MVN - Most Valuable Network

Ken Griffey, Jr.: What Might’ve Been

To say that Ken Griffey, Jr. has not enjoyed an illustrious major league career would be to tell a boldfaced lie. Since being drafted first-overall by the Seattle Mariners back in 1987, Griffey has tormented pitchers for nearly twenty seasons, amassing a .289/.374/.550 line in well over 10000 trips to the plate. Employing one of the sweetest left-handed swings the world has ever seen, Griffey has collected seven Silver Slugger awards, an MVP award, and thirteen All-Star Game selections. Toss in ten Gold Gloves for outstanding work in the outfield and you’ve got a surefire first-ballot Hall of Famer.

The latest of many milestones in Griffey’s career came on Monday night, in the first inning of a contest at Miami’s Dolphin Stadium. With Jerry Hairston, Jr. on first and one away in the opening frame, the Reds’ number-three hitter stepped into the box and took three consecutive balls from Marlins’ lefty Mark Hendrickson. Hairston, meanwhile, took full advantage of the defensive overshift put on by the Fish, stealing second and third on consecutive pitches. With the count at 3-0, Griffey stared at a tantalizingly hammer-able fastball down Main Street for strike one. The 3-1 offering, a hanging curveball that caught far too much of the inside half of the plate, was not so lucky. A picture-perfect swing sent the ball 412 feet down the right-field line, and the no-doubt-about-it shot became the 600th homerun of Griffey’s career. The 16,003 in attendance gave Griffey a standing ovation, asking for — and receiving — a curtain call, even though the historic blast had put their team in a 2-0 hole to start the contest.

Make room, Barry, Hank, Babe, Willie, and Sammy — the exclusive 600 club has a new member.

But as Griffey and the Reds celebrate his phenomenal accomplishment, one can’t help but wonder what might have been if injuries had not taken their toll.

Though Griffey was among the most durable players in baseball from 1989 through 1993, after nearly committing suicide and breaking a bone in his right hand in a shower mishap during his minor league days, he missed significant time in 1995 and has been among the most fragile position players in the league since the turn of the century. Multiple hamstring tears, a dislocated kneecap, and a dislocated shoulder have sent Junior to the disabled list time after time. He missed at least 30 games in every season from 2001 through 2006, and played in a total of just 206 games from 2002 through 2004.

Just how much did Griffey miss out on during his time on the shelf? Some rough math (figuring conservatively at 525 at-bats per full season) reveals that Griffey lost about 1200 at-bats to injury over that ailment-filled six-year span, an alarming total that’s equal to about 13 percent of the 9000-plus at-bats Griffey has had in his career.

Assuming that Griffey’s career HR-rate of 1-per-15.06 at-bats had continued during that stretch, he would’ve mashed 80 long-balls, which means that he would have been chasing 700 this season instead of 600. Factoring in the probable toll that these numerous injuries have taken on Griffey even during his time on the field, and the likelihood that they’ve accelerated his decline phase, it’s not unlikely that he’d be at 700 already. Which means that Griffey would be chasing the Babe, and possibly breathing down Hank Aaron’s neck by season’s end or in 2009.

Back in 1987, a scout aptly remarked about Junior, “If you thought Barry Bonds was interesting, wait until you see this kid.” Had he been healthier, and if he had decided to play into his forties, Griffey would’ve had a very real chance to put himself atop the career homerun leaderboard. He would also have had a decent shot of collecting 3000 hits, and adding another Gold Glove or two to his stockpile.

Again, the estimates are rough and the math is laced with assumptions. But the fact of the matter is, if injuries hadn’t taken their toll, Griffey’s already amazing career would have been immensely better.

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TUESDAY TRIVIA

Tuesday Trivia is a new feature on The MLB Source (shamelessly stolen from Fire Brand) that will run at the bottom of every Tuesday column. Each Tuesday, you’ll find the trivia question for the current week, and the answer to the previous week’s question. Answer in the comments, and feel free to guess (limit two per person), but do not violate the honor code.

The person who correctly answers the most questions before the end of the season will win an as-of-yet-undetermined prize, and smaller prizes will be awarded throughout the season, such as guest columns and the opportunity to create polls. A “Trivia Leaderboard” page will be available starting next week.

This week’s question is: What is “The Junior Operation”?

To earn a point for answering this question correctly, you must provide both a description of “The Junior Operation” and name its inventor. There is no honor code for this question, so search engines and the like are fair game. The first person to come up with the correct answer will get to choose the poll question for next Friday, June 20th.

This entry was posted on Tuesday, June 10th, 2008 at 12:52 am and is filed under Baseballistic, Ken Griffey Jr., Cincinnati Reds. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.