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Yankees purchase contract of OF Gardner; Option OF Christian to AAA

New York Yankees

Purchsed the contract of OF Brett Gardner from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre; optioned OF Justin Christian to Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.

TG Analysis

A 5-10, 180 pound waterbug, Gardner provides on-base ability (career minor league OBP: .388), range to cover the gaps and a good set of wheels that make him a high-percentage base stealer (83%). A third round selection out of Charleston in the 2005 Amateur Draft, Gardner was hitting .286/.402/.424 at AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. The 24 year-old’s biggest hindrance remains his total lack of power. Gardner has a career slugging percentage of .385, with a .097 Isolated Power number. Also of concern with Gardner is an increased strikeout rate in AAA; he whiffed in roughly 13-15% if his at-bats prior to AAA, but that rate has increased to about 20% in Scranton.

Sometimes a player like Gardner, who possesses a good eye but little sock, will see his walk rate decline in the big leagues as pitchers realize there is little incentive to pitch so selectively; the worst that can happen is a single, so why mess around? A good recent example of this phenomenon is Houston center fielder Michael Bourn. Bourn had a healthy minor league OBP (.377) but little ability to drive the ball (.108 ISO), and has seen his walk rate decline to 7.4% in 2008 while hitting just .232/.286/.310. In fact, Gardner’s most comparable player according to Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA system is none other than Bourn.  

While Gardner may get an occasional start and pinch-run appearance with Hideki Matsui ailing, the more operative long-term question is, who is patrolling center field for the Yankees in 2009 and beyond? Incumbent Melky Cabrera does not seem especially popular right now, but it is important to keep in mind that Cabrera is actually a year younger than Gardner and has managed to keep his head above water in the majors (career .269/.334/.380 line) at an age when most players are toiling in Double A or Triple A. 

Also, while Melky’s 2008 line is tepid (.244/.306/.350), he has been the recipient of some bad luck on balls in play (.263 BABIP). Generally speaking, a player’s expected BABIP is their Line Drive Percentage (LD%) + .120. Cabrera’s LD% is 19%, meaning his expected BABIP comes in at around .310 (.190+.120). If we adjust his BABIP to its expected level, Cabrera’s line is now .291/.353/.397, and that’s assuming all the additional hits were singles.

Both players have warts (Gardner’s lack of pop, Cabrera’s questionable range and mild power) which call into question their ability handle the rigors of playing every day for a championship-caliber organization. Might the Yankees merely have two very good fourth outfielders who hold the fort down until 21 year-old Austin Jackson (.272/.351/.433 in AA) arrives? Stay tuned.

This entry was posted on Tuesday, July 1st, 2008 at 7:03 am and is filed under Brett Gardner, Yankees, Melky Cabrera. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.