I’ve ever seen a player’s defense more derided than Carter. Reports are it is laughable. Look it up.

The only realistic trades for this team this season are: Jimmy Gobble to a team who has the brains to use him as a lefty specialist only, which is what he is
at this point - this would resemble the Berroa for Juan Rivera deal; Grud to maybe the Brewers for a guy like Brad Nelson (there’s your journeyman 1B) who they truly have no use for even after they dealt LaPorta; German to the Cardinals as insurance for Glaus’s knees and as a pinch hitter for low upside, speedy CF Shane Robinson.
Big Lee says:

July 21st, 2008 at 3:50 am

Paul-I think you’re a little harsh, but pretty accurate. Still, it’s fun to consider these things around the trade deadline.

The Royals seem to have really dumped on Gobble, to the point that now we’re abusing our bullpen to keep him on the roster. That makes no sense. Let’s use him more, or get rid of him.

How do you guys feel about Bannister to Omaha, to work out his problems? Star reports he still has options, and H. Ramirez was a starter. Would be nice to have a lefty in rotation, and he wasn’t too bad with Seattle. May only be an end of rotation guy, but lets kick the tires on this guy while Banny gets it figured out.
Clark Fosler says:

July 21st, 2008 at 5:32 am

Paul - I may be confused, but I didn’t project trading Kyle Davies to the Rangers. I offered and was rejected. As for Carter, his weaknesses are exactly the reason I think the Red Sox would trade him for a 38 year old lefty reliever. He likely is an upgrade over any first basemen on our roster and the price of Mahay, in my opinion, is not that high.
Clark Fosler says:

July 21st, 2008 at 5:47 am

Oh, additionally Paul, I don’t believe the Rangers’ front office is morons, but I do believe that they think they are in contention for the playoffs. With a stocked outfield (and I believe you have overvalued thier perception of Nelson Cruz) and a tremendous talent at shortstop in AA, I think they might move both Arias and Cruz for help in the pen. Does Gobble and Blake Johnson get it done? Maybe not. Kyle Davies? Maybe not, but improving the Rangers rotation (short term mind you) does not require a particularly good talent at this point.

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