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Dodgers activate “SS” Garciaparra, OF Jones

Los Angeles Dodgers

Reinstated INF Nomar Garciaparra from the 60-day disabled list; Reinstated OF Andruw Jones from the 15-day disabled list; Optioned OF Jason Repko to Triple-A Vegas; Placed INF Mark Sweeney on the 15-day disabled list with a strained right hamstring; Transferred INF Rafael Furcal from the 15-day disabled list to the 60-day disabled list.

TG Analysis

In an effort to stimulate its flailing offense (29th in team Equivalent Average, 27th in Runs Scored, 27th in SLG%), the Dodgers will party like it’s 1999, welcoming back former famous guys Garciaparra and Jones.

Nomar will apparently man the shortstop position, a symptom of just how desperate LA is at a premium spot. With Chin Lung Hu having earned a one-way ticket back to Las Vegas (.159/.222/.206 in 121 PA for the Dodgers) and Angel Berroa (.194/.250/.226 in 68 PA) making the Orioles’ shortstop options look downright appetizing, the Dodgers turn to Garciaparra because, well, who else is there? Unfortunately for all parties involved, there is pretty much zero chance of this experiment ending happily. Last we saw Nomar at short the year was 2005, and the results were grisly; Garciaparra posted a 96 Rate (100 is average), which was actually an improvement over his work in 2004 (92 Rate), the year in which the Red Sox famously discarded him mid-season. 34 years old and perpertually day-to-day (a calf injury has slowed him this year), Nomar fields like a first baseman and hits like a shortstop (.283/.328/.371 in 2007). That is not a pleasant combination.

Jones is something more of a mystery. Yes, he had a down season in 2007 relative to his past performance (.222/.312/.413), but there were reasons to expect the 31 year-old to bounce back in 2008. Jones had an extremely low .248 Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP). An expected BABIP for a hitter is the player’s Line Drive Rate (LD%) plus .120. Jones’ LD% was 17, so his expected BABIP came in at around .290 (.170+.120). Adding in the additional 42 points of average, we find that Jones “should” have hit around .264/.354/.455 in 2007.

However, instead of bouncing back, Jones performed even worse in ‘08 (.159/.268/.258 in 153 PA) before being sidelined with a knee injury that required surgery. Jones’ strikeout rate, gradually increasing over the years, skyrocketed to nearly 30%:

Year       K%

05         16.7

06         19.1

07         20.8

08         29.4

If the Dodgers are going to score enough runs to complement its stellar pitching (3.68 team ERA) and capture an eminently winnable NL West Division, then Jones will need to regain his stroke and become a reasonable approximation of his former self. As for Garciaparra? Well, don’t give your hopes up.

This entry was posted on Friday, July 4th, 2008 at 4:18 pm and is filed under Andruw Jones, Nomar Garciaparra, Dodgers. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.