MVN - Most Valuable Network

2008 Breakout Candidate #4: Ryan Zimmerman

This is the fourth of a five-column series on players that I expect to enjoy a breakout campaign in 2008. To see any of the first three 2008 Breakout Candidate columns, click on the name of the player: Dustin McGowan, Stephen Drew, Chad Billingsley.

Of the top five picks in the 2005 amateur draft, three were third-basemen: Alex Gordon (2nd overall), Ryan Zimmerman (4th overall), and Ryan Braun (5th overall).

Though Gordon and Braun were believed to have more offensive upside, Zimmerman was described by one scout as “the best defender I’ve ever seen,” and widely considered the most polished of the trio. The University of Virginia standout made quick work of the minors, reaching The Show as a late-season call-up in his first professional season, and turning many a head by batting .397/.419/.569 in 58 at-bats after the promotion. Now that’s a rapid return on investment!

Entering the 2006 season as Washington’s starting third-baseman, the then 21 year-old Zimmerman rewarded the Nationals with a .287/.351/.471 performance at the plate, coupled with expectedly excellent defense at the hot corner. Not surprisingly, many likened Zimmerman to the Mets’ David Wright, citing his fine approach at the plate and his top-notch glove.

Meanwhile, Gordon and Braun — drafted by the Royals and Brewers, respectively — took their time coming up the minor league ladder, reaching the big leagues in 2007. Gordon struggled at times to make the adjustment to big league pitching, batting .247 with a .725 OPS in his freshman year, but Braun soon became known as The Hebrew Hammer, posting a gaudy .324/.370/.634 line with 34 homers in his first 451 at-bats, and winning the NL Rookie of the Year Award in spite of his horrendous defense.

Unfortunately, Zimmerman took a step back in 2007, regressing to .266/.330/.458, and failing to live up to the hype that surrounded him after his terrific 2006 campaign. He was far from a dud for the Nationals, still contributing 24 homers and 43 doubles while playing solid defense, but Zimmerman’s 26 double-play grounders embodied the frustration he endured while suffering the effects of the notorious sophomore slump.

His troubles at the plate last season notwithstanding, if I were building a team and had to pick one of the aforementioned three to be my starting third-baseman, I would take the young man from Sandtucket — and not because he has a pizza named after him.

Rather, it’s because I firmly believe that Ryan Zimmerman will be among the most valuable players in the National League next season.

Zimmerman may not have had the offensive component in 2007, but his glove, as mentioned, was already as good as any. He compiled 21 FRAA (fielding runs above average) last season, while collecting 6.4 defensive Win Shares — more than any other third-baseman in the majors.

In 2008, Zimmerman should get his bat up to speed.

It’s easy to forget that Zimmerman is still just 23, and has less professional experience than just about every pitcher he faces. Zimmerman’s main flaw last season was his inability to hit right-handed pitchers; he hit just .235/.296/.399 against them, while mashing lefties to the ridiculous tune of .374/.443/.660. But neither Zimmerman’s minor league splits nor his 2006 splits were nearly as severe, so expect the former Commodore to bridge the gap between them next year, and thereby improve his overall numbers.

It’s also worth noting that Zimmerman showed signs of waking up from his hibernation after the All-Star Break last season, batting .282/.361/.486 following the ATT Park festivities. He hit .311 in July, and then posted a season-best .966 OPS in August, slugging seven homers toward his annual total of 24.

And Zimmerman will also get some help from his ballpark next season, as the Nationals leave the 27th-toughest batting environment in baseball (RFK Stadium) for Nationals Park, which figures to be much friendlier to right-handed power hitters like the third-baseman at hand.

Taking Zimmerman’s 2006 line — .287/.351/.471 with 20 homers and 47 doubles — and factoring in some improvement due to added experience, plus the move to a better hitters’ park, it’s not unfathomable that Zimmerman could bat .300/.380/.520 with roughly 30 homers and 40 doubles (assuming that the move ups his round-tripper total at the cost of a few two-baggers). That might represent a best-case scenario, but it’s not as out there as some may believe.

Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus writes, “David Wright might well have been the most valuable player in the National League last season; Zimmerman will be a better player than Wright in 2008.”

A bold statement, to be sure, but with Zimmerman’s potential, it’s not a ludicrous one.

This entry was posted on Saturday, January 26th, 2008 at 12:15 pm and is filed under Breakout Candidates, Baseballistic, Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.