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TG Analysis: The Sabathia Deal

Cleveland Indians

Acquired Minor League OF Matt LaPorta, LHP Zach Jackson, Minor League RHP Rob Bryson and a player to be named for LHP CC Sabathia.

In a trade involving a player the magnitude of C.C. Sabathia, it is easy to get caught up in the name value of the player and therefore expect the Indians to receive the keys to the Milwaukee farm system. While losing a home-grown ace is surely a tough pill to swallow for the Tribe, it is important to keep in mind what exactly Cleveland was offering: namely, a 3-month rental of Sabathia, an exlusive negotiating window to work out a deal before free agency hits, and compensatory draft picks, should the big lefty take his services elsewhere this winter.

As such, one cannot really compare Cleveland’s haul to, say, what the A’s received in exchange for Dan Haren (under contract at a below-market salary through 2010) or even what the Twins picked up for a full year of Johan Santana. Hindsight being 20/20, it is easy (and completely unfair) to say that the Indians should have began shipping Sabathia’s services around prior to this point, but Clevaland came into the season with legitimate designs on an extended playoff run. A combination of injury (Victor Martinez, Fausto Carmona), decline (Hafner, though he could fit into both categories) and some poor luck (Cleveland’s Pythagorean record is 43-45; its actual record is 37-51) have conspired to wreak havoc on Cleveland’s playoff chances.

With an unexpectedly poor first half and only a faint glimmer of a chance to re-sign Sabathia (if that), the Indians essentially had to choose between letting C.C. play out the string in Cleveland while collecting a couple of draft picks, or bidding the 27 year-old farewell for a package of its own choosing. Given those two choices, it appears as though the Tribe should be relatively pleased with its bounty.

Matt LaPorta, 23, is without question the principal player in the deal from Cleveland’s vantage point. The 6-2, 215 pounder had a down season as a junior at the University of Florida, suffering through an oblique injury that caused his draft stock to drop. The Red Sox selected him as a 14th rounder in the 2006 Amateur Draft, but LaPorta spurned the Sox and returned for his senior season.  A rare college senior selected highly in the draft, LaPorta was picked 7th overall out of Florida by the Brewers in the 2007 Amateur Draft following a monster campaign. The righthanded hitter has done nothing but mash as a professional, compiling a career .294/.395/.616 minor league line in 411 at-bats, including a colossal .291/.404/. 584 line with 20 home runs at AA Huntsville in 2008. With a patient approach (13 BB% in ‘08), light-tower pop (.288 ISO) and a reasonable strikeout rate for a big slugger (17.1 K%), LaPorta’s bat will play very well at the highest level. His other tools are nothing to write home about: a below average runner with limited range, LaPorta was playing left field more out of deference to Prince Fielder’s grip on first base than anything else. Don’t be surprised to see LaPorta mashing at Jacobs Field by the end of the season, quite possibly with a move down the defensive spectrum to first base.

Rob Bryson, 20, is a long way from the big leagues, but the righthander may well be the second most valuable commodity in Cleveland’s trade bounty. The 6-1, 200 pounder was a shrewd signing by Milwaukee, who selected Bryson as a draft-and-follow in the 31st round of the 2006 Amateur Draft. The Brewers eventually coaxed Bryson to sign for $300K, and the early results are rather impressive. Equipped with a low-90’s heater and a solid slider, Bryson has racked up 143 punchouts in 109 career innings split between Rookie-Level Helena and Low-A West Virginia. In 55 frames for the Power this season, the Seminole Community College alum has posted a 4.25 ERA with a 73/20 K/BB. As is the case with many young arms, Bryson has work to do with his changeup and must prove himself durable, but he has a nice base of skills to grow upon.

Zach Jackson, 25, has gone from well-regarded pitching prospect to a fringe major leaguer over the past few seasons. Originally selected by the Toronto Blue Jays in the first round of the 2004 draft, Jackson was shipped to Milwaukee as part of the Lyle Overbay trade in December of 2005. The 6-5, 200 pound lefty performed admirably in the low minors, but his showings at AAA over the past few seasons inspire little confidence. In 380.1 career innings at the AAA level, Jackson has posted a 4.95 ERA, with 6.5 K/9 and 3.87 BB/9. 2008 has been something of a nightmare for the Louisville/Texas A&M product: in 57.1 innings pitched for Nashville, Jackson has a Boeing-level 7.85 ERA and a 34/18 K/BB. With a modest fastball, ordinary command and only slight groundball tendencies, Jackson’s best hope is to become as a long reliever/12th man on a major league staff.

While the player-to-be-named later is unknown at this point, popular sentiment points to either third base prospect Taylor Green or outfield prospect Michael Brantley.

Green, 21, was also a product of the now defunct draft-and follow system, snatched up by the Brewers in the 25th round of the 2005 draft. Green has posted a .295/.378/.444 line at High-A Brevard County in 2008. The 5-10, 180 pounder has only modest power and is just adequate at third, but his plate discipline and contact skills give him a chance to carve out a Bill Mueller-type career.

Brantley, 21, is a lefty hitter who can draw a walk and put the bat on the ball. A 7th round selection on the 2005 draft, Brantley is hitting .324/.403/.412 at AA Huntsville. His control of the strike zone is impressive (12.4 BB%, 5.1 K%), but Brantley’s lack of power (.088 ISO) is concerning, given that his above-average athleticism just hasn’t translated to the field. If Brantley can’t stick in center (his routes are often inauspicious), then he profiles as merely a good fourth outfielder at the highest level.

All things considered, the Indians did fairly well to acquire a blue-chip, MLB-ready slugger and some other relatively interesting youngsters. Cleveland likely received more value out of this deal than the team would have by standing pat and collecting two draft picks, and that’s all that really matters in the end.

Of course, the decision to deal a certified ace begs the question, what’s next? Have the Indians come to the conclusion that its window of opportunity has closed, and will therefore offer up other players as well?

That seems unlikely. The Indians are typically considered a youthful team, but outside of Grady Sizemore (25), many of Cleveland’s core players are currently in their primes: Cliff Lee (29), Jake Westbrook (30, rehabbing from Tommy John), Jhonny Peralta (26), Ben Francisco (26), Victor Martinez (27) and Travis Hafner (31). Given that state of affairs, the more likely scenario involves the 2009 Tribe hoping for improved health from Carmona, inserting LaPorta into the lineup and perhaps using some of the C.C. Fund to add another starter or add more punch to a rather listless lineup. In terms of further July dealings, the Indians may ship out four corners man Casey Blake to give Andy Marte one last chance to reclaim his former promise, and may also look to flip Paul Byrd for a B-level prospect and open up a rotation spot for someone like lefty David Huff, but I wouldn’t expect a 2001-style cleanout.

Milwaukee Brewers

Acquired LHP CC Sabathia from the Indians for Minor League OF Matt LaPorta, LHP Zach Jackson, Minor League RHP Rob Bryson and a player to be named.

With Carsten Charles Sabathia now in the fold, the Brewers have tremendously improved its chances of reaching the playoffs for the first time since 1982. The 27 year-old lefty has been as dominant as ever in 2008, save for a few particularly nasty starts that have skewed his overall numbers; Sabathia’s Fielding Independent ERA (FIP) is 3.25 in ‘08, as opposed to 3.22 during his Cy Young Award-winning 2007 campaign. The 6-7, 275 pounder fools many a batter with his dastardly fastball-slider combo, mixing in a decent changeup from time to time. With a 92-95 MPH heater and pinpoint command, Sabathia is death on southpaws (.244/.304/.274), and it’s not like righthanders have much of any success either (.251/.315/.390).

In Sabathia, the Brewers acquire one of the top-5 starters in the game. Coupled with righthander Ben Sheets, Milwaukee possess a formidable 1-2 punch of power and precision, one that matches up against any team in baseball. Add in an offense that is starting to perform up to its talent level (team OPS by month: .710 April, .741 May, .798 June, .953 July and an improving Manny Parra (2.59 ERA in June), and one could make an argument that the Brewers are the second best team in the National League. Of course, the bullpen could use some reinforcements as well: the Brew Crew ‘pen ranks just 19th in team Adjusted Runs Prevented.

While the Brewers are clearly gunning for a pennant in the present, the contract statuses of both Sabathia and Sheets present the organization with something of a safety net, as both will undoubtedly qualify as Type-A Free Agents this upcoming offseason. With an impressive offensive nucleus (and don’t forget remaining prospects Alcides Escobar, Matt Gamel and Brett Lawrie), talented pre-arbitration arms (Parra, a rehabbing Yovanni Gallardo) and a bushel of compensatory picks to come should to team fail to re-up Sabathia and/or Sheets, the Brewers are in a position to have the best of both worlds by winning now and winning later.

This entry was posted on Monday, July 7th, 2008 at 4:00 pm and is filed under Taylor Green, Rob Bryson, Michael Brantley, Zach Jackson, Matt LaPorta, Brewers, C.C. Sabathia, Indians. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.