Royals Authority

Back on the Rollercoaster

By Clark Fosler | July 24th, 2008

As I wrote on Monday morning, it is easy to attach too much significance to the results of a baseball series. Since then, I have spent three days in a waterpark and one night at Kaufmann Stadium (which seemed very similar to the waterpark, by the way) and awake this morning feeling equally as bad about the Royals as I felt good about them on Monday. Who wrote that sentence? Tim McCarver?

Deep down, however, we all know that as bad as the Detroit series was, it does not signal that the entire building for the future endeavour has been derailed. Not any more than winning two out of three at Chicago just prior to that was a sign that the endeavour was complete and the Royals were ready to compete. Okay, who wrote THAT sentence? Jesse Jackson?

If Kansas City can manage to split with Tampa Bay the would finish 4-6 in their first ten games after the All-Star Break. Considering that the Royals will have faced two division leaders and a team in the Tigers that is 12 games over .500 since the second week in the season, that mark is not all that bad. Still, there are some problems that do not seem to be going away.

Alex Gordon and those troubling southpaws
With a line of .186/.276/.212, Alex Gordon is simply getting destroyed by lefthanded pitching. The odd thing is that Gordon’s strikeout and walk rates are not all that different than what he does versus right handed pitching. Simply put, it is not lack of contact, but more ‘bad’ contact that is doing Alex in. He has just three extra base hits in 127 plate appearances versus lefties compared to 31 in 290 plate appearances against right handers.

Here is the quandry: if you platoon him with, say, Esteban German, then how will he ever learn to hit lefties? Secondly, if you send Gordon to AAA, will he face the kind of lefthanded stuff that will allow him the opportunity to succeed against major league southpaws?

More than anything, I believe Gordon’s struggles against lefties is the most glaring result of his inability or refusal to use the left side of a baseball field. If it was up to me (and strangely it seems that it is not), I would focus on getting Alex to go the opposite way with some authority and consistency before working on his high strikeout totals.

Will the bubble ever burst for Mike Aviles?
After he doubled in the first inning on Tuesday night, I turned to my wife and said “If he keeps doing this for another month, I’m going to start believing this is for real.” The question is: can he?

The Royals’ shortstop has been great so far, with a line of .321/.351/.506 and at least passable defense. The warning sign is Mike’s .353 batting average on balls in play (.300 is roughly the league average). Now, some guys simply hit the ball for a higher BABIP than the league average. David DeJesus, for example, has logged a BABIP of .320 or greater in four of his five seasons, so it is plausible that Aviles might not regress to the league average, but he almost certainly will regress at least part of the way there.

The good news: Aviles could drop to a BABIP of .310 and still be a .280 hitting middle infielder with pop.

I’m Not Going to Panic About the Rotation just yet.
Although maybe I should. With five bad starts in their first six games back from the break, the starting rotation has certainly been disappointing. Still, this is the same group that at times has been a strength for the Royals and is essentially a rookie, three guys in basically their third year and Gil Meche.

Tonight, the Royals send out the aforementioned Meche, and the team has won six of the last seven games he has started. Additionally, another reason for hope is that Zack Greinke retired nine of the last ten batters he faced yesterday; six of them on strikeouts.

To Trade of Not to Trade?
Rany over at Rany On The Royals made a case that trading Ron Mahay would send a bad message to possible future free agent signees. That makes some sense, but I think trading Mahay would have far less of a ripple effect amongst the rank and file than trading a Jose Guillen or Gil Meche might cause. In the end, everyone pretty much views middle relievers and even setup men as somewhat interchangeable and probably would not view the trading of Mahay so early in a free agent contract as that big a deal.

It will be interesting to see just how much or how little Dayton Moore does at the trading deadline this year. Are his comments that the Royals might not do anything just a ruse to up the price on some of his veterans or the actual sentiments of the organization? If you could trade Mahay for two ‘B type’ prospects in AA or High A would you do it?

About Those Lineups
Everyone has their own lineup that will be sure to make the Royals better. Heck, I offer up one a couple of times per year. Tired of all the ‘lineup talk’? Well, you can lump Trey Hillman in with that group, too, as the Royals have used six different lineups in their six games since coming back from the All Star Break. In fact, only Mike Aviles has started every game since the break at the same position and in the same spot in the batting order.

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17 Responses to “Back on the Rollercoaster”

Rob says:

July 24th, 2008 at 8:10 am

The Detroit series was depressing. It was only 3 games, but it feels like the Royals are in a much longer slump.

Can we blame the hitting coach on Gordon and Butlers’ weak seasons? We were all asking for him to be fired a while back during the losing streak. But seriously, how much of it is Butler and Gordon being young, and how much of it is the coaches not recognizing mistakes soon enough and offering up constructive advice on how to make improvements?

Aviles has been incredible. I can’t believe he’s hitting so well still. We haven’t had much luck with call-ups, and Aviles wasn’t hyped up at all. He just came and he played. No hype and no expectations with him. What a nice surprise!
Ryan Brown says:

July 24th, 2008 at 8:36 am

What I find most depresssing is the way we lost - like no one cared one bit that the team was getting shellacked. Trey Hillman called his team “lethargic” - they almost looked “hungover”.

We’ve gotten our tails kicked, lost heartbreakers and everything in between. Personally, I would rather have a team go down fighting than roll over and die like they did the past 72 hours.

RB

www.mvn.com/nfl-chiefs
Mark LaFlamme says:

July 24th, 2008 at 9:22 am

I agree with Ryan here. In some earlier losses, the offense kept battling back into the late innings in spite of ugliness on the scoreboard. There was no sense of battle at all in the Royals series, defensively or at the plate. How do you explain something like that so soon after the break? It’s as though collectively, the team suffers some psychiatric disorder.
Teahan is killing me. He looks like a righty trying to bat left most of the time. Typically, he comes through with some dramatic, late-inning poke (inside-the-park homer against the Loathe Sox!) to win us back. It’s been a long time, though.
steve y says:

July 24th, 2008 at 9:41 am

Do not have the feeling this team is really headed in the right direction, at least a part of that is management, we all see reasons why we are better than in the past, but only 1 or 2 games better than last year, there are some big problems, and the recent lack of fight indicates that perhaps the management is not right. Starters regressing, Gordon not improving, Teahan not major league average and Maier looking good, Gload not major league average and taking away valuable fielding experience from Butler, there are some real mistakes being made by Tridiot MoleHillmand and GMDM that we have to hope are going to be corrected fairly soon. Things like sending Gobble out to slaughter, Gordon out to 3rd to bobble double play when everyone (but Tridiot) knew that German deserved to be back out there after game winning hit, at some point there could be some permanent damage to some of these folks, not to mention our spirit as Royals fans.
Mark LaFlamme says:

July 24th, 2008 at 9:50 am

What’s the status on Collaspo? Man, I miss his pinch hit potential.
chad says:

July 24th, 2008 at 10:33 am

We have the same record we had last year. I am so pissed I have thrown all my pots and pans out in my yard. I am leaving them there, and I live on parvin road, so I can challenge the royal’s babies that I can pull their pants down and spank them like my own son. Mark Teahen want to stop by??? I will redden your bottom with my hand in front of my son and my neighbors, if you just look for the pots and pans on parvin road. Speaking of Teahen…Why is he still on our team? Gathright is nothing more than a pinch runner. Why not not have Costa and Maier playing. Isn’t Costa from the Bronx. Seems like those guys (aviles) have a little more grit than Teahen or Gordon.
Hey, I don’t mind Gordon as long as we know what he is. If the kid works hard and gets lucky maybe he is as good as Joe Randa. But any Royal’s fans thinking this guy is going to take us to the play-offs on his back is crazy.
Wouldn’t the Royals and billy butler both be better served if he were in triple aaa playing 1st? Or is butler that much of an upgrade on dh over olivo? thats supposed to be funny.

Everyone says our minor league system has pitching ? I don’t see it…I do see a slug of middle infielders from aa (kila, maddux, lucas, lisson) thru wilmington(Mertins, bianchi, johnson, McConnel) all the way to burlington (moustakis,Giaovolti, martin) though. It doesn’t seem like we really have any pitching until you get to burlington. I know everyone thinks dan Cortes is the bomb…I will believe it when I see it. Will be interesting if next year we fill up our aaa team with organizational players or cast offs from other places.
Jon says:

July 24th, 2008 at 11:06 am

Did anyone else notice that Baseball America now is considering Kila a prospect on their daily prospect update? Will mean that the Royals will start to view him as a prospect?

Chad, once again, nice rant! I don’t think anyone here would tell you that the system is loaded at the AA and AAA levels with pitching prospects, however there are 2 legit prospects at these levels in Cortes and Rosa. I would disagree with you on the position player propsects. I just don’t see them.

I think it has become abundantly clear that Mike Barnett, though he is probably incredibly smart about hitting, does not have what it takes to get these young guys to listen to him. I personally think that has more to do with the mentallity of Butler and Gordon than it has to do with Barnett. Dejesus seems to have responded to Barnett, Grud has maintained his consistancy. Guillen is still Guillen. Aviles has made adjustments. Some credit has to be given to Barnett for that.

I remember that there were complaints in Spring Training that Gordon was unwilling to make changes. I believe that he would not listen to George Brett of all people. That says a lot about Gordon’s character. This guy seems to be a know-it-all. I have lost faith in him at this point. I don’t know if the Royals have thought of this, but when Gordon takes BP they should have Gobble be the pitcher throwing to him.
Doug says:

July 24th, 2008 at 12:47 pm

I think it says something that the Royals have sent Joe Randa to Burlington to help Moustakas learn how to play 3rd base. I really hoped Gordon would be an impact player but I am just not seeing it at this point. I wonder if GMDM would have drafted him if he were on the job.
Ryan Brown says:

July 24th, 2008 at 1:10 pm

Sweet - Gaithright’s going on the DL, and the Royals recalled Mitch Maier to take his roster spot.

Give the kids a chance - and leave Joey on the DL for a long, long time.

RB
scutch says:

July 24th, 2008 at 2:38 pm

Get Gordon to Kevin Seitzer as quickly as possible. In one month (if Gordon was receptive) the improvement would be remarkable, ask Ibanez. In fact, why isn’t KS the Royal’s hiitting coach? That works on many levels.
Big Lee says:

July 24th, 2008 at 4:45 pm

I loved Seitz as a player, but his go as hitting instructor in Arizona went poorly. Let him ply his craft in the minors before we give him a chance with the big club, although he probably wouldn’t do any harm.

On Rany’s comment about trading: Wouldn’t Mahay rather be pitching for a team with a chance at a championship ring rather than in KC? Sure, he doesn’t want to be sent to the Astros, who somehow believe they are still in the hunt. If Mahay came to KC for midwestern values or something like that, then Royals might put more stock in that contention. But I assume that most players would rather be in a playoff hunt than laboring for a team that is baffling to say the least. Prospective free agents would see that logic, wouldn’t they?
Craig Brown says:

July 24th, 2008 at 7:20 pm

Mark - I haven’t heard a thing about Callaspo. I don’t think the Royals even know.

Chad - Breaking out the spanking machine! Nice.

Scutch - I’ll echo Big Lee and say I’m skeptical about Seitzer. His crash and burn in Arizona was very strange.
Clark Fosler says:

July 25th, 2008 at 6:41 am

Just speculation here, but I wonder if Callaspo is in a treatment program somewhere. If so, that’s pretty much a month long thing, then at least several weeks of working out before he would be back in baseball shape.
Big Lee says:

July 25th, 2008 at 6:46 am

That sounds about right, Clark. Hopefully Callaspo will get his issues under control; we knew there were problems when he was with Arizona. His absence is definitely worthwhile if he comes back “healthy.”. Perhaps he will return to KC by Sept. 1, by which time we will have our Gordian Knot of middle infielders resolved.

Pena’s pitching outing was even getting some love from Jayson Stark this morning at ESPN.
Clark Fosler says:

July 25th, 2008 at 8:06 am

I hate to sound like an idiot, Lee, but is there a reason a team could not carry a backup shortstop/relief pitcher? Of course, way back when (I’m talking junior high), I once came in from second base to pitch a 1-2-3 inning. Next time out: seven runs in 2/3 rds of an inning. Sadly, by the time I was a senior, I also sported a Penaesque batting line.
Big Lee says:

July 25th, 2008 at 10:54 am

Clark-I don’t think you sound like an idiot. One of the things (many things, actually) that drove me nuts about Buddy Bell was all this talk of knowing your role. I’m sorry, but these guys are paid enough money for playing a child’s game that they can be mentally flexible. And the spot you’re describing is probably the 25th guy on the roster. Do you keep Peralta up (whose a former infielder) or Pena? If you’re in the National League, I think there’s no question that the last guy on the bench has to be flexible. Another poster mentioned something about Maier’s position flexibiltiy. I hope Maier can be more than a 25th guy, but when you’re a small market team, you need to think out of the box. I sorry for the length of this rant. I actually deleted quite a bit.
David Pressgrove says:

July 25th, 2008 at 11:50 am

I heard Frank White on a telecast say that when he was the coach in Wichita they made Alex hit the ball to the left side 25 times in batting practice before he could do anything else. The Royals know what the deal is with his struggles. I just wonder if it’s his stubbornness like what was hinted at in earlier posts.

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Clark Fosler

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